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In both the United States and Europe, the words of central bankers led investors to cut their estimates of the peak or "terminal" rate expected in the current tightening cycle. With financial conditions loosening despite rising policy rates, "central banks must...be resolute in their fight against inflation and ensure policy remains appropriately tight long enough to durably bring inflation back to target," Adrian and others wrote. The European Central Bank seems furthest from a likely stopping point. Combined, the statements mark the start of the endgame for central banks that were slow to recognize the onset of inflation last year before engaging in a record-setting round of rate increases. Central bankers long ago stopped using the word "transitory" in reference to inflation that proved faster and more persistent than any expected.

The rate hikes imposed by the Fed since March have now totaled 4.5 percentage points, with the policy rate now in a range between 4.50% and 4.75%, the highest since 2007. It is in part that resilience that has the central bank poised for "ongoing increases" in its policy interest rate. Stocks, modestly lower ahead of the Fed rate decision, turned sharply higher as Powell spoke. "If you were hoping for clear signs of an upcoming pause in interest rate hikes, you were left wanting. INFLATION TARGET REAFFIRMEDThe Fed statement indicated that any future rate increases would be in quarter-percentage-point increments, dropping a reference to the "pace" of future increases and instead referring to the "extent" of rate changes.

Stocks, modestly lower ahead of the Fed rate decision, turned sharply higher as Powell spoke, with the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) index climbing about 1% on the session. At the same time, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note , the maturity most sensitive to Fed policy expectations, dropped abruptly to the day's low, last trading down about 8 basis points at around 4.12%. The Federal Reserve retained the phrase 'ongoing increases' in their statement, leaving their options open depending on what upcoming economic data says," said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. The statement did indicate that any future rate increases would be in quarter-percentage-point increments, dropping a reference to the "pace" of future increases and instead referring to the "extent" of rate changes. But those, it said, would take into account how the policy moves so far had impacted the economy, language that linked further rate increases to the evolution of upcoming economic data.

[1/5] U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addresses reporters after the Fed raised its target interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, during a news conference at the Federal Reserve Building in Washington, U.S., February 1, 2023. Stocks, modestly lower ahead of the Fed rate decision, were little moved by the release of the policy statement, with the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) index down about 0.3% on the session. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note , the maturity most sensitive to Fed policy expectations, rose to the day's high, last trading up 2 basis points at about 4.22%. "If you were hoping for clear signs of an upcoming pause in interest rate hikes, you were left wanting. The statement did indicate that any future rate increases would be in quarter-percentage-point increments, dropping a reference to the "pace" of future increases and instead referring to the "extent" of rate changes.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to hold a news conference half an hour later to elaborate on the decision. Caught flat-footed last year as inflation accelerated and threatened to prove far more persistent than anticipated, the Fed approved the fastest interest rate hikes since the 1980s. New data last week showed a key inflation measure slowed faster than expected in December, continuing a six-month downward trend. The expected move to 25-basis-point rate increases will be a "hawkish downshift," BNP Paribas economists wrote ahead of this week's policy meeting. Traders of futures that settle to the Fed's policy rate see the path somewhat differently, with the benchmark rate peaking in the 4.75%-5.00% range, and the central bank cutting that rate to around 4.4% by December.

By announcing an inflation goal, central bankers feel they build credibility for themselves and focus the planning of households and firms in ways that help keep inflation controlled. Those decades, up to the end of the first year of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, saw inflation largely contained. Achieving that target is just core to our overall monetary policy," Brainard said, a sentiment echoed in central bank headquarters from Frankfurt to London to Tokyo. "Let me be quite clear, there are no ifs or buts in our commitment to the 2% inflation target," Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said last year. Should inflation prove stickier than expected, achieving the central bank's 2% inflation goal could mean even more losses.

☆ Ketamine is being sold as a depression wonder drug. For some, it's making everything worse.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Anna Silman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +42 min

The infusions at the ketamine clinic in his West Texas hometown were a Christmas gift from his grandmother. About five years ago, more and more of my friends started using ketamine recreationally. IV ketamine treatment centers charging $400 to $2,000 an infusion popped up all over the country. "Ketamine used as directed in an appropriate clinical setting very rarely leads to any dependence," Mindbloom says on its website. Like Nadia, most of the people I interviewed said when they started using ketamine, they didn't think it was possible to become dependent on it.

The hands of the Doomsday Clock are closer to midnight than ever before, with humanity facing a time of “unprecedented danger” that has increased the likelihood of a human-caused apocalypse, a group of scientists announced Tuesday. “We are living in a time of unprecedented danger, and the Doomsday Clock time reflects that reality,” Rachel Bronson, president and CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, said in a statement, adding that “it’s a decision our experts do not take lightly.”The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists set the Doomsday Clock at 90 seconds to midnight on Tuesday. When it was unveiled in 1947, the clock was set at 7 minutes to midnight, with “midnight” signifying human-caused apocalypse. In 2020, the Bulletin set the Doomsday Clock at 100 seconds to midnight, the first time it had moved within the two-minute mark. The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists was founded in 1945 to examine global security issues related to science and technology.

☆ Putin's nuclear threats move Doomsday Clock closest ever to Armageddon, atomic scientists say
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Christina Wilkie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The 2023 Doomsday Clock is displayed before a live-streamed event with members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on January 24, 2023 in Washington, DC. The group has been measuring real and existential threats to humankind, from climate change to the prospects of nuclear war, for more than 70 years. The renewed global threat of nuclear war was compounded by the ongoing Covid pandemic, experts noted. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists was founded in 1945 by the late physicist and Nobel laureate Albert Einstein, as well as scientists who worked on the Manhattan Project to build the first atomic bomb. The clock's threats "focus on manmade threats: nuclear risk, climate change and new disruptive technologies, including bio technologies," said Bronson.

The Fed currently holds about $2.6 trillion of MBS as part of its roughly $8 trillion securities portfolio. That is about a quarter of the total MBS market, what George referred to as an "enormous" share that raises questions about the appropriate extent of the central bank's presence. In theory, that puts upward pressure on long-term interest rates by lowering demand for those assets. George said she did not have a specific plan in mind, but felt her colleagues should get to work on one. More important than the details of any plan "is just to say how will we go about doing that earlier rather than later.

Waller said he remained "cautious" about the path of inflation and expected it would take "continued tightening of monetary policy" to return the rate of price increases to the Fed's 2% target. That process seems to be underway, Waller said, all while the unemployment rate remains, at least so far, at a half-century low of 3.5%. The Fed used a series of aggressive-three-quarter point rate increases last year to push the target federal funds rate from near zero to a range between 4.25% and 4.5%. At the Fed's last meeting in December, however, policymakers eased the pace and approved just a half-point increase. While supporting the use of quarter point hikes, Waller did not indicate in his prepared remarks how much further he feels rates need to rise from here.

WASHINGTON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is set to again slow the pace of its interest rate increases at a Jan. 31-Feb. 1 policy meeting while also signaling that its battle against inflation is far from over. Throughout last year, the Fed's rapid series of rate hikes were announced in a statement that also promised "ongoing increases" until rates were "sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%." Fed officials were surprised in 2021 by the persistence of inflation that at one point was more than triple their 2% target. The unemployment rate is currently 3.5%, a level seen only rarely since World War Two. "Thus, I anticipate the need for further rate increases."

The Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate rapidly last year, from near-zero in March to the current 4.25%-4.50% range, to restrain inflation that climbed to 40-year highs. In December, Fed policymakers as a group signaled the policy rate will need to rise to at least 5.1%; financial markets, meanwhile, are pricing for the Fed to stop just short of 5%. But she did appear to ratify market expectations for the Fed's upcoming rate hike to be a quarter-of-a-percentage-point, a downshift from December's half-point rate hike and from the four 75-basis-point rate hikes that preceded. "Recent data suggests slightly better prospects that we could see continued disinflation in the context of moderate growth," Brainard said. Even as the Fed parses the progress it has made on inflation, she said it would "stay the course."

[1/3] Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard speaks at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, in Chicago, Illinois, U.S., January 19, 2023. In addition, she said the full impact of last year's aggressive Fed interest rate increases has yet to be felt. "It remains possible that a continued moderation in aggregate demand could facilitate continued easing in the labor market and reduction in inflation without a significant loss of employment," Brainard said. Even as the Fed parses the progress it has made on inflation, she said it would "stay the course." "Even with the recent moderation, inflation remains high, and policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive for some time to make sure inflation returns to 2 percent on a sustained basis," Brainard said.

"I just think we need to keep going, and we'll discuss at the meeting how much to do." The Fed's benchmark overnight lending rate currently sits in a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Investors expect the Fed to lift that rate by a quarter of a percentage point at the end of its Jan. 31 -Feb. 1 meeting. Several Fed officials have expressed support for slowing to quarter-percentage-point rate increases so as not to slow the labor market more than necessary. The answer may in part be found in the latest "Beige Book" report published by the Fed on Wednesday.

Reuters GraphicsThe U.S. central bank is already adjusting to one unanticipated set of changes - an outbreak of inflation coupled with stalled growth in the U.S. labor force. "You have to identify the regime change ... Then you have to understand the transition dynamics ... and have a clear vision and insight into all of those ... "Markets calibrated to ... Chinese growth and low interest rates may prove fragile." Like recessions, which are typically identified only well after they have started, other economic turning points aren't always apparent in the moment. But as evidence of that accumulated following the 2007-2009 recession, it was only embodied into Fed policy in 2020 under a new approach that leaned against premature interest rate increases.

But "we should 'stick to our knitting' and not wander off to pursue perceived social benefits that are not tightly linked to our statutory goals and authorities," Powell said. "Taking on new goals, however worthy, without a clear statutory mandate would undermine the case for our independence." "Decisions about policies to directly address climate change should be made by the elected branches of government and thus reflect the public's will as expressed through elections," he told the forum in Stockholm. Powell's comments, particularly about climate change, are not new. When it comes to inflation, however, Powell said it was critical the Fed retain the ability to manage as it sees fit - raising interest rates to control inflation even if that means slower growth and higher unemployment.

STOCKHOLM, Jan 10 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve's independence from political influence is central to its ability to battle inflation, but requires it stay out of issues like climate change that are beyond its congressionally-established mandate, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday. "Restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures that are not popular in the short term as we raise interest rates to slow the economy. "Taking on new goals, however worthy, without a clear statutory mandate would undermine the case for our independence." Powell's position on the issue stands in contrast to major central banks in Europe that have integrated green economy efforts into their policymaking. But it also recognizes the political realities in the United States where opinion among elected officials is more divided.

"Eventually I want us to get to 25" basis point rate hikes, he said. Asked in a Wall Street Journal interview early on Monday about her preferred rate-hike size for the Jan. 31 to Feb.1 meeting, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said both 25 and 50 basis point rate hikes are "on the table" for her. She, like Bostic, expects the Fed policy rate - now at 4.25% to 4.5% - to need to rise to a 5% to 5.25% range to do the job on inflation. After nearly a year of aggressive rate hikes designed to slow the economy and bring soaring inflation to heel, Fed policymakers say they are encouraged by the recent slowing in jobs and wage growth that could signal cooler inflation ahead. But they are loathe to stop interest rate hikes or even downshift to smaller rate-hike increments too soon, for fear of entrenching high inflation and ultimately forcing the Fed to raise rates further.

"Because of the lags involved, policymakers are going to face a very difficult decision about when to stop rate increases or reverse course," Romer said in a keynote address to the American Economic Association's annual meeting in New Orleans. Minutes of the most recent Fed policy meeting in December showed central bankers struggling with the risks, while economists see a high probability that the rate increases will lead to a U.S. recession in the coming year. She collaborated with Berkeley economist David Romer, her husband, to mine Fed meeting transcripts and minutes dating back to the 1940s for the review of U.S. central bank policy. Isolating the shocks, she said, allows a clearer view of how Fed rate increases influence economic output and employment, and over what time frame. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Ditching noncompete clauses would be a win for workers' rights and employees in low-wage jobs
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Marguerite Ward | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Noncompetes prevent some workers in low-wage jobs from leaving for better opportunities. If the FTC succeeds in banning noncompete clauses, it can be an important win for low-wage workers and a pivotal moment in the push for workplace equity, advocates for the change say. Annabelle Chih/Getty ImagesCritics point out that many workers subject to noncompete language aren't high-profile executives who've amassed trade secrets — they're average workers. In 2015, The Verge reported on Amazon's use of noncompete agreements for warehouse workers. "Noncompete agreements help artificially stifle competition in the labor market, allowing employers to keep wages low by limiting workers' employment options," Constant wrote.

Nearly 165 million people were either in jobs or looking for them last month, a record high that showed a long-hoped-for improvement in labor supply. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe jobs report is "the embodiment of the soft landing narrative - this idea that can you have a strong labor market with slowing wage growth," said Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors. Ideally, she said, that should allow the Fed to slow and soon pause its interest rate hikes. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsTraders took the report as evidence the Fed's work is near to being done. Still, she said, "inflation remains far too high, despite some encouraging signs lately, and is therefore of great concern."

The longer that job market strength persists, the more Fed officials may feel compelled to break it with ever-higher interest rates. "I don't think we can understate the importance of labor market outcomes," Duy wrote. Reuters Graphics'SURGE PRICING'The job market has befuddled central bankers during the COVID-19 pandemic as much as inflation. Early expectations that a flood of workers back into the labor market would ease wage and hiring conditions proved optimistic. Officials then expected inflation to rise for any number of reasons, from the Fed's own massive bond purchases to a steadily falling unemployment rate.

The overall tone of the minutes is still likely to show inflation has top billing among policymakers. The minutes "will lean against easing prematurely" and keep the focus on the likelihood that rates will rise further and remain high, Derek Tang, economist at LH Meyer, wrote on Tuesday. COGNIZANT OF RISKSThe minutes could help pin down how much sentiment there is to ease the pace of upcoming rate increases to a quarter of a percentage point as of the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting. "It is especially challenging to estimate spillovers, and there are concerns that policymakers may underestimate them. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Companies like Airbnb can ban customers based on a criminal background check: Here's how to dispute it if you think yours is in error
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( Sarah Belle Lin | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Companies like Airbnb say they use background checks to help protect the community. Background checks have proliferated but there are common flaws in the system, experts say. Here's what criminal justice experts say about inaccurate background checks and how to file appeals. "They're not really looking at potential risk in terms of public safety, per se," Stewart told Insider. "I think part of it is companies being able to determine their own criteria," Stewart told Insider.

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