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☆ Good news: The ‘hard landing’ forecasters got it wrong
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

But as we wind down 2024, one thing appears clear: The naysayers on Team Hard Landing got it wrong. The “soft landing” versus “hard landing” metaphor — perhaps overused but visually handy — refers to the economy as an airplane and the Fed as the pilot. Pull the right levers at the right time, and you get a nice comfortable soft landing, with inflation cooling and the labor market thriving. He was far from alone in thinking that a soft landing was little more than a fantasy. “We should just drop the soft landing versus hard landing discourse and start talking about a robust expansion at mid-cycle,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, told Schwab Network in an interview.

Persons: CNN Business ’, everyone’s, ”, Sung Won Sohn, we’d, ” Aaron, “, there’s, Justin Wolfers, Bill Dudley, “ I’ve, Dudley, Larry Summers, they’re, Joe Brusuelas Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Loyola Marymount University, Fed, . Upjohn Institute, Employment Research, ICYMI, Bureau of Labor Statistics —, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Bloomberg, RSM, Schwab Network Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ David Roche says misleading 50-basis-point Fed cut will create market instability
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDavid Roche says misleading 50-basis-point Fed cut will create market instabilityDavid Roche, strategist at Quantum Strategy, says the Federal Reserve's initial jumbo cut gives markets the wrong impression that rates will return to rock bottom.

Persons: David Roche Organizations: Quantum

☆ Branch: The data indicated we didn't need an interest rate cut.
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBranch: The data indicated we didn't need an interest rate cut. Greg Branch of Branch Global Advisors believes a Fed rate cut may not be necessary due to strong economic data, such as GDP and wage growth.

Persons: Greg Branch Organizations: Branch Global Advisors

☆ Fed cuts could turn the tide for commercial real estate. Where to find opportunity
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may help turn the tide for commercial real estate. "Lower interest rates are not a magic bullet, but less restrictive monetary policy lays the groundwork for a commercial real estate recovery," wrote senior economist Charlie Dougherty. "Decreased long-term interest rates appear to be easing upward pressure on cap rates and slowing declines in property valuations. "That said, reduced interest rates should prevent distress from spreading and shorten the hurdles coming down the road," he added. Gimple specifically likes single-asset, single-borrower CMBS and commercial real estate collateralized loan obligations.

Persons: Wells Fargo, Charlie Dougherty, Dougherty, Douglas Gimple, Gimple, It's, that's Organizations: Treasury, Companies, Fed Locations: Central, Diamond, Los Angeles, New York, Miami, Hawaii

☆ Fed rate cuts would 'undoubtedly' be positive for Southeast Asian markets: Warburg Pincus
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed rate cuts would 'undoubtedly' be positive for Southeast Asian markets: Warburg PincusSaurabh Agarwal, head of Southeast Asia private equity at Warburg Pincus, says "we're very confident and optimistic with the rate cuts … these markets will come back to their 6-7% real GDP growth trajectory in the near term."

Persons: Warburg Pincus Saurabh Agarwal, Warburg Pincus Organizations: Warburg Locations: Asia

☆ Yields are rising for the right reasons, says Solus' Dan Greenhaus
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYields are rising for the right reasons, says Solus' Dan GreenhausDan Greenhaus, Solus Alternative Asset, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss geopolitical tensions, the Fed and the jobs data and what it all means for the market.

Persons: Solus, Dan Greenhaus Dan Greenhaus Organizations: Fed

☆ Banks prefer a less aggressive Fed over the near term, says Baird's David George
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBanks prefer a less aggressive Fed over the near term, says Baird's David GeorgeDavid George, Baird senior research analyst of U.S. banks, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss bank earnings kicking off this week, what the group would like from the Fed going forward, and more.

Persons: Banks, Baird's David George David George, Baird

☆ Here are Monday's biggest analyst calls: Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Campbell Soup, Gilead, American Express & more
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

Wells Fargo upgrades Gilead to overweight from equal weight Wells says the biopharma company has an attractive setup. Wells Fargo upgrades Canadian National to overweight from equal weight Wells says it sees "accelerating growth" for the railway company. Barclays downgrades Netflix to underweight from equal weight Barclay says the "growth algorithm is getting more complex." Wells Fargo downgrades Amazon to equal weight from overweight Wells says the "positive revision story [is] on pause for Amazon. JPMorgan upgrades Ally Financial to overweight from neutral and downgrades American Express to neutral from overweight JPMorgan downgraded American Express and says it sees "asymmetric risk."

Persons: Jefferies, Wells, Morgan Stanley, it's bullish, Barclay, NFLX, Piper Sandler, Piper, Mizuho, JPMorgan downgrades Lamb Weston, JPMorgan, downgrades Sherwin, Williams, KeyBanc, Bernstein, Campbell, underperform Bernstein, Coupang, CPNG, Barclays downgrades, Avery Dennison, Garmin, Hershey Organizations: Apple, Apple Intelligence LT, UW, Vertiv Holdings, Coty, Barclays, Netflix, MKSI, Mizuho, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, Alliance, Deutsche, UBS, NXP, Express, American Express, Barclays downgrades DuPont, DuPont, Bank of America downgrades Constellation Brands, Bank of America, Constellation Brands, Bank of America downgrades Comerica, of America, CMA, Air Products, Hershey Locations: OW, Gilead, Canada, underperform

☆ Brace for stock-market volatility this week if inflation comes in hot after the September jobs report, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A blockbuster jobs report raises the stakes for upcoming inflation data, BofA analysts say. AdvertisementThe September jobs report was good news, but it gives investors more reason to brace for the next inflation reading, Bank of America analysts say. Economists forecast the CPI report will show inflation continued to cool last month, rising 2.3% year-over-year compared to 2.5% in August. AdvertisementHowever, with the blockbuster September jobs report, some economists say inflation is still a concern. The September jobs report blew past forecasts, with 254,000 nonfarm payrolls added compared to expectations of 150,000.

Persons: —, Brian Rose Organizations: Service, Bank of America, CPI, Fed, UBS

☆ A recession next year is now even less likely following the blowout jobs report, says Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Friday's knockout jobs report has squashed fears of an imminent recession. Goldman Sachs cut the chances of a recession in the next year to 15%, and other analysts cheered. AdvertisementRecession fears have weighed on Wall Street recently, but Friday's blowout jobs report has assuaged worries of an imminent economic downturn. "Friday's US labor report put paid to US recession fears," Rabobank's research team wrote. The latest jobs report has relieved some concerns about the economy, but also dashed hopes for another jumbo cut in November.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, Stocks, Goldman, Saxo, Kamala Harris Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Labor Statistics, Federal Locations: There's

Since the Fed will likely be able to take a slower approach to lowering rates, mortgage rates are unlikely to go down further this year. Current 30-Year Mortgage RatesAverage 30-year mortgage rates are around 6%, according to Zillow data. In September, 30-year refinance rates averaged 5.89%, while 15-year refinance rates were around 5.19%. Mortgage rates are determined by a variety of different factors, including larger economic trends, Federal Reserve policy, your state's current mortgage rates, the type of loan you're getting, and your personal financial profile. Now that the Fed has cut rates, mortgage rates may not drop much in October.

Persons: they're, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's, they've Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal, Zillow, Fed Locations: U.S, Chevron

☆ What a hot job market means for inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-06 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —The US job market is still piping hot. That comes after the Federal Reserve last month cut interest rates by a jumbo half-point, signaling that it is turning its attention from tamping down inflation to keeping the job market steady. But some warn that a still-strong labor market could make it more difficult for inflation to continue cooling. That’s because a low unemployment rate and hot job market underline a strong American consumer, whose spending helps drive up the cost of goods and services. Consumer inflation eased to its slowest annual pace since February 2021 in August, continuing a trend of cooling down in recent months.

Persons: FactSet, ”, Seema Shah, “, Gina Bolvin Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Investors, “, Fed, Asset Management, Labor Statistics, Bolvin Wealth Management Group, International Longshoremen’s Association, United States Maritime Alliance Locations: New York, July’s, Israel, Iran, Russia, Ukraine

☆ Insider Today: Consultants hit the exits
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-06 | by ( Matt Turner | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . This week's dispatchHot jobs reportgradyreese/Getty, Tyler Le/BIThe US economy added way more jobs in September than expected. AdvertisementThe jobs report on Friday showed 254,000 jobs added, way ahead of the 147,000 expected, while unemployment dropped to 4.1%. Here's what it all means:Rates: The strong job numbers likely mean a longer wait for lower rates.

Persons: —, Tyler Le, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Harris, Alyssa Powell, Marc Rowan, Apollo, Rowan, Natalie Ammari, Scooping, Van Cleef, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Business, Service, UC Berkeley, Fed, Dow, Deloitte, Accenture, Reuters, Apollo Management, Apollo, JPMorgan Locations: Zegna, Bridgewater

☆ Inflation, earnings and AI are the three market drivers we're watching this week
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-06 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Friday's rally on a strong jobs report gained momentum into the close and pushed the stock market into the green for the week. Inflation data: The September consumer price index (CPI) report is out Thursday. The September producer price index (PPI) is out Friday. Jim said last week that investors who don't own AMD shares should buy some ahead of CEO Lisa Su's presentation. ET: Consumer price index 12 p.m.

Persons: we'll, Jim Cramer, Friday's, Matthew Graham, Israel, Joe Biden, Wells, Jim, we're, We're, Morgan Stanley, Lisa Su's, Su, Jim Cramer's, Michael M Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Mortgage News, Mortgage News Daily, CNBC, Devices, PPI, Bank, Nvidia, SOXX Semiconductor, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, DAL, JPMorgan, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty Locations: U.S, Iran, Israel, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, New York City

☆ 'I am getting increasingly queasy': JPMorgan's strategy chief on why investors should dial back risk amid market distortions
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-06 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Yet, as markets eye a soft landing, potential shocks pose a higher risk to investors, David Kelly says. The firm's chief global strategist says the promise of a soft landing has encouraged Americans to pour into riskier assets at the exact time they shouldn't be. "I will say that although I think this is positive for the equity market, I am getting increasingly queasy about the fact that the equity market keeps on pricing in a soft landing," Kelly told Business Insider. He said that as the market prices in a soft landing, valuations rise, which means any shock to the market could send asset prices tumbling. According to Fed data, the total aggregate wealth of American households grew by about $50 trillion in the last five years.

Persons: David Kelly, —, Kelly, shouldn't, you've, payrolls Organizations: Service, Asset, Business, Federal

"We have kind of a two-level house — it's not a two-story, but there are two levels," Smith-Frady told Business Insider. AdvertisementIn May 2024, the average cost of flood insurance in Florida was $781 a year, according to personal-finance company NerdWallet. Advertisement"It basically makes the home a total loss if they don't have flood insurance," Meyer Lucas said. "In Florida, there's really high flood risk, which I think is broadly understood, but that the cost associated with that flood risk is not being captured in home values." "The storms are happening so diversely in so many different areas of the state," D'Amario told Business Insider.

Persons: Helene, —, Hurricane Helene, Alexis Smith, Smith, Frady, Idalia, She's, Katie Mallah, Mallah, Katie Mallah Mallah, it's, Heather Cameron, Cameron, Holly Meyer Lucas, Meyer Lucas, Jon Schneyer, Pete, haven't, Jesse Gourevitch, there's, Ryan D'Amario, D'Amario Organizations: Service, FEMA, Business, Flood Insurance, Hurricanes, Sunshine State, Farmers Insurance, Bankers Insurance, Miami Herald, Capital Economics, Palm, Street Journal, Environmental Defense Fund Locations: Florida, St, Petersburg, Hurricane, Bradenton, North Carolina, Tampa, Sarasota, St . Petersburg, Shore, Shore Acres , Florida, Insurify, Palm Beach, Nature, Appalachia, Gulf

☆ There’s too much negativity about the stock market. Focus on these 3 positives instead
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-06 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

After all of these years, after all of the rather incredible rallies and gains in the stock market from so many groups, the typical morning still starts with a bevy of negativity. We hear about OpenAI and its brilliant $167 billion valuation , but we don't see any stock available to public-market investors. I have been furious at myself for thinking the Chinese government couldn't do anything about the country's struggling stock market. The Chinese stock market has been rallying nicely since the stimulus announcements. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Persons: —, Elon Musk, he's, isn't, Carl Quintanilla, David Tepper, holler, That's, that's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Federal Reserve, Walmart, Fed, SpaceX, Nike, Walgreens, CVS Health, Club, GE Healthcare, Wynn Resorts, Chinese Communist Party, Apple, PDD Holdings, JD.com, Baidu, Diamondback Energy, Exxon Mobil, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: U.S, China, —, New York City

☆ Fed rate cuts should favor preferred stocks, Virtus money manager says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-05 | by ( Krysta Escobar | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

One financial firm is trying to capitalize on preferred stocks – which carry more risks than bonds, but aren't as risky as common stocks. Infrastructure Capital Advisors Founder and CEO Jay Hatfield manages the Virtus InfraCap U.S. Preferred Stock ETF (PFFA) . Since its May 2018 inception, the Virtus InfraCap U.S. Preferred Stock ETF is down almost 9%.

Persons: Jay Hatfield, we're, CNBC's, Hatfield Organizations: Infrastructure Capital, Virtus InfraCap U.S, Preferred Stock ETF, SLM Corporation, Preferred

☆ 4 market experts share 10 places to invest your money after September's jobs data blew expectations out of the water
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-05 | by ( Christine Ji | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Below, four market experts share how investors should allocate their money going forward. The US job market blew past economists' predictions, with total nonfarm payrolls increasing by 254,000 last month — over 100,000 more jobs than expected. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer, Independent Advisor AllianceThe job market is showing signs of strengthening with the September data. With that being said, the current environment presents many opportunities to invest in equities, according to Zaccarelli. "Recession fears are elevated, and we think those are underpriced, underappreciated parts of the market," Zaccarelli said.

Persons: —, we've, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Sonders, there'll, it's, Jeffrey Roach, Roach, Lisa Shalett, Morgan, Shalett, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Investors, Fed, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Independent

☆ Keep buying these top stock picks in October, Morgan Stanley says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-05 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Morgan Stanley is pounding the table on several stocks as investors wait to see if October markets are tumultous or quiet. Morgan Stanley said that even though recent data shows that total cold storage inventory has been down, Lineage still sees plenty of room for growth. Morgan Stanley walked away from Thermo's recent analyst day raving about the stock. Overseas growth, especially in China, remains subdued for now, but Morgan Stanley is optimistic that the latest China stimulus will improve the economic outlook. In addition, Morgan Stanley sees a "significant runway" for higher margins as the Federal Reserve continues its rate-cutting cycle.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Ronald Kamdem, Kamdem, Tejas Savant, Savant, Manan Gosalia, CRE, Gosalia Organizations: T Bank, Taiwan Semiconductor, Tejas, T, Buffalo, MTB, Federal Reserve, Taiwan Locations: U.S, China

☆ Cheap stocks to buy in the fourth quarter, according to HSBC
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-05 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

It's officially a new trading month, and HSBC recommends investors broaden their exposure in the fourth quarter by seeking out stocks with more reasonable valuations. "These 'big' companies represent the lion's share of equity index returns year to date." HSBC has a buy rating on the stock. In all, 16 of the 29 analysts covering GM have a strong buy or buy rating, and its average price target of $54.35 implies nearly 19% upside from Friday's close, per LSEG. The remaining 11 have a buy or strong buy rating.

Persons: It's, Nicole Inui, General Motors, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: HSBC, Dow, Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, General, GM, Pharmaceutical, Pfizer, Delta Air Lines Locations: Americas, U.S

See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 30-Year Mortgage Rates TodayAverage 30-year mortgage rates are hovering near 6%, according to Zillow data. 15-Year Mortgage Rates TodayAverage 15-year mortgage rates are in the low 5% range, according to Zillow data. Average Refinance Mortgage Rates TodayRefinance rates are a bit higher today after dropping in September. Last month, 30-year refinance rates averaged 5.89%, while 15-year refinance rates were around 5.19%.

Persons: they've, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's, refinance Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Labor, Federal Reserve, Zillow, Fed Locations: U.S, Chevron

☆ Falling home prices and fed-up residents show the Texas housing boom is slowing
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

The Texas housing market has cooled after a frenzy of activity during the pandemic. The shift in attitudes is an indicator for the state's housing market, which boomed during the pandemic. Median home prices in Texas have fallen around 7% from their highs in mid-2022, according to data from Redfin. The decline is an outlier compared to the broader US housing market, which is still prices hovering around record highs. But those issues are minor relative to things like economic growth and housing affordability, Fairweather says, which she described as two of the biggest factors that could determine if the Texas housing market picks back up.

Persons: Austin, —, Peter Hoholick, Roe, Wade, Hoholick, it's, James Willoughby, Willoughby, he's, Redfin, William Wheeler, Price, Daryl Fairweather, " Fairweather, Fairweather, they're, Samuel Cobb, couldn't, Cobb, hasn't, We're Organizations: Lone Star, Service, Texas —, Lone Star State, realtors, Texas, Census Bureau, . Texas realtors, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BI Locations: Texas, Austin, California, Dallas, Amarillo, Florida , Texas, LendingTree, Fort Worth, Arlington, East Texas

☆ The jobs number surpassed everyone’s expectations. Cue the complaints about the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-05 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

“Did the Fed even need to cut rates in September, let alone cut by 50bps (basis points)?” Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, wrote in a note on Friday. Second-guessing the Fed isn’t new, of course. Central bank officials themselves note the uncertainty inherent in their work, especially when the economy reaches inflection points. Even Fed officials don’t always agree with the central bank’s actions, such as Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, the lone dissenter to the Fed’s decision to cut rates by half a point in September. ‘This isn’t exact science’Fed officials aren’t shy about admitting that they don’t always have confidence in how the US economy will evolve.

Persons: Washington CNN —, Jerome Powell, Philipp Carlsson, Seema Shah, James Knightley, Powell, don’t, Michelle Bowman, wouldn’t, —, ” Carlsson, Szlezak, “, ” Gina Bolvin Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Boston Consulting, Asset Management, ING, Bolvin Wealth Management Locations: Wall, Washington

☆ 'Inflation is not dead': Consumer prices are still in focus for investors despite the Fed's labor-market pivot
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-05 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The upcoming inflation report will help determine the Fed's next move. Friday's surprisingly strong jobs data has slashed bets of a half-point rate cut. AdvertisementBut with September's jobs report crushing expectations, concerns may have been premature. AdvertisementHow inflation data could compound these forecasts will be known on Thursday, when the CPI report comes out. Still, with inflation still slightly above the central bank's 2% target , some analysts are cautioning investors not to forget about price pressures.

Persons: Friday's, —, it's, they're, Mohamed El, Erian, Brian Rose, Seema Shah Organizations: UBS, Service, US, Bloomberg, CPI, Fed, Bank of America, Barclays

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