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"The beginning of bull markets has this really incredible trajectory," Demmert said in a recent interview. AdvertisementA slew of catalysts, including investors' fear of missing out, will drive the S&P 500 to 6,000 by year's end, Demmert predicted. "This whole thing ends, eventually, very ugly, but I think that's years away — not months," Demmert said. So we start a new business cycle; new bull market. AdvertisementEconomic cycles usually go for seven to eight years, Demmert said, and this bull market began two Octobers ago.
Persons: , James Demmert, Demmert, I'm, inflation's, there's, We're, that's, Scott Organizations: Service, Main, Research, Business, Federal Reserve, Bears Locations: Wall, Japan, India, China
Certainly lower interest rates are a huge help, particularly for small-cap companies that are generally more sensitive to interest rate changes. There must be a belief that earnings will broaden out beyond a small group of megacap tech stocks. The root source of the long tech rally is the superior earnings growth of technology. Two questions follow: with the massive rise in tech prices, is most or all of that earnings growth now priced in, and what are the prospects for earnings growth in other sectors? The problem is identifying where this additional earnings growth is coming from, and how robust it might be.
Persons: it's, Supriya Menon, America's Savita Subramanian, Bryan Spillane, Subramanian Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Wellington Management, Bloomberg, Bank, America's Locations: cyclicals
Sure enough, the S&P 500 rallied another 7.2%, ending 2023 up 24.2%. BMO Capital MarketsInvestors would love a similar outcome after a 14.5% first-half gain, which ranks in the 82nd percentile historically, according to BMO. History is on stocks' side in the second halfIn the last seven-and-a-half decades, the S&P 500 has risen 10% to 15% a dozen other times. Chances are, the relatively tame 5.5% slide the S&P 500 experienced in March and April won't be the biggest pullback of the year. Advertisement"Extended valuation remains a hot topic, but a closer inspection reveals that levels may not be as severe as are being advertised," Belski wrote.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, Brian Belski, Belski, Stocks, Oppenheimer Organizations: Service, BMO Capital Markets, Business, BMO Capital, BMO, UBS, Markets, Tech, Trade Locations: The Montreal, New York, US
He favors small-cap, mid-cap, and quality stocks over the Big Tech mega-caps leading the market rally for three reasons. One is that the earnings winning streak that Magnificent Seven stocks have enjoyed is simply difficult to keep going. In the first quarter of this year, Magnificent Seven earnings grew by 50% annualized year-over-year, according to Ned Davis Research. Wall Street estimates Magnificent Seven earnings will grow by 28% year-over-year in Q2. When it comes to innovating and adapting, small and mid-cap companies' size gives them a relative advantage.
Persons: , Larry Kochard, Ned Davis, Kochard, reinvesting, It's, it's Organizations: Service, Big Tech, Capital Management, Business, Ned Davis Research, Wall, The, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, European Union, Quality
The market is only driven by a handful of massive tech stocks – and therefore, it's built on a weaker foundation than a market advancing on a broader swath of its constituents. Companies don't lose dominance or stock leadership because they were dominant the last time we had a bull market. We trimmed Nvidia, Meta Platforms, Palo Alto Networks , and five other tech stocks at the beginning of the year. Would the market suddenly become more investible if we broke up the Super Six into say 15 different companies and stocks? However, we don't think they are a reason to bail entirely on any of these names.
Persons: it's, Jim Cramer, Jim, they've, we've, we're, Jim Cramer's, Spencer Platt Organizations: Club, Super, CNBC, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Fed, Barclays, Big Tech, IBM, Palo Alto Networks, Palo Alto, United Parcel Service, Google, Facebook, Gmail, Amazon, Services, Jim Cramer's Charitable, The New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Getty Locations: Eaton, Dover, 2Q24, U.S, Manhattan, New York City
The bull case for small caps as the second half kicks off
  + stars: | 2024-07-04 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +6 min
By contrast, the S & P 500 has already reached Jefferies' bull case of 5,400, the strategist noted. The right catalyst For investors, the bull case for small caps that prevailed when the year began, still holds. More immediately, second-quarter earnings may prove a positive catalyst for small caps since expectations are so low, according to Jefferies' DeSanctis. On a trailing 12-month basis, the S & P 500 is trading at a multiple of 25 times earnings. Ultimately, however, many investors say that a rotation into small caps is coming, even if it hasn't happened yet.
Persons: Russell, Richard Nixon, Steven DeSanctis, Jefferies, DeSanctis, Brian Leonard, Ross Mayfield, Baird, Keeley Teton's Leonard, Something's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Jefferies, CNBC Pro, Fed, Advisors Locations: Keeley
A 15% year-to-date total return in the S & P 500 is the 21 st best run through June since 1900, according to Goldman Sachs. The S & P 500 since the October 2023 correction low is up 33% for an annualized total return pace of 56%. The S & P has gone eight sessions without a move of as much as half a percent. True in magnitude: The market-cap-weighted S & P 500 has outgained its equal-weighted version by more than ten percentage points this year. Not only haven't up days been broadly inclusive, the direction of the S & P 500 has been running inverse to the daily breadth over the past month.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Sharpe, it's, we'd, I've, What's, Jeff deGraaf, Trump, We've, Poor's, what's Organizations: Nvidia, Walgreens, Nike, Apple, Technology, Communication Services Locations: hiccups
New York CNN —Nvidia’s eye-popping gains this year have helped propel the stock market to repeated record highs. Can Nvidia’s blockbuster gains continue, and what does its outsized market cap mean for the stock rally? Now everyone says, “the market is dependent on Nvidia’s earnings.” You’re going to see a kind of a shift in market cap over the years. “These lower mortgage rates coupled with the gradually improving housing supply bodes well for the housing market.”Still, mortgage rates remain higher than anything seen in the decade before 2022, the year the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates to combat inflation. The Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates but its actions do influence them through the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield, which moves in anticipation of the Fed’s policy moves.
Persons: OpenAI’s, Bell, Christopher Barto, ” You’re, Bryan Mena, Freddie Mac, , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, don’t, Read, Ilya Sutskever, Clare Duffy, Sutskever, Geoffrey Hinton Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Nvidia, Microsoft, Fort Pitt Capital Group, Apple, Meta, Google, Amazon, , Federal Reserve, Treasury, Superintelligence Inc, SSI Locations: New York
Wall Street is wondering whether the tech rally that's pushed the S & P 500 through record after record this year can continue, even as some cracks emerge in the market outlook. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 near record highs A peek inside the major indexes also reveals a similar pattern. Information technology is the best-performing sector in the S & P 500 this week, gaining 6.2%. As it is, the S & P 500 is already above 5,400, having advanced more than 13% this year. Winners and losers market David Miller, investment chief at Catalyst Funds, also said the S & P 500 could end 2024 with a 17% or 18% gain.
Persons: Jeff Klingelhofer, it's, Klingelhofer, Brian Nick, Nick, Dave Sekera, Dave Donabedian, Donabedian, David Miller, Miller Organizations: Nasdaq, Nvidia, Dow Jones, Apple, Thornburg Investment Management, CNBC, Macro, Federal Reserve, Morningstar, CIBC Private Wealth, Catalyst Funds, Microsoft, Google, Visa, MasterCard, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Novo Nordisk, TransDigm, Index, Retail, Manufacturing, Housing, Philadelphia Fed, Kroger, Darden, PMI Locations: U.S, NAHB
"The company made a massive switch in its consumer mix," said Sandeep Rao, a senior researcher at Leverage Shares, an investment management company. As for competition, even if Nvidia's contenders appear weak, more entrants will grab market share. Beth Kindig, the CEO and lead tech analyst for the I/O Fund, estimates that AMD's market share could reach 20%. Nvidia and AMD have similar production costs since neither makes their GPUs but uses the same supplier, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC). "So AMD is a little bit behind in terms of performance," Rao said.
Persons: Sandeep Rao, corporates, Rao, Nvidia's, Blackwell, Rubin, AMD'sRadeon, Beth Kindig, Nvidia's Blackwell Organizations: Service, Apple, Microsoft, Business, Nvidia, Semiconductor, Nvidia Investors, AMD, Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel, Baidu Locations: China, India
US indices rallied after a promising PCE report. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . As projected, core PCE rose 0.2% in April. ""The equity market wants to see a slowdown in economic growth and today's PCE data provided a soft-landing report," David Donabedian said, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth US. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Friday:AdvertisementHere's what else happened today:In commodities, bonds, and crypto:
Persons: , Friday's, David Donabedian, Eric Sterner Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Service, Dow Jones, Nvidia, Microsoft, PCE, CIBC Private Wealth, Federal Reserve, Apollon Wealth Management
This report is from this week's CNBC's "Inside India" newsletter which brings you timely, insightful news and market commentary on the emerging powerhouse and the big businesses behind its meteoric rise. "This particular product, and broadly speaking, the domestic investor, has driven the upsurge in the Indian stock markets," Mahesh Nandurkar, head of India research at Jefferies, told CNBC. For instance, of the nearly 4,900 actively traded India-listed stocks, 300 stocks had a fall in revenue in the last two consecutive financial years. Foreign investors have historically had a significant influence on local equity markets. For now, the savings directed into equity markets are still a tiny proportion of the overall savings Indians put away annually.
Persons: it's, Mahesh Nandurkar, Hermes, Jonathan Pines, Deepak Jasani, Jefferies, Nandurkar Organizations: Association for Mutual Funds, SBI Equity, Opportunities, ICICI Prudential, Advantage Fund, Jefferies, CNBC, Federated Hermes, HDFC Securities Locations: India, Japan
Various labor market indicators are also showing growing weakness in the economy, he said. Societe GeneraleNational Federation of Independent Business data shows further labor market weakness is likely to come, as small business hiring plans continue to fall. Both stats would suggest a rising unemployment rate going forward. In the meantime, the labor market has consistently proven resilient despite high interest rates, and stocks have enjoyed an eye-popping rally to new highs. Some also argue that labor market data points like the rising unemployment rate have to be shown with context.
Persons: , Albert Edwards, didn't, Edwards, aren't, we'll, Societe Generale Edwards, Bob Elliott, groupthink Edwards, Alan Greenspan Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Wall, Business, Societe Generale National Federation of Independent Business, ING, Generale, Unlimited Partners, Bridgewater Associates, of Labor Statistics, Tech
We are exiting our position in Bausch Health , selling 2,930 shares at roughly $7.13. In addition, are buying 95 shares of Abbott Laboratories at roughly $104.53 and 125 shares of GE Healthcare at roughly $81. And we are still buying into weakness because shares of Abbott and GE Healthcare are down over the past month. Shares of Abbott have been in the doghouse since March due to litigation concerns for its baby formula business. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Jim Cramer's, Bausch, It's, Jim Cramer, Amneal, Abbott, Johnson, it's, GE Healthcare's, Jim Organizations: Bausch Health, Abbott Laboratories, GE Healthcare, ABT, GEHC, Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Abbott, Johnson, GE, Electric, Disney, Wynn Resorts, WYNN, CNBC Locations: BHC, Bausch's, China, U.S, Bausch
Small- and mid-cap companies have long lagged the broader market due to a slew of challenges, including higher interest rate expectations. However, the strategy head acknowledged that not all small- and mid-cap stocks are the same. The former has been the most consistent small-cap group in economic regimes like this one, though quality stocks can also be a strong choice. Below are the other eight SMID-cap stocks with earnings prospects that Bank of America is bullish about now. Along with each is its ticker, market capitalization, sector, Z-scores for earnings and revenue (higher is better), and Q1 earnings report date (soonest are listed first).
Persons: BofA, Russell, Jill Carey Hall, Hall Organizations: Bank of America's, Business, Bank of America
The AI engineer bailed on his friends, who had traveled from the East Coast to the Seattle area. watch nowThis is the dark underbelly of the generative AI gold rush. Last year marked the beginning of the generative AI boom, following the debut of OpenAI's ChatGPT near the end of 2022. Justin Sullivan | Getty ImagesAn AI engineer at Microsoft said the company is engaged in an "AI rat race." The Microsoft AI engineer said a lot of tasks are about "trying to create AI hype" with no practical use.
Persons: Sebastien Bozon, Jensen Huang, Tech's, Amy Hood, Mark Zuckerberg, Zuckerberg, Andy Jassy, Jassy, they're, Eric Gu, , Gu, Satya Nadella, Sam Altman, Justin Sullivan, there's, Morry, Kolman, doesn't, Sundar Pichai, Bard, There's, That's, beholden, Ayodele Odubela, ", it’s, Adam Selipsky, Anthropic, Dario Amodei, Noah Berger, Odubela, Gemini Organizations: Google, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, AFP, Getty, Amazon, CNBC, Big Tech, Nvidia, Google . Engineers, Tech, Vision, Cloud Next, Web, Amazon Web Locations: Mulhouse, France, East Coast, Seattle, ChatGPT, San Francisco, Vegas, Las Vegas, German
That's about four times bigger than Berkshire's second-biggest public stock holding, Bank of America , and makes the company the No. The bet on Apple and CEO Tim Cook has paid off handsomely for Buffett, who said in 2022 that the cost of Berkshire's Apple stake was only $31 billion. "So I called up Warren Buffett. "It's kind of more like an annuity and I think that's what Warren Buffett really sees as well." "When I buy Apple, I know that Apple is going to repurchase a lot of shares," he said in 2018.
Persons: Tim Cook, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, behemoth, Buffett, He's, Cook, Apple, Warren, Ted Weschler, it's, Dan Eye, Buffett hasn't, Bernstein, Toni Sacconaghi didn't, Sacconaghi, Clayton Organizations: Warren Buffett Getty, CNBC, Berkshire, Apple, Bank of America, Buffett, Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, iPhone, Washington Post, Oracle, Fort Pitt Capital Group, Microsoft, The, Apple Watch, DOJ, Clayton Homes Locations: Omaha , Nebraska, Berkshire, Omaha, Cupertino , California, U.S
Tech stocks are heavily exposed to China, which could put gains at risk, according to Piper Sandler. Tech companies are especially vulnerable to any weakness in China, with semiconductor businesses notably generating more than 30% of their sales in the country, the note read. In April, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has dropped about 7%, underperforming the S & P 500's more than 3% decline during the same period. "S & P large caps have near-record exposure to a China that is wobbly economically, with an increasingly authoritarian Heavy Hand of regulation," Lazar wrote Wednesday. S & P Global Ratings this week noted the country could be in for a new wave of bond defaults that could come as soon as next year, further fueling those worries.
Persons: Piper Sandler, Nancy Lazar, Lazar, — CNBC's Evelyn Cheng Organizations: Tech, Street Journal, VanEck Semiconductor, Devices, Intel Locations: China, Beijing, Shanghai
Treasury yields dip: In addition to earnings, the other part of the market's gauntlet this week is a trio of huge Treasury auctions. The PMI data was softer than expected, confirming signs of the economic "brown shoots" that Jim Cramer has recently been flagging. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jim, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Treasury, P Global, PMI, Federal, Amazon, Foods, Apple, Developers, Tesla, Enphase, Texas, Boeing, Boston Scientific, Otis Worldwide, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Enphase Energy, Humana
Like many others, fund manager Jim Golan has made a fortune from mega-cap growth stocks. For the last 19 years, Golan has logged consistently solid returns as manager of the $2.2 billion William Blair Large Cap Growth Fund (LCGNX). Large, high-quality growth stocks have been in vogue since the early 2010s, though that doesn't explain why Golan's fund has excelled versus its peers. How to invest in large growth stocks — and 4 top picksTo impress Golan, stocks must have scale or other structural advantages that lead to success over his three- to five-year investing horizon. Below are four companies the leading fund manager is especially bullish about, along with the ticker, market capitalization, sector, and thesis for each.
Persons: Jim Golan, Golan, William Blair Large, David Ricci, Morningstar, , Golan isn't Organizations: Growth, Business, Microsoft, Nvidia
It was under the tutelage of legendary investor Peter Lynch that Sullivan developed the edge that has served him in his career. The numbers Today, Sullivan manages the Putnam Investments Core Equity Fund (PMYYX) , a multicap fund with $4.4 billion in assets that he started in 2010. "The numbers are good," Sullivan said. Ultimately, Sullivan said he's learned a lot from other investors, noting the good stock pickers have had "pretty eclectic" approaches that helped them outperform the market over time. "And I found the good fortune over the decades to be around pretty good stock pickers, pretty good money managers."
Persons: Gerard Sullivan, Peter Lynch, Sullivan, Lynch, hadn't, , Arthur Yeager, PMYYX, Morningstar, It's, Yeager, Tesla, it's, that's, Rajesh Subramaniam, he's, I'm, That's Organizations: Fidelity, Columbia Business School, Magellan Fund, Putnam Investments, Equity, Pacific Gas & Electric, CMS Energy, Companies, Nvidia, FedEx Locations: Brooklyn, U.S, California, Michigan, Pinterest
This month's rout in smallcap stocks has erased the Russell 2000's sparkling first quarter gain, and the benchmark index for smaller shares could face further trouble ahead so long as interest rates are left unchanged. A hotter-than-expected March inflation report on Wednesday pushed investors on Wall Street to extend out expectations for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut to September from June, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool . The Fed's last interest rate increase in the current cycle was in July, 2023. Servicing debt Hall specifies that the risk to smallcaps is tied to the effect of higher interest rates on refinancing needs. "Higher for longer [interest rates have] generally been good for small cap stocks.
Persons: Russell, Smallcaps, They're, Jill Carey Hall, Hall, Steven DeSanctis, DeSanctis Organizations: Wall, Federal, Bank of America, Bank of, Jefferies Locations: U.S
From late October through March, the S&P 500 enjoyed a virtually uninterrupted 27.6% rally based on better-than-expected earnings and economic data. And while it's still well below the dot-com bubble levels, it's still too close for comfort for many investors. Related story"Those higher rates are starting to push back on elevated valuations for stocks right now," Saglimbene said. "They're all much cheaper on an earnings basis than those Magnificent 7 companies," Saglimbene said. "So I think if we avoid a recession this year, the narrative will change to a broadening of companies and sectors that can participate in earnings growth this year."
Persons: aren't, Anthony Saglimbene, Rick Pitcairn, Pitcairn, it's, we've, Raheel Siddiqui, Neuberger Berman, Siddiqui, Jon Wolfenbarger, Albert Edwards, Bill Smead, James Ragan, DA Davidson, Ragan, Saglimbene, Indrani, she's, De, Davidson, Siddiqui's Organizations: Ameriprise, Business, DA, FTSE Russell, Investors Locations: Ameriprise
How the corporate America is handling sticky inflation and the prospect of higher interest rates will be top of mind for investors in the week ahead, after this week's choppy moves. The first-quarter earnings season, which kicked off Friday, will give Wall Street insight into how businesses expect to weather an environment of elevated interest rates. More macro data, such as U.S. retail sales, will give insight into how the consumer is handling higher pricing pressures. First-quarter earnings season underway The corporate earnings season kicks into high gear in the week ahead. This week, the small cap Russell 2000 is on track for a losing week, down by more than 1%.
Persons: Bob Doll, CNBC's, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, FactSet, Robert Haworth, Haworth, Charles Schwab, Johnson, D.R, KeyCorp Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Exxon Mobil, Costco, Apple, Crossmark, Investments, Investors, Bank of America, Consumer, U.S . Bank, Index, Retail, T Bank, Housing, Manufacturing, Hunt Transport Services, United Airlines, Johnson, Bank of New York Mellon, UnitedHealth Group, Northern Trust, CSX, Discover Financial Services, Prologis, U.S . Bancorp, Philadelphia Fed, American Express, Procter, Gamble, Fifth Third Bancorp, Schlumberger Locations: America, China, NAHB, Vegas Sands, U.S, Horton
Hedge funds are dumping stocks at the fastest pace in three months as what's often called " the smart money " stepped up bearish wagers against equities amid the recent pullback. The professionals sold global stocks on a net basis for a second straight week last week, driven almost entirely by short sales, according to Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage data. It marked the biggest selling week for hedge funds since mid-January, the data showed. Its hedge fund clients sold stocks for a fifth consecutive week last week, exiting shares across small-, mid- and large-cap companies. The S & P 500 declined nearly 1%, its biggest weekly loss since early January, although the equity benchmark is still only 1.7% below its record high.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Bahnsen, Goldman, Jean Boivin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of, Dow, Bahnsen Group, P Retail, Traders, Fed, BlackRock Investment Institute Locations: U.S
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