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TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares were trading mixed Tuesday as investors looked ahead to a week that could see more swings in financial markets, including key reports on U.S. consumer confidence and the job market. In currency trading, the U.S. dollar rose to 150.16 Japanese yen from 149.04 yen. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 49.45 points, or 1.2%, to close at 4,166.82 on Monday. Because it’s the most valuable stock on Wall Street, it is also the most influential stock on the S&P 500. Big Tech soared much more than the rest of the market early this year, which helped to lift the S&P 500 but also meant big expectations for continued growth.
Persons: Australia's, Korea's Kospi, Brent, Stan Choe, Damian J, Troise Organizations: TOKYO, Nikkei, Bank, Bank of Japan, U.S . Federal Reserve, U.S, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Apple, Big Tech, Treasury, Fed, Workers, U.S ., CVS Health, Pfizer, Starbucks, Traders, Benchmark Locations: Hong, Shanghai, Japan’s, Israel, Iran
REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. But Asian markets' first chance to react to that will be Thursday. But if the yuan is under pressure, it is nothing compared to the onslaught Japan's yen is facing. The currency and bond market reactions to the BOJ's policy tweak could not have been more different - the yen fell the most since April, while Japanese bond yields surged to a fresh decade-high. World, U.S. and Asian stocks all fell for a third month in a row, bond yields surged and financial conditions tightened significantly.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Jamie McGeever, China's Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, U.S . Federal, U.S, Treasury, PMI, Tuesday, China PMI, Indonesia CPI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, India, South Korea, Indonesia, Korean, Hong Kong, China
Big government will drive the next market cycle
  + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
Growth picked up while quiescent inflation permitted interest rates to fall. Bereft of government support, central banks tried to stimulate their economies by pushing interest rates to new lows. That means interest rates will struggle to return to the ultra-low levels seen after 2008. The first takeaway is that higher debt levels, inflation and interest rates should be bad for bonds. Vincent Deluard of StoneX has proposed a division between intangible and tangible companies.
Persons: Kevin Lamarque, ” Ronald Reagan’s, Milton Friedman –, Britain’s Margaret Thatcher –, Reaganomics ”, Réka Juhász, Nathan J, Lane, Dani Rodrik, government’s, Vincent Deluard, StoneX, Lockheed Martin, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Republicans, Capitol, REUTERS, Reuters, Bank, Asset, Monetary Fund, Treasury, Capital Economics, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Capital, Facebook, Meta, Lockheed, Micron Technology, U.S, Congress, Nasdaq, Energy, Exxon Mobil, Labour Party, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, , Ukraine, Covid, Europe, United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Japan
A 1000 yen note on a tray at a souvenir shop in Hakone, Japan, on Tuesday, Nov. 22, 2022. The yen hovered near a two-week high on Tuesday, boosted by a report that the Bank of Japan, or BOJ, could further tweak a key bond yield policy tool when it announces its monetary decision later in the day. The dollar looked set to end the month largely unchanged against a basket of currencies, having lost some steam after a roughly 2.5% gain in September. Against the euro, the yen last stood at 158.24, having similarly risen to an over one-week high of 157.70 per euro on Monday. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar shed 0.09% to $0.6368 and was headed for a monthly loss of more than 1%.
Persons: Chris Weston, Thierry Wizman, Sterling Organizations: Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Nikkei, Australian, Bank of England, European Central Bank, New Zealand Locations: Hakone, Japan, Gaza, Germany, Wells Fargo
REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Global gold demand excluding over-the-counter (OTC) trading slipped 6% in the third quarter as central bank buying fell short of last year's record levels and consumption by jewellers declined, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Tuesday. Gold demand shot to an 11-year high in 2022 due to the biggest central bank purchases on record. "With geopolitical tensions on the rise and an expectation for continued robust central bank buying, gold demand may surprise to the upside," said Louise Street, senior markets analyst at the WGC. Central bank demand totalled 337.1 tons, down from a record 458.8 tons a year before. QUARTERLY GOLD SUPPLY AND DEMAND (tonnes)** Source: World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends Q3 2023Reporting by Polina Devitt; Editing by Jan HarveyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Denis Balibouse, Louise Street, Polina Devitt, Jan Harvey Organizations: REUTERS, Gold Council, Gold, Thomson Locations: Mendrisio, Switzerland, Central, Europe
Reuters GraphicsEuropean funds have effectively returned nothing this year after two down years, Morningstar data shows. Government bond funds have fared even worse and are set for three years of losses in both the U.S. and Europe. Bond yields rise as prices fall, and vice versa. Reuters GraphicsBank of America said there were $5.6 billion of inflows to long-dated Treasury funds last week, the largest on record. ICI data shows that U.S. money market funds have ballooned to $5.6 trillion in assets, from $4.6 trillion in October last year.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Stefano Fiorini, Oliver Blackbourn, Janus Henderson, You've, Jonas Goltermann, Max Kettner, Harry Robertson, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters Graphics, Morningstar, U.S, Generali Investments Partners, Reserve, Reuters, Treasury, Citi, ICE, Fed, Capital Economics, Investment Company Institute, Reuters Graphics Bank of America, Reuters Graphics Reuters, ICI, HSBC, Thomson Locations: Europe, U.S
Oil prices rose in early Asian trade on Tuesday ahead of global central bank meetings and as tensions in the Middle East remained high. Israeli troops and tanks attacked Gaza's main northern city from the east and west on Monday, three days after it began ground operations in the Palestinian enclave. Traders were also keeping a close eye on global monetary policy, with rate-setting meetings of major central banks scheduled for this week. The U.S. Federal Reserve will meet on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday to discuss monetary policy and decide on potential future inflation-busting interest rate hikes. Investors are also expecting Chinese purchasing managers index data and third quarter gross domestic products figures from Hong Kong and Taiwan.
Organizations: Brent, West Texas, Traders, Bank of Japan, Nikkei, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Investors Locations: Gaza, Israel, Hong Kong, Taiwan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe surprise might be that central banks 'sit on their hands' again: Macquarie Private BankMartin Lakos of Macquarie Private Bank says inflation data has been mixed but "heading in the right direction overall."
Persons: Macquarie Private Bank Martin Lakos Organizations: Macquarie Private Bank
Looking ahead, the ongoing pass-through of the European Central Bank's monetary policy tightening, still no reversal of the inventory cycle and new geopolitical uncertainties will continue weighing on the German economy, Brzeski said. "The German economy looks set to remain in the twilight zone between minor contraction and stagnation not only this year but also next year," Brzeski said. The contraction in the third quarter is not seen as an outlier as Commerzbank expects the German economy to contract again in the winter half-year. Economists will pay close attention to national inflation data from Germany and Spain, as they are published one day before the euro zone inflation data release. Euro zone inflation is expected to ease to 3.2% in October from 4.3% in September, according to economists polled by Reuters.
Persons: Arnd, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, optimists, Joerg Kraemer, Claus Vistesen, Maria Martinez, Miranda Murray, Rachel More, Miral Fahmy, Angus MacSwan Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Gross, Reuters, ING, European Central, Macroeconomics, Thomson Locations: Konstanz, Germany, Spain
People walk in front of the bank of Japan building in Tokyo, Japan, April 7, 2023. REUTERS/Androniki Christodoulou/ File photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 31 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Will the BOJ spook markets on Halloween and the final trading day of the month by effectively tightening monetary policy further with another tweak to its 'yield curve control' policy? Inflation in Japan has finally taken off, and for the first time in decades, appears to be sticking well above 2%. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- Bank of Japan policy decision- China PMIs (October)- Japan unemployment, industrial production, retail sales (September)By Jamie McGeever;Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Androniki, Jamie McGeever, Will, Government Bonds, China PMIs Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of, U.S . Federal, Bank of England, Nikkei, Japan, Government, PMI, Bank of Japan, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Taiwan, China
A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan would also be announcing their verdict on rates later in the week. Of the 245 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings so far, 77.6% have beaten earnings estimates, as per LSEG data. ET, Dow e-minis were up 188 points, or 0.58%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 25 points, or 0.6%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 101 points, or 0.71%. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju SamuelOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Susannah Streeter, Hargreaves Lansdown, Eli Lilly, Amruta Khandekar, Shashwat Chauhan, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Hargreaves, U.S . Treasury, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Apple, Pfizer, Dow e, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Gaza, United States, Bengaluru
The BOJ sets a target of around 0% for the 10-year yield under YCC. Since then, rising global bond yields and persistent inflation have put the BOJ in a tight spot with the 10-year JGB yield threatening to breach the 1% cap. The 10-year bond yield rose to a fresh decade high of 0.955% on Tuesday. Sources told Reuters last week the BOJ could debate further tweaks to YCC at the Oct. 30-31 meeting to relax its grip on the 10-year yield. The BOJ is widely expected to maintain the 0% target for the 10-year yield and that for short-term rates at -0.1%.
Persons: BOJ, Ueda, Ataru Okumura, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of, Nikkei, Nikko Securities, Reuters, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Bank of Japan, Japan
Reuters GraphicsNEARING THE PEAKMany tenants, particularly in the most expensive city Sydney, have already been priced out of houses. PropTrack data showing house rents nationally were unchanged at A$550 per week, or about A$2,380 ($1,508) per month, in the September quarter. Apartment rents nationally jumped 4% during the quarter, double the June quarter rate of increase, to an average of A$520 per week, making them almost as costly. Prices across Australia's entire rental stock rose 7.6% in the third quarter from a year ago, the largest increase since 2009, according to official data, and similar to gains seen in the U.S. where rental costs have also surged. ($1 = 1.5780 Australian dollars)Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Wayne Cole and Jamie FreedOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Lara Weeks, Weeks, Cameron Kusher, Michele Bullock, Christian Postiglione, Tim Beattie, Beattie, Stella Qiu, Wayne Cole, Jamie Freed Organizations: REA, Reuters Graphics, Reserve Bank of Australia, Nationwide, ANZ, Housing, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, Sydney, U.S, Bondi, Australia, Western Australia, Adelaide
Passersby walk past an electric monitor displaying the Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan October 4, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 30 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Asian markets on Monday will also give their initial reaction to news over the weekend of an expected U.S.-Sino summit between presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping next month. But the MSCI emerging market index and Asia ex-Japan index's falls of around 0.6% last week were notably shallower than the MSCI Work index's 2% slide. China's recent economic and market signals, at least, are brightening a little.
Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Japan index's, Bond, JGBs, Diane Craft Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Tech, Investors, Tuesday's Bank of Japan, Bank of, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Malaysia, Asia, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, Taiwan, Hong Kong, U.S, Australia, Bank of Japan, Germany
Despite broad success in bringing inflation down from its highs - the easier bit - prices are still rising faster than most central banks would prefer and hitting their inflation targets is likely to be tough. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which often leads the interest rate cycle, was also forecast to wait until July-September 2024 before cutting. The majority backing no cuts until the second half of 2024 has also grown stronger for the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Indonesia and the Reserve Bank of India. Even the Bank of Japan, the outlier sticking to ultra-loose policy through this entire round of inflation, is now expected to abandon negative interest rates next year. Crucially, most economists agree the first easing steps will not be the beginning of a rapid series of cuts.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Christine Lagarde, Douglas Porter, it's, Nathan Sheets, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Reuters, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Fed, BMO, Reserve Bank of New, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank, Reserve Bank of India, Bank of Japan, Citi, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, BENGALURU, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank Indonesia, Bengaluru, Buenos Aires, Cairo, Istanbul, Johannesburg, London, Shanghai, Tokyo
An intensifying bond rout is piling pressure on the global economy and creating a "tremendously dangerous" outlook for equities, the chief investment officer of Livermore Partners hedge fund said Friday. Bond yields move inversely to prices. That, in turn, has pushed bond yields higher and sapped money from government budgets by raising borrowing costs. In Germany, Europe's largest economy, yields have hit their highest level since the 2011 euro zone debt crisis. "I think that is going to cause a lot of pain moving forward in terms of the economy," Neuhauser said.
Persons: David Neuhauser, Neuhauser, Bond, Kevin Zhao, Scott Heins Organizations: Livermore Partners, CNBC, U.S . Treasury, UBS Asset, New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones Industrial, Getty Locations: Germany, Europe's, Japan, NY, New York City
Barclays (BARC.L), a big UK lender, fell as much as 8% after signalling major cost cuts because of weakness on its home turf. Mark Denham, head of European equities at Carmignac, said high quality companies with high valuations tend to be very vulnerable if they miss earnings. According to Kasper Elmgreen, CIO at Nordea Asset Management, the fact that the economy is now starting to slow is one factor behind investors' harsh treatment of earnings disappointments. Amid the volatility, some investors see a buying opportunity in overly punished stocks. It is an example of a highly valued stock being extra punished for the environment," Denham said.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Angelo Meda, Mark Denham, Denham, Kasper Elmgreen, Elmgreen, Fabio Di Giansante, Carmignac's Denham, Danilo Masoni, Alun John, Joice Alves, Amanda Cooper, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Sanofi, Barclays, Banor SIM, Siemens Energy, Volkswagen, Volvo, Asset Management, Euroland Equity, pharma, Thomson Locations: Milan, Swiss, London
Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsAnd that is reflected in the return of the "term premium," the amorphous amount of compensation investors demand for buying long-dated bonds instead of rolling over bills. A San Francisco Fed model estimates that the term premium on the 10-year Treasury bond has risen around 100 basis points since July. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsAnalysts at Morgan Stanley reckon the term premium and debt sustainability worries could prompt a rethink of the bill-coupon supply balance. Bill supply around these levels would be well down on net issuance of just over $1.6 trillion in fiscal year 2023. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsReuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsIn an ideal world, Treasury would not choose to rely on such short-term funding needs.
Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Morgan Stanley, Bill, Committee's, Jamie McGeever, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Treasury, San, San Francisco Fed, New York Fed, Bank of America, TD Securities, Bills, Reuters, Securities, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, San Francisco
Policymakers meet eight times a year to decide on the bank's monetary policy position, updating its economic outlook at every other meeting. At these meetings, the BOJ policymakers decides on its monetary policy position, which then dictates how the central bank taps the money market. To absorb funds, the Japanese central bank issues and sells bills. Here's how the Bank of Japan conducts its monetary policy. "The objective of the Bank's monetary policy is achieving price stability, which is its mission as stipulated by law.
Persons: Javier Ghersi, it's, , Price, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Getty Images Bank of Japan, Investors, Bank of Japan, Bank of, of, Japan Society of Monetary Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Bank of Japan
Big central banks hit pause, with rate cuts far off
  + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
On Oct. 23, Fed Chair Jay Powell said a strong economy and tight jobs market could warrant more rate rises. Interest rate futures show traders believe the BoE will not cut rates, now at their highest since 2008, until at least June 2024. "The Governing Council’s past interest rate increases continue to be transmitted forcefully into financing conditions," the ECB said, adding it would follow a "data-dependent" approach and future decisions would be based on incoming data. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere told parliament last week interest rates may have peaked. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics8) AUSTRALIAThe Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady at 4.1% for a fourth meeting in October.
Persons: Jonathan Ernst, Jay Powell, BoE, Jonas Gahr Stoere, Michele Bullock, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Alun John, Yoruk Bahceli, Samuel Indyk, Chiara Elisei, Kripa Jayaram, Pasit, Riddhima, Sumanta Sen, Vineet, Amanda Cooper, Giles Elgood Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, UNITED, Reuters, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, BRITAIN, Bank of Canada, BoC, ECB, Norges Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Washington, Japan, hawkish, dovish, NORWAY, SWEDEN Sweden, SWITZERLAND, Swiss, Gaza, JAPAN
Japanese national flag is hoisted atop the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan September 20, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 27 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. This is the backdrop to Friday's open in Asia, where Japanese economic data, bonds, and currency will again be under intense scrutiny ahead of next week's Bank of Japan policy meeting. The main data release in Asia on Friday will be consumer price inflation in Tokyo for September. In China, meanwhile, industrial sector profit figures for the first nine months of the year are on the docket Friday.
Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, JP Morgan, Fumio Kishida, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Nasdaq, week's Bank of Japan, Reuters, Barclays, UBS, Japanese, China's, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, China, YTD, Australia
A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. That was a relief to financial markets, roiled in recent weeks by a surge in government bond yields led by U.S. Treasuries. The central bank reiterated it would reinvest all the cash it receives from maturing bonds it holds under its 1.7 trillion euro pandemic-era bond scheme until the end of 2024. Instead, the ECB kept the emphasis on slowing inflation, raising investors' conviction that September's rate rise was the central bank's last. And inflation risks have not disappeared.
Persons: Heiko Becker, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Piet Christiansen, Gabriele Foa, reinvestments, Marcus Brookes, Sabrina Kanniche, Yoruk Bahceli, Naomi Rovnick, Amanda Cooper, Nick Zieminski Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, ECB, U.S, Treasuries, Reuters, Danske Bank, The Bank of, Algebris, Quilter Investors, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Italy, Copenhagen, Israel, The Bank of Canada, wean, Ukraine
The data reinforces expectations the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will revise up its inflation forecasts when it produces fresh quarterly projections at next week's policy meeting. The Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 2.7% in October from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday, exceeding market forecasts for a 2.5% gain. The so-called "core core" index that strips away both fresh food and fuel prices - closely watched by the BOJ as a gauge of broader price trends - rose 3.8% in October from a year earlier after a 3.9% increase in September, the data showed. "With services inflation continuing to accelerate, it will take a long time before inflation falls back below the BOJ's 2% target." The BOJ remains a global dovish outlier, having maintained ultra-loose policy even as major central banks elsewhere raised interest rates aggressively to fight rampant inflation.
Persons: Androniki, Marcel Thieliant, Takahiko Wada, Shri Navaratnam, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Reuters Graphics, Capital Economics, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, Asia
Bank SEB's Q3 operating profit jumps 42%, beats expectations
  + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
The Nordic bank SEB group logo is seen outside a branch in central Stockholm, Sweden, July 18, 2023. REUTERS/Tom Little Acquire Licensing RightsSTOCKHOLM, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Swedish bank SEB (SEBa.ST) reported a 42% rise in third-quarter operating profit on Wednesday, topping market expectations, but said the positive effect from higher interest rates had come down compared to previous quarters. Sweden's biggest corporate bank said operating profit was 13.0 billion crowns ($1.17 billion) against a year-ago 9.12 billion, beating a mean forecast of 11.0 billion in an LSEG poll of analysts. Banks have seen their income boosted by higher interest rates as central banks scrambled to bring down stubbornly high inflation. The bank, whose main rivals include Handelsbanken, Swedbank and Nordea, said its net interest income rose to 12.3 billion crowns from 7.7 billion crowns, above the 12.0 billion crowns expected by analysts.
Persons: Tom Little, SEBa.ST, Banks, SEB, Johan Ahlander, Anna Ringstrom, Eileen Soreng Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Thomson Locations: Stockholm, Sweden, Rights STOCKHOLM, Swedish
When asked about the risk outlook, Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz, former president of Goldman Sachs, advised caution but remained positive about alpha opportunities. "But I think the year ahead will certainly present incredible alpha opportunities. It doesn't mean there won't be great alpha opportunities." Schwartz also highlighted the need to stay liquid in times of war to be best prepared for uncertainty. "I think certain geopolitical risk, particularly war — again the tragedy of war and the loss of life — I think those are very difficult to price in the near term.
Persons: Harvey Schwartz, Goldman Sachs, Schwartz, Organizations: Investment, Bankers, Carlyle Group, Carlyle, International Monetary Fund Locations: Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
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