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LONDON/TOKYO, June 1 (Reuters) - Global shares rose on Thursday amid receding bets for a U.S. rate hike this month and relief over the passage through the U.S. House of Representatives of a bill to suspend the federal debt ceiling. The Euro STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.8% after closing at a two-month low in the previous session. The MSCI world equity index (.MIWD00000PUS), which tracks shares in 47 countries, added 0.2%. Also bolstering the mood were U.S. Federal Reserve officials including governor and vice chair nominee Philip Jefferson pointing to a rate hike "skip" at the Fed's June 13-14 policy meeting. However, shortly after, the Fed's Jefferson said skipping a rate hike in two weeks would provide policymakers time to see more data before making a decision.

Persons: Joe Biden, Ray Attrill, Philip Jefferson, Sandrine Perret, Jefferson, Patrick Harker, It's, it's, Tony Sycamore, Tom Wilson, Kevin Buckland, Simon Cameron, Moore, Lincoln, Emelia Organizations: U.S . House, Republicans, National Australia Bank, Federal, Fed, Philadelphia Fed, IG Markets, Treasury, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, U.S, Unigestion, Asia, London, Tokyo

☆ Asia stocks gain as Fed hike bets recede, debt vote eases nerves
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TOKYO, June 1 (Reuters) - Most Asia-Pacific stock markets rose on Thursday amid receding bets for a U.S. rate hike this month and relief over the passage of the U.S. debt ceiling bill through the House. Treasury yields rose slightly from nearly two-week lows. ""What this does is it turns the attention to the incoming data and the Fed meeting this month," Attrill added. However, shortly after, the Fed's Jefferson said skipping a rate hike in two weeks would provide policymakers time to see more data before making a decision. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker also said on Wednesday that for now he is inclined to support a "skip" in rate hikes.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, Hong, HSI, Ray Attrill, Attrill, Jefferson, Patrick Harker, Kevin Buckland, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Federal, Treasury, Japan's Nikkei, Republicans, National Australia Bank, Philadelphia Fed, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Asia, Pacific, U.S, Tokyo

☆ Commercial real estate will suffer a recession if banks don't start lending again, warns property billionaire Ross Perot Jr.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The commercial real estate sector is at risk of a recession, warned Ross Perot Jr. The real estate billionaire said banks needed to lend to the industry to avoid a sharp downturn. "The key to commercial real estate today though will be banking," the real estate billionaire and son of two-time presidential candidate Ross Perot told Bloomberg on Wednesday. Several commentators including Elon Musk and Bill Ackman have sounded the alarm on commercial real estate in recent weeks. "That is why we will have a real estate recession if the banks do not start lending."

Persons: Ross Perot Jr, —, Ross Perot, Elon Musk, Bill Ackman, stoking, Hillwood Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First, Perot Jr, Perot Locations: Silicon, First Republic, —

☆ Vatican chastises bishops who stoke division on social media
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Philip Pullella | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

VATICAN CITY, May 29 (Reuters) - The Vatican urged bishops and high-profile lay Catholic leaders on Monday to tone down their comments on social media, saying some were causing division and stoking polemics that harmed the entire Church. A Pastoral Reflection on Engagement with Social Media." It condemned polarisation and extremism that had led to "digital tribalism" on social media, saying individuals were often locking themselves in silos of opinion that hindered dialogue and often led to violence, abuse and misinformation. "The Christian style should be reflective, not reactive, on social media. For example, when groups that present themselves as 'Catholic' use their social media presence to foster division, they are not behaving like a Christian community should," the document said.

☆ The G7 is accusing China of 'economic coercion.' Here's why.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-20 | by ( Ryan Hogg | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US has accused China of "economic coercion" and plans to take steps to counteract Beijing. What is "economic coercion" – and what can the West actually do about it? So what exactly is "economic coercion" – and what can the G7 do about it? According to Sullivan, this will involve measures that could enhance economic security for G7 nations. The West needs to work with Beijing on a range of issues that likely go beyond the countries' desire for economic security.

☆ Asian stocks inch up on US debt ceiling hopes, Nikkei hits 33-year high
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) rose 0.66%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) continued its ascent, rising to its highest since August 1990, during the country's so-called bubble era. Futures indicated European stocks were set to open higher, with Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.44%, German DAX futures up 0.41% and FTSE futures up 0.23%. China's blue-chip CSI300 Index (.CSI300) rose 0.20%, while the Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC) was up 0.13%, having reversed from earlier losses. Hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers continued with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard saying inflation was not cooling fast enough to allow the Fed to pause its interest-rate hike campaign. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar rose 0.029% and was wedged near a two-month high.

☆ Asian shares mixed as China growth worries crimp U.S. debt ceiling optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) eased 0.20% but was set to eke out a gain of 0.19% for the week. Data in the week underscored that China's economy lost momentum at the beginning of the second quarter, stoking worries over the wobbly post-COVID-19 recovery. Investor attention has been firmly on the negotiations over U.S. debt ceiling and increasing hopes that a deal could be reached sent U.S. shares higher overnight . Hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers continued with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard saying inflation was not cooling fast enough to allow the Fed to pause its interest-rate hike campaign. U.S. crude fell 0.14% to $71.76 per barrel and Brent was at $75.78, down 0.11% on the day.

☆ The S&P 500 will crash 30% by December as spending slumps, profits shrink, and banking problems mount, markets guru Larry McDonald warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 will plunge by almost 30% to around 3,000 points by December, Larry McDonald has warned. He sees less government spending, slimmer corporate profits, and banking pressures as key drivers. McDonald made a similar call in early March, when he declared the stock market could tank 30% within the next 60 days. The prospect of less spending and investment, stricter lending, steeper debt payments, and greater unemployment bodes poorly for corporate profits and stock prices. Instead, he recommended beaten-down, cyclical stocks in sectors such as energy, and hard assets such as gold, silver, and platinum.

☆ Analysis: Qatar takes diplomatic back seat as Saudi flexes political muscle
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Andrew Mills | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Qatar has been steadily mending ties with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Qatar cast the Syrian National Coalition as a government-in-exile, handing them Syria's Arab League seat and opening the Doha mission in a villa nearby other embassies. Several Gulf states including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates began backing rebel groups fighting to oust Assad from power. As Syria's anti-Assad movement lost ground, "Saudi Arabia and the UAE shifted their policy most dramatically but Qatar has not," Kamrava said. Qatar initially opposed efforts this spring by Saudi Arabia to galvanise support to readmit Syria to the Arab League following its 2011 suspension.

☆ Mike Pence rejects Trump's call to let U.S. default as he hints at 2024 White House bid
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Kevin Breuninger | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Former Vice President Mike Pence on Wednesday highlighted sharp differences with his former boss, rejecting ex-President Donald Trump's stances on the debt ceiling and Ukraine while stoking more speculation about his 2024 presidential ambitions. "When it comes to the debt ceiling, failure is not an option," Pence said on CNBC's "Squawk Box." "We can't accept default, we can't minimize the impact that would have on American families and American credibility in the world." "We'll let our intentions be known, I'm confident, before the end of June," Pence said of his possible presidential campaign announcement. Pence said that backing Ukraine "also sends a decisive message to China with their military provocations."

☆ Mohamed El-Erian says regional banks are in a 'hospital' phase of turmoil, but a Fed policy mistake will drive them 'back into the ICU'
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The regional banking crisis has shifted out a severe stage, economist Mohamed El-Erian told Bloomberg on Tuesday. But another Fed policy mistake could drive small to mid-sized lenders "back into the ICU." If there's another [Fed] policy mistake, the patient goes back into the ICU," said the chief economic adviser at Allianz. Depositors have yanked hundreds of billions of dollars out of regional lenders collectively this year, including PacWest and First Republic Bank. What would another policy mistake look like to El-Erian?

☆ Bat lands worldwide are besieged, seeding risk of a new pandemic
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +16 min

This collision – bats and humans competing for resources on territory long the domain of the bats – could trigger the next pandemic. As people destroy bat habitats worldwide, they are unwittingly helping bat-borne viruses mutate, multiply, and infect other species, including homo sapiens. For millennia, bat viruses lurked across the forests of West Africa and in other undisturbed parts of the world but posed little threat to humanity. They’re potent proliferators: Some roost tightly together and in close quarters with other bat species. Each of the bat viruses analyzed by Reuters has epidemic potential, according to the World Health Organization.

☆ Investors may be crowding too much into defensive stocks amid market jitters
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The S & P 500 posted its second straight weekly decline, falling 0.3% this week. Given this backdrop, investors have turned to several consumer staples — traditionally seen as defensive stocks — to shore up their portfolios. Mondelez , PepsiCo and Molson Coors — all staples — are the most overbought S & P 500 names through Friday's session. Shares of Mondelez have rallied more than 16% year to date, easily outperforming the S & P 500's 7.4% advance. Estee Lauder is the most oversold S & P 500 stock.

[1/4] A costumer counts money before buying tangerines in a green grocery store, as Argentines struggle amid rising inflation, in Buenos Aires, Argentina May 11, 2023. REUTERS/Agustin MarcarianBUENOS AIRES, May 12 (Reuters) - Argentina's annual inflation rate soared to 109% in April, the country's statistics agency said on Friday, smashing past analyst forecasts and stoking anger among hard-hit consumers who are increasingly having to skimp and save to get by. 2 economy, posted 8.4% monthly inflation in April, well above analyst forecasts of 7.5% and the highest in decades. The highest analyst estimate in a Reuters poll for April's monthly inflation rate had been 8.3%. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReporting by Miguel Lo Bianco; Writing by Nicolás Misculin; Editing by Adam JourdanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Eurovision: The coronation may have passed off peacefully. But song contest could be a bigger headache
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Luke Mcgee | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

London CNN —Britain’s security services are quietly relieved that the coronation of King Charles III passed without major incident – save for some accusations of heavy-handed policing. On the face of it, the stakes associated with the grand final of the Eurovision Song Contest would not appear to be particularly high. For that reason, British security officials are more exercised than they might otherwise have been about a kitschy musical competition. “On one hand you have thousands of people enjoying the nightlife, which means potential of physical targets and organized crime. This year’s event is, at its heart, a partnership between the UK and Ukraine, two major thorns in the Kremlin’s side.

☆ US small business sentiment slumps to more than 10-year low
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

WASHINGTON, May 9 (Reuters) - U.S. small business confidence fell to more than a 10-year low in April on worries about the near-term economic outlook and persistent worker shortages, but there were few signs that businesses were having difficulties accessing credit. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said on Tuesday its Small Business Optimism Index dropped 1.1 points to 89.0 last month, the lowest level since January 2013. "As we've argued before, though, measures of sentiment are often a poor guide of what is likely to happen in the economy because it tells us more about how business owners are feeling, rather than what they are doing." The share of owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months fell two points to a net negative 49%. Forty-five percent of owners reported job openings that they could not fill, up 2 points from March.

BEIJING, May 8 (Reuters) - The Global Times, a hawkish Chinese state media tabloid, on Monday criticised a letter of protest sent to it by South Korea's embassy in China, the latest public spat amid worsening ties between the Asian neighbours. The South Korean embassy "expressed strong regret over a series of unreasonable slanderous articles" from the Global Times, in a letter of protest published Friday on its website. In its editorial, the Global Times slammed the embassy's "brutal interference in (its) independent reporting". South Korea's embassy in China did not immediately respond to a request for comment. In a similar incident last December, China's ambassador in South Korea criticised Korean media for stoking anti-China sentiment.

☆ Social Media Companies Need to Address Speech That Incites Fear - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( Julia Angwin | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

But by allowing such speech to be disseminated on their platforms, the social media companies were doing something that should perhaps concern us even more: They were stoking fear of a marginalized group. Nearly all of the tech platforms developed extensive and detailed rules banning hate speech after finding that the first thing that happens on a new social network is that users start tossing slurs at one another. The European Union even monitors the speediness with which tech platforms remove hate speech. But fear is weaponized even more than hate by leaders who seek to spark violence. Hate is often part of the equation, of course, but fear is almost always the key ingredient when people feel they must lash out to defend themselves.

WASHINGTON, May 4 (Reuters) - Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said on Thursday that granting U.S. access to Philippine military bases was a defensive step that would be "useful" if China attacked Taiwan. Marcos told Reuters the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) reached with the United States in 2014 was originally conceived to improve disaster responses. Marcos said Washington "has not proposed any kind of action for the Philippines in terms of taking part in the defense of Taiwan." Biden said on Monday that the U.S. commitment to the defense of its ally was "ironclad," including in the South China Sea, and that the guidelines issued on Wednesday laid out treaty commitments if either side were attacked in the South China Sea. He said the patrols would help preserve freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, where China has a growing military presence.

☆ Giant loans on 10 major US office towers are due soon, stoking fears of more defaults that could be the next crisis to hit banks — and the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Alex Nicoll | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

About $80 billion in office loans come due this year, threatening defaults. High-profile owners like Blackstone and Brookfield have walked away from major office loans as high interest rates and tighter lending levels have made refinancing debts more costly. Some analysts have even said that commercial real estate debt is the next big danger for the stock market. The leading research firm analyzing commercial real estate debt, Trepp, has a front-row seat to the reckoning. Office landlords' leasing, and therefore revenue, has fallen significantly due to the rise of remote work.

☆ New Yorkers to protest chokehold killing on subway, demand criminal charges
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Julia Harte | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The examiner's homicide finding alone does not imply intent or culpability, which are issues that prosecutors will consider in deciding whether to bring criminal charges. The 24-year-old former Marine, who was white, was questioned by police and released on Monday, local media said. A video of the incident that has circulated on social media showed an unidentified passenger applying a chokehold to a man identified as Neely on the floor of a subway train for more than three minutes. Democratic U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, whose district includes neighborhoods in the New York City boroughs of the Bronx and Queens, said Neely was murdered and called for his killer's arrest. Reporting by Brendan O'Brien in Chicago and Julia Harte in New York Editing by Alistair BellOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The latest case in point: The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) chose JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) as the winning bidder in an auction to buy collapsed lender First Republic Bank on Monday. FDIC officials, however, say would-be buyers risk losing out if they allow the value of an acquisition target to deteriorate over time while waiting for an FDIC receivership. SWEETENERSU.S. bank mergers were already sluggish as interest rates rose and recession loomed, analysts at Raymond James wrote in an Apr. The first quarter was the quietest opening to a year for bank deals in a generation, they said. Market volatility stops bank buyers from pulling together enough money to cover writedowns on struggling assets, which would be triggered by a traditional acquisition, said David Sandler, co-head of financial services investment banking at Piper Sandler Companies (PIPR.N).

☆ Bank Stocks Bounce as Investors Rethink Economic Outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Joe Rennison | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

A group of regional bank stocks that came under severe pressure on Thursday, stoking fears of a spiraling banking crisis, surged on Friday, at least partially alleviating those worries. The rebound came as the market was also bolstered by data on hiring deemed strong enough to soften concerns about a recession without prompting the Federal Reserve to tighten the screws on the economy further. PacWest soared nearly 80 percent, after falling over 50 percent on Thursday. Western Alliance’s share price rose more than 30 percent, also recouping a chunk of its drop the day before. The relief rally helped to lift the broader market, with the S&P 500 up 1.5 percent heading into the afternoon.

WASHINGTON, May 4 (Reuters) - Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said on Thursday his agreement this year to grant the United States access to more military bases in his country was not intended for use for "offensive action" against any country. Speaking to a U.S. think-tank in Washington, Marcos said he had made that point to Chinese officials during recent talks. He also said the U.S. had not asked the Philippines to provide troops in case of war between China and the U.S. over Taiwan. Marcos told the Center for Strategic and International Studies that the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) that allows access to bases in the Philippines was conceived to deal with the effects of climate change. Manila's ties with Washington have deepened under Marcos and he granted the U.S. military access to four more bases in February, something China said was "stoking the fire" of regional tension.

☆ U.S. issues guidelines on defending Philippines from South China Sea attack
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Karen Lema | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The guidelines said the bilateral treaty commitments would be invoked if either is attacked specifically in the South China Sea and also if coast guard vessels were the target. 'WARNING' TO CHINAThe South China Sea, a waterway vital to global trade, has become a major flashpoint in the increasingly testy relationship between China and the United States. China's foreign ministry on Thursday said it opposed the use of bilateral defence treaties to interfere in the South China Sea, which "should not be a hunting ground for external forces". The guidelines were released during visit to Washington this week by Marcos, which included talks with counterpart Joe Biden. Marcos also met Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who told him "we will always have your back, in the South China Sea or elsewhere in the region."

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