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Morgan Stanley (MS) is set to report quarterly earnings before the opening bell Tuesday. While working on a transition to depend more on wealth management, investment banking is still an important aspect of Morgan Stanley's overall business. Morgan Stanley had a hand in the Cava IPO as a book-runner. It pays us to be patient with the stocks of Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo, which have been underperformers year-to-date compared to the S & P 500 . Morgan Stanley will likely benefit as companies turn to its investment banking services for ambitious deals.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, There's, Morgan, Morgan Stanley's, Goldman Sachs, Jim Cramer, Jim, Lina Khan, Activision Blizzard, IPOs, Wells, dealmakers, there's, Jim Cramer's, Bing Guan Organizations: Investment, JPMorgan, IB, Federal Trade, Microsoft, Activision, Renaissance Capital, Companies, Semiconductor, ARM Holdings, Silicon Valley Bank, Federal Reserve, Club, Nasdaq, CNBC, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Cava, Silicon, Wells Fargo, U.S
CNN —The bond and stock markets are finally seeing eye to eye when it comes to the Federal Reserve. Stocks and the 10-year Treasury’s real yield have begun moving inversely again, according to a research note from Morgan Stanley. That’s a reversal from earlier this year, when yields and stocks both moved higher. A concurrent rally both in bond yields and stocks is atypical. The Consumer Price Index report for June showed that annual inflation slowed to 3%, marking its lowest rate since March 2021.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, George Cipolloni, they’re, , Price, Michael Kushma, We’re, Laura He, Read, Goldman Sachs Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal Reserve, Stocks, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Penn Mutual Asset Management, Nasdaq, Cyberspace Administration, Financial Services, Bank of America, US Bancorp, Ally, American Express Locations: China
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, testifies during the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing titled Annual Oversight of the Nations Largest Banks, in Hart Building on Sept. 22, 2022. "This is great news for hedge funds, private equity, private credit, Apollo , Blackstone ," Dimon said, naming two of the largest private equity players. Banks face requirements to hold more capital as a cushion against risky activities from both U.S. and international regulators. Authorities are proposing higher capital requirements for banks with at least $100 billion in assets after the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March. But that also coincides with a long-awaited set of international rules spurred by the 2008 financial crisis referred to as the Basel III endgame.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, Wells, Mike Mayo, Michael Barr, Blackstone, Dimon, Apollo didn't, Banks Organizations: JPMorgan, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs Committee, Nations Largest Banks, Federal, Silicon Valley Bank Locations: Wells Fargo, Silicon, Basel
Your Guide to Second-Quarter Bank Earnings
  + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
JPMorgan's profit jumped after it rescued First Republic. (Clarissa Bonet for The Wall Street Journal)Bank earnings have started to roll in, with early-morning reports from JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. The question at the top of everyone's mind: Is Bank Crisis '23 over? Things have calmed down since March, when Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed in spectacular fashion. First Republic's demise, which followed in early May, was supposed to be the finale.
Persons: Clarissa Bonet Organizations: Wall, Bank, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank Locations: Republic, Wells Fargo
Bank credit growth began slowing in the second half of last year and has slowed further since the SVB failure, although that deceleration has not been uniform. Meanwhile, here's a look at the current state of the bank credit scene, according to data published each week by the Fed. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsCONSUMER CREDITThe Fed splits this category into three tranches: credit cards, auto loans and all other consumer loans. Bank credit card lending is the largest of the three at nearly $1 trillion, a record. Both CRE and residential real estate loans are still rising year over year, but at a much slower pace.
Persons: Banks, Safiyah Riddle, Dan Burns, Anna Driver Organizations: Silicon Valley Bank, Federal, Fed, Securities, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Silicon, Bank
Stocks could continue to gain momentum in the week ahead as traders turn their attention to earnings results after the past week's softer inflation news. The major benchmarks are headed for a positive week Friday after encouraging consumer and wholesale inflation in June cemented the likelihood that the Federal Reserve is closer to the end of its rate-hiking campaign. Some market participants expect this period could mark the trough for earnings, and urge traders to pay more attention to forward guidance. "And that's a great sign for the market and market health." ET: NAHB housing market index (July) Earnings: Bank of America , Morgan Stanley , Bank of N.Y. Mellon , Lockheed Martin , PNC Financial , J.B. Hunt Wednesday 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Sage, Rob Williams, Sam Stovall, gee, Stovall, It's, Yung, Yu Ma, MRB, Sage Advisory's Williams, Williams, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Baird's Ross Mayfield, Lockheed Martin, Baker Hughes, Goldman Sachs, Kinder Morgan, Equifax, Johnson Organizations: Federal Reserve, Traders, Reserve, Open, BMO Wealth Management's, MRB Partners, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Investors, Bank, N.Y, Mellon, Lockheed, PNC Financial, J.B, Hunt, Housing, Nasdaq, Citizens Financial, Halliburton, Las Vegas Sands, IBM, Tesla, Netflix, American Airlines, United Airlines, CSX, Comerica, PPG, Roper Technologies, American Locations: Wells Fargo, Silicon Valley, Las Vegas, Horton
[1/3] A worker cleans a Barclays logo outside a bank branch in the financial district of London, Britain July 8, 2019. The test also measured how well the lenders would cope with a global rise in interest rates. "Major UK banks’ capital and liquidity positions remain robust and profitability has increased, which enables them both to improve their capital positions and to support their customers." The Bank said it had decided to maintain its counter-cyclical capital buffer (CCyB) for banks unchanged. Given its successful completion of the stress test, Virgin Money said it anticipated resuming its share buyback programme during this year, sending its shares 3% higher in early trading.
Persons: Simon Dawson, BoE, Virgin Money, Huw Jones, Sinead Cruise, Mark Potter Organizations: Barclays, REUTERS, Bank of England, Lloyds, HSBC, NatWest, Santander UK, Standard Chartered, Nationwide Building Society, Virgin Money, The Bank, Bank, Virgin, Britain's, Nationwide, Standard, Silicon Valley Bank, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, United States, Silicon Valley, U.S
[1/2] People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district in London, Britain May 11, 2023. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls//File PhotoLONDON, July 12 (Reuters) - Britain's economy is so far proving resilient to a surge in interest rates over the past year and a half, but it will take time for the full impact to feed through, the Bank of England said on Wednesday. "The UK economy has so far been resilient to interest rate risk, though it will take time for the full impact of higher interest rates to come through," it said. It said British banks were less exposed than households to the adverse effects of higher interest rates, especially compared with financial institutions in other countries, while the corporate sector remained "broadly resilient". "Nevertheless, higher financing costs are likely to put pressure on some smaller or highly leveraged firms," it added.
Persons: Henry Nicholls, BoE, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, David Milliken, Huw Jones, William Schomberg, Kevin Liffey Organizations: Bank of England, REUTERS, The Bank, Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Thomson Locations: City, London, Britain, Silicon
Fine wine is souring as investment prices sink
  + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
New York CNN —Fine wine prices have been rising consistently for years, attracting investors looking to hedge against inflation, economic turmoil and stocks. The company currently manages $375 million worth of fine wine assets (that’s a 45% increase year on year). Fine wine has had a compound annual growth rate of 10% over the last 30 years, according to the Liv-Ex investables index, which tracks the going rates for fine wines. Leading the way in losses is Bordeaux, which experienced the largest drop of all fine wine categories in June. That’s a bit worrisome, said Tiwari, as Bordeaux is the most established region in the fine wine investment market and typically maintains its price stability.
Persons: Jay, David Beckham, Stephen Curry, Liv, , Atul Tiwari, That’s, Tiwari, SVB, Rob McMillan, , we’re, LIV Golf, Chris Isidore, Richard Blumenthal, Ron Price, Jimmy Dunne, Sen, ” Dunne, LIV, Clare Duffy, Clare Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Cult Wines, SEC, First Citizens Bank, , PGA Tour, Saudi, PGA, Connecticut Democrat, University of Pennsylvania Locations: New York, Bordeaux, London, Silicon, Napa, California, “ California, Saudi, American, Connecticut, Clare
The banking industry called the effort misguided and economically harmful. ‘HOLISTIC REVIEW’Barr’s speech served as a comprehensive update on a “holistic” review of bank capital rules that he launched shortly after joining the U.S. central bank in 2022. He said he will seek to apply stricter capital rules to banks with more than $100 billion in assets, expanding the pool of firms that must comply. Dashing industry hopes for any rules relief, Barr also said he did not plan to weaken an existing surcharge on large global banks or leverage rules which the industry argued hampered Treasury market functions. The Fed has itself come under criticism for its oversight of banks involved in this year’s banking crisis.
Persons: Michael Barr, Evelyn Hockstein, ” Barr, Barr, Joe Biden, , Tim Adams, Jerome Powell Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal, Federal Reserve, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs Committee, Capitol, REUTERS, Center, Institute of International Finance, U.S, Silicon Valley Bank, Republican, House, Monday, Bank Locations: Washington , U.S, Washington, Basel, Silicon, U.S
Central banks around the globe have been studying and working on digital versions of their currencies for retail use to avoid leaving digital payments to the private sector amid an accelerating decline of cash. Most of the new Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) will emerge in the retail space, where eleven central banks could join peers in the Bahamas, the Eastern Caribbean, Jamaica and Nigeria which already run live digital retail currencies, the BIS found in its survey of 86 central banks conducted late 2022. On the wholesale side, which in future could allow financial institutions to access new functionalities thanks to tokenisation, nine central banks could launch CBDCs, the BIS said. "Enhancing cross-border payments is among the key drivers of central banks' work on wholesale CBDCs," the authors of the report wrote. Pilot testing in China now reaches 260 million people and two other big emerging economies, India and Brazil, plan to launch digital currencies next year.
Persons: Francois Lenoir, CBDC, Karin Strohecker, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Francois Lenoir LONDON, Bank for International Settlements, Central Bank Digital, BIS, Swiss National Bank, European Central Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Thomson Locations: Brussels, Belgium, Bahamas, Eastern Caribbean, Jamaica, Nigeria, China, India, Brazil, Silicon, stablecoins
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Organizations: Wall Street
ZURICH, July 10 (Reuters) - Swiss bank Julius Baer (BAER.S) can double its assets under management to 1 trillion Swiss francs ($1.12 trillion), CEO Philipp Rickenbacher said in an interview with German daily Handelsblatt on Monday. Achieving the goal would mean a massive increase from the 429 billion francs in assets that Julius Baer currently manages, but it is possible, the daily reported, adding that Rickenbacher declined to give a timeline on when the target could be achieved. "But we are in growth mode and such ambitions are not unrealistic," he said, adding that attracting former Credit Suisse clients will take time. "Perhaps the market has overestimated the speed of the shifts," Rickenbacher said. ($1 = 0.8912 Swiss francs)Reporting by John Revill; Editing by Sherry Jacob-PhillipsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Julius Baer, Philipp Rickenbacher, Rickenbacher, John Revill, Sherry Jacob, Phillips Organizations: Credit Suisse, Silicon Valley Bank, Thomson Locations: ZURICH, Swiss, Silicon
Washington, DC CNN —Silicon Valley Bank failed because regulators were far too slow to take action, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said Monday in her first extended remarks about the collapse. SVB operated in Daly’s district before the regional bank’s stunningly rapid failure in March, but she noted she doesn’t have a supervising role. Daly said the supervisors at the San Francisco Fed simply report issues to the Fed’s Board of Governors, which is ultimately responsible for fixing any regulatory issues. “My job is to support the supervision that the vice chair of supervision has set out, so how do I do that? The possibility of a rate hike in September remains unclear, though Powell said he wouldn’t take consecutive rate hikes off the table.
Persons: Mary Daly, SVB, ” Daly, Michael Barr, Democratic Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Daly, Jerome Powell, Warren, , Barr, it’s, It’s, Powell, Loretta Mester, Mester, , Raphael Bostic, ” Bostic, ” — CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald Organizations: DC CNN, Valley Bank, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Brookings Institution, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank, Democratic, San Francisco Fed, Fed’s, of Governors, Fed, San Francisco, Cleveland Fed, University of California, Atlanta Fed, trickling, Cobb County Chamber of Commerce Locations: Washington, Daly’s district, Washington ,, San Francisco Fed, San Diego, Cobb County, Atlanta
But even as the dust settles from a string of government seizures of failed midsized banks, the forces that sparked the regional banking crisis in March are still at play. What is coming will likely be the most significant shift in the American banking landscape since the 2008 financial crisis. JPMorgan shares are up 7.6% this year, while the KBW Regional Banking Index is down more than 20%. Some of those pressures will be visible as regional banks disclose second-quarter results this month. "The fundamental issue with the regional banking system is the underlying business model is under stress," said incoming Lazard CEO Peter Orszag.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Brian Graham, Banks, KeyCorp, Matt O'Connor, Peter Orszag, SVB, Chris Wolfe, Wolfe, you've, You've, Goldman Sachs, Lazard's Orszag, Orszag, Janet Yellen, Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Klaros, Graham Organizations: First, JPMorgan, Silicon Valley Bank, CNBC, Klaros, Deutsche Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Justice Department Locations: First Republic, Silicon Valley, SVB, KBW, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Republic
Sure, you can currently Venmo or Zelle your friends instantly, but the banking system hasn’t kept up. Most transfers currently run on old systems that take hours, or even days, to process the money. Kevin Jacques: It’s a network that lets banks transfer money between themselves and between the account holders at the different banks in a near-instant way. The increase in average hourly earnings remained at 0.4% month on month, unchanged from May; and is up about 4.4% from last year. Instagram has more than two billion users, far more than the 238 million users Twitter reported having in the months before Musk took over.
Persons: New York CNN — FedNow, hasn’t, Bell, Kevin Jacques, It’s, You’ve, heartened, Payrolls, Job, Rucha Vankudre, Alicia Wallace, , We’re, , Joseph Davis, Jerome Powell, Candice Tse, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Zuckerberg, Musk, Brian Fung, Instagram Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Cota Capital, Fed, There’s UPI, Silicon Valley Bank, , Vanguard, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Meta, Twitter Locations: New York, India, Brazil, Silicon
Wells Fargo (WFC) and Morgan Stanley (MS), our two financial holdings, will report quarterly numbers Friday and a week from Tuesday, respectively. All 23 institutions tested, including Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley, passed the exercise that simulates a hypothetical severe global recession. Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley announced increases in their capital returns to shareholders after clearing that regulatory hurdle. WFC YTD mountain Wells Fargo YTD performance Wells Fargo has a unique story among the major U.S. banks because of its multiyear restructuring plan. MS YTD mountain Morgan Stanley YTD performance When Morgan Stanley reports, net assets in its wealth management (WM) business will be a key metric.
Persons: Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Christopher Whalen, Whalen, Banks, Wells, ROTCE, there's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal, Silicon Valley Bank, Street, Street Journal, CNBC, Barclays, Investment, Citibank, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Reuters Locations: U.S, Silicon, SVB, Wells, Wells Fargo
Banks with at least $100 billion in assets would be subject to similar regulation that banks with $700 billion in assets currently face, under Barr’s proposal. These regulations would force banks to hold an additional two percentage points of capital, or an additional $2 of capital for every $100 of risk-weighted assets, Barr said. “Our recent experience shows that even banks [with at least $100 billion in assets] can cause stress that spreads to other institutions and threatens financial stability,” Barr in remarks at the Bipartisan Policy Center. Requiring banks to hold more capital could help mitigate risks that arise when banks are under stress. Barr on Fed’s fight against inflationIn addition to discussing bank regulation, Barr also spoke about the Fed’s plans to get inflation down.
Persons: Michael Barr, Banks, Barr, , ” Barr, SVB, Kevin Fromer, , Dennis Kelleher Organizations: New, New York CNN — Federal, Center, Valley Bank, Financial Services, Wall, Better, CNN Locations: New York
Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr testifies before a House Financial Services Committee hearing on the response to the recent bank failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, on Capitol Hill in Washington, March 29, 2023. The Federal Reserve's top regulatory official laid out a sweeping plan to increase capital requirements for the nation's largest banks, saying recent bank failures underlined the need for regulators to bolster resilience in the system. Barr said he did not plan to overhaul the U.S. bank capital framework, but instead build on it in several ways, including by fully implementing an international bank capital agreement and expanding annual "stress tests" of bank health. Barr also said the Federal Reserve is close to reaching the appropriate level of interest rates to bring inflation back to the central bank's 2% target but added: "We still have a bit of work to do." Barr's remark came in response to a question on how much further the Fed's policy rate may need to rise to contain inflation.
Persons: Michael Barr, Barr Organizations: Financial, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Capitol, Federal, Silicon Valley Bank, Federal Reserve Locations: Washington, Silicon
UK bank’s 25% drop adds further investor wildcard
  + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
LONDON, July 7 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Being a bank investor was already hard enough in 2023. Shareholders who thought rising interest rates were a one-way bet realised otherwise when losses on long-term bonds helped sink Silicon Valley Bank. In it, OSB said it will take a roughly 170 million pound hit to revenue because customers were refinancing home loans quicker than expected. That, in turn, involves predicting how long customers will stay on higher variable-rate tariffs after their fixed-rate deals expire. Central banks’ inflation fight has changed the dynamics here, since rising rates incentivise borrowers to switch more quickly.
Persons: OSB, Liam Proud, Lisa Jucca, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Bank, Twitter, Thomson
First-half US corporate bankruptcies surged to the highest level since 2010, data from S&P Global Market Intelligence shows. Almost 3,000 firms folded up in the last six months, a 68% jump from a year earlier, according to Epiq Bankruptcy. American businesses have come under increased stress after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively. Total company failures for the period surged 68% from a year earlier to almost 3,000, according to data provider Epiq Bankruptcy. Rising corporate bankruptcies are a worrying sign for the wider US economy, which is already under strain from the effects of the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Gregg Morin Organizations: P Global Market Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Service, Valley, Bed, Lordstown Motors, Mediamath Holdings, Epiq, Business Development
Overall, shares in European banks are outperforming U.S. peers as they did not face the deposit flight experienced in the United States. "In Europe, hedge funds have rotated out of banks and insurance into financial services in the past couple of months, but still positioning in European banks remains stronger than in U.S. banks," Goldman Sachs said in the report obtained by Reuters. The data shows European investors are more bullish about banks on their own continent, while they have a more neutral approach to U.S. banks. The gap between European hedge funds' positioning in European and U.S. banks has widened mainly after a crisis this year in which U.S.-based bank Silicon Valley Bank and two other lenders failed. Short interest as a share of free float in U.S. banks grew to 2.3% in June from 1.8% in January, while staying stable for European banks, at 0.6%.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Wells, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Carolina Mandl, David Holmes, Clarence Fernandez Organizations: YORK, Dow Jones, Banks, Reuters, Silicon Valley Bank, UBS, Credit Suisse, Bridgewater Associates, JPMorgan & Co, Bank of America Corp, Wells Fargo & Co, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States, Europe, Silicon, Swiss
While the natural inclination is to cheer a strong jobs market, investors are responding with a boo and bailing out of risk assets. The thinking goes like this: If people are at work and the labor market is stronger than expected, the ability of the consumer to absorb higher prices is also greater than previously thought. If the ability to absorb higher prices is greater than expected, above target (2%) inflation can last longer than estimated, regardless of the current fed funds rate. If the current fed funds rate isn't stopping hiring and consumers' ability to absorb higher prices, the rate simply isn't high enough. Energy is tough: We really need China's reopening to pick up as demand will be the key to higher energy prices.
Persons: , — it's, it's, Staples, Eli Lilly, we've, Friday's nonfarm, We're, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Federal Reserve, Apple, Nvidia, American Electric Power, Treasury, Silicon Valley Bank, Constellation Brands, Management, GE Healthcare, Technology, Linde, LIN, Energy, buybacks, Microsoft, Verizon, Disney, Procter & Gamble, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Silicon, U.S, Friday's, New York City
The Fed's own economists aren't sure if the US economy will suffer a recession or not. They believe it's a virtual coin toss whether there's a mild downturn or none at all. Even the Federal Reserve's own economists say it's basically a coin toss, the minutes from the Fed's June meeting show. The central bank's staff predicted that banks would keep pulling back on lending, tightening financial conditions and causing real gross domestic product (GDP) to decline modestly for the next two quarters. They also tend to damp demand, lift unemployment, and pull down asset prices, increasing the risk of a recession.
Persons: , it's, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Fed Locations: Silicon
The adtech company held panel sessions and meetings at the "MediaMath Penthouse." But behind the scenes, MediaMath CEO Neil Nguyen had barely been sleeping, according to three people familiar with the matter. "We collectively believed as a company, board, and advisors that we had a deal in hand," the statement continued. When advertisers or agencies buy ads through a platform like MediaMath, the adtech company must pay publishers immediately for their ad space. But the adtech company must wait — often 90 days or more — to be paid by the advertiser or agency.
Persons: MediaMath, Goldman Sachs, MediaMath execs, Neil Nguyen, Nguyen, Olivier Anrigo, Xandr, Joe Zawadzki, Ernest Hemingway, Searchlight wasn't, Neil, Houlihan Lokey, Zeta, Viant, Chris Vanderhook, Tim Vanderhook, Frederick M, Brown, MGI, Lionel Hahn, Remco Westermann, Gary Hershorn, MGI's, Westermann, they'll, Zawadzki, he'd Organizations: Cannes Lions, Cannes, Goldman, Searchlight Capital, Carlton Hotel, Google, IBM, Bain Capital —, Aperiam, Searchlight, Silicon, Zeta Global, Media, Games Invest, Verve, MGI's Verve Group, Getty, Verve Group, Trade, World Trade, Trade Center Locations: France, Cannes, hobnobbing, Delaware, Japan, Manhattan, New York City, MediaMath, AperiamVentures
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