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Against the dollar, the yen last stood at 151.72 , languishing near a one-year low of 151.92 hit on Monday. A break below last year's trough of 151.94 per dollar would mark a fresh 33-year low for the yen. "I'm inclined to also think that it wasn't a BOJ intervention... It intervened again in October 2022 after the yen plunged to a 32-year low of 151.94. The comments have kept the U.S. dollar bid and against the greenback, the New Zealand dollar fell to an over one-week low of $0.58705.
Persons: Thomas White, Carol Kong, Rodrigo Catril, Jerome Powell, NAB's, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan's, greenback, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of, National Australia Bank, NAB, Ministry of Finance, Federal, U.S, New Zealand, Sterling, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Japan, Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, New York, Bank of Japan, U.S
Nov 15 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Biden and Xi have only met once before, and this is Xi's first visit to the U.S. since 2017. In a separate dinner with business leaders, he will also be looking to boost flagging investment by U.S. firms in China. The latest retail sales, industrial output, investment and unemployment figures for October will give an insight into whether China's economy is maintaining the surprisingly strong momentum it showed in the third quarter. Citi's China economic surprises index has been in positive territory for almost a month, suggesting activity is strengthening or analysts are lowering their expectations.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, Russell, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Biden, Xi, China's Organizations: Tuesday's, Nasdaq, Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, U.S, Tencent Holdings, JD.Com, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tuesday's U.S, Zealand, Asia, San Francisco, China, Japan
Consumer prices held stable in October, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 3.2% from 3.7% a month ago as energy prices receded, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. “Further evidence of disinflation inside the October inflation report,” RSM US Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas posted on social media, noting that month-over-month inflation was flat at 3.2% and core inflation was up 0.2 percent to 4% over the same period. Although prices for a wide variety of goods and services have cooled this year, the current inflation rate is well above the 2% target set by the central bank. “Inflation expectations over the next 5 years dipped to 2.7%, slightly above the Fed’s long-run target of 2%. “We don’t think the last mile of disinflation will be particularly hard,” Goldman Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote in the outlook.
Persons: Joseph Brusuelas, Stocks, Matt Bush, Patrick De Haan, , , Piyush Patel, Jeffrey Roach, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius Organizations: of Labor Statistics, RSM, Federal, Treasury, Dow Industrial, Guggenheim Partners, CNBC, National Retail Foundation, NRF, Affinity Solutions, Wall Street, Travel, Gas, New York Federal Reserve Bank, University of Michigan’s, LPL, Investment, ” Goldman Locations: U.S
[1/3] Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON/NEW YORK, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Global stocks traded cautiously on Monday as the market's focus turned to U.S. inflation data for more clues on whether global interest rates really have peaked. Economists polled by Reuters expect to see headline consumer price inflation in the U.S. slow to 3.3% in October from 3.7% the month before, although the so-called core inflation rate that strips out volatile components is seen unchanged. "But now, the Treasury market has already priced in a pause, so there's not much room for Treasury yields to fall further," removing a support for the stock market. "In short, I don't think the stock market rally is going to continue."
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Naka Matsuzawa, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Naomi Rovnick, Nell Mackenzie, Kevin Buckland, Jacqueline Wong, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Global, Dow, Nasdaq, Barclays, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Nomura Securities, Treasury, Economic Cooperation, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, United States, Asia, San Francisco, Iraq, London, Tokyo
Private-equity firms such as Blackstone are increasingly expanding into private debt. Photo: Jose A. Alvarado Jr. for The Wall Street JournalWall Street’s doom-mongers spent years warning that private lenders would be the next bubble to burst when central banks tightened policy. Instead, the funds are becoming even more ubiquitous as companies scramble to refinance debt in a higher interest-rate environment. The Westport, Conn.-based company operates 450 veterinary clinics and hospitals across the U.S. and has been owned by private-equity giant KKR since 2018. It has been a successful acquisition, but the company is facing a wall of debt maturities that can only be refinanced at higher cost.
Persons: Blackstone, Jose A, Alvarado Jr, mongers Organizations: Wall, Care Centers, The, KKR, Blue Locations: The Westport, Conn
A strong economy, growing population and booming stock market have put India on the map for many investors this year. It can lead to stock market moves, as some investors view it as a new beginning. "We are bullish on India for Samvat 2080," Kotak Securities' analysts wrote in a recent note. Financial services company Bank of India is also on Kotak Securities' buy-rated list following higher profit booking levels. The analysts give the stock a target price range of 120-130 Indian rupees, or upside potential of up to 26%.
Persons: Kotak, Naman Tandon Organizations: Securities, Kotak Securities, Bombay Burmah Trading, Financial, Bank of, Godrej Industries Locations: India, Bank of India
"We're going to start seeing two big waves of growth" in Mexican startups, said Eric Perez-Grovas, co-founder of venture capital fund Wollef, in an interview, adding an earlier slowdown in financing activity was starting to reverse. Mexico's startups are looking to recover after a lackluster year, hit by rising inflation and high interest rates, dampened investment prospects. "The economic outlook is really, really positive, inflation is coming down and employment is steady. Nexu, an auto-financing startup, landed a $20-million investment round last month, adding onto $53 million it had previously raised. Nexu's round was oversubscribed and had buy-in from foreign investors, however, showing market appetite is increasing, said Perez-Grovas.
Persons: Edgard Garrido, Eric Perez, Melonn, Andres Felipe Archila, Perez, Grovas, Abdon Necif, Kylie Madry, Sarah Morland, Rod Nickel Organizations: REUTERS, MEXICO CITY, Mexico's, Wollef, Thomson Locations: MEXICO, Mexico, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDispersion is coming among emerging market central banks, Citi analyst saysLuis Costa, global head of EM sovereign credit at Citi, says dispersion is coming in emerging market monetary policy, offering opportunities for investors.
Persons: Luis Costa Organizations: Citi
If both are calculated in dollar terms, however, Chinese stocks have, by some measures, carried an advantage over the very long term. Many observers say demographics, deleveraging, and de-risking - U.S. firms on-shoring, new supply chains, and trade tensions – will be a considerable long-term drag on Chinese growth. Little wonder, perhaps, that Chinese stocks are so cheap. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsBased on 12-month forward price/earnings multiples, U.S. stocks are twice as expensive as Chinese stocks. For the past 10 years Chinese stocks have been substantially cheaper than U.S. stocks, and most of the decade before that they were usually cheaper too.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Torsten Slok, Janet Yellen, Lifeng, Colin Graham, Graham, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Shanghai, CSI, Reuters, Apollo Global Management, U.S, Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, China, Mexico
A banknote of Japanese yen is seen in this illustration picture taken June 15, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsNov 14 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The policy pressures facing Japanese authorities are intense, and the potential risks to financial markets if policymakers misstep are growing. After battling against deflation for decades, the Bank of Japan is moving away from ultra-loose policy. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Florence Lo, Jamie McGeever, Xi Jinping's, Joe Biden, Shunichi Suzuki, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos, Xi Jinping, Fed's Jefferson, Barr, Mester, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, Economic Cooperation, U.S, Japanese Finance, Bank of, Deutsche Bank's, Mitsubishi UFJ, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, San Francisco, Asia, Bank of Japan, Japan, India
A panel displays the Hang Seng Index during afternoon trading, in Hong Kong, China May 4, 2020. Other economic and policy highlights across the continent this week include preliminary Japanese third-quarter GDP, Indian inflation, and a policy decision from the Philippine central bank on Thursday. Some, like the China and aggregate emerging market indexes, last week fell to their lowest in three months. Perhaps the most interesting of all Goldman's FCIs is its Japanese index. Citi's economic surprises index for Japan turned negative last week and is now the lowest since June.
Persons: Tyrone Siu, Jamie McGeever, Wall, Goldman, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, Nasdaq, Bank of Japan, Mizuho, Mitsubishi UFJ, Sumitomo, Economic Cooperation, China's, Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, Lenovo, APEC, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Hong Kong, China, U.S, Philippine, Asia, Japan, San Francisco, India
Goldman Sachs said the economy and investing landscape is returning to a pre-2008 environment. Conditions are normalizing as the end of ultra low rates ends andNEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. In a note to clients this week titled, "The Hard Part Is Over," Goldman strategists led by Jan Hatzius highlighted that economies around the world have outperformed even optimistic expectations through 2023. Despite their relative optimism, Goldman strategists said they see "higher-than-normal risks" for 2024. Goldman Sachs says its probability-weighted fed funds forecast is below its modal baseline forecast Goldman SachsThere are also downside risks around growth, the bank said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Goldman, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Charles Schwab, Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs, disinflation Organizations: Service, Goldman, Federal Reserve Locations: Europe
U.S. Federal Reserve officials are puzzling over why bond borrowing rates spiked lately even as Fed policy expectations have remained largely unchanged. Whether a resurfacing "term premium'" now demanded to buy and hold longer-term bonds, is responsible is central to the conundrum. Britain's brief budget and debt shock late last year and the way the Bank of England was forced to react was perhaps a taster. "Once current debt has been refinanced and the average interest on debt reflects the higher long rates, absent changes in policy, debt ratios will increase," Blanchard wrote. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reutersby Mike Dolan Editing by Marguerita ChoyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Marcos Brindicci, Olivier Blanchard, Washington's, Blanchard, it's, Morgan Stanley, Mike Dolan, Marguerita Choy Organizations: REUTERS, . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, International Monetary Fund, Washington's Peterson Institute for International Economics, U.S, Congressional, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, United States, Europe
Take Five: That rate cut trade
  + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Markets are keen to trade rate cuts and big central banks are pushing back, shining a new light on upcoming data in that tug of war. Traders, anticipating roughly three quarter-point Fed rate cuts next year, will now turn their attention to Tuesday's inflation data to confirm their view on the outlook. A sharper cooling could fan the peak rate talk, fuelled by October's employment report, which pointed to an easing in labor markets. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics3/ ONCE BITTENThe robust dollar suddenly appears vulnerable to the push and pull in the market's Fed rate cut bets. The data could also help justify, or challenge, recent remarks from BoE chief economist Huw Pill that mid-2024 could be the time for rate cuts.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Danilo Masoni, Alun John, Dhara, Jerome Powell, Ping, Powell, Rishi Sunak, Sunak, BoE, Huw Pill, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Riddhima Talwani, Prinz Magtulis, Jayaram, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Traders, Reuters, Beijing, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, New York, Tokyo, Milan, London, Washington, September's, Germany, Europe, ITALY, Italy
LONDON (AP) — The British economy flatlined in the third quarter of the year, official figures showed Friday ahead of a budget statement from the government later this month. Despite the uninspiring headline figure, the quarterly outcome was slightly ahead of analysts' expectations for a modest decline in output. The British economy, like many others particularly in the world, is struggling to grow in the face of higher interest rates, which are aimed at taming inflation. Higher interest rates — which cool the economy by making it more expensive to borrow, thereby bearing down on spending — have contributed to bringing down inflation worldwide. Treasury chief Jeremy Hunt said a budget statement he will deliver on Nov. 22 will focus on how to “get the economy growing healthily again by unlocking investment.”
Persons: Jeremy Hunt, , Organizations: National Statistics, Bank of England, Bank of, Conservative Party, Treasury Locations: Ukraine
U.S. Federal Reserve officials are puzzling over why bond borrowing rates spiked lately even as Fed policy expectations have remained largely unchanged. Whether a resurfacing "term premium'" now demanded to buy and hold longer-term bonds, is responsible is central to the conundrum. Britain's brief budget and debt shock late last year and the way the Bank of England was forced to react was perhaps a taster. "Once current debt has been refinanced and the average interest on debt reflects the higher long rates, absent changes in policy, debt ratios will increase," Blanchard wrote. US debt costs soarRates minus Growth hits budget mathCBO's long-term debt projectionsDYSFUNCTION AND EXPLOSIONThere were tinges of optimism though.
Persons: Marcos Brindicci, Olivier Blanchard, Washington's, Blanchard, it's, Morgan Stanley, Mike Dolan, Marguerita Choy Organizations: REUTERS, . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, International Monetary Fund, Washington's Peterson Institute for International Economics, U.S, Congressional, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, United States, Europe
Morning Bid: Powell pushback puts cloud 9 beyond reach
  + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell answers a question during a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. Curiously, there was little change in that basic market pricing after Powell spoke - with end-2024 futures still pointing at a rate of 4.50-4.75% versus the current 5.25-5.50%. But the Treasury market did suffer a bigger jolt - as they were also undermined by poor demand at the latest long bond auction. But others pointed to a ransomware attack on the U.S. arm of The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which reportedly disrupted trades in the Treasury market on Thursday. Whatever the main cause, fresh bond market jitters were enough to knock the S&P500 out of its winning streak and close almost 1% lower.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell's pushback, Powell's, Powell, 5bps, Sterling, Janet Yellen, Lorie Logan, Raphael Bostic, Christine Lagarde, Joachim Nagel, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Veterans, Commercial Bank of China, Treasury, University of Michigan, Dallas Federal, Atlanta Fed, European Central Bank, Financial Affairs, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, United States, HK, Washington, Beijing, Atlanta
U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. The Australian dollar fell 0.5% overnight and was last at $0.6405, just above its 50-day moving average. It seems set for its largest weekly fall since June, as the central bank appeared to raise the bar for further hikes after lifting rates on Tuesday. In Asia, China's yuan touched a two-month high in overnight offshore trade. China's consumer prices fell in October, data showed on Thursday, stoking expectations for lower interest rates.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Gabriel Makhlouf, Joachim Nagel, Jane Foley, Mario Draghi, Brent, Ping, Michael Wan, Jerome Powell, Tom Westbrook, Christian Schmollinger Organizations: REUTERS, Central Bank's, Bank of Japan, Rabobank, Treasury, New Zealand, Canadian, Italian, ECB, Financial, Reuters, Ping An Insurance Group, HK, MUFG, Bank of Israel, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Ireland's, U.S, Asia, Europe, Singapore, East, Gaza City
Weak inflation was mainly driven by a steeper decline in food prices. Photo: Raul Ariano/Bloomberg NewsHONG KONG—China slipped back into deflation in October after a brief reprieve, highlighting how hard it is for Beijing to reinvigorate domestic demand in the world’s second-largest economy. In contrast to the U.S. and many advanced economies where taming inflation remains a high priority for central banks, China has struggled to revive inflation through most parts of the year—the latest evidence that a string of stimulus measures so far have failed to boost consumer confidence in the midst of a drawn-out property downturn.
Persons: Raul Ariano Organizations: Bloomberg News HONG Locations: Bloomberg News HONG KONG, China, Beijing
Federal Reserve policymakers will have to hold interest rates higher than they think over the long term, according to Goldman Sachs. Even after the central bank starts cutting, which markets expect to happen in 2024, Goldman economists expect the Fed to have to hold its policy rate higher than it previously had indicated. However, Goldman said a variety of factors are lining up to make both the Fed's target and those of other global central banks unrealistic. Factors pushing policy rates up include high government deficits , investment in AI and carbon emission reductions and productivity increases from generative AI. Moreover, the ability of developed economies to keep growing in the face of higher rates also could diminish the need for cuts.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Market, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Australian, Fed Locations: Canadian
REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 10 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The three main U.S. equity indices quickly sank, and ended between 0.7% and 1% lower on the day. If Asian and emerging stocks follow Wall Street's lead, they will close the week in the red. Sentiment towards China, meanwhile, suffered another blow on Thursday after inflation figures showed that consumer prices swung lower in October. On the political front, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hold talks in San Francisco.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Jamie McGeever, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Lifeng, Janet Yellen, Yellen, Deepa Babington Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Fed, Treasury, Traders, U.S ., Bank of Japan, ., PMI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Tokyo, Japan, China, San Francisco, Zealand, India, Australia
Staff members of Bank of Japan walk between the BOJ headquarters buildings in Tokyo, Japan September 20, 2023. The discussions highlight how the BOJ is looking to exit its decade-long accommodative regime, as prospects of sustained inflation and wage growth heighten. At the Oct. 30-31 meeting, the BOJ kept its ultra-low interest rate targets unchanged but tweaked the yield curve control (YCC) to loosen its grip on long-term interest rates. Another opinion showed how one board member saw prospects of sustainably achieving the BOJ's price target having heightened further since the previous meeting in July. The summary does not disclose the identity of the board member who made the comments.
Persons: Issei Kato, Kazuo Ueda, Leika, Shri Navaratnam, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Bank, Japan, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO
Investors shouldn't expect too many changes in 2024, according to the top investing minds at Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM). GSAM strategists suggested that investors are overlooking the risk that the conflicts cause a sharp slowdown. Higher bond yields usually reflect higher risk since investors demand better compensation for going out on a limb. But it's not just junk bonds that have enticing yields — Wilson-Elizondo said debt for investment-grade firms pays mid-single-digit rates despite boasting robust fundamentals. Sophisticated investors can enhance their returns further with private credit, which Wilson-Elizondo said can offer lofty yields of 11% to 12%.
Persons: they're, Alexandra Wilson, Elizondo, GSAM's, Ashish Shah, Shah, David Rosenberg, Wilson, Michael Bruun, it's, Goldman Sachs, Bruun, " Bruun, — Wilson Organizations: Investors, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Federal Reserve, Consumers, BSE, Nikkei Locations: GSAM, Israel, Ukraine, India, Japan, China
Please refresh the page if you do not see a player above at that time.] Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks Thursday to a monetary policy panel presented by the International Monetary Fund. The U.S. central bank leader's remarks follow a Fed decision last week to hold benchmark policy rates at their current level, in a target range between 5.25%-5.5%. However, Powell has cautioned that should inflation persist, he won't hesitate to push for higher rates. In fact, markets expect the Fed to start cutting in 2024, possibly as soon as June.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Read, Jamie Dimon Organizations: International Monetary Fund, The, Federal, CME, CNBC, YouTube Locations: The U.S, U.S
High inflation could hang around for decades, according to Ken Griffin. The billionaire investor believes the pandemic and conflicts will usher in an era of deglobalization. The Federal Reserve will likely have to keep interest rates high to suppress soaring prices, he added. AdvertisementAdvertisementInflation soared across much of the developed world last year, prompting central banks to start raising interest rates in a bid to tame soaring prices. Griffin predicted that higher interest rates will now become the norm, with policymakers forced to keep borrowing costs elevated to maintain their target inflation rate of about 2%.
Persons: Ken Griffin, , Griffin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Citadel, Bloomberg, Economy, Federal Locations: Europe, deglobalization, Singapore, Ukraine
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