"Most luxury retailers don't think Hong Kong will return to the dizzy levels of 2014 when the market here peaked," said Simon Smith, Savills' senior director of research and consultancy in Hong Kong.
Morgan Stanley (MS.N) forecast Hong Kong visitor numbers this year will reach just 70% of 2018 arrivals.
It estimates retail sales will grow 15%, holding at around 80% of retail trade from the pre-COVID year.
That outstripped total Hong Kong retail sales from a peak hit in 2013 at HK$494.5 billion ($63.0 billion), according to the city's statistics department.
($1 = 6.8510 yuan)($1 = 7.8498 Hong Kong dollars)Reporting by Farah Master, Jessie Pang, Anne Marie Roantree, Angel Woo and Donny Kwok in Hong Kong, Sophie Yu in Beijing, and Mimosa Spencer in Paris; Writing by Miyoung Kim; Editing by Tom HogueOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.