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☆ Here's where Wall Street strategists see the stock market headed next after a brutal September
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Stocks are coming off a brutal two-month stretch, and Wall Street is divided on what comes next. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementThe stock market is coming off back-to-back rocky months, and Wall Street is split on what could be coming next for investors. And Jeff Gundlach, the billionaire founder of DoubleLine Capital, said Tuesday that Treasury yields suggest it's time to start worrying about a severe downturn.

Persons: Stocks, Fundstrat, —, Quincy Krosby, Jay Woods, Woods, jitters, Kevin McCarthy, Gene Goldman, Goldman, Tom Lee, Lee, Marko Kolanovic, Jeff Gundlach Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Freedom Capital, Treasury, Cetera Investment Management, CNBC, DoubleLine

Why are global bond yields rising? With inflation excluding food and energy prices elevated and the U.S. economy resilient, central banks are pushing back against rate cut bets. Many investors were also betting bond yields would drop, so are extra sensitive to moves in the opposite direction, analysts say. That is no surprise, and analysts do not rule out a rise in 10-year Treasury yields to 5%, from 4.7% now . Bond yields determine governments' funding costs, so the longer they stay high, the more they feed into the interest costs countries pay.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, August's, Goldman Sachs, Mahmood Pradhan, Treasuries, Andrea Kiguel, Yoruk, Dhara Ranasinghe, Karin Strohecker, Marc Jones, Amanda Cooper, Ed Osmond Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S . Treasury, August's Fitch, Reuters, Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Amundi Investment, U.S, JPMorgan, Barclays, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Germany, Japan, Italy, Europe, Americas, Amsterdam, London

Despite considerable progress, she said, "inflation continues to be too high, and I expect it will likely be appropriate for the (Fed) to raise rates further and hold them at a restrictive level for some time." The Fed targets 2% inflation. Given that progress, U.S. central bankers last month opted to keep the policy rate in its current 5.25%-5.50% range even as most signaled another rate hike would likely be needed before year's end. Speaking at a separate event in New York on Monday, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said he believes rates are now "at or very near" a sufficiently restrictive level. The same Fed forecasts also show policymakers as a group expect stronger economic growth and a stronger job market than they had expected just three months earlier.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, Ann Saphir, Michael Barr, Barr, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Bowman, Thomas Barkin, we've, Dan Burns, Pete Schroeder, Anna Driver, Andrea Ricci Organizations: U.S . Federal, Hoover Institution, REUTES, . Federal Reserve, Fed, New, New York Fed, Richmond Fed, Thomson Locations: Palo Alto , California, U.S, New York, York , Pennsylvania

A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. Markets have seen some seismic shifts in recent weeks after being forced to adjust to the 'higher for longer' mantra propagated by major central banks. "I don't think we're back to the point where these central banks will start tightening again..but if you are a central banker, especially of an oil importing country, you do become more cautious." On the other hand, a select number of central banks in emerging markets were still in hiking mode. Turkey, which is struggling with inflation pressures and a currency that is sliding from one record low to the next, delivered another bumper 500 bps rate hike.

Persons: Heiko Becker, Bjoern, Kaan Nazli, Neuberger Berman, Karin Strohecker, Sumanta Sen, Christina Fincher Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, ECB, DWS, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Central, America, Europe, Sweden, Norway, Australia, Canada, Japan, Brazil, Chile, Poland, Hungary, Turkey, Russia, Thailand, London, Mumbai

☆ Fiscal excess, the power of Main Street, and US 'debasement': Here are the themes BofA says will dominate markets for the rest of this decade
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Central banks around the world are raising interest rates up from 5,000-year lows, and that's ushering in the end of abnormally high returns for stocks and bonds. In the prior decade, deflation assets like bonds and tech gained about 10%, while inflation assets such as cash, commodities, and value gained 6%. Central bank policyThe backdrop to all this has been the actions taken by global central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve. But as with other dominant themes of the 2010s, the monetary excess of central bankers is set to be replaced. The combination of central banks' monetary excess and governments' fiscal excess of the last three years has pushed nominal US GDP 40% higher since its pandemic low in the fourth quarter of 2020.

Persons: —, BofA, It's Organizations: Bank of America, Service, European Union, St, Bank of America US, US Federal Reserve Locations: Ukraine, Central

☆ Fed doves, Fed hawks: US central bankers in their own words
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The following chart offers a stab at how officials stack up on their outlook for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.5%, was in July. Neither Jeff Schmid, Kansas City Fed's president since August and a voter in 2025, nor Adriana Kugler, a permanent voter who was confirmed to the Fed Board in September, have yet made any substantive policy remarks. The St. Louis Fed has begun a search to succeed president, James Bullard, who took a job in academia; the new chief will be a 2025 voter.

Persons: Jeff Schmid, Adriana Kugler, Louis Fed, James Bullard, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal, Federal Open Market, New York Fed, Jeff Schmid , Kansas City Fed's, Fed, Thomson Locations: Jeff Schmid , Kansas, St

☆ Top money managers are warning of pain ahead for the US economy. Here are 6 areas where they're investing right now to prepare.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

"There is a subset that simply cannot do that," she said of paying down credit card debt going forward as rates rise. "In those tails and subsets I think you're going to have really unusual delinquencies, and just horrible recovery rates." You're going to see defaults increase." Delaney also emphasized being defensive, and said he likes corporate bonds, but those with floating rates, meaning they move with the market rate. The iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH) is one way to gain exposure to long-term government bonds.

Persons: Dawn Fitzpatrick, Katie Koch, haven't, it's, Mark Delaney, Suni Harford, I'd, Brad Gerstner, Jerome Powell, Volcker, Koch, —, We're, Rick Rieder, he's, Delaney, Fitzpatrick Organizations: CNBC's, Alpha, Federal Reserve, Soros Fund Management, TCW, UBS, Management, BlackRock, JPMorgan, Corporate, Treasury Bond ETF, Vanguard Energy, DB Oil Fund Locations: Europe, Saudi Arabia

☆ The Fed is throwing 'kerosene on the fire' and needs to end rate hikes as inflation is probably already at 2%, billionaire real estate mogul Barry Sternlicht says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed's rate hikes are the equivalent of throwing "kerosene on the fire," Barry Sternlicht said. The real estate mogul has been a loud critic of the Fed policy. High interest rates mean the US is bound to enter a slowdown, he warned in a recent interview. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Central bankers raised interest rates aggressively in the last 18 months to lower inflation.

Persons: Barry Sternlicht, —, Sternlicht, Powell Organizations: Service, Reserve, Starwood Capital Group, Fed, CNBC Locations: United States

☆ The U.S. is nearing a government shutdown. What that means for stocks and how we're playing it
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The U.S. is just days from a federal government shutdown at 12:01 a.m. Goldman Sachs put the chances of a shutdown at 90%, saying it could last around two to three weeks. "In the seemingly unlikely event Congress passes a short-term extension, we would still expect a shutdown sometime later in Q4," which begins on Monday. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Raymond James, Ed Mills, Jim Cramer, Jerome Powell, What's, Moody's, It's, Goldman Sachs, we've, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Brendan SMIALOWSKI, BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI, Brendan Smialowski Organizations: Capitol, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Chrysler, Ford, Reserve, Fed, Social Security, AAA, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Republican, Getty, Afp Locations: Central, U.S, Washington ,, AFP

"I'm one of those folks," said Kashkari, who is considered one of the Fed's more hawkish policymakers. Kashkari said that if inflation cools next year as expected, the Fed will need to cut rates to keep policy from tightening too much. But he also said he has been surprised by how well consumer spending has held up despite the Fed's rate hikes so far. "Everybody on the Federal Open Market Committee is committed" to bringing inflation back down to the Fed's 2% target, he said. Inflation by the Fed's preferred measure was 3.3% in July.

Persons: Neel Kashkari, Mike Segar, Kashkari, Ann Saphir, Himani Sarkar, Muralikumar Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Reuters, REUTERS, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, Wharton School of Business, Fed, U.S, Federal, Thomson Locations: New York City , New York, U.S, Minneapolis

The Treasury will issue new economic targets on Wednesday providing the framework for a budget in which Meloni will attempt to keep her tax-cutting promises while also lowering the fiscal deficit. "This budget is Meloni's first real economic test since she came to power last October," said Tim Jones, euro zone analyst for market consultancy firm Medley Advisors. Meloni has much less room for manoeuvre than when she hiked deficit targets in her first budget a year ago. Episodes targeting airlines and investors in Italy's 307- billion-euro ($326.74 billion) bad loan market have followed a similar pattern. Meloni subsequently said no measures were planned regarding non-performing loans, but her party's proposal is still before parliament and uncertainty persists.

Persons: Giorgia Meloni, Meloni, Tim Jones, she's, Morgan Stanley, Reuters.G Rome, Roberto Perotti, Meloni's, Valentina Za, Francesco Canepa, Giuseppe Fonte, Sara Rossi, Gianluca Semeraro, Ed Osmond, Giselda Organizations: Treasury, Advisors, European Central Bank, Reuters, Ryanair, Milan's, Bank of, ECB, Thomson Locations: ROME, Italy, Greece, Rome, Italian, Italy's, Brussels, EU, Milan

Retail fuel prices in the U.S. and Europe have risen to multi-month highs as crude prices have rallied. "If energy prices increase and stay high, that'll have an effect on spending, and it may have an effect on consumer expectations for inflation, things like that. High interest rates are already curbing demand across Western economies, including for oil. The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday pressed pause on interest rates, but did not rule out one more hike this year. President Joe Biden has already promised to cut prices, though has not said how, and in the short term the impact of autumn refinery maintenance on supplies could keep prices high.

Persons: Mike Segar, Brent, Jerome Powell, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, PVM's Tamas Varga, I'm, Craig Erlam, Ajay Parmar, Joe Biden, Gordon Balmer, Natalie Grover, Robert Harvey, Mark John, Balazs Koranyi, Dan Burns, Simon Webb, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Exxon, REUTERS, . West Texas Intermediate, Reuters, Retail, Federal, International Energy Agency, Organization of, Petroleum, U.S . Federal Reserve, HSBC, Energy Information Administration, U.S, Diesel, Energy, Petrol Retailers, Thomson Locations: Edgewater , New Jersey, U.S, OPEC, Europe, Brazil, Guyana, United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, Britain, France, London, Frankfurt, New York

☆ The way I'm thinking about stocks makes them winners no matter what the Fed or bonds do
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-24 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +14 min

After the September meeting pause last week, the target range for the fed funds rate remained at 5.25% to 5.50%. First, I don't know a soul besides me who agrees with that 20-year versus fed funds rate yield prognosis. They think the fed funds rate will come down or the 20-year yield is already extended. Second, I don't know anyone else who believes the economy is so strong that the Fed is correct to keep on an anti-inflation course. I don't think so.

Persons: We've, Jerome Powell, Powell, It's, —, that's, — let's, it's, Bob Iger, Charlie Scharf, there's, Einstein, Salesforce, Elliott, Bill Newlands, Constellation, William Giles, Giles, Bud, Tom Jorden, Coterra, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Angela Weiss Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Treasury, Apple, Club, Disney, Hulu, CNBC, Comcast, DIS, ABC, ESPN, Nexstar Media, YouTube, Apple's, Wells, Constellation Brands, Constellation, Elliott Management, Autozone, San, Coterra Energy, & Gas, Ford, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, AFP, Getty Locations: U.S, New Jersey, Gary's, Madison —, Wells Fargo, Wells, What's, slowdowns, Texas, San Miguel, Brooklyn , New York, AMZN, CTRA

☆ 'Shark Tank' investor Kevin O'Leary warns of more pain coming for the economy as the Fed is poised to hike rates higher and as oil prices keep rising
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed will likely spark more pain for the US economy, according to "Shark Tank" star Kevin O'Leary. He predicted the Fed will push interest rates to 6% in a bid to lower inflation. Central bankers have raised interest rates aggressively over the past 18 months to control inflation, with rates now at their highest level since 2001. Oil prices have stuck close to a 10-month high, with Brent crude the international benchmark, trading around $94 a barrel on Friday while West Texas Intermediate crude traded around $91 a barrel..O'Leary blamed high oil prices on a systemic shortage of crude production. Forecasters have warned that oil prices could go even higher through the end of the year as supply cuts from producers in OPEC+ could deepen.

Persons: Kevin O'Leary, O'Leary, Brent Organizations: Service, Federal, Fox Business, of Labor Statistics, West Texas Intermediate Locations: Wall, Silicon, OPEC

☆ Global central banks unite in "higher for longer" credo
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The so-called "higher for longer" mantra is now the official stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of England, as well as being echoed by monetary policy-makers from Oslo to Tapei. U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers had a similar message on Wednesday. Turkey's central bank confirmed its hawkish turn while in Asia, Taiwan's central bank flagged continued tight policy. Reuters Graphics"TIPPING POINT"Belgian central bank chief and ECB board member Pierre Wunsch - an early voice urging tougher central bank action to counter inflation from end-2021 - said on Thursday that monetary policy was now at the right level. That said, the prospect that global interest rates are pretty close to peak will be of huge relief to emerging economies suffering from heavy debt servicing loads.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Ann, BoE, Andrew Bailey, Pierre Wunsch, Wunsch, COVID lockdowns, Jerome, Powell, Krishna Guha, Howard Schneider, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Kansas City Federal, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, U.S . Federal, Swiss National Bank, South African Reserve Bank, People's Bank of, Reuters, ECB, Reuters Global Markets, Economics, Sterling, Swiss, United, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Central, Oslo, Tapei, Europe, Norway, Sweden, Asia, People's Bank of China, Belgian, United States, Ukraine, Washington, Frankfurt, London, Stockholm, Zurich, Ankara

The meeting was scheduled for hours after Zelenskiy addressed the United Nations Security Council about Russia's invasion and its consequences. Ukraine has tried to lock in financial support from business leaders to help rebuild the country. A spokesperson for Zelenskiy and Ukraine's mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Since the start of the war, Ackman's foundation has donated roughly $24 million to support Ukraine, a person familiar with the numbers said. Before the meeting in New York, the White House appealed to Congress to approve billions of additional dollars of support for Ukraine.

Persons: Ken Griffin, Mike Blake, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Zelenskiy, JPMorgan Chase, Bill Ackman, Jonathan Gray, Robert Kraft, Henry Kissinger, Eric Schmidt, Mike Bloomberg, Barry Sternlicht, Mary Callahan Erdoes, Vince LaPadula, Whitney Tilson, Griffin, Howard Buffett, Warren, Svea Herbst, Bayliss, Lananh Nguyen, Andrea Shalal, Michelle Nichols, Megan Davies, Grant McCool Organizations: Citadel, Milken, Global Conference, REUTERS, United Nations Security Council, JPMorgan, Blackstone Group, New England Patriots football team, United, State, Google, United Nations, Griffin's Citadel, Ackman's Pershing, Capital Management, Ukraine, Fox News, Svea, Thomson Locations: Beverly Hills , California, U.S, New York, Ukraine, United States

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Try to see the bright side of higher-for-longer rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineAs expected, the Federal Reserve declined to increase interest rates. In June, the Federal Open Market Committee forecast four rate cuts next year, totaling one percentage point. Despite the prognostications of robust economic growth, markets focused on the "higher rates for longer" part of the dot plot, seeing the glass as half empty.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Chip Somodevilla, That's, Powell, we'll, —, Jeff Cox, Yun Li Organizations: Federal Reserve, Getty, CNBC, Federal, Fed, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq Locations: Washington ,, U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Try to look on the bright side of higher-for-longer rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

☆ Central bank interest rates: Is the global fight to tame inflation nearly over?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

London CNN —Central bankers have had to climb a metaphoric mountain over the past two years in the battle to control runaway inflation. The announcement came just hours after Switzerland’s central bank kept rates unchanged and a day after the US Federal Reserve did the same, holding its key lending rate in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. “Central banks think they have raised interest rates enough to bring inflation down to their 2% targets in a couple of years’ time,” Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, told CNN. Key interest rates are now at levels that, if “maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution” to reducing inflation to its 2% target, the central bank said. “By this time next year, we anticipate that 21 out of the world’s 30 major central banks will be cutting interest rates.”

Persons: ” Paul Dales, “, Jerome Powell, Sarah Silbiger, Brent, Andrew Bailey, ” Seema Shah, ”, J.P, Morgan, Jennifer McKeown Organizations: London CNN —, Bank of England, US Federal Reserve, Capital Economics, CNN, European Central Bank, ECB, Federal, Washington DC, Bloomberg, Getty, European Union, EU, European Commission, Asset Management, “ Locations: United Kingdom, United States, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Russia

☆ Fed policymakers see 5.1% policy rate at end of 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

That's according to the median of 19 forecasts included in the latest quarterly summary of Federal Reserve policymaker projections published on Wednesday, alongside the Fed's decision to leave its policy rate unchanged in a range of 5.25%-5.50%. Fed officials now see the personal consumption expenditures price index at 3.3% at year end, versus June's forecast of 3.2%, falling to 2.5% by the end of next year, compared with 2.5% seen in June. Fed officials expect further reductions in the policy rate as well, to 3.9% by the end of 2025 - above the 3.4% they projected in June - and to 2.9% by the end of 2026. That would still be above the 2.5% they continue to see as the long-run neutral policy rate - the level of borrowing costs that neither slows nor stimulates a healthy economy. Meanwhile the unemployment rate - which is currently at 3.8% - is seen peaking at 4.1% in 2024 - and remaining there for 2025 - versus the 4.5% high-water mark seen in June.

Persons: Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Fed, Thomson

PinnedFederal Reserve officials are expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their meeting on Wednesday, buying themselves more time to assess whether borrowing costs are high enough to weigh down the economy and wrestle inflation under control. Central bankers have already raised interest rates to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent, the highest level in 22 years. At least a few officials might stop expecting another quarter-point rate move this year, predicting instead that interest rates have already reached their peak. If, on the other hand, officials expect to lower rates by less in 2024, it could be a signal that policymakers expect inflation to prove more stubborn. Fed officials will release fresh economic forecasts.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, ”, Antúlio Bomfim, Powell’s, “, William English Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Trust Asset Management, United Auto Workers, Yale Locations: America, Panama

☆ What to Watch at the Fed’s September Meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials are expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their meeting on Wednesday, buying themselves more time to assess whether borrowing costs are high enough to weigh down the economy and wrestle inflation under control. But investors are likely to focus less on what policymakers do on Wednesday and more on what they say about the future. Wall Street will closely watch whether Fed policymakers still expect to make another interest rate increase before the end of the year, or whether they are edging closer to the next phase in their fight against rapid inflation. Central bankers have already raised interest rates to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent, the highest level in 22 years. Officials predicted in their last quarterly economic forecast, released in June, that they were likely to make one more rate increase before the end of 2023.

Organizations: Federal

☆ High oil prices don't make Europe energy stocks attractive to all
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Lucy Raitano | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The STOXX 600 European oil and gas index (.SXEP) is at its highest since mid-February, having gained around 13.5% in the past two months. In the same period, benchmark Brent crude has risen 18% and European natural gas prices have gained 50%. He said higher oil prices could prompt upgrades to earnings estimates, and potentially dividends too. "The whole energy sector should benefit, but the downstream sector is looking very cheap and offers a high dividend which is attractive given higher interest rates," said Cau. Bank of America strategists have an underweight rating on European energy stocks.

Persons: Heinz, Peter Bader, Brent, Mislav Matejka, Morgan Stanley, Emmanuel Cau, Andreas Bruckner, Lucy Raitano, Amanda Cooper, Miral Organizations: REUTERS, Brent, Reuters, JPMorgan, Barclays, Bank of America, Thomson Locations: Zistersdorf, Austria, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China

☆ U.K. Inflation Rate Slips Lower for Third Straight Month
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Eshe Nelson | More About Eshe Nelson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

Deeper Into the Numbers: Core inflation slowed faster than expected. A key gauge of domestic price pressures is core inflation, which strips out energy and food costs. Last month, the annual rate of core inflation fell to 6.2 percent, from 6.9 percent in July, a faster decline than economists predicted. Rising energy prices pushed up inflation in the United States last month and added to inflation pressures in other European countries. Wednesday’s inflation data was lower than the central bank forecast last month, a positive surprise, that is likely to increase expectations that the bank will pause this week.

Persons: Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt Organizations: Government, Bank of England Locations: Britain, United States

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady Wednesday, but the central bankers will give an update on their economic outlook with the summary of economic projections, which includes one key chart that traders will have an eye on. The so-called "dot plot" that charts the projected move in the Fed funds rate and the press conference of Chair Powell will give investors a clue as to what happens in the November meeting and into 2024. "I think that they will keep that bias towards higher rates in there and indicate that they are willing to raise the funds rate further if the data start to show that either inflation is not slowing as they expect it to, or if the labor market remains too tight," said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group. Read more about the meeting here. — Jeff Cox, Jesse Pound

Persons: Powell, Gus Faucher, Read, — Jeff Cox, Jesse Pound Organizations: Federal Reserve, PNC Financial Services

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