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Search resuls for: "Aaron Terrazas"


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Today, 77.8% of women between the ages of 25 and 54 are in the labor force, surpassing the previous peak in 2000. "The most obvious explanation is that remote work expanded possibilities for this group that would not have been there otherwise," Terrazas says. "In those core family-raising, childbearing years, prior generations of women may have felt it necessary to leave the labor force. Remote work allowed many of them to stay in the labor force." So: What could keep remote work from becoming, in the words of the legal scholar Joan Williams, a "feminized ghetto"?
Persons: shutdowns, Aaron Terrazas, Terrazas, COVID, they're, Marianne Bertrand, Joan Williams, Rose Khattar, Aki Ito Organizations: New York Times, University of Chicago, Center for American Locations: United States, France, Germany
Americans feel bad about the economy, even though data shows a booming labor market. The recovery from the pandemic recession reset everyone's expectations about what a good economy looks like. Americans are feeling bad about the economy, and some of that is likely due to inflation eating at their budgets. Consumer confidence is still low, and, as JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist David Kelly writes, Americans feel an "unreasonable level of gloom." In short, the things that used to make Americans feel good or bad about the economy aren't as consequential anymore.
Persons: Aaron Terrazas, Labor Julie Su, that's, David Kelly, Kelly, Terrazas, , would've Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor, Pew Research Center, JPMorgan Asset Management, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, America
Minneapolis CNN —When the June jobs report lands on Friday, it’s all but certain to show that the US labor market has added jobs for 30 consecutive months. And this year’s monthly average of 314,000 net job gains far exceeds what was seen before the pandemic, including during that 100-month stretch post-Great Recession. Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, said she’s expecting a “gradual cooling” to wash over the labor market. “The jobs market is not collapsing,” she said. The timing of the Fourth of July holiday resulted in a load of labor market data landing within 24 hours of the government’s monthly jobs report.
Persons: Sarah House, she’s, , wilder, Andy Challenger, ” Aaron Terrazas Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Labor, Challenger, Fed Locations: Minneapolis, Wells Fargo
Images By Tang Ming Tung | Digitalvision | Getty Images"This is clearly a function of inflation starting to come down," Terrazas said. 'Unprecedented' pay jumps during pandemicWage growth started to spike in 2021 as workers enjoyed the benefits of a hot job market. In some cases, workers' pay growth was strong enough to outrun inflation's impact — especially for those who quit their jobs for higher-paying gigs elsewhere. Meanwhile, wage growth has also declined but at a slower pace — translating to a net boost to Americans' financial well-being in May relative to last year. These data sets are more inclusive than that of wage growth.
Persons: Tang Ming Tung, Terrazas, Julia Pollak, Pollak, Mark Zandi, Aaron Terrazas, Zandi Organizations: ZipRecruiter, CPI, . Bureau, Moody's, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: U.S, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
We're entering what is shaping up to be the Forever Labor Shortage. So what does the Forever Labor Shortage mean for workers in the years ahead? But perhaps the biggest change prompted by the labor shortage won't be how employers hire — it will be who they hire. In the Forever Labor Shortage, all labor is going to be in demand. That means the Forever Labor Shortage will be more an ongoing battle than an enduring peace.
It may be accurate to say the quitting situation is evolving into the "Big Stay," per ADP's chief economist. "The Big Quit of 2022 could be easing into the Big Stay of 2023," Richardson wrote in her recent commentary. "A year later, all three of these dynamics are abating, and the great resignation itself is looking like a thing of the past." Pollak said that "to the extent that there is a big stay, it is not taking place across the economy." Even if the Great Resignation might not be prevalent in all areas of the economy right now, it could emerge again.
Several measures from Friday's jobs report show the labor market is stronger than it's been in decades. But Terrazas pointed to potential concerns in the labor market and for interest rates. "If it's the former, it's just a matter of time before gravity catches up with the labor market," Terrazas said. Overall though, the different robust labor market data suggests the US could maybe avoid a recession as has been the case so far in 2023. Despite potential risks in the job market, Pollak believes there's a possibility that the US continues to avoid a recession.
Right now, the Great Resignation is still strong in many blue-collar, service industries. But the Great Resignation is coming to an end in remote, knowledge-based roles. Information, which encompasses some tech roles, also saw employment decline from January to February. "If you read about the Great Resignation while you were working from home on a computer, in your pajamas, the Great Resignation's over," Terrazas said. In industries like retail and leisure and hospitality, the Great Resignation lives on.
What to expect from the February jobs report
  + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
Minneapolis CNN —January’s jobs report delivered a heck of a surprise when it showed the US economy had added more than half a million jobs and unemployment had dipped to a level not seen in more than five decades. But economists say they are not bracing for another blindside when the February jobs report comes out on Friday morning. “If we get a second strong jobs report [on Friday], it’s no longer an anomaly,” Terrazas added. Seasonality, benchmarking and the interplay of pandemic-era data don’t completely explain away January’s blockbuster jobs report, economists say, noting there are likely influences from the currently tight labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ February jobs report is set to be released at 8:30 a.m.
New data out Friday morning shows how the US labor market looked in February. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payrolls rose 311,000, exceeding the 205,000 gain forecasted by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. They expected payroll growth in February to fall from January's massive initial reading last month of 517,000. If we get a second strong report, that really has to change a lot of narratives out there about what is going on in the labor market and the economy." However, the rate was still historically low in January even if it may seem like there are massive job cuts happening.
Minneapolis CNN —January’s jobs report delivered a heck of a surprise when it showed the US economy had added more than half a million jobs and unemployment had dipped to a level not seen in more than five decades. But economists say they are not bracing for another blindside when the February jobs report comes out on Friday. “I think most economists were comfortable dismissing the January jobs data as an anomaly,” Aaron Terrazas, Glassdoor’s chief economist, told CNN. “If we get a second strong jobs report [on Friday], it’s no longer an anomaly,” Terrazas added. Seasonality, benchmarking and the interplay of pandemic-era data don’t completely explain away January’s blockbuster jobs report, economists say, noting there are likely influences from the currently tight labor market.
The layoffs and discharges rate in January was 1.1%, which remains historically low. While BLS data may show a low US layoff rate overall, tech layoff announcements are important, given Pollak said that tech and finance are "​​synonymous with Americans' aspirations generally." "Those markets are very exposed to tech layoffs, and tech plays a disproportionate role in the economy," Terrazas added. Pollak told Insider that the layoffs at tech companies are "relatively small" and that "many companies also are not pursuing layoffs across the board." Despite the layoff rate being very low, job seekers may still be concerned about these headlines.
Despite economic uncertainty, US workers are confident about the job market, LinkedIn data suggests. The findings point to American workers' resilience, nearly three years since the pandemic began. A recent LinkedIn survey of more than 2,000 US employees conducted in December offers fresh insight into how workers feel about the job market in 2023. Roughly two-thirds of American workers are considering changing jobs this year, mainly to boost their salary and improve their work-life balance, according to the results. At a time when many organizations remain desperate to hire and keep employees, American workers have seen their leverage in the job market grow.
Despite widely-covered job cuts at some big companies, mass layoffs have yet to emerge in the broader economy. The Department of Labor data shows that there hasn't been a large climb in US initial jobless claims. Instead, seasonally adjusted claims have been relatively low week after week, unlike back in March 2020 when claims soared and peaked in early April. That strongly suggests that the overall US economy isn't seeing the kind of large-scale layoffs that typically mark a recession. And data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) program also shows shows layoffs in the US have been low.
That's good news, since the Federal Reserve has been trying to tame wage growth. Cooling wage growth could mean the Fed won't need to induce a recession to bring down inflation. Bunker said that wage growth "is still robust but starting to moderate a little bit." And wage growth has slowed even more when looking at data from the most recent months, rather than just the year-over-year change. "We're seeing wage growth at 4.6% year-over-year.
"I think workers still have options, and I think that that's a beautiful thing," Labor Secretary Marty Walsh told Insider. Taken together — alongside structural labor shortages that have kept employers raising wages and vying for workers — the labor market is still looking strong for Americans. "We're seeing more people get back into the job market," Walsh said, noting that workers without college degrees are seeing more opportunity. "We are starting to see some retirees dip back into the labor market." The Black unemployment rate is still elevated, and, while more Black women joined the labor force in December, their unemployment rate went up.
Young Americans led the way — over 40% of Gen Z workers and almost 50% of millennial workers freelanced. The record share this year signals more Americans are turning to freelance work amid continued employer struggles to find workers. According to the survey, 43% of Gen Z workers and 46% of millennial workers performed freelance work in 2022, compared to 35% of Gen X workers who said the same. Thirty-seven percent said they provide "unskilled" services, while 31% said they sell goods as part of their freelance work. Per the report, 17% of US freelancers generate "income from a mix of traditional employment and freelance work."
With a recession looming, some Americans may wish they had built more of a financial cushion. The personal savings rate — the share of Americans' income saved in a given month — fell to 2.3% in October, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported last Thursday. But sky-high prices aren't the only reason Americans' savings are dwindling. Experts expect the US to enter a recession next year, which is expected to coincide with falling job openings and a rising unemployment rate. Inflation isn't expected to go away quickly either, leaving Americans with wage bumps that may continue to lag inflation.
Some Gen Zers are focusing on a company's mission and job security during their job searches. As a recession looms, Gen Zers might want to consider their financial futures when applying for their next role. Additionally, over half of Gen Z could enter retirement without sufficient savings due to savings challenges and rising costs, Boston University economist Laurence Kotlikoff previously told Insider. In fact, the typical annual salary for Gen Z employees was $32,500 in 2021, according to research from the personal finance site GoBankingRates. To be sure, plenty of Gen Zers understand the financial pressures to come and are prioritizing salary in their job search.
Declining immigration and an aging population could cause the labor shortage to continue in the years ahead. And the labor shortage may only get worse in the years ahead. Those slowdowns have already contributed to the current labor shortage, and will continue to do so for years to come. "But it's happening very slowly, and I don't think it explains what is particularly going on in the labor market right now." A steady decline in the US' working age population might not only create problems for businesses looking to grow.
According to new research from Glassdoor, in September 2017, 27% of companies reviewed on the site indicated corporate investment into DEI programs like Employee Resource Groups. Access to DEI programs surged to 39% in 2020 before peaking to 43% in 2021. Where are DEI programs thriving? Young people have been very vocal about their desire to work for companies that care about diversity, equity, and inclusion — and Glassdoor reviews prove it. Black women, and people of color collectively, are also more likely to say diversity, equity, and inclusion are important than their white counterparts.
ZipRecruiter, another job site, found a fourfold increase in job listings mentioning remote work, to a 12% total share. In all, remote work translates to roughly 4% more hours worked during a 40-hour week. "People really, really want remote work," Pollak said, adding: "It's difficult to put the genie back in the bottle." 'Significant variation' in remote work opportunitiesThat said, most jobs in the U.S. economy can't be done remotely. People really, really want remote work.
It's taken time for Americans of all ages to return to work, but older Gen Zers are most lagging. It may all have to do with how Gen Z views a job versus a side hustle or gig work. And those answers could partially explain a question economists are puzzled over: Where have the Gen Z workers gone? While he's uncertain where the missing Gen Z workers have gone, he says childcare needs could be part of the answer. If Gen Z has embraced gig work over the corporate life, it could be among the reasons many of them say they're living paycheck to paycheck.
A new Indeed and Glassdoor report looks at long-term trends for the labor market. A new Indeed and Glassdoor report looked at long-term labor market trends. One key trend: Labor supply will remain tight, especially as the number of people who are considered working age continues to dwindle. Obviously, that takes a little while to spill over into the labor force, as the country still deals with its own labor squeeze. And, in Germany, the labor market situation is still a problem, but hasn't been as challenging over the last few years.
But big retailers might be slower to add temporary help this holiday season than in years past. Despite an eagerness for holiday work, economists from various career sites agree that seasonal hiring doesn't look so hot this year. For instance, Macy's is planning to hire fewer seasonal workers this year compared to last year, as Insider's Avery Hartmans reported. Target has a similar hiring goal as last year; it plans to hire up to 100,000 seasonal workers. Did you apply for a holiday hiring position because of economic reasons?
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