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Almost all Federal Reserve officials at their June meeting indicated further tightening is likely, if at a slower pace than the rapid-fire rate increases that had characterized monetary policy since early 2022, according to minutes released Wednesday. Policymakers decided against a rate rise amid concerns over economic growth, even though most members think further hikes are on the way. Citing the lagged impact of policy and other concerns, they saw room to skip the June meeting after enacting 10 straight rate increases. Most recently, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge saw just a 0.3% increase in May, though it was still reflecting a 4.6% annual rate. Fed officials have stressed the importance of reducing that disparity as they look to tamp down the demand that pushed inflation higher.
Persons: hesitance, firming, Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic Organizations: Federal Reserve, Market, Market Committee, Fed
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDebt ceiling uncertainty leads to volatility, says fmr. Atlanta Fed presidentFormer Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss the White House meeting to discuss the Federal Reserve's hiking cycle, the debt ceiling, and what a default could mean for the U.S. economy.
The Federal Reserve's policy pendulum has swung back to inflation fighting. "The view is based on banking sector stress remaining contained, the economic expansion continuing and core inflation remaining stubbornly high." A cooling crisis Indeed, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other central bankers in late February and early March were indicating chances of half-point rate hikes . Watching the banks, and the market To be sure, the banking situation remains in flux and could yet shape Fed policy. At the same time, the two-year Treasury note yield, which is most sensitive to Fed policy moves, has jumped about half a percentage point over the past two weeks.
Stocks slip as focus falls back on Fed
  + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The Fed's "beige book" of economic conditions is published later on Wednesday and appearances are due from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams. Markets are pricing an 86% chance the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points at the May meeting, and that wasn't swayed terribly much by conflicting outlooks from two non-voting Fed officials on Tuesday. St Louis Fed President James Bullard told Reuters the Fed ought to keep raising rates to subdue persistent inflation. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told CNBC he thinks the Fed should hike one more time then pause to consider the next move. The prospect of peak rates has been applying downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.
Morning Bid: Inflation 'blip' or brave new world?
  + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
U.S. Federal Reserve officials wrestled on Thursday with whether recent data showing inflation, jobs and spending all hotter than expected was a flash in the pan. "It could be that progress has stalled, or it is possible that the numbers released last month were a blip," said Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic urged a "slow and steady" course of policy response. The resilience of stock markets more generally to the week's bond market quake is notable and slightly puzzling - with implied volatility in bonds (.MOVE) climbing sharply while stock market equivalents (.VIX) subside. Two-year U.S. inflation expectations in the Treasury market climbed to 3% from 2% since early last month.
Solar energy names First Solar and SolarEdge Technologies both made the list of this week's biggest gainers. First Solar was this week's top performer, with shares popping 23.2% following strong guidance for 2023. More than half of analysts covering the stock rate it a buy, but also see it coming down slightly from current levels. Software company Salesforce was also one of this week's notable gainers, with the stock on Thursday having their best day since 2020 following a blowout earnings report. Several non-energy materials stocks were also strong performers this week, with Steel Dynamics and Mosaic gaining 12.5% and 9.4%, respectively.
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Hawkish sentiment from Federal Reserve officials weighed on stocks and buoyed Treasury yields, giving markets a disappointing start to March. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Wednesday he's "open-minded" about raising interest rates by either 25 or 50 basis points. Kashkari, who is a voting member on the Federal Open Market Committee, added he might hike rates even further. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Hawkish sentiment from Federal Reserve officials weighed on stocks and buoyed Treasury yields, giving markets a disappointing start to March. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Wednesday he's "open-minded" about raising interest rates by either 25 or 50 basis points. Kashkari, who is a voting member on the Federal Open Market Committee, added he might hike rates even further. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
Morning Bid: Powell's state of the union
  + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Jerome Powell makes his first speech since the Fed's latest quarter-point interest rate rise last week. More importantly, it's his first chance to comment on Friday's seemingly blockbuster U.S. employment report for January. Perhaps just as significantly, they now price year-end Fed rates higher than the 4.5-4.75% range they are at right now. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic on Monday said of the jobs readout: "It'll probably mean we have to do a little more work." Investors will watch Biden's State of the Union with one eye on the potentially destabilising debt ceiling standoff with Congress.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,898.57 per ounce, as of 0234 GMT. But we see gold continuing to rise despite cooling inflation because the market is looking at a lower dollar and smaller interest rate hikes," said Edward Meir, metals analyst, Marex. Gold is seen as an inflation hedge, but higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the asset. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank president Raphael Bostic said the inflation data may allow the Fed to scale back to quarter-point rate hikes at its upcoming meeting. Spot silver edged 0.1% higher to $23.79, platinum gained 0.1% to $1,068.79 while palladium slipped 0.6% to $1,780.91.
Investors in the week ahead will focus on how much inflation and the slowing economy have chiseled away at corporate profits, as companies including Goldman Sachs , Netflix and Procter & Gamble report earnings. "This is going to be the start of the clock ticking on an earnings recession," said Amanda Agati, chief investment officer of PNC Asset Management Group. Economic recession talk heats up "There's never been a recession without an earnings recession since World War II," Agati said. Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial, said this coming earnings week could be an important step towards assessing the health of corporate balance sheets. Week ahead calendar Monday Martin Luther King Jr. Day Markets closed Tuesday Earnings: Goldman Sachs , Morgan Stanley , Citizens Financial, United Airlines, Interactive Brokers 8:30 a.m.
[1/3] A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 5, 2023. The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) is expected to show December's headline inflation at 6.5% versus 7.1% in November. "Inflation and what the Fed's response to it is still remains the number one focus and anxiety for the market," said Manulife's Theoret. "The risk going into Thursday is really that the market is more vulnerable to an upside surprise in inflation. U.S. crude settled up 0.66% at $75.12 per barrel and Brent finished at $80.10, up 0.56% on the day.
Then Fed officials get on the tape say they're going to keep raising rates and keep them high until hell freezes over. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Monday said the central bank should raise interest rates above 5% and stay there for "a long time." Inflation data continues to show signs of cooling, but it's still high, and the Fed doesn't want to declare victory so they keep jawboning the markets down. The source of tension is that the trading community doesn't want to believe the Fed, and many are arguing the Fed is using stale data. "Wall Street does not believe the story being spun by the Fed," Harry Katica from Saut Strategy told his clients.
Other speakers include Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Monday. On Thursday, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and St. Louis Fed President Bullard all speak at separate events. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Boston Fed President Susan Collins have appearances Friday. The most important inflation report in the week ahead is the consumer price index, released Thursday. Import prices 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10:00 a.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari 10:20 a.m. Philadelphia Fed's Harker 9:00 a.m. Boston Fed President Susan Collins
This week, bond yields also came off their highs and were sharply lower, paving the way for gains in tech and growth shares. They include Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, New York Fed President John Williams and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari to name a few. Hogan said that group includes Bullard, Brainard and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Many strategists are calling the move higher a bear market rally, and some expect it will fizzle in December while others say it could continue into the new year. Friday Earnings: JD.com, Foot Locker, Buckle 8:40 a.m. Boston Fed President Susan Collins 10:00 a.m.
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAfter the latest rate hike, fmr. Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart says policy is moving to 'tactical phase'Former Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart breaks down the Fed's next move. With CNBC's Dennis Lockhart and the Fast Money traders, Steve Grasso, Michael Contopolous, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami.
"There will be impacts, there’s correlations ... some market volatility, and then how it weighs in the global growth picture," said Paul Malloy, head of municipals at Vanguard. The wild swings in the pound have ricocheted across currency markets, where volatility was already climbing. According to the widely watched Deutsche Bank Currency Volatility Index , volatility across currencies on Wednesday hit its highest level since the March 2020 COVID-19- induced market meltdown, jumping more than 20% from levels last week. Closely followed indicators of financial stress remain contained. U.S. stock market volatility as measured by the "fear index," the VIX (.VIX), has also climbed in recent days but remains below its 2022 highs.
The S & P 500, Dow and Nasdaq were all down sharply for the week. The S & P was down 4.6%, ending the week at 3,693. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard , St. Louis Fed President James Bullard , San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman are among the speakers. Other global central banks joined the Fed in raising rates, and interest rates around the world rose in tandem. If those levels break, the S & P could touch 3,385 before the selling is over, he said.
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed in new phase that's beyond neutral, fmr. Atlanta Fed President Lockhart saysFormer Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart on today's Fed decision. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Karen Finerman and Dan Nathan.
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