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The small-cap benchmark Russell 2000 jumped 2% on Tuesday, heading for its fifth straight winning day. Small-cap companies are especially sensitive to rate policy, as their financing costs rise when interest rates are high. Falling rates could be a boon for these names, said Kostin, Goldman's chief equity strategist, on CNBC's " Squawk on the Street ." In that period, the Russell 2000 Index has added more than 11%, compared with the S & P 500 's 4% advance. In 2024, the S & P 500 has surged more than 18%, while the Russell 2000 has added 10%.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Jerome Powell, Russell Organizations: Russell, Federal
With the S & P 500 surging more than 18% in 2024, it might be time for investors to make a few defensive moves in their portfolios. But that surge is spurring some financial advisors to reassess their clients' exposure to large-cap tech and turn toward currently unloved asset categories that could be poised to rise. "It might take a little longer to manifest but we think [health care] is an interesting combination of offense and defense, and it provides meaningful cash flows for investors," Saccocia said. Checking in on risk and cash Investors reviewing their 2024 gains should also reassess their risk profile and consider whether their asset allocation reflects their long-term goals. Tom Balcom, CFP and founder of 1650 Wealth Management in Lighthouse Point, Florida, has used custom market-linked notes to hedge clients' exposure to the market.
Persons: Nvidia —, Shon Anderson, Russell, Jerome Powell's, Shannon Saccocia, Neuberger Berman, Saccocia, Colin Gerrety, Gerrety, Tom Balcom, Balcom, Morningstar Organizations: Nvidia, Anderson Financial, Federal, Big Tech, Investors, JPMorgan Chase, UnitedHealth, Wealth Services Locations: Dayton , Ohio, REITs, North Bethesda , Maryland, Lighthouse Point , Florida
So when worldwide events like the Covid-19 pandemic push inflation well above that 2% target, it can be a real shock to consumers. There are a handful of retail categories, dominated by consumer electronics, that buck the trend and are actually cheaper now than they were before the pandemic, based on a CNBC review of CPI categories in June 2024 compared with June 2019. Same price, better valueEven when annual inflation was at its peak, prices for consumer electronics consistently showed signs of deflation. Such hedonic adjustments — the term BLS uses to describe it's adjustments for changes in item quality — span the whole consumer price index and include categories from men's underwear to home computers to refrigerators. Why televisions continue to be cheapBut hedonic adjustments can't account for everything when the CPI is registering drops in prices.
Persons: it's, Andrew Csicsila, That's, Csicsila Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC, CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Americas
Treasury yields fall as investors digest Powell comments
  + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over three basis points to 4.1983%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last more than one basis point lower to 4.4404%. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Tuesday as investors weighed comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on the outlook for the economy and interest rates. On Monday, Powell said the central bank will not wait until inflation has reached its 2% target rate before cutting interest rates. Powell, however, said the Fed is still looking for "greater confidence" that inflation will return to 2%.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, Traders
IMF sees ‘bumps’ in path to lower inflation
  + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday that upside risks to inflation have increased, calling into question the prospect of multiple Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. In its latest World Economic Outlook update, the IMF said "the momentum on global disinflation is slowing, signaling bumps along the path." The rise in sequential inflation in the U.S. earlier in 2024 has put it behind other major economies in the quantitative easing path, the report said. However, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" on Tuesday that one rate cut from the Fed is most appropriate this year, highlighting still-stubborn services and wage inflation as complications to the path to lower inflation. Despite the encouraging CPI report, Gourinchas stated the uptick in inflation earlier in the year indicates that the path toward lower inflation and rate cuts "could take a little bit longer than maybe the markets are expecting."
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, CNBC's, Gourinchas Organizations: Monetary Fund, Traders, U.S . Labor Department Locations: U.S
CNN —In 2018, Jonathan and Trista Schmier felt the economy was so strong that they could take a big risk. “The customers got very, very upset.”Trista and Jonathan Schmier felt confident enough about the economy during the Trump administration to open a small chain of restaurants. Poll after poll show that voters have more faith in Trump’s ability to handle the economy than President Joe Biden’s. By many measures, however, the economy under Biden — who took office while the pandemic was still underway — has also been strong. “I trust the other guy better,” said Southworth, 74, referring to Trump, whom he voted for in 2016 and 2020.
Persons: Jonathan, Trista Schmier, Angus, , Jonathan Schmier, ” Trista, Trump, Andrew Craft, Donald Trump, Joe Biden’s, Biden, Carroll Doherty, Doherty, Trump’s, Barack Obama, Biden —, , Bernard Yaros, ’ paychecks, Jimmy Carter, ” Yaros, Yaros, Ted Southworth, Ted, Rebecca Southworth, Ted Southworth Southworth, Southworth, Becky Cantrell, Cantrell Organizations: CNN, Fayetteville Observer, USA, Pew Research Center, Biden, Black Americans, Census Bureau, Oxford Economics, Trump Locations: Burger, Fayetteville , North Carolina, Burlington , North Carolina, , Florida
Traders see the odds of a Fed rate cut by September at 100%
  + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Traders are now 100% certain the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by September. That put the annual inflation rate at 3%, the lowest in three years. Odds that rates would be cut in September were about 70% a month ago. The CME FedWatch Tool computes the probabilities based on trading in fed funds futures contracts at the exchange, where traders are placing their bets on the level of the effective fed funds rate in 30-day increments. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's recent hints have also cemented traders' belief that the central bank will act by September.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jerome Powell's, Powell Organizations: Bank, Financial, Federal, U.S, Capitol, Washington , DC, Traders, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Washington ,
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Monday that the central bank will not wait until inflation hits 2% to cut interest rates. Speaking at the Economic Club of Washington D.C., Powell referenced the idea that central bank policy works with "long and variable lags" to explain why the Fed wouldn't wait for its target to be hit. Instead, the central bank is looking for "greater confidence" that inflation will return to the 2% level, Powell said. "What increases that confidence in that is more good inflation data, and lately here we have been getting some of that," he said. Powell said at the top of his appearance that he was not intending to make any signals about when the Fed might start to cut interest rates.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, you've, Powell's Organizations: Economic, of Washington D.C
The Russell 2000 gained 6% last week, its best week of the year, and looks poised to rally further on Monday. A cool consumer price index report last week was seen as a major catalyst for small caps, as it suggested interest rates could go lower. "Many investors view small caps as a potential 'Trump trade,' but the path for small cap outperformance is a narrow one," the note said. Kostin said that small caps outperformed after Trump's 2016 election, but that was when interest rates were much lower. The Goldman note was published before the attempted assassination of Trump on Saturday.
Persons: Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, Russell, David Kostin, Joe Biden, PredictIt, Kostin, Trump, Goldman Organizations: Republican, Trump
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to address the Economic Club of Washington, D.C., on Monday as traders look for hints about when the central bank will cut interest rates. Powell will partake in a discussion with David Rubenstein, chairman of the Economic Club and co-founder of The Carlyle Group. These will be Powell's first remarks since Thursday's consumer price index report, which showed that prices went down in June on a monthly basis. He also said the central bank did not need to wait for inflation to actually reach its 2% target before cutting rates. The Federal Reserve has a policy meeting at the end of July, but a rate cut is seen unlikely at that time.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, David Rubenstein Organizations: Economic, of Washington, of Washington , D.C, Economic Club, The, Group, Capitol, Fed, Federal, Traders Locations: of Washington ,
A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 3, 2024. U.S. stock futures were slightly higher on Monday after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high. The market also continued its rotation into small-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 rising 1.8% during Monday's session. The Russell 2000 posted a 6% gain last week. Lee said that small-cap stocks look comparatively more oversold, with valuations even lower this time around.
Persons: Donald Trump, Russell, Tom Lee, Lee, Morgan Stanley, UnitedHealth, Charles Schwab Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Republican, GOP, Fundstrat Global Advisors, Bank of America Locations: New York City, U.S
The Fed shouldn't cut interest rates at all this year, strategist Jim Bianco said. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve risks prematurely cutting interest rates right as the US economy is poised to reaccelerate, Jim Bianco told CNBC. Related storiesBacking the notion are promising declines in inflation and a cooling of the labor market. AdvertisementFed fund futures indicate that three 25-basis point interest rate cuts could come this year, starting in September. Interest rates will remain pressured by today's high level of government spending and continued consumer strength.
Persons: Jim Bianco, , there'll, Brian Rose, Bianco, they're, " Bianco, Charles Schwab, Schwab Organizations: Service, Reserve, CNBC, Bianco Research, Fed, UBS, ISM Services
As long as inflation continues to slow, mortgage rates should ease throughout the remainder of 2024, improving affordability for hopeful homebuyers. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Go Down (-0.41%)The average 15-year mortgage rate is 5.66%, 41 basis points lower than last week. Mortgage Refinance Rates30-Year Fixed Refinance Rates Decrease (-0.39%)The average 30-year refinance rate is 7.45%, 39 basis points down from last week. Mortgage rates also rose dramatically in 2023, though they started trending back down toward the end of the year.
Persons: you'll, It's, refinance Organizations: Federal, of Labor Statistics, Zillow, FHA Locations: Chevron
Mortgage rates dropped last week and remain low today. This should remove a lot of upward pressure off of mortgage rates and allow them to trend down. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates inched down to 6.17% last week, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates increased dramatically over the last two years, but they're expected to go down at some point this year.
Persons: you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Zillow Locations: May's, Chevron
In the meantime, you can stay up to date on the latest business news with CNN’s Business Nightcap newsletter. Access to credit is especially crucial for small, private businesses that aren’t able raise money through financial markets. “There were a number of programs out there to support small businesses during the depths of the pandemic, and there were relatively fewer filings than usual in 2021 and 2022.”Rising corporate bankruptcies could just reflect a lot of churn occurring in Corporate America, Jamner said. Don’t panicMost banks offer free checking if, for instance, customers have their paycheck direct deposited or they maintain an average minimum balance, reports my colleague Jeanne Sahadi. Marianne Lake, the head of Chase Bank, told the Wall Street Journal last week that Chase might stop offering free checking and other free banking services.
Persons: It’s, ” “, Matt Rowe, Josh Jamner, Jamner, we’re, Reena Aggarwal, , , Banks, Jeanne Sahadi, Marianne Lake, Chase, Jaret, Read, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Mary Daly, Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, Adriana Kugler, Johnson, Kinder Morgan, Tom Barkin, Lorie Logan, Michelle Bowman, John Williams, Raphael Bostic Organizations: CNN’s Business, Washington CNN —, P Global Market Intelligence, CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, Nomura Capital Management, Consumer, Institute for Supply, P, ClearBridge Investments, , Corporate America, Federal, Fed, Georgetown University Psaros Center, Financial Markets, Chase Bank, Wall, TD Securities, BlackRock, San Francisco Fed, Bank of America, PNC, State, US Commerce Department, US Labor Department, National Association of Home Builders, Johnson, US Bancorp, Discover, Vegas Sands, Northern Trust, Citizens, United Airlines, National Statistics, Federal Reserve, Richmond Fed, Netflix, Novartis, Abbott Laboratories, Marsh, Blackstone, Infosys, Cintas, T Bank, Nokia, American Airlines, European Central Bank, American Express, Fifth Third Bancorp, AutoNation Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Corporate, UnitedHealth, Wells Fargo, Vegas, Equifax, Northern, McLennan, Schlumberger, Haliburton
If Thursday's move into real estate stocks is reflective of a bigger trend, there's still time to make winning investments in the housing sector. As big technology stocks tumbled, traders jumped into real estate-connected holdings on a hunch that the sector would benefit from a lower-rate environment. Exactly 55% of analysts rate the stock a buy, with an average price target showing shares can rise close to 15%. About 2 out of every 3 analysts rate the stock a buy, and the average price target implies shares can climb almost 20%. The average price target reflects further upside of more than 16% over the next year.
Persons: Wells, Sam Reid, Reid, Azek, Reuben Garner, Seth Sigman, Sigman Organizations: Home, CNBC Pro, CNBC, Toll, Barclays Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo
A double whammyFor aspiring homebuyers such as Burress, the combination of high mortgage rates and rising list prices has left them feeling boxed out. The 30-year mortgage rate, a popular option for home financing in the U.S., has bounced around 7% for the past several months. Given this, co-author Jonah Coste said current owners touting these low mortgage rates are undoubtedly better off than those looking to buy a first home today. After welcoming three kids, they're holding off on a fourth until mortgage rates or home prices come down enough to upsize. To be clear, mortgage rates tend to follow the path of Fed-set interest levels, but they aren't the same thing.
Persons: Brandon Bell, Rachel Burress, Burress, who've, that's, That's, Jonah Coste, there's, They're, Coste, they're, Luke Nunley, Nunley, We'd, Jeffrey Roach, LPL, Roach, hasn't, It's, Daryl Fairweather, Lindsey Nicholson Organizations: Getty, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Association of Realtors, Federal Reserve, Corcoran Realty, UCG Locations: Austin , Texas, Fort Worth , Texas, Aledo, U.S, Atlanta, Kentucky, Forest Hills, Queens , New York
Three of our Club rate plays — solar panel company Nextracker , Stanley Black & Decker , and Ford — were our top-performing stocks for the week. Friday also ushered in the start of the second quarter earnings season. Earnings Club name Morgan Stanley reports second-quarter earnings before Tuesday's opening bell. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Nextracker, Stanley Black, Decker, Ford —, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Abbott, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, JB Hunt, Johnson, Ally, Kinder Morgan, Horton, Huntington, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Ted Pick, Adam Galici Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Big Tech, PPI, Abbott Laboratories, Libre Rio, Bank of America, PNC Financial, PNC, Pinnacle Financial, Housing, U.S . Bancorp, Northern Trust Corporation, Citizens, United Airlines, Alcoa, Steel Dynamics, Green Realty, Taiwan Semiconductor, Nokia, Infosys Technologies, McLennan Companies, T Bank Corp, Forestar, Novartis, Textron, Netflix, PPG Industries, AAR, American Express, Fifth Third Bancorp, Halliburton, HAL, Comerica, CMA, Financial, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: Wells, BlackRock, BLK, U.S, Marsh, Davos, Switzerland
Roberto Schmidt | AFP | Getty ImagesIt's no secret that the housing market looks far different than it did a few years ago. While surging mortgage rates and housing prices have taken away consumers' purchasing power, low supply has kept the market competitive. A higher rate, in reality, results in more interest due on a home loan. Housing prices are also central to the equation for everyday Americans decision how much, or if, they can afford to spend. One from the National Association of Realtors found affordability tumbled more than 33% between 2021 and 2023 alone.
Persons: Roberto Schmidt, it's, Dow Organizations: AFP, Getty, Dow Jones, National Association of Realtors, Atlanta Federal, Atlanta Fed Locations: Clarksburg , Maryland
But don't bet on a soft landing outcome for the US economy as the Fed gets set to cut rates, says famed economist David Rosenberg. AdvertisementRosenberg ResearchRosenberg's downbeat views on the labor market come amid his skepticism about the impressive rallies in major stock-market indexes like the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500. Still, as Rosenberg points out, some say the Fed needs to act urgently as the labor market weakens. Waiting too long to lower interest rates to support the economy will only increase the odds of the job market breaking down." Rosenberg has been consistently bearish on the US economy in recent months, while the labor market has continued to prove him wrong.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's, Eli Lilly, Russell, Neil Dutta, Dutta Organizations: Service, Fed, Rosenberg Research, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics ', Survey, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Macro
Average 30-year mortgage rates fell to 6.89%, down six basis points from the week before, according to Freddie Mac. As inflation slows and the Federal Reserve is able to start lowering the federal funds rate, mortgage rates are expected to trend down. This would remove a significant amount of upward pressure off of mortgage rates, allowing them to finally trend down. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. Now that the Fed has paused hiking rates, mortgage rates have come down a bit.
Persons: Freddie Mac Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Zillow, Fed Locations: May's, Chevron
Green day : A lot was working in the stock market on Friday. But it was hard to see through an ugly rotation out of this year's Big Tech winners in favor of more interest rate-sensitive stocks. Many of our hot tech stocks took a breather this week. It's more evidence of why Jim Cramer calls these two names "own, don't trade" stocks. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Dow, Russell, Eli Lilly, Lilly, Wells Fargo, NII, toolmaker Stanley Black, Decker, Morgan Stanley, That's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Big Tech, Federal, Nasdaq, PPI, Fed, Meta, Nvidia, Apple, Ford, Abbott Laboratories, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Financial, Nurphoto, Getty Locations: Morphic, Wells, New York City, Mairo
Wall Street’s expectations for a September rate cut rose to roughly 93% on Thursday from 73% the day before, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. “A September rate cut should be a done deal at this point,” wrote Ron Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, in a Thursday note. Some economists worry that if the Fed doesn’t cut rates by then, cracks could begin to deepen in the labor market. A September rate cut “may not be the magic elixir some investors are seeking,” wrote Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, in a Monday note. On an annual basis, consumer prices are increasing at their slowest pace since June 2023, matching the lowest annual rate since early 2021.
Persons: , Ron Temple, Jerome Powell didn’t, Brent Schutte, Alicia Wallace, , Elisabeth Buchwald, McDonald’s, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Lazard, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, Taco Bell Locations: New York, Burger
Early Friday, the yen also suddenly strengthened against the dollar after the U.S. inflation data release, prompting analysts and traders to suspect a possible intervention from the country's ministry of finance. The yen traded at 158.55 against the U.S. dollar at roughly 12 a.m. Tokyo time after trading around 161.52 late Thursday. The currency strengthened further against the greenback, currently standing at 158.23. On Friday, Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said that authorities will take action as needed in the foreign exchange market. Reuters also reported that Kanda said recent yen moves were somewhat rapid, but declined to comment on whether authorities had intervened in the currency.
Persons: Masato Kanda, Kanda Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, greenback, Reuters Locations: Asia, Pacific, U.S, Tokyo
IWM 5D mountain iShares Russell 2000 ETF Next week's earnings results will help investors glean whether that rotation trade is sustainable. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is weighted more toward the real economy than is the S & P 500 and Nasdaq, rose to a new record above 40,000. According to FactSet consensus estimates, S & P 500 companies are set to post blended earnings growth of 9.2% in the second quarter. "It's not unthinkable to see us exiting this year at 5,800 on the S & P," he said. This follows a difficult 2Q, when 75% of Large Cap Core managers trailed the S & P 500," Palfrey wrote.
Persons: Patrick Palfrey, Hogan, Keith Buchanan, Buchanan, Palfrey, David Sekera, Quincy Krosby, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Huntington Organizations: Nasdaq, UBS, Investors, Riley, Dow Jones, Globalt Investments, Riley Securities, Big Tech, Core, LPL, BlackRock, Bank of America, Taiwan Semiconductor, Price, Retail, Hunt Transport Services, State, PNC Financial Services, UnitedHealth, United Airlines, Discover Financial Services, U.S . Bancorp, Johnson, Citizens Financial Group, Philadelphia Fed, Netflix, T Bank, KeyCorp, American Express, Halliburton, Fifth Third Bancorp, Regions Locations: Nasdaq, NAHB, Horton, Blackstone, Taiwan
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