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LONDON, April 26 (Reuters) - Oil prices have fallen back after a brief spike triggered by the surprise production cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC+ on April 2. ROUTING THE BEARSIf one of the objectives for Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies was to drive bearish hedge funds out of the oil market, it seems to have succeeded. Following the cut, however, the number of short positions was reduced further to just 78 million barrels by April 11, near to its post-2010 low of just 65 million. In the past, Saudi Arabia's oil minister has described surprise production cuts intended to discourage hedge fund short selling as "ouching". Related columns:- Oil prices stall as short-covering rally is completed (April 17, 2023)- Surprise, squeezing the shorts, and revealed preferences (April 3, 2023)- Oil market has fully absorbed impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (March 9, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

☆ I'm a former Microsoft VP of HR. Here are the real reasons why layoffs are happening and how much longer they'll last.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Chris Williams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Some of the layoffs we've seen have included long-time employees years from their most meaningful contributions. The opticsSome of the layoffs we've seen in tech are ones that the companies have probably wished they could do for years. The future is brightWe are in a season of layoffs, and it's not clear we've seen the last or worst of it. That said, there is no reason to see the layoffs as a harbinger of doom and gloom for the tech world. Chris Williams is the former VP of HR at Microsoft and a leadership advisor, podcaster, TikTok creator, and author.

ORLANDO, Florida, April 14 (Reuters) - Engineering a soft landing is hard. Blinder posits that the soft landing parameters of avoiding recession completely are too narrow. "To achieve another soft landing under these circumstances, the Fed will have to be skillful indeed," Blinder concludes. The Fed cut rates five months later and the rest is soft landing history. Of these 70 episodes, 41 ended with a hard landing and 29 with a soft landing.

☆ Jeremy Grantham can spot market bubbles. Now he's warning of an 'ominous' bust
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

“Every one of these great bursts of euphoria, the great bubbles with overpriced markets … has been followed by a recession,” Grantham said. “When the great bubbles break, they do impose a lot of stress on the system,” Grantham said. What’s even more worrying is that this time, bubbles in the stock market and the real estate market are poised to burst simultaneously, Grantham said. The sector, which relies heavily on debt financing, has been hit hard by rising interest rates. Volcker raised interest rates to unprecedented levels to fight inflation in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

☆ A top tip for central banks: talk less, smile more
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

WASHINGTON, April 11 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Investors hang on central bankers’ every word, hoping to gain an edge for their next trade. But with consumer prices rising at the fastest pace in decades, central bankers can’t easily cut borrowing costs, either. Chatty central banks are a relatively new phenomenon. Investors are also more sensitive to central banks today than in years past. Still, being more careful about what’s said, and how it’s said, could help central banks better balance their priorities.

☆ Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham says the stock bubble is still deflating and the market will bottom in 2024 amid the Fed's 'horror show'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The stock bubble is still in the process of deflating and the market won't bottom until 2024, Jeremy Grantham said. The legendary investor blasted the Fed's monetary policy as a 36-year-long "horror show." He foresaw mild pain in the year ahead for investors, warning of a falloff in equities around April. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. That's similar to the rallies seen prior to the burst of the dot-com bubble, when the Nasdaq Composite plunged 40% in 2001.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has said the central bank may be at the end of its rate-rising cycle, there's a wide 'hawk-dove' divide within the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Canada on Wednesday became the first major central bank to pause its tightening campaign. "I don't think other major central banks are going to be able to match what the Fed is going to do. "The dollar can stay elevated as long as the Fed remains the most aggressive central bank in the world." Of course, central bank cycles don't always converge. Related columns:- Hedge funds record wager on higher 2-year U.S. bond yield- Rates market overshoot - or no man's land?

☆ Explainer: The Fed says disinflation is welcome. What is that, exactly?
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

But what, exactly, is disinflation, and why is it welcome? Central banks globally tend to target 2% annual inflation (the Fed formally adopted a 2% target in 2012). DISINFLATION = SLOWING INFLATIONCurrently inflation by the Fed's preferred measure - the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - is running at about 5%. Economists expect those softer new leases to start showing up in official measures in coming months - another part of the "good story" of disinflation, Powell said. Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan famously warned in 2003 that with inflation low, at 1.8%, "substantial further disinflation would be an unwelcome development."

☆ Fed's words in focus as markets bet rate hikes will soon end
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The rate increase expected at the Federal Open Market Committee's Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting would bring the policy rate to the 4.5%-4.75% range. That's two quarter-point rate hikes short of the level most Fed policymakers in December thought would be "sufficiently restrictive" to bring inflation under control. At the same time, he said, "there's going to be some caution" about doing anything that could feed market expectations that a pause in rate hikes is imminent. Fed policymakers, as of December at least, all see no rate cuts until 2024. "The key question is how committed they are to further rate hikes."

By announcing an inflation goal, central bankers feel they build credibility for themselves and focus the planning of households and firms in ways that help keep inflation controlled. Those decades, up to the end of the first year of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, saw inflation largely contained. Achieving that target is just core to our overall monetary policy," Brainard said, a sentiment echoed in central bank headquarters from Frankfurt to London to Tokyo. "Let me be quite clear, there are no ifs or buts in our commitment to the 2% inflation target," Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said last year. Should inflation prove stickier than expected, achieving the central bank's 2% inflation goal could mean even more losses.

chartHeadline and core PCE annual inflation rates in December were 5.0% and 4.4%, respectively. Under Chair Ben Bernanke in January 2012, the Fed formalized its annual inflation target: 2% PCE annual rate. The Fed's inflation target for 25-30 years, therefore, has been core or headline PCE of 2%, informally or formally, unwritten or written, unofficially or officially. But many rate-cutting episodes since 1990 came with PCE inflation above 2%, in some cases substantially higher. - In September 2007 the Fed started easing policy to mitigate the U.S. housing crash and global credit crunch, with rates at 4.75%.

☆ There's a 61% chance of recession this year, economists say—what that means for your money
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Ryan Ermey | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stop us if you've heard this one before: A lot of people think the economy may be headed for a recession. It's everywhere: A recent poll of economists from the Wall Street Journal pegged the recession chances in 2023 at 61%. Even 96-year-old former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has weighed in, saying that a recession is "the most likely outcome" given the current economic trajectory. A short, shallow recession may be priced into marketsEconomists aren't the only ones who have recession on the brain. Overall, investors and economists alike expect a "fairly mild kind of recession, " says Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.

Reuters GraphicsThe U.S. central bank is already adjusting to one unanticipated set of changes - an outbreak of inflation coupled with stalled growth in the U.S. labor force. "You have to identify the regime change ... Then you have to understand the transition dynamics ... and have a clear vision and insight into all of those ... "Markets calibrated to ... Chinese growth and low interest rates may prove fragile." Like recessions, which are typically identified only well after they have started, other economic turning points aren't always apparent in the moment. But as evidence of that accumulated following the 2007-2009 recession, it was only embodied into Fed policy in 2020 under a new approach that leaned against premature interest rate increases.

☆ Premarket stocks: Bonds are back, but for how long?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —Stocks soared on Friday to their best day in more than a month. But the big turnaround story during the short first week of the year isn’t just about equities, it’s also about bonds. Bonds are particularly sensitive to those increases — as rates are hiked, the price of existing bonds falls as investors prefer the new debt that will soon be issued with those higher interest payouts. This time around, investors are scooping up bonds as they anticipate the pace of Fed interest rate hikes will soon ease. Core bonds, or US investment grade debt, tend to perform well during Fed rate hike pauses.

☆ Taiwan is planning a satellite internet service amid China invasion fears after seeing how much Elon Musk's Starlink has helped in Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Pete Syme | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Taiwan is courting investors to create its own satellite-based internet similar to Starlink, the FT reports. The move comes amid increasing tensions between mainland China and Taiwan. Taiwan's digital minister, Audrey Tang, told the FT: "We look at the Russian invasion of Ukraine and how Starlink has been used very successfully." Starlink is operated by Elon Musk's SpaceX, and provides internet coverage via a constellation of satellites. Taiwan's decision to look at creating satellite-based internet comes amid increasingly tense relations with neighboring China.

☆ Burton Malkiel on why his classic investment book, 'A Random Walk Down Wall Street,' is relevant 50 years later
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

You recommended index funds 50 years ago even before index funds existed. Standard & Poor's publishes annual reports showing how actively managed funds compare with index funds. Random Walk means that the history of past stock market prices cannot be used to predict the future. Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), most of which are tied to index funds, are continuing to rake in money. This suggests that returns over the next decade are likely to be below the 9%-10% long-run historical stock market returns.

☆ Former Fed chair Alan Greenspan warned a US recession is on its way and slammed failed crypto exchange FTX in a recent Q&A. Here are the 10 best quotes.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Former Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan shared his outlook for 2023 in a recent investment commentary. He warned a US recession is now "the most likely outcome" – and slammed bankrupt crypto exchange FTX. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. Since retiring as Fed chair in 2006, Greenspan has worked as a private advisor and financial consultant. Read more: A war between China and Taiwan is the economic 'black swan' investors should be most worried about, ex-Fed chair Alan Greenspan warns

☆ Alan Greenspan says US recession is likely
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan believes a US recession is the “most likely outcome” of the Fed’s aggressive rate hike regime meant to curb inflation. In the 12 months that followed February 1994 Greenspan nearly doubled interest rates to 6% and managed to keep the economy steady, avoiding recession. Greenspan, now 96, said in a note this week that he doubts this current bout of hikes will result in a repeat performance. Wage increases and, by extension, employment, “still need to soften further for a pullback in inflation to be anything more than transitory,” said Greenspan. Greenspan doubts the Fed will loosen interest rates soon because “inflation could flare up again and we would be back at square one,” he said.

☆ Analysis: Chaos in Congress sends an ominous signal to Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —Many on Wall Street cheered last fall when the midterm elections ushered in a return of divided government in Washington. But the historic dysfunction playing out in Congress this week is a reminder that you should be careful what you wish for. Buckle up for debt ceiling brinksmanshipBut lawmakers did not agree to tackle the debt ceiling, the borrowing limit that must be raised to avoid a calamitous US debt default. In the past, brinksmanship over the debt ceiling eventually gave way to a compromise, though often not until significant pressure was applied by business leaders, financial markets — or both. Andrew Frankel, co-president of Stuart Frankel, dismissed the House speaker race as a “big, fat nothing-burger” for the market and said it was “just noise.”“It’s all about the Fed,” Frankel said.

☆ Factbox: Key facts about pioneering broadcast journalist Barbara Walters
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

WASHINGTON, Dec 30 (Reuters) - The following are key facts about the life and career of pioneering broadcast journalist Barbara Walters, the first woman to anchor an American network evening newscast, who died on Friday:* Walters was born in Boston on Sept. 25, but she did not like to reveal the year, which reportedly was 1929, 1930 or 1931. * Walters started at NBC's "Today" show as a writer in 1961 and in 1976 became the first woman to co-anchor a network evening news broadcast on U.S. television. * Walters singled out her "Today" co-host Frank McGee and Reasoner on ABC News for making her life miserable. * Walters felt she was unfairly mocked for her asking actress Katharine Hepburn what kind of tree she would like to be. * Walters' marriages to businessman Robert Katz, theatrical producer Lee Guber and television executive Merv Adelson all ended in divorce.

☆ Pioneering U.S. television journalist Barbara Walters dead at 93
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( Bill Trott | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/2] Television personality Barbara Walters arrives for the premiere of the film "Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps" in New York September 20, 2010. "I asked Yeltsin if he drank too much, and I asked Putin if he killed anybody," Walters told the New York Times in 2013. "These two men were really quite brutal to me and it was not pleasant," Walters told the San Francisco Examiner. The New York Times called her "arguably America's best-known television personality" but also observed that "what we remember most about a Barbara Walters interview is Barbara Walters." Walters' three marriages - to businessman Robert Katz, theatrical producer Lee Guber and television executive Merv Adelson - ended in divorce.

☆ Morning Bid: Wall Street on Santa's naughty list
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

This year, it looks like Santa Claus has no plans to visit Wall Street. The S&P 500 (.SPX) is on course for its third weekly decline and the famed "Santa rally", where the index stages a run-up in the week leading to Dec. 25, hasn't materialised. The index rallied straight into the third week of January in just 22 of the 90 years. On average, since 1932, the S&P 500 has returned some 0.4% in any given Santa rally week. The worst pre-Christmas week was in 1957, bang in the middle of what was known as the "Eisenhower recession".

The war on inflation is far from won, with the Fed's preferred measure of price increases still running at roughly three times the central bank's 2% target. That's the biggest ramp-up in U.S. rates over a nine-month period since Volcker battled even higher inflation in the early 1980s. Powell, who this year marked a decade since his appointment as a Fed governor and whose second term as Fed chief extends to 2026, has overseen some divided decisions. In a best-case scenario, inflation continues to fall and Fed officials, whether hawk or dove, align around a stopping point for the policy rate that doesn't lead to a sharp rise in unemployment. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Additional reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ The Fed may have to blow up the economy to get inflation under control
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-30 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Jobs report also on tapThe Fed meeting takes place just two days before the nation will get its next report card on the labor market. Another jobs report, from payroll processor ADP, is also due out next week, and this one looks just at Corporate America. The government said in the September jobs report that average hourly earnings rose 5% in the past 12 months. The Fed typically prefers to see wage growth in the 2% to 3% annual range as a sign that inflation is under control. Discovery, Starbucks (SBUX), PayPal (PYPL), Amgen (AMGN) and Block (SQ)Friday: US jobs report; earnings from Cardinal Health (CAH), Duke Energy (DUK) and Hershey (HSY)

Hopes have risen that the 20% S&P 500 plunge this year had cleared the decks by dragging the aggregate price/earnings ratio back below long-term averages. "In this environment we think bonds are more attractive relative to stocks on a risk-adjusted basis. chartMIND THE GAPTake the difference between the S&P 500 earnings yield and nominal 10-year Treasury yield. The current dividend yield - total annual dividends divided by the value of the index - is around 1.75%, while the 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.23%. As of Monday Oct. 24, the S&P 500 was down 20% year-to-date and the ICE BofA aggregate Treasuries index was down 15.6%.

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