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Regional banks see an upward trend following the sector slump
  + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRegional banks see an upward trend following the sector slumpCNBC's Leslie Picker joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss movement in the regional banking sector, short pressure on regional banks from hedge funds, and investor concerns over deposits and profitability in the regional banking sector.
Watch CNBC's full interview with Odeon Capital Group's Dick Bove
  + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Odeon Capital Group's Dick BoveNick Timiraos, Wall Street Journal chief economics correspondent, and Dick Bove, Odeon Capital Group chief financial strategist, join CNBC's Leslie Picker and 'Last Call' to discuss the ongoing regional banking crisis, a possible sale from Pacific West Bancorp, and the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate hike.
Stock futures fell after the Federal Reserve hiked rates by another 25 basis points and investors' fears of contagion in the regional bank space returned. S&P 500 futures shed 0.46%. Regional bank shares sold off hard, with Western Alliance tumbling nearly 30% and Zions Bancorporation dropping nearly 12%. Since the closure of Silicon Valley Bank in March, First Republic has joined the ranks of failed institutions and was recently taken over by JPMorgan Chase. "I believe with a very high degree of probability there's going to be further regional bank failures."
The Los Angeles-based lender said in its first-quarter earnings last week that its deposits had stabilized after some customers pulled their money, but investors have continued to sell the bank's shares amid concerns about its future. PacWest shares dropped 58% on the news on Wednesday to $2.88 a share. The stock has lost almost 90% of its value since the regional banking crisis started on March 8. The crisis has led to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation taking over regional lenders Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank and selling them in whole or parts to other banks. Shares of other regional banks also fell after First Republic Bank collapsed last weekend and was sold to JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N).
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History shows that Wall Street could be in for solid gains ahead if the Federal Reserve makes Wednesday's expected rate hike its last. A full year after the 2000 cycle saw the S & P 500 down 12.35%. The S & P 500 added a mere 0.1% in late July and 0.3% in August. December of 2018 saw the S & P 500 rebound 6.53% the following month. Still, the central bank could be wary of ending its tightening cycle yet in an effort to tackle still elevated inflation.
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRegional banks were 'naked when the storm hit them', says Odeon Capital's Dick BoveNick Timiraos, Wall Street Journal chief economics correspondent, and Dick Bove, Odeon Capital Group chief financial strategist, join 'Last Call' to discuss the ongoing regional banking crisis, a possible sale from Pacific West Bancorp, and the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate hike.
PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) shares gained 2.1% in early trading after tumbling 28% to close at their lowest level on record on Tuesday. The KBW Regional Banking Index (.KRX) rose 1% after closing at its lowest level since December 2020. Evercore ISI analysts lowered their 2023 earnings outlook for regional lenders. The brokerage now estimates a nearly 1%decline from a year earlier, compared to an already lowered expectations of a 4% growth, blaming it on intensifying funding cost pressures amid declining regional bank deposits. Meanwhile, short sellers have pocketed $1.2 billion in paper profits betting against regional lenders in the first two days of May, with Truist Financial Corp (TFC.N) and PacWest generating the highest gains, analytics firm Ortex said.
Regional bank stocks have fallen sharply this week after the failure and sale of First Republic, with the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) tumbling 8.9% in just two days, on Monday and Tuesday. KRE 5D mountain Regional bank stocks have fallen after First Republic's failure. But even if the immediate concerns have been put to rest, now the falling bank stocks could create a new round of issues, according to Evercore ISI. ... regional banks' troubles are earnings issues for most, rather than liquidity issues," Pancari said. He added that "select regionals appear oversold," highlighting Fifth Third Bancorp as one of Evercore ISI's favorite mid-sized banks.
If the Fed opts to pause, Treasury yields are expected to decline. Stocks that could gain on falling interest rates Here are the top stocks that are poised to move higher if the Fed signals it will pause rate increases. The gold miner benefits from a rise in gold prices, and in general, gold tends to rise when interest rates fall. Meanwhile, genetics company Illumina should gain if interest rates fall, according to its correlation to the SHY ETF. Stocks poised to gain on rate increases However, if the Fed suggests rate hikes will continue, short-term Treasury yields will likely go up, benefiting these stocks.
The Fed is poised to hike interest rates today for the last time in the current cycle, according to Fundstrat. That's because inflation has declined, the labor market is softening, and financial stability risks have increased. Stocks have historically performed well after the Fed implemented its last interest rate hike. "The constellation of data is already pointing to a softening of labor market demand, jobs itself and eventually wages. And if inflation continues to decline, that should give the Fed ample breathing room to pause further interest rate hikes.
The regional bank crisis will persist unless the Federal Reserve cuts rates, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. I believe with a very high degree of probability there's going to be further regional bank failures," Gundlach said. But Gundlach says Powell's comments Wednesday showed no sign that the Fed plans to cut rates in the near future and, as a result, recession odds have increased. To truly bring an end to the banking crisis, Gundlach says, the Federal Reserve must cut interest rates. He doesn't believe the Fed will raise rates again in 2023 and, in fact, thinks the central bank may cut rates by as much as three quarters of a percentage point this year.
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed's next move will be a cut 'after Jackson Hole', says fmr. PIMCO chief economist Paul McCulleyPaul McCulley, PIMCO former chief economist, joins 'Fast Money' to discuss the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate hike decision, the regional banking crisis, and more.
The June hike is now off the table completely, and traders now see a 15% chance of the Fed not raising at all this week or in June. This is significant for the June 14 policy decision because the Fed also releases its new Summary of Economic Projections that day. The deposit flight may have stopped but Fed officials will be acutely aware of the negative feedback loop on the economy, given the deep-rooted linkages between small banks and businesses. The March survey of small businesses by the National Federation of Independent Business showed multiple signs of weakness, and even more attention than usual will fall on the next Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. Will the Fed be raising rates on June 14 if this is still a live issue?
[1/2] David Hunt President and CEO, PGIM, speaks at the 2023 Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., May 1, 2023. As Wall Street money managers, banking executives and pension fund managers gathered at the Milken Institute Global Conference, the main topic over cocktails on Sunday night and in conference rooms the following morning was JPMorgan Chase & Co's (JPM.N) purchase of First Republic Bank. Policymakers, executives and investors at the conference said constrained lending as a result of banking sector regulation could choke off credit to the economy. Nevertheless, betting against bank stocks has been a profitable endeavor this year, which has seen the high-profile failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, in addition to First Republic and a state-engineered rescue of Credit Suisse by the Swiss government. The KBW Regional Banking Index, which fell 2.7% on Monday, is down almost 23.6% year-to-date, while First Republic’s shares are off 97% since January.
May 1 (Reuters) - Regulators seized First Republic Bank (FRC.N) and sold its assets to JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) on Monday, in a deal to resolve the largest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis and draw a line under a lingering banking turmoil. Shares of JPMorgan rose 2% on Monday, while those of mid-tier banks fell and the KBW Regional Banking Index (.KRX) closed down 2.7%. [1/3] People walk past a First Republic Bank branch in San Francisco, California, U.S. April 28, 2023. "This is not the world financial crisis, this is not the savings and loan crisis. The failed bank's 84 offices in eight states will reopen as branches of JPMorgan Chase Bank from Monday, it added.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on September 01, 2022 in New York City. U.S. stock futures fell slightly on Tuesday night as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 11 points, or 0.03%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 367.17 points, or 1.08%. April's ISM non-manufacturing PMI data is forecasted to show 51.8, according to Dow Jones consensus estimates.
May 2 (Reuters) - Shares of major U.S. regional banks fell further on Tuesday in the aftermath of the collapse of First Republic Bank (FRC.N), the largest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. Investors are still concerned that the crisis started by the closure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March could engulf other mid-sized lenders. Shares of PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) tumbled nearly 30%, while Western Alliance Bank (WAL.N) and KeyCorp (KEY.N) fell 21% and 10%, respectively. Some investors are also concerned about the long-term impact of the JPMorgan deal, which risks worsening the "too-big-to-fail" problem regulators have been trying to solve for years. Reporting by Niket Nishant and Jaiveer Singh Shekhawat in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu SahuOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
US stocks fell about 1% on Tuesday as investors prepare for another interest rate hike despite an ongoing banking crisis. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates by 25 basis points at its Wednesday FOMC meeting. Regional bank stocks were crushed on Tuesday just one day after JPMorgan acquired First Republic Bank. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. Investors also have their eyes on corporate earnings, with Apple set to report quarterly results after the market close on Thursday.
Shares of PacWest and Western Alliance each fell more than 25%, leading bank stocks lower on Tuesday. "This part of the crisis is over," JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon said after his bank took over First Republic. Shares of PacWest and Western Alliance fell as much as 26% and 27%, respectively. The S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index fell 7%, while the KBW Regional Banking ETF fell 6%. The crash in regional bank shares comes a few days after First Republic Bank failed and was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and its assets sold to JPMorgan.
Regional bank stocks fell sharply Tuesday as the fallout from the third major bank failure this year continued to put pressure on the sector. Over the weekend, regulators seized troubled regional bank First Republic and sold it to JPMorgan Chase. First Republic is the third failure of a large regional bank this year, following Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March. Most other regional banks reported smaller deposits declines, however, and some like PacWest reported that deposits began rebounding in late March. Another issue for the regional banks is the possibility of more Fed rate hikes.
The U.S. central bank is expected to deliver a 25 basis-point interest rate increase on Wednesday and then hold rates steady for the rest of 2023, according to economists in a Reuters poll. However, with inflation running well over the central bank's 2% target and a still-strong labor market mean chances of rate cuts seem less likely. Denting sentiment, Australia's central bank raised its cash rate by 25 basis points when traders were expecting an extended pause, citing too high inflation and warning of even higher rates. ET, Dow e-minis were down 72 points, or 0.21%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 7 points, or 0.17%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 1 points, or 0.01%. Educational services company Chegg (CHGG.N) slumped 44.7% on a downbeat second-quarter revenue forecast on increasing competition from ChatGPT.
Dow slides by almost 600 points as bank shares nosedive
  + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +1 min
The Dow fell about 550 points, or 1.6% by midday Tuesday. Western Alliance Bank fell about 16.3% and New York Community Bancorp declined 6.6%. Wells Fargo fell 3.9%, Citigroup slipped 2.3% and Bank of America declined 3.6%. Since investors are already expecting a quarter-point rate hike on Wednesday, Fed commentary will be the focus for markets, Eye said. Investors will be watching for clues about the state of credit conditions following three bank failures, as well as about the Fed’s planned trajectory for future rate hike decisions.
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNot surprising market is 'speculating on what's next', says Guggenheim's Schwartz on banking routAlan Schwartz, Guggenheim Partners executive chair, joins 'Last Call' to discuss the regional banking rout, JPMorgan's acquisition of First Republic Bank, and more.
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed is the 'bull in the china shop', says Hayman's Kyle Bass on banking crisisKyle Bass, Hayman Capital Management founder and CIO, joins 'Last Call' to discuss the Federal Reserve's credibility, the regional banking crisis, and more.
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