"We now believe that the Fed is on a prolonged 'hawkish hold,'" she said.
"In our base case, their next move will likely be a cut but it will take until 2024 until we see it.
That said, Powell will have no choice but to keep the threat of hikes alive, lest he encourage markets to prematurely price in cuts and re-ignite inflation expectations."
"Indeed, throughout this coming extended pause, the risk to our base case will likely almost always be for one last hike to cement the disinflationary trend," she added.
— Tanaya Macheel
Persons:
Frances Donald, Powell
Organizations:
Fed, Manulife Investment Management