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The Fed's big rate cut won't stop a recession, economist David Rosenberg says. Rosenberg's bearish call comes one day after the Federal Reserve delivered a jumbo 50 basis point interest rate cut, the Fed's first rate cut since 2020. AdvertisementBut Rosenberg isn't backing down, likening 2024 to 2007, right before the economy slowed and entered a painful recession. He added: "Half the country is in recession right now when we apply data science to the commentary." AdvertisementAs for the soaring stock market, Rosenberg says investors should heed the warning signs coming out of the bond market.
Persons: David Rosenberg, He's, Rosenberg, , Rosenberg's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, BLS
Americans' net worth hit a record $163.8 trillion in Q2, driven by a surge in real estate and stock prices. Data from the Federal Reserve shows a nearly 2% increase In net worth from Q1, with real estate leading the gains. Record highs in Americans' net worth could drive a "wealth effect" that leads to the economy's continued resilience. AdvertisementNew data from the Federal Reserve reveals that Americans are the richest they've ever been. A $1.8 trillion increase in real estate valued and a $700 billion gain in stocks drove the increase.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, " Rosenberg, It's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, National, Census Locations: States
The judge who oversaw the trial later said: "Trump 'raped' her as many people commonly understand the word 'rape.'" AdvertisementBut the lawyers who won Weinstein's appeal told Business Insider that what worked for their client probably wouldn't work for Trump. In the May 2023 verdict, the jury found Trump liable for sexual abuse and defamation and awarded Carroll $5 million in damages. In the second trial, earlier this year, a separate jury said Trump owed Carroll an additional $83 million in defamation damages. AdvertisementInstead, it needed to find it was "more probable than not" that Trump sexually assaulted Carroll, a standard far more common in civil cases.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Trump, Jean Carroll, Harvey Weinstein, John Sauer, he'll, Carroll, Sauer, It's, Weinstein, Barry Kamins, Kamins, Marci Hamilton, Goodman, Lewis Kaplan, Jessica Leeds, Natasha Stoynoff, Brittainy Newman, Diane Kiesel, Stoynoff, you've, Kaplan, Roberta Kaplan, Roberta Kaplan's, Jane Rosenberg Trump's, Arthur Aidala, shouldn't Organizations: Service, Business, Appeals, 2nd, Mar, New York state's, Trump, Hollywood, Child USA, New, Leeds, York state's, Stoynoff, New York Law School, REUTERS Locations: Manhattan, Lago, New York, Los Angeles, Brooklyn, Aidala, York, Leeds, Bergdorf's, Carroll, Carroll's, Hamilton
QB Tiers rangesTier Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Movement Moved down Moved up New to Tiers Not in '23 Tiers Same tier Expand all Collapse all Loading Try changing or resetting your filters to see more. Photo: Ryan Kang / Getty Images Tiers over time Annual votes by tier Tier 1 Same tier 2 Joe Burrow Bengals Cincinnati 2024 Tier Voting Avg. Photo: Kathryn Riiley / Getty Images Tiers over time Annual votes by tier Tier 3 Same tier 18 Deshaun Watson Browns Cleveland 2024 Tier Voting Avg. Photo: Cooper Neill / Getty Images Tiers over time Annual votes by tier Tier 3 Same tier T20 Geno Smith Seahawks Seattle 2024 Tier Voting Avg. Photo: Chris Unger / Zuffa LLC / Getty Images Tiers over time Annual votes by tier Tier 4 Same tier T26 Anthony Richardson Colts Indianapolis 2024 Tier Voting Avg.
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"Incredibly, the Fed raised rates 500 basis points under a false presumption — by over one million — of just how robust the jobs market was," Rosenberg said. AdvertisementIn addition to the yearly revisions, monthly payroll revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics have also been poor more recently. Related storiesOne is a model that aims to enhance the yield curve as a recession indicator by taking into account US businesses' ability to repay debts and the Fed's National Financial Conditions Index. A soft-landing outcome, where the Fed avoids sending the economy into recession, is also still the consensus view on Wall Street. With inflation down under 3% and rate cuts almost surely on the way, such a scenario is still seemingly possible.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez, Vane, Chuck Prince, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, Treasury, Pantheon, Labor Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
The US looks poised to enter a recession, thanks to troubling trends in household finances. Economist David Rosenberg pointed to rising debt levels and shrinking incomes among American households. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe US still looks poised to enter a recession, as rising debt and shrinking incomes are setting the economy up for a downturn.
Persons: David Rosenberg, , Rosenberg Research who's, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business
Disappointing economic data recently generated worries that the Fed missed an opportunity at its meeting last week to, if not cut rates outright, send a clearer signal that easing is on the way. In the past, the Fed has implemented just nine such cuts, and all have come amid extreme duress, according to Bank of America. Lacking a catalyst for an intermeeting cut, the Fed is nonetheless expected to cut rates almost as swiftly as it hiked from March 2022-July 2023. Why wait?”LaVorgna, though, isn’t convinced the Fed is in a life-or-death battle against recession. Still, any quakes in the data, such as Friday’s downside surprise to the nonfarm payrolls numbers, could ignite recession talk quickly.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Steven Blitz, , Andrew Hollenhorst, , ’ ”, Michael Gapen, Powell, Joseph LaVorgna, , “ They’ll, isn’t, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg Organizations: Federal Reserve, TS Lombard, Fed, Citigroup, Bank of America, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Nikko
The economist and market strategist David Rosenberg took a lot of heat for predicting that the Federal Reserve’s big increase in interest rates would tip the U.S. economy into recession. “I spent most of the past year being absolutely beaten up,” he told me last week. “I had email from clients that you would not believe, and many cancellations.”The latest economic data, including a sharp slowdown in job growth in July, is indicating that Rosenberg may well have been right all along. I asked him if he feels vindicated. Stocks also slumped in Europe and were off to a bad start in the United States on Monday as I was finishing this newsletter.
Persons: David Rosenberg, , , Rosenberg, Stocks Organizations: Federal, Nikkei Locations: U.S, Europe, United States
Investors are de-risking their portfolios amid recession fears, driving a stock-market sell-off. AdvertisementThe stock market's recession playbook is in full swing as suddenly panicked investors look to aggressively de-risk their portfolios amid fears of a downturn. Investors are questioning whether the Federal Reserve waited too long to cut interest rates and whether it's too late to fend off recession. AdvertisementDetailed below are four outperforming areas of the market that make it clear investors are employing the recession playbook:1. "Next's year's pricing makes sense if the US economy falls into recession and/or inflation tumbles below the Fed's 2% target," analysts said of the market's rate-cut expectations.
Persons: , it's, they've, David Sekera, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Ned Davis Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Treasury, Bloomberg, Morningstar, Global, ETF, Rosenberg Research, Ned Davis Research
How the 9/11 Plea Deal Came Undone
  + stars: | 2024-08-04 | by ( Carol Rosenberg | Eric Schmitt | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: 1 min
In the space of three days last week, the Sept. 11 case was rocked by two decisions that stunned victims’ families and jolted a political debate. First, a Pentagon official authorized a plea agreement meant to resolve the case with lifetime sentences. Then, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III abruptly canceled the deal, reviving the possibility that the man accused of planning the attacks, Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, and two accused accomplices could someday face a death penalty trial. Suddenly, a case that had mostly drifted from public consciousness in 12 years of pretrial proceedings was back in the spotlight and no closer to the trial that some relatives of the nearly 3,000 victims had been aching for at Guantánamo Bay. This account of those fateful three days is based on interviews and conversations with Pentagon officials, Sept. 11 family members and parties to the case.
Persons: Lloyd J, Austin III, Khalid Shaikh Mohammed Organizations: Pentagon Locations: Guantánamo
Read previewThe US job market has certainly seen better days. AdvertisementThose rate cuts will help pull the job market out of its slowdown — but likely not before the unemployment rate climbs higher, says Oliver Allen, a senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. And even then, it could take time for the effects of rate cuts to fully work their way across the job market, said Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate. AdvertisementSlowdown in the pipelineUntil rate cuts kick in, Allen thinks the joblessness rate has even more room to climb. AdvertisementForward-looking indicators of job market strength have also been flashing signs of incoming weakness.
Persons: , Oliver Allen, Allen, , Mark Hamrick, Hamrick, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Business, Pantheon, Challenger, Gray &, Federal, National Federation of Independent Business
"A 50 basis point Fed cut in September is clearly justified as the labor market is now showing clear signs of softening," said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management. The firm, which has long been saying the Fed will need to cut aggressively this year, expects another 50 basis point cut in November by a 25 basis point cut move in December. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The S & P 500 lost more than 2.5% and Treasury yields plummeted, sending the policy-sensitive 2-year note down more than a quarter percentage point to 3.91%. "It's very possible the Fed alters its inter-meeting communications on the balance of risks to remove all doubt [of] a September rate cut."
Persons: Yung, Yu Ma, David Donabedian, Preston Caldwell, David Rosenberg, Jerome Powell, Jamie Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Labor Statistics, BMO Wealth Management, Wall, Citigroup, CIBC Private Wealth, Morningstar, Rosenberg Research, Harris Financial
Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III on Friday overruled the overseer of the war court at Guantánamo Bay and revoked a plea agreement reached earlier this week with the accused mastermind of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and two alleged accomplices. Gen. Susan K. Escallier, signed a pretrial agreement on Wednesday with Mr. Mohammed, Walid bin Attash and Mustafa al-Hawsawi that exchanged guilty pleas for sentences of at most life in prison. In taking away the authority, Mr. Austin assumed direct oversight of the case and canceled the agreement, effectively reinstating it as a death-penalty case. He left Ms. Escallier in the role of oversight of Guantánamo’s other cases. Because of the stakes involved, the “responsibility for such a decision should rest with me,” Mr. Austin said in an order released Friday night by the Pentagon.
Persons: Lloyd J, Austin III, Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, Susan K, Escallier, Mohammed, Walid bin Attash, Mustafa al, Austin, ” Mr Organizations: Pentagon, Defense Department Locations: Guantánamo, New York City, Pennsylvania, Brig
Plea Deal in 9/11 Case Is Announced in War Court
  + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Carol Rosenberg | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: 1 min
The man accused of plotting the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, appeared in court on Thursday, watching silently as the prosecutor who had pursued his capital case since the beginning formally announced that a plea agreement had been reached that would remove the possibility of the death penalty. The prosecutor, Clayton G. Trivett Jr., also gave the court the sealed and signed agreements between the prisoner, Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, and the Pentagon’s overseer of the war court cases. Disclosure of the agreement in the court at Guantánamo Bay is the first step toward a sentencing hearing before a military panel, which could begin next summer. Prosecutors who had negotiated the agreements with Mr. Mohammed and two accomplices, Walid bin Attash and Mustafa al-Hawsawi, disclosed the deal on Wednesday to family members of the nearly 3,000 people who were killed in the attacks.
Persons: Clayton G, Trivett Jr, Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, Mohammed, Walid bin Attash, Mustafa al Organizations: Prosecutors Locations: Guantánamo
The Justice Department has denied a request by Zacarias Moussaoui, the only prisoner ever convicted in the United States of having ties to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, to serve the remainder of his life sentence in his native France. Mr. Moussaoui had made the application from the supermax prison in Colorado, using a process that is routinely available to foreign nationals held as U.S. prisoners. Then on Wednesday afternoon, two relatives of people killed in the attacks said they were notified by the Justice Department that the request was denied. “Our office appreciates your concerns and comments regarding Zacarias Moussaoui,” the email said. “I am notifying you that Mr. Moussaoui’s application to transfer to France was denied by the United States on July 26, 2024.”No explanation was offered for the delay in notification.
Persons: Zacarias Moussaoui, Moussaoui, Zacarias, , Marco Rubio, Rick Scott, Biden, General Merrick B, Garland Organizations: Justice Department Locations: United States, France, Colorado, Florida
The man accused of plotting the attacks of Sept. 11 and two of his accomplices have agreed to plead guilty to conspiracy charges in exchange for a life sentence rather than a death-penalty trial at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, prosecutors said Wednesday. A senior Pentagon official approved the deal for Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, Walid bin Attash and Mustafa al-Hawsawi, according to Defense Department officials with knowledge of the agreement. The men have been in U.S. custody since 2003. But the case had become mired in more than a decade of pretrial proceedings that focused on the question of whether their torture in secret C.I.A. Word of the deal emerged in a letter from war court prosecutors to family members of victims of the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001.
Persons: Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, Walid bin Attash, Mustafa al, , Aaron C Organizations: Pentagon, Defense, Locations: Guantánamo Bay, Cuba
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed should go and cut rates this week, says Rosenberg Research presidentDavid Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Rosenberg's take on the Federal Reserve's move this week, why the economy is in need of rate cuts sooner than September, and the focus on central bank meetings around the world.
Persons: Rosenberg, David Rosenberg Organizations: Fed, Rosenberg Research, Federal
But it's hard to argue against the track record of his most preferred valuation measure — total market cap of non-financial stocks to total revenue of those stocks — when it comes to long-term stock-market returns. Unfortunately for investors, the measure just hit an all-time high, topping levels seen in 1929, 2000, 2008, and 2022. Here's the metric:AdvertisementHussman Funds"Last week, our most reliable measure of stock market valuations hit the highest extreme in history," Hussman wrote in a July 20 commentary. AdvertisementWhile Hussman's valuation measure doesn't necessitate near-term losses, there is some evidence that stocks could soon face downside. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls.
Persons: , John Hussman, Hussman, Jeremy Grantham Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Locations: recessionary
Read previewManhattan prosecutors are fighting to keep Donald Trump's September 18 hush-money sentencing on track, saying in a new filing Thursday that it was "harmless error" if evidence he's now immune from entered the case. But Trump would have been indicted and convicted even if evidence the defense calls "official" were removed, the filing adds. AdvertisementThe filing argues that Trump is wrong in now stamping much of the prosecutor's case "official act evidence." But these tweets describe unofficial acts unrelated to Trump's official duties, and for which he has no immunity, the prosecution filing now argues. Lawyers for Trump did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the prosecution filing.
Persons: , Donald Trump's, Attorney Alvin Bragg, Trump, Stormy Daniels, SCOTUS, Donald Trump, Jane Rosenberg, Bragg, Matthew Colangelo, Daniels, Michael Cohen, Hope Hicks, Trump's, Cohen, Madeleine Westerhout, caselaw, Juan Merchan Organizations: Service, Attorney, Business, Trump Organization, Manhattan, White House, Trump Locations: Manhattan
I’m still waiting to wake up and realize that it was all a dream: the debate, the attempted assassination, President Biden’s Rehoboth reckoning, the quicksilver ascent of Vice President Kamala Harris. I have teachers texting and calling me from out of state who have never donated to a political candidate asking how to do it the right way to ensure it gets to the Harris campaign. It feels very “hopey changey.” I tuned in (along with hundreds of thousands of others) to watch Harris speak to the staff at campaign headquarters and walked away inspired. The transition from Biden to Harris has been remarkably seamless and successful. Her initial remarks on Monday were strong, powerful and clearly her own words, not things cribbed from the previous campaign.
Persons: Frank Bruni, Mallory McMorrow, Simon Rosenberg, , I’m, Biden’s Rehoboth, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, God, Harris, Biden Organizations: Democratic Locations: Michigan
Research shows taking a financial education class in high school does pay off. "Let's not leave financial education to TikTok," she said. Let's not leave financial education to TikTok. Yanely Espinal director of educational outreach at Next GenMany studies also show there is a strong connection between financial literacy and financial well-being. In addition, a study by the Brookings Institution in 2018 found that teenage financial literacy is positively correlated with asset accumulation and net worth by age 25.
Persons: dem Rosenberg, dem Rosenberg Bernhard Gademann, It's, Gademann, Tim Ranzetta, Yanely Espinal, Espinal, Let's, Yanely, Christiana Stoddard, Carly Urban Organizations: dem, Finance, Research, Tyton Partners, CNBC, Financial Wellness, National Endowment, Financial Education, Financial, Investor Education Foundation, Brookings Institution Locations: St . Gallen, Switzerland
Discover it® Cash Back OverviewIf you prefer earning cash back without paying an annual fee, the Discover it® Cash Back is one of the best cash back credit cards out there. Discover it® Cash Back Benefits and FeaturesThe Discover it Cash Back is a fairly straightforward card. Like the Discover it® Cash Back, it has no annual fee and Discover will match your cash back earned after your first account year. Like the Discover it® Cash Back, the Citi Custom Cash℠ Card has no annual fee. Discover it® Cash Back Frequently Asked QuestionsWhat credit score do I need to be approved for the Discover it® Cash Back?
Persons: you’ve, You'll, That's, you've, you'll, Chase, There's Organizations: Business, Citi, Walmart, Discover, American Cancer Society, Children's Miracle Network, Diabetes Research Foundation, World Wildlife Fund, Cash Locations: Discover
Types of savings accountsRegular savings accountsRegular savings accounts are the type of savings account you could expect to open at a brick-and-mortar bank. High-yield savings accountsWhen compared to regular savings accounts, high-yield savings accounts pay significantly higher rates. Money market accounts and savings accounts differ in two main ways: Money market accounts frequently come with debit cards, ATM cards, and checks, while savings accounts generally have a lower opening deposit requirement. A high annual percentage yield is especially important if you are looking for a high-yield savings account, rather than a regular savings account at an in-person bank. How to open a savings account: FAQsHow long does it take to open a savings account?
Persons: We've, you'll, it's, Banks Organizations: Mobile, Western Alliance Bank, Yield, Federal Reserve Locations: They're
The past week's tumultuous stock market action harkened back to the dark days of 2000 as the dot-com bubble was bursting, according to economist and strategist David Rosenberg. With tech leaders sagging and investors heading for cover, the widely followed market bear sees similarities between two eras that showed overheated investor sentiment and an overvalued market. "The massive daily swings reflect a manic market becoming unglued," the head of Rosenberg Research wrote in his daily market note Friday. "The action is highly reminiscent of what happened in the immediate aftermath of the Nasdaq rolling off the bubble highs in March 2000." Alfred E. Neuman feeling when I look at the action in the equity market and the reasons for this relentless exuberance," Rosenberg said.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Alfred E, Neuman, Rosenberg, Russell Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Nasdaq, Tech, Nvidia, Microsoft, Dow Jones, American, of, Investors, Investors Intelligence
waterboarded the man accused of plotting the Sept. 11 attacks, the agency offered explanations of how he withstood the technique 183 times at a secret overseas prison. The prisoner, Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, was strapped to a gurney with his head tilted down and a cloth covering his face. Somehow, the theory went, he realized that his captors would pour water on the cloth for at most 40 seconds at a time. So he used his fingers to count until he could breathe again as he experienced the sensation of drowning. This week, at a hearing in the case, Mr. Mohammed’s lawyer, Gary D. Sowards, offered an alternative explanation while questioning a psychologist who administered the waterboarding.
Persons: Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, gurney, Mohammed’s, Gary D
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