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☆ The bar for earnings is low, and stocks should rise as long companies are feeling upbeat about lower rates, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-08 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

As long as companies report that they're feeling good about lower interest rates, stocks should rise. That's according to Bank of America, which notes that apart from that dynamic, the bar for third-quarter earnings set by Wall Street is pretty low. The analysts expect 2% earnings growth, below consensus estimates of 4% and second-quarter earnings growth of 11%. As long as companies have managed through macro headwinds and see early signs of improvement from lower rates, stocks should get rewarded," the analysts said in a Tuesday note. The analysts recommend watching those sectors for early signs of improvement from lower rates ahead of earnings.

Persons: — Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Wall, Federal Reserve, Manufacturing

☆ Good news: The ‘hard landing’ forecasters got it wrong
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

But as we wind down 2024, one thing appears clear: The naysayers on Team Hard Landing got it wrong. The “soft landing” versus “hard landing” metaphor — perhaps overused but visually handy — refers to the economy as an airplane and the Fed as the pilot. Pull the right levers at the right time, and you get a nice comfortable soft landing, with inflation cooling and the labor market thriving. He was far from alone in thinking that a soft landing was little more than a fantasy. “We should just drop the soft landing versus hard landing discourse and start talking about a robust expansion at mid-cycle,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, told Schwab Network in an interview.

Persons: CNN Business ’, everyone’s, ”, Sung Won Sohn, we’d, ” Aaron, “, there’s, Justin Wolfers, Bill Dudley, “ I’ve, Dudley, Larry Summers, they’re, Joe Brusuelas Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Loyola Marymount University, Fed, . Upjohn Institute, Employment Research, ICYMI, Bureau of Labor Statistics —, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Bloomberg, RSM, Schwab Network Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Telegram app hosts ‘underground markets’ for Southeast Asian crime gangs, UN says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

There is “strong evidence of underground data markets moving to Telegram and vendors actively looking to target transnational organized crime groups based in Southeast Asia,” the report said. Southeast Asia has emerged as a major hub for a multibillion-dollar industry that targets victims across the world with fraudulent schemes. Russian-born Durov was arrested in Paris in August and charged with allowing criminal activity on the platform including the spread of sexual images of children. Benedikt Hofmann, UNODC’s deputy representative for Southeast Asia and the Pacific, said the app was an easily navigable environment for criminals. “For consumers, this means their data is at a higher risk of being fed into scams or other criminal activity than ever before,” he told Reuters.

Persons: Pavel Durov, UNODC, Durov, Benedikt Hofmann, UNODC’s, ” Organizations: —, United Nations, United Nations Office, Drugs, Southeast, Reuters, Star Health Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, Southeast Asia, France, Russian, Paris, ”, Asia, South Korea

☆ Schwab's Jeff Kleintop: Labor report means Fed may slow rate cuts, but data tells different story
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSchwab's Jeff Kleintop: Labor report means Fed may slow rate cuts, but data tells different storyJeff Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss what the September jobs report means for the market, how to position, and more.

Persons: Jeff Kleintop, Charles Schwab Organizations: Labor

☆ Watch CNBC’s full interview with Solus' Dan Greenhaus, JPMorgan’s Jordan Jackson and BMO Wealth’s Yung-Yu Ma
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Solus' Dan Greenhaus, JPMorgan’s Jordan Jackson and BMO Wealth’s Yung-Yu MaSolus' Dan Greenhaus, JPMorgan’s Jordan Jackson and BMO Wealth’s Yung-Yu Ma. join 'Power Lunch' to discuss geopolitical tensions, the Fed and the jobs data and what it all means for the market.

Persons: Solus, Dan Greenhaus, JPMorgan’s Jordan Jackson, BMO Wealth’s Yung, Yu Ma Solus, Yu Ma Organizations: BMO, Fed

☆ Banks prefer a less aggressive Fed over the near term, says Baird's David George
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBanks prefer a less aggressive Fed over the near term, says Baird's David GeorgeDavid George, Baird senior research analyst of U.S. banks, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss bank earnings kicking off this week, what the group would like from the Fed going forward, and more.

Persons: Banks, Baird's David George David George, Baird

☆ The September jobs report was really good for the Fed, says Douglas Holtz-Eakin
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe September jobs report was really good for the Fed, says Douglas Holtz-EakinJason Furman, Harvard Kennedy School professor and former CEA chair, and Douglas Holtz-Eakin, American Action Forum president and former CBO director, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the September jobs report, state of the economy, the Fed's inflation fight, and more.

Persons: Douglas Holtz, Jason Furman Organizations: Harvard Kennedy School, CEA, Action

☆ S&P 500 futures are little changed after stocks pull back to start new week: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures were little changed on Monday night, following a losing day on Wall Street as rising oil prices and bond yields weighed on markets. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures each also traded near flat. The Dow finished nearly 400 points lower, while the S&P 500 slid close to 1%. Bond yields and prices move inversely to each other. But energy names climbed alongside the commodity, making it the only sector of the 11 that comprise the S&P 500 to finish Monday in the green.

Persons: Bond, Larry Tentarelli, you've, They'll, Susan Collins, Raphael Bostic Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, Treasury, West Texas, Boston Federal, Atlanta Fed Locations: New York City, East, Iran, Israel

☆ Fed rate cuts would 'undoubtedly' be positive for Southeast Asian markets: Warburg Pincus
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed rate cuts would 'undoubtedly' be positive for Southeast Asian markets: Warburg PincusSaurabh Agarwal, head of Southeast Asia private equity at Warburg Pincus, says "we're very confident and optimistic with the rate cuts … these markets will come back to their 6-7% real GDP growth trajectory in the near term."

Persons: Warburg Pincus Saurabh Agarwal, Warburg Pincus Organizations: Warburg Locations: Asia

☆ Brace for stock-market volatility this week if inflation comes in hot after the September jobs report, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A blockbuster jobs report raises the stakes for upcoming inflation data, BofA analysts say. AdvertisementThe September jobs report was good news, but it gives investors more reason to brace for the next inflation reading, Bank of America analysts say. Economists forecast the CPI report will show inflation continued to cool last month, rising 2.3% year-over-year compared to 2.5% in August. AdvertisementHowever, with the blockbuster September jobs report, some economists say inflation is still a concern. The September jobs report blew past forecasts, with 254,000 nonfarm payrolls added compared to expectations of 150,000.

Persons: —, Brian Rose Organizations: Service, Bank of America, CPI, Fed, UBS

☆ Fed cuts could turn the tide for commercial real estate. Where to find opportunity
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may help turn the tide for commercial real estate. "Lower interest rates are not a magic bullet, but less restrictive monetary policy lays the groundwork for a commercial real estate recovery," wrote senior economist Charlie Dougherty. "Decreased long-term interest rates appear to be easing upward pressure on cap rates and slowing declines in property valuations. "That said, reduced interest rates should prevent distress from spreading and shorten the hurdles coming down the road," he added. Gimple specifically likes single-asset, single-borrower CMBS and commercial real estate collateralized loan obligations.

Persons: Wells Fargo, Charlie Dougherty, Dougherty, Douglas Gimple, Gimple, It's, that's Organizations: Treasury, Companies, Fed Locations: Central, Diamond, Los Angeles, New York, Miami, Hawaii

☆ Yields are rising for the right reasons, says Solus' Dan Greenhaus
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYields are rising for the right reasons, says Solus' Dan GreenhausDan Greenhaus, Solus Alternative Asset, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss geopolitical tensions, the Fed and the jobs data and what it all means for the market.

Persons: Solus, Dan Greenhaus Dan Greenhaus Organizations: Fed

☆ I tried Google's viral new tool that creates an AI podcast about topics you feed it. It's worth the hype.
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Ana Altchek | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The feature uses the information you feed it to create a "deep dive" discussion hosted by two AI hosts. Based on the information you feed it, it generates a "deep dive," podcast-like discussion hosted by two AI hosts. Related storiesTo my surprise, this NotebookLM-generated podcast exceeded anything I'd heard so far in terms of AI voice quality. Like any AI tool though, Audio Overviews isn't perfect. Audio Overviews is probably my favorite AI tool I've tried out so far — and it showcases the innovative ways AI can be used in our daily lives.

Persons: Google's NotebookLM, —, livia M oore, ingle, hough, hatter, ike, oices Organizations: Service Locations: NotebookLM

☆ The job market is in the 'Twilight Zone,' top economist Claudia Sahm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US job market is in a strange quandary, according to Claudia Sahm. The September jobs report was huge, but Sahm said the labor market is still cooling. AdvertisementThe job market is in a weird spot, even after Friday's stunningly strong nonfarm payroll report, Claudia Sahm says. The former Federal Reserve economist and the creator of a highly watched recession indicator pointed to signs that the labor market is cooling, despite September's blowout jobs report. Other forecasters have said the job market remains in uncertain territory, though labor conditions are generally on strong footing.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, Sahm, —, they're Organizations: Employers, Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Challenger, Atlanta Fed

☆ David Roche says misleading 50-basis-point Fed cut will create market instability
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDavid Roche says misleading 50-basis-point Fed cut will create market instabilityDavid Roche, strategist at Quantum Strategy, says the Federal Reserve's initial jumbo cut gives markets the wrong impression that rates will return to rock bottom.

Persons: David Roche Organizations: Quantum

☆ Another 50 basis point Fed cut is off the books after September jobs report, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAnother 50 basis point Fed cut is off the books after September jobs report, strategist saysDave Pierce, director of strategic initiatives at GPS Capital Markets, discusses the market and economic implications of the latest U.S. data sets.

Persons: Dave Pierce Organizations: Capital

☆ 10-year Treasury yield slightly higher following bumper jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher early Monday as investors assessed future moves from the Federal Reserve following Friday's bumper jobs report. The 10-year Treasury yield was up by under a basis point at 3.984%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury was over 3 basis points higher at 3.968%. One basis point equals 0.01%. Treasury yields jumped on Friday as investors digested a better-than-expected September jobs report. The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates that traders are now pricing in an 91% chance of a quarter percentage point rate cut at the central bank's next meeting in November.

Persons: Nonfarm payrolls, Dow Jones, Neel Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Alberto Musalem Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Investors Locations: Israel

☆ BOJ unlikely to hike before January: PineBridge Investments
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBOJ unlikely to hike before January: PineBridge InvestmentsTadashi Matsukawa of Pinebridge Investments says the BOJ is likely still staying tuned to US data and the Fed before it decides on when it will hike rates next year – but he rules out any change in monetary policy in 2024.

Persons: Tadashi Matsukawa Organizations: PineBridge, Pinebridge Investments

☆ The Fed is done cutting rates this year as the 'phantom recession' is finally dead, market vet says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed is done cutting interest rates for the rest of the year, according to Ed Yardeni. Fears of a recession have been almost completely eliminated, the market vet said in a note. The no-show Fed-triggered recession will remain a no-show, especially now that the Fed has started to lower the FFR even though it isn't warranted by the performance of the economy," Yardeni wrote. I think it broadens out from the Magnificent Seven to the S&P 493," Yardeni added, speaking to Bloomberg on Monday. "We're going to have another quarter where I think earnings will go to a record-high in the third quarter."

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, —, landers, they're Organizations: Service, Reserve, Yardeni, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Services, Institution of Supply Management, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Bloomberg, Investor

☆ Markets bet on 25 basis point Fed rate cut in November
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets bet on 25 basis point Fed rate cut in NovemberBianco Research's Jim Bianco and CNBC's Rick Santelli discuss the jobs report, yield curve & the Fed's next move.

Persons: Bianco, Jim Bianco, CNBC's Rick Santelli

☆ Conditions bode well for a soft landing and bull market into year-end: Defiance ETFs' Jablonski
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConditions bode well for a soft landing and bull market into year-end: Defiance ETFs' JablonskiSylvia Jablonski, Defiance ETFs CEO and CIO, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the Fed's interest rate decision, state of the economy, and more.

Persons: Sylvia Jablonski

☆ It's likely the Fed will cut less than people expect, says HPS Investment's Purnima PUri
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's likely the Fed will cut less than people expect, says HPS Investment's Purnima PUriPurnima Puri, HPS Investment Partners governing partner and portfolio manager of public credit strategies, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, the impact on the Fed's interest rate decision, rate path outlook, and more.

Organizations: HPS Investment Partners Locations: PUri

☆ Stock market today: Indexes slip as bond yields jump after strong jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks fell Monday as investors assessed interest rate moves after Friday's strong jobs report. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4% for the first time since late July. Investors will focus on earnings season and the upcoming September CPI report this week. AdvertisementUS stocks dipped to start the week as investors assessed the outlook for interest rates following the strong September jobs report. The September CPI report is also on the economic calendar this week, set to be released on Thursday.

Persons: — Organizations: Treasury, Service, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Investors, PepsiCo, Here's

☆ Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15%
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The bank's economists over the weekend lowered their recession probability to just 15%, which chief economist Jan Hatzius classified as the "unconditional long-term average." September's smashing nonfarm payrolls surge of 254,000 and a downward move in the unemployment rate served as a catalyst for the firm to nearly abandon the chance of a contraction. Prior to the report, traders had been betting that the Fed might repeat its 50 basis point — half percentage point — interest rate cut from September before the end of the year. But expectations have swung now, and Goldman concurs with market pricing that the "next few meetings" will see 25 basis point moves. That's about 1.5 percentage points lower than the current level and 2 full percentage points below the pre-September cut.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Goldman, Lisa Shallett, Morgan Stanley, Shallett Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ Why a key borrowing rate is above 4% again
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

New York CNN —A key borrowing rate for American consumers has jumped to a level not seen in months. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note breached 4% on Monday for the first time since August. The 10-year yield closed at 3.98% on Friday, up from 3.85% on Thursday. The 10-year yield tracks the rate on everything from mortgages to student loans to car loans, leaving consumers looking to borrow for big-ticket purchases with elevated costs. Investors will parse the Consumer Price Index report for September and wholesale inflation figures.

Persons: ”, Karl Schamotta Organizations: New, New York CNN, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Solutions, Fed Locations: New York

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