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☆ Analysis: Investors warm to European corporate bonds after a brutal year
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Harry Robertson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A net $3.62 billion flowed into BlackRock's exchange-traded products which track investment grade European corporate debt in the 30 days to November 17. This has buoyed government bond prices, pushing their yields down, and boosted riskier assets such as corporate bonds and stocks. The iBoxx euro corporate bond index (.IBBEU003D) has risen almost 4% since hitting an eight-year low in October, although it remains down 13% for the year. Goldman Sachs strategists recently told clients that one- to five-year European corporate bonds are "very attractive". They said they're more appealingly priced than U.S. corporate debt, with many investors overly pessimistic about the outlook for Europe's economy.

☆ 100 years of stock-market history show the sell-off is likely only half done, says a 30-year market vet who called the downturn. Here are 3 criteria to watch to know when the worst is over.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-19 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Jon Wolfenbarger thinks stock-market investors are still too optimistic that a bear market bottom is coming sometime in the immediate-to-near future. When bear markets occur when valuations are relatively high, the bear markets tend to drag on longer. The median bear market length during periods of high valuation among those listed above is 17 months, Wolfenbarger said, compared to 13 months when valuations are attractive. Given that the current market sell-off began amid some of the highest valuations in history, Wolfenbarger said he expects the bear market to last 17 months or longer. Wolfenbarger's views in contextIn June, Societe Generale conducted a similar analysis to Wolfenbarger's and looked at bear markets over the last 150 years.

☆ 3 Markets rejoice after surprisingly cool inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

YUNG-YU MA, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, BMO WEALTH MANAGEMENT, CHICAGO“The better-than-expected CPI numbers are welcome but show a lot of underlying volatility. What Powell said is that we are going to need a few more reads on good CPI data before he can say we’re done." Shelter is the main contributor to inflation and everyone should know by now that it’s a garbage indicator of where inflation is headed. ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH, NEW YORK"A softer than expected inflation report is acting as a tailwind for markets. “The good news is that we saw a significant sequential improvement, inflation is clearly moving in the right direction.

☆ Allianz beats quarterly profit expectations, posts rosier 2022 outlook
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.464 billion euros ($2.47 billion) in the quarter compared to 2.111 billion euros a year earlier. The figure surpassed a 2.320 billion euro consensus forecast. Allianz said operating profit in 2022 would be in the upper half of its previously stated range of 12.4 billion euros to 14.4 billion euros. The "upper half" is new guidance and rosier than before. Separately, the company announced a 1 billion euro share buyback programme, which would start in the middle of November and conclude by the end of next year at the latest.

☆ Mexico's Pemex had a plan to fix its flaring problem, but abandoned it
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Stefanie Eschenbacher | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +10 min

The broken commitment, which has not previously been reported, highlights the struggles of Mexico's oil regulator to rein in Pemex, a powerful state monopoly that is always closely connected to the government. The oil company has in recent quarterly reports stressed it was making efforts to clean up its operations and bring down flaring and other waste. Earlier this year, under increasing international criticism, Lopez Obrador said Pemex would invest $2 billion to improve infrastructure to reduce flaring and methane emissions. The regulator said in 2020 the company wasted 37.7% of the gas from Ku alone through flaring, venting or otherwise. One source said the regulator fined Pemex again for recurrence in 2021 but the oil company started legal proceedings to annul the fine, which are still pending.

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Borrowing costs for UK firms are soaring, with sterling corporate bond prices headed for their biggest monthly fall since the 1990s as fallout from the British government's "mini-Budget" grows. That, according to Vanguard credit portfolio manager Sarang Kulkarni, in turn helped ease conditions slightly in the investment grade bond market. Yields and bond prices move inversely. The sterling corporate bond market, much smaller and less liquid than the equivalent euro or U.S. dollar markets, is driven largely by moves in UK gilts, which have slid in value in recent days. He said that liquidity in the corporate sterling market - not great at the best of times - was looking "almost non-existent" right now.

☆ Euro zone yields at multi-year highs, Italian bonds underperform
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterSept 26 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields jumped to multi-year highs amid expectations that central banks will keep tightening their monetary policy despite recession risks and a new sell-off in British gilts. Meanwhile, the spread between Italian and German yields widened after the rightist coalition won a clear majority in Sunday's elections. Italian bond (BTP) prices are also more susceptible to shifts in interest rate expectations, given the country's vast debt burden. Giorgia Meloni looks set to become Italy's first woman prime minister at the head of its most right-wing government since World War Two. "Bond yields across Europe are correlated, and today's jump in Britain yields is again affecting the euro area," he added.

REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File PhotoNEW YORK/LONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Global investors are preparing for more market mayhem after a monumental week that whipsawed asset prices around the world, as central banks and governments ramped up their fight against inflation. "It's hard to know what will break where, and when," said Mike Kelly, head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments (US). "Currency exchange rates ... are now violent in their moves," said David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors. But the murky outlook meant that they were still not cheap enough for some investors. "We are of the view that markets are still massively underestimating the global economic growth hit that is coming," he said.

REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File PhotoNEW YORK/LONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Global investors are preparing for more market mayhem after a monumental week that whipsawed asset prices around the world, as central banks and governments ramped up their fight against inflation. "It's hard to know what will break where, and when," said Mike Kelly, head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments (US). "Currency exchange rates ... are now violent in their moves," said David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors. The fallout from the hectic week exacerbated trends for stocks and bonds that have been in place all year, pushing down prices for both asset classes. "We are of the view that markets are still massively underestimating the global economic growth hit that is coming," he said.

Finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng's plans will require an extra 72 billion pounds ($79 billion) of government borrowing over the next six months alone, and - a particular concern for investors - cement permanent tax cuts costing 45 billion pounds a year. But to bond investors, they bring the prospect of more persistent inflationary pressures - at a time when inflation is already near a 40-year high - as well as tighter Bank of England (BoE) policy. Government borrowing is likely to total 218 billion pounds this financial year and 229 billion pounds in 2023/24, Citi predicted, and it expects benchmark 10-year British government bond yields to rise to 4.25%. Adding to the pressure, on Thursday the BoE confirmed it planned to reduce its own 838 billion pounds of gilt holdings by 80 billion pounds over the coming year. "That is a strong indication that domestic and overseas investors are losing confidence in the UK's inflation-fighting credibility," he said.

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