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☆ India inflation seen easing in March on softening food price rises: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Data due at 1200 GMT, April 12BENGALURU, April 6 (Reuters) - India's consumer inflation likely eased in March to 5.80% thanks to softer food price rises, dipping below the Reserve Bank of India's upper tolerance limit for the first time this year, a Reuters poll of economists found. Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket, is expected to have moderated due to falling vegetable prices, offset in part by surging cereal prices. If realised, this would be the only month this year so far inflation is reported below the 6.00% RBI upper tolerance limit. But with oil prices having surged more than 20% from their recent lows, fuel is likely to push inflation back up again. Inflation was expected to average 5.2% in the current fiscal year, well above the medium-term target of 4.0%, according to a separate Reuters poll.

☆ Indian rupee set to weaken further in coming months: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BENGALURU, April 5 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee, one of the worst-performing Asian currencies last year, will fall further in the coming months and is expected to drift back to trade around where it is now in 12 months, according to a Reuters poll of FX strategists. Median forecasts from 40 respondents to a March 31-April 4 Reuters poll showed the rupee trading at 82.40/dollar by the end of the month and 82.55/dollar by the end of June. However, a fifth of respondents forecast the currency will change hands at 82.90/dollar or weaker as early as next month. A strong majority of poll respondents who answered an additional question, 13 of 16, said risks to their forecast were skewed towards the rupee being even weaker over the next month. "A key driver of the Indian rupee will continue to be the RBI's FX intervention strategy," noted Lin Li, head of global markets research Asia at MUFG.

☆ RBA to hike rates 25 bps on April 4 but decision on a knife edge
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Shaloo Shrivastava | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BENGALURU, March 31 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank is expected to go for a final 25 basis point interest rate hike to 3.85% on Tuesday, although forecasts from economists polled by Reuters suggest the decision on whether to hike or hold rates is on a knife edge. However, eight of the 13 economists expecting a pause pencilled in a rate hike sometime in the second quarter. Although CBA and Westpac forecast a pause in April, they expect one more rate hike in the second quarter. Minutes from the March meeting showed RBA board members reconsidered the case for a pause at the following meeting, noting monetary policy was already in restrictive territory and the economic outlook was uncertain. Although the median forecast showed the cash rate would remain at 3.85% until the end of 2023, five economists predicted it to peak at 4.10%.

☆ RBI to raise rates once more on April 6 but leave door open for more - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A majority of economists in the March 23-28 Reuters poll also said the RBI would then keep the rate steady for the rest of the year. A majority of respondents, 20 of 36, said the central bank would maintain its withdrawal of accommodation stance at the April meeting. Until that is behind us, the RBI probably will not be very comfortable in signalling that they are done with rate hikes," said QuantEco's Kumar. In last month's poll, all economists said the bigger risk was it would be higher than they predicted. The Indian economy was forecast to grow 6.9% this fiscal year and then slow to 6.0% in the next.

☆ India current account deficit likely narrowed to 2.7% of GDP in Q4
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The median forecast of 22 economists polled March 16-23 showed a current account deficit of $23.0 billion in October-December 2022, or 2.7% of gross domestic product (GDP). More than half of the expected narrowing is due to a reduction in the goods trade deficit, suggesting weakening domestic demand in Asia's third-largest economy. India's merchandise trade deficit shrank to $72.79 billion last quarter, compared to $78.32 billion in July-September, according to ministry of commerce data. These are the two reasons why we are seeing that the (current account deficit) numbers are better." A separate Reuters poll of economists who had a longer-term view forecast the current account gap to average 3.0% of GDP this fiscal year before shrinking to 2.6% in the next.

☆ Global house prices set to extend declines, risk of more with higher rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Predicted drops in house prices in the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany, Australia and New Zealand will come off price surges of as much as 50% since the start of the pandemic in 2020. House prices in Canada and New Zealand, which began to fall last year, were forecast to register a peak-to-trough drop of at least 20%, the poll showed. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsDouble-digit falls from recent peaks were also predicted for Australia (16.0%), Germany (11.5%) and the U.S. (10.0%). Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsAmong the most commonly cited reasons for house prices to remain elevated were crimped supply, made worse during the pandemic, when construction activity came to a near-halt, and ever-rising demand. While India's housing market will remain resilient despite rising interest rates, home prices in Dubai were also predicted to rise steadily.

☆ Global house prices set to extend declines, risk of more with higher rates: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

☆ Bank of Korea to hold rates despite still high inflation: Reuters Poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BENGALURU (Reuters) - The Bank of Korea will hold its base interest rate at 3.50% on Thursday and for the rest of this year, suggesting its longest tightening cycle on record is over despite still high inflation, a Reuters poll of economists found. FILE PHOTO: The logo of the Bank of Korea is seen on the top of its building in Seoul, South Korea, July 14, 2016. All 42 economists polled Feb. 13-20 predicted no change to the 3.50% base rate, already the highest since late 2008, at the central bank’s Feb. 23 meeting. Only a few respondents expected rates to climb above 3.50% at some point this year, while nearly half expected at least one rate cut by year-end. “Towards the year-end, we expect inflation to converge towards the BOK’s medium-term goal, which would therefore open up the room for the BOK to start cutting rates to bring policy into more neutral territory,” Derrick Kam, Asia economist at Morgan Stanley, said.

☆ Bank of Korea to hold rates despite still high inflation - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies BOK to hold base rate at 3.50% at Feb. 23 meetingBENGALURU, Feb 21 (Reuters) - The Bank of Korea will hold its base interest rate at 3.50% on Thursday and for the rest of this year, suggesting its longest tightening cycle on record is over despite still high inflation, a Reuters poll of economists found. All 42 economists polled Feb. 13-20 predicted no change to the 3.50% base rate (KROCRT=ECI), already the highest since late 2008, at the central bank's Feb. 23 meeting. Only a few respondents expected rates to climb above 3.50% at some point this year, while nearly half expected at least one rate cut by year-end. We expect the first rate cut to materialise in 2024, when we expect inflation to settle around the 2% mark and the U.S. (Federal Reserve) to pivot." The BOK's stance differs from many other global central banks that are expected to carry on raising interest rates, including the Fed.

BENGALURU, Feb 7 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee, one of the worst-performing Asian currencies last year, is forecast to strengthen very little in coming months and still trade above the 80 per dollar mark a year from now, a Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists found. The risk, however, is if U.S. inflation does not fall as much as markets are hoping it does in coming months. Even if it's marginally higher than what the market is currently expecting ... that could lead to a brief dollar rally and pressure the rupee." The latest Reuters poll of 43 foreign exchange analysts, taken after the Feb. 1 budget, showed the rupee strengthening just over 1% to 81.75 per dollar in the next six months. (For other stories from the February Reuters foreign exchange poll:)Reporting by Devayani Sathyan and Anant Chandak; Polling by Madhumita Gokhale and Veronica Khongwir; Editing by Hari Kishan, Ross FinleyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ RBI to hike repo rate by 25 bps in Feb, ending tightening cycle: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Like many other major central banks, the RBI is expected to then pause, waiting for inflation to fall before considering a shift toward a stimulative stance as Asia's third-largest economy slows. More than three-quarters of economists, 40 of 52, expected the RBI to raise its key repo rate (INREPO=ECI) by 25 basis points to 6.50%, according to a Jan. 13-27 Reuters poll. "They (the RBI) need to pause at some point to see what exactly is the impact of the previous monetary tightening overall on growth and inflation. That is why I believe it is not premature for them to pause after 6.50%," said Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank. A deteriorating global economic outlook also suggests downgrades to India's outlook are likely in coming months.

☆ Gulf economies to slow this year on sluggish oil demand - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Crude oil prices, a major driver for Gulf economies, are down more than a third from last year's highs and were expected to remain under pressure this year over fears of a recession in major economies sapping demand. Overall growth in the six GCC economies was forecast to average 3.3% and 2.8% this year and next respectively, the Jan. 9-23 poll showed, down from 4.2% and 3.3% in the previous poll. Among other Gulf countries - Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain - growth was expected at 2.4%-2.7% for 2023. Despite lower oil GDP growth, non-oil growth was expected to remain resilient in 2023, economists in the survey said. Analysts expected continued current account surpluses for the main Gulf economies, based on relatively high oil prices.

☆ Thai c.bank to raise rates 25 bps, tourism to bolster growth: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Unlike its neighbours in Malaysia and Indonesia, The Bank of Thailand (BOT) is expected to keep tightening policy for awhile longer. Twenty-one of 23 economists polled by Reuters expected the BOT to raise its benchmark one-day repurchase rate (THCBIR=ECI) by 25 basis points (bps) to 1.50% on Jan. 25. This gives the BOT room to continue hiking rates, to continue anchoring inflation expectations." The poll median showed the central bank would then raise borrowing costs by another 25 bps, taking it to 2.00% by end-September. "The combination of improving growth prospects and still-elevated inflation gives the central bank room to continue reducing policy accommodation."

☆ South Korea's Q4 GDP likely shrank, hints at possible recession - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Veronica Dudei Maia Khongwir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Asia's fourth-largest economy is expected to have shrunk by a seasonally-adjusted 0.3% in the October-December quarter after growing 0.3% in the preceding period. All but one of 13 economists in the Jan. 16-19 Reuters poll forecast a contraction, with the other expecting growth to flatline. If realized, it would be the sharpest contraction since mid-2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic was cementing its grip on the world. On a year-on-year basis, gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew 1.5% in the fourth quarter, the median forecast of 21 economists showed, half the 3.1% growth in the third quarter. According to a separate Reuters poll, growth was forecast at 2.5% in 2022, slowing to 1.9% this year.

☆ Economists say BOJ's Amamiya is top governor candidate, tightening this week unlikely
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Of the 24 economists who replied to the Jan 5-12 poll, 16, or 67%, chose Amamiya as the most likely candidate to become the next BOJ governor. Four economists in the poll, or 17%, chose Nakaso, who is seen less dovish than Amamiya, as the most likely candidate. In a September poll that asked the same question, Amamiya and Nakaso received 61% and 33% of economists' votes, respectively. Five analysts expected the unwinding of easing to start in April, at the first BOJ meeting under the new governor. Elsewhere in the poll, 83% of economists said Japanese nominal wages were unlikely to outpace rising consumer prices in 2023.

☆ China growth seen rebounding to 4.9% in 2023, more stimulus on the cards: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"We expect economic activities and consumption to rebound strongly from March-April onwards, helped by post-COVID re-opening and release of excess savings," Tao Wang, chief China economist at UBS, said in a research note. Reuters GraphicsThe expected 2022 growth rate would be far below the official target of around of 5.5%. China is likely to aim for economic growth of at least 5% in 2023 to keep a lid on unemployment, policy sources said. "Economic policy would turn more supportive in 2023. Consumer inflation will likely quicken to 2.3% in 2023 from 2.0% in 2022, before steadying in 2024, the poll showed.

BENGALURU, Jan 6 (Reuters) - A budget that accelerates fiscal consolidation would give more support to the Indian rupee in the near term, according to a Reuters poll of FX analysts who forecast the currency would erase a fifth of last year's losses over the next 12 months. A majority of FX analysts, 11 of 17, said a Feb. 1 budget that focuses on fiscal consolidation would help the Indian rupee the most in the near term. None of the respondents expected the rupee to be stronger than 75 per dollar, where it started 2022, at any point this year. Abhishek Upadhyay, senior economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, said the "fiscal deficit is still too high and needs to be reduced" for the rupee to find some support. "High fiscal deficit will hurt the savings-investment balance, curb improvement in current account deficit, and complicate the RBI's efforts to temper inflation pressures."

☆ India's services growth at 6-month high on robust demand - PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Rupak De ChowdhuriBENGALURU, Jan 4 (Reuters) - India's services industry saw activity increase at the fastest pace in six months during the final month of 2022 amid robust demand, fuelling business optimism despite high costs, a private-sector survey showed. The S&P Global India services purchasing managers' index (PMI) (INPMIS=ECI) rose to 58.5 in December from 56.4 in the previous month, confounding expectation in a Reuters poll for a fall to 55.5. The index was above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction for the 17th straight month - the longest stretch of growth since June 2013. Hiring hit a five-month low, albeit in expansionary territory, even though the new business sub-index rose to a four-month high due to strong demand. Thanks to the growth in services as well as in manufacturing, the composite index rose to 59.4 in December, the highest since January 2012, from 56.7 in November.

☆ BOJ may unwind ultra-easy policy in 2023, nearly half of economists say- Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

TOKYO, Dec 19 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) could unwind its ultra-loose monetary policy between March and October next year, according to almost half the economists in a Reuters poll on Monday, much sooner than predicted in previous projections. Of 26 economists polled, 11 expect the central bank will unwind its ultra-loose policy between March and October, the Dec. 8-15 poll found. Half, or 13, said the BOJ wouldn't scale back until 2024 or later and two still expect the next move to be more easing of policy. The most common means tipped by analysts for the BOJ to unwind stimulus would be a tweak to its forward guidance, according to 15 respondents. DEFENCE WITHOUT DEBTAsked about how Japan's defence budget spending increase would ideally be funded, nine of 20 economists chose tax hikes.

Among the nine housing markets surveyed, prices in six were expected to drop next year. Cost of living increases will also reduce demand as some consumers delay home purchases," noted analysts at Fitch Ratings, adding there was "significant uncertainty" around how much house prices would fall. An overwhelming majority of analysts polled by Reuters in the past weeks said house prices need to fall more than they currently expected in order to make them affordable. Already falling sharply, Australia and New Zealand housing prices were likely to fall further next year, by around 16%-18% from their peaks. The last time house prices fell sharply was during the global financial crisis almost 15 years ago, but with most major economies forecast to enter only a shallow recession, a similar crash was unlikely.

Summary Data due at 1200 GMT Dec. 12BENGALURU, Dec 9 (Reuters) - India consumer price inflation likely cooled to a nine-month low of 6.40% in November mainly due to a moderation in food prices, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Food prices alone account for nearly 40% of the consumer price index (CPI) basket in Asia's third largest economy. The Dec. 5-8 Reuters poll of 45 economists predicted the second consecutive decline in inflation (INCPIY=ECI) to an annual 6.40% from 6.77% in October. The central bank maintained its inflation forecast for financial year 2022/23 at 6.7%, the same as a recent Reuters poll. Furthermore, there are upside risks to food inflation particularly from cereals."

☆ China's trade likely shrank further in Nov as external, local demand weakened
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies Trade data due on Wednesday, Dec 7BEIJING, Dec 5 (Reuters) - China's exports and imports likely contracted further in November due to weakening global demand, production disruptions and waning demand at home amid widespread pandemic controls, a Reuters poll showed on Monday. COVID outbreaks in November in manufacturing hubs, such as Zhengzhou and Guangzhou, likely also disrupted production and weighed on exports. Due to a high year-earlier base for comparison and sluggish domestic demand, economists estimated November imports had been down 6.0%. The median estimate in the poll indicated a narrower trade surplus of $78.1 billion, compared with $85.15 billion in October. Beijing has introduced a vaccination campaign for the elderly, and some local governments are relaxing lockdowns, quarantine rules and testing requirements.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) lost 0.2% in early trade. Nonetheless, the index is set to rise 4.2% for the week, hovering around the highest level since September. "I think the rally can probably continue but in the short-term the payrolls are the one to watch closely." The Euro hit a fresh five-month high at $1.0539 while the Japanese yen also scaled a new three-month high against the U.S. dollar. The Aussie dollar dipped slightly to $0.6796, after blowing past major resistance at 68 cents in the previous session, on Fed pivot hopes and China easing its zero-COVID policy.

☆ BOJ's next move will unwind loose policy, 92% of economists say
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Twenty-four of 26 economists in the Nov 15-25 poll said the BOJ's next action, if any, would be "unwinding its ultra-easy monetary policy". Widely known as the policy accord, it requires the central bank to achieve its 2% inflation target "at the earliest date possible." Among those who wanted a revision, seven called for more flexibly judging achievement of the inflation target. One BOJ watcher calling for change wanted a lower inflation target, and another said the BOJ's mandate should be enlarged to include targeting employment or wage rises. On Monday, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida rejected the idea of adding wage growth as a new monetary policy goal.

☆ BOJ's next move will unwind loose policy, 92% of economists say: Reuters Poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Twenty-four of 26 economists in the Nov 15-25 poll said the BOJ's next action, if any, would be "unwinding its ultra-easy monetary policy". Widely known as the policy accord, it requires the central bank to achieve its 2% inflation target "at the earliest date possible." Among those who wanted a revision, seven called for more flexibly judging achievement of the inflation target. One BOJ watcher calling for change wanted a lower inflation target, and another said the BOJ's mandate should be enlarged to include targeting employment or wage rises. Two economists in the poll said the accord should simply be abolished.

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