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The S&P 500 is priced for perfection and could plunge 25% if problems crop up, Mike Wilson says. Morgan Stanley's stock chief says the outlook for company earnings and the economy is pretty grim. The benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite have rallied 17% and 33% respectively this year. He suggested a shock to the system of that kind could send the S&P 500 plummeting from nearly 4,500 points today to the low 3,000s — a drop of more than 25%. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn short, Wilson sees very limited upside and material downside to investing in the S&P 500 today.
Persons: Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's, Wilson, Rosenberg, Morgan, China's, Sharp, aren't Organizations: Big Tech, Service, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Wall, Bank of, Nvidia, Microsoft Locations: Wall, Silicon, Bank of Japan
Prosecutors have issued a new deadline — Sept. 18 — for four detainees at the American military prison at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, to show their willingness to plead guilty to plotting the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and receive a maximum punishment of life in prison. The fifth defendant in the case has been found incompetent to stand trial and is likely to be removed from the case. Without a challenge, the judge is expected to sever him from the case when hearings resume next week after a 22-month hiatus. They describe the deadline as driven by the scheduled Oct. 7 departure of the current overseer of the case, Jeffrey D. Wood. In March 2022, Mr. Wood authorized prosecutors to pursue guilty pleas that would spare the defendants a capital trial to resolve the long-running case.
Persons: Ramzi bin al, Prosecutors, Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, Jeffrey D, Wood Organizations: Mr Locations: Guantánamo Bay, Cuba
September is historically considered the worst month of the year for stocks, in what is known as the "September Effect." But this year, market experts appear divided over whether US equities will repeat the pattern or defy it. AdvertisementAdvertisementEd Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research"On Sunday, we observed that September is a good month for picking apples. Among things that could go wrong for investors this month, Yardeni highlighted rising oil prices, inflation risks, and China's faltering economy. David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg ResearchIn contrast, top economist Rosenberg has long-warned about a looming crash in in stocks.
Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, it's, Santa Claus, Tom Lee, Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Lee, we're, Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, Jeremy Siegel, Wharton, Siegel, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, CFRA Research, Yardeni, Investor, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, " Bank of America, Fed, Rosenberg Research Locations: Wall, Silicon, Septembers, Santa
[1/6] Protesters display a large banner as they take part in a demonstration against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his nationalist coalition government's judicial overhaul, in Tel Aviv, Israel September 9, 2023. REUTERS/Ilan Rosenberg Acquire Licensing RightsJERUSALEM, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Tens of thousands of Israelis protested in cities across the country on Saturday ahead of a key decision by the Supreme Court over legislation passed by the coalition which stripped the court of some of its oversight powers. Proponents say the judicial overhaul plans would restore balance to the branches of authority but critics say it removes vital checks on government powers. "I am demonstrating for Israel democracy," protester Nattie Schwartz-Kershberg said in Tel Aviv. The overhaul plans have sparked weekly nationwide protests but the latest demonstrations held special significance as they came before the Supreme Court, for the first time in Israeli history, convenes its entire 15-judge bench on Sept. 12 to hear an appeal against the amendment.
Persons: Benjamin Netanyahu, Ilan Rosenberg, Benjamin Netanyahu's, Nattie Schwartz, Kershberg, Emily Rose, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Israeli, REUTERS, Rights, Israel, Thomson Locations: Tel Aviv, Israel
Workers assemble a string of buoys, to deter migrants from crossing the Rio Grande river, at the international border with Mexico in Eagle Pass, Texas, U.S. July 27, 2023. REUTERS/Adrees Latif Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Sept 7 (Reuters) - A U.S. Appeals Court on Thursday granted a temporary stay allowing Texas to keep in place floating buoys installed in the middle of the Rio Grande to block migrants from illegally crossing the U.S.-Mexico border as court proceedings move forward, a court filing showed. A U.S. judge had ordered Texas on Wednesday to move the floating buoys in what was seen as a tentative win for President Joe Biden, whose administration sued the state. Although that order was not meant to take effect until Sept. 15, Thursday's ruling could prevent Texas from having to take immediate steps to start moving the barriers to the embankment. Reporting by Ted Hesson and Kanishka Singh; editing by Mica Rosenberg and Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Adrees Latif, Joe Biden, Thursday's, Greg Abbott, Ted Hesson, Kanishka Singh, Mica Rosenberg, Leslie Adler Organizations: Workers, REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Appeals, Texas, Thomson Locations: Rio, Mexico, Eagle Pass , Texas, U.S, Texas
Insider Today: Gen Z is out on college
  + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +9 min
This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter. In today's big story, we're looking at why college isn't part of the plan for some Gen Zers. Between skyrocketing tuition costs and underwhelming salaries, some Gen Zers are skipping college altogether, writes Charlotte Lytton. A recent survey found that 40% of business leaders think recent Gen Z college grads are unprepared when they enter the workforce. The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, senior editor and anchor, in New York City.
Persons: Dan DeFrancesco, weren't, Zers, Chelsea Jia Feng, Zers aren't, Charlotte Lytton, It's, Alix Earle, NFTs, TikTok hasn't, Earle, Alix Earle's TikToks, @alixearle, Spencer Platt, Goldman Sachs, we've, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Kevin Dietsch, Marc Benioff, they're begrudgingly, Arantza Pena Popo, Corizon, Sen, Elizabeth Warren, James Webb, Stephen King, Holly Gibner, Rice, Naga Siu, Hallam Bullock, Lisa Ryan Organizations: Service, Electric, Wall, Tech, University of Miami, Getty, JPMorgan, Amazon, James, James Webb Telescope, Hubble, NASA, ESA, CSA, Costco, Kirkland Locations: Wall, Silicon, NFTs, Blackstone, Bridgewater, Seoul, New York City, San Diego, London, New York
ROSENBERG, Texas (AP) — A Texas police chief said Tuesday that wet roads and speed factored into the driver of an SUV plowing into a Denny's restaurant outside Houston on Labor Day, injuring nearly two dozen people inside. No charges against the driver have been filed but the crash remains under investigation, Rosenberg Police Chief Jonathan White said. Video of the aftermath showed a red vehicle fully inside the restaurant, with the wall and windows around it demolished. White said the traffic investigators are considering all factors, including the speed the vehicle was going and “freshly wet road” conditions. Political Cartoons View All 1145 ImagesThe driver, who authorities have not identified, was not injured in the crash.
Persons: ROSENBERG, , Jonathan White, ” White, White Organizations: Texas, Labor, Rosenberg Police, Authorities Locations: Texas, Houston
Top economist David Rosenberg expects a US recession to hit within 6 months. The Fed's 11 interest rate hikes amount to one of the most aggressive tightening campaigns ever, and to the economist, that doesn't bode well for the coming months. "We've had the biggest interest rate shock since 1981, if I'm not mistaken. "Most of these recessions [since World War II] were not caused by a fiscal shock, but interest rate shocks. "We've had a massive interest rate shock, we haven't seen the full impact yet.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Blockworks, Blockwork's Jack Farley, doesn't bode, We've, I'm, impact's, we're, it's Organizations: Morning, Rosenberg Research, Associates, Fed Locations: China, Federal, happenstance
Fidelity International's Salman Ahmed is predicting a recession on the back of high interest rates, per Bloomberg. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe increased cost of borrowing due to higher interest rates means companies may not be able to invest in growth. Consumer spending also typically falls when interest rates rise. By the end of 2008, its benchmark interest rate — the Fed Funds Rate was close to 0%. The Fed has been hiking interest rates relentlessly since March 2022 to combat red-hot inflation as the pandemic receded.
Persons: Salman Ahmed, Ahmed, Fidelity's Ahmed —, , Ahmed isn't, David Rosenberg Organizations: Fidelity, Bloomberg, Service, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon
In comparison the job market has been, as I said, relatively strong. Pascal Michaillat, an economist at the University of California, Santa Cruz, likes to measure the tightness of the job market by comparing the number of job vacancies with the number of unemployed people. The labor market is efficient, he contends, when the numbers are equal — that is, when the ratio of vacancies to unemployed is exactly 1. One scenario is that the labor market remains tight for longer than it would otherwise, but eventually cracks. In fact, there are already some signs of cracking in the labor market.
Persons: payrolls, Pascal Michaillat, , David Rosenberg Organizations: Economic, of Labor Statistics, University of California, Rosenberg Research Locations: Santa Cruz, Toronto
The US looks likely to tip into a recession in about six months, according to David Rosenberg. The top economist warned that the deterioration of credit quality is reminiscent of 2008's mortgage crisis. "I think that if we escape this little recession, it'll be a miracle," he told Blockworks' Forward Guidance. "Every penny of the stimulus checks got spent." "We just replaced credit cards with what happened with subprime mortgages 15 years ago," Rosenberg said.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Blockworks, We've, I'm, impact's, there's, Morgan Stanley, Seth Carpenter, we'll, Banks, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Associates, Federal, Bank of America Locations: Wall, Silicon
Macro equation setting up for recession, warns David Rosenberg
  + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMacro equation setting up for recession, warns David RosenbergDavid Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research, joins 'Fast Money' to talk the U.S. economy, the impact of interest rates, slowing employment growth and more.
Persons: David Rosenberg David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Organizations: Rosenberg Research
Online banks are the future of bankingA recent survey found that Americans of all ages are open to banking with an online-only bank. The survey, by Finder, found that about 30% of Americans already bank online or plan to make the switch. AdvertisementAdvertisementWhile you can't go to a bank branch for cash, online banks do issue debit cards. You can do almost everything with online bankingOutside of depositing cash, online banks can do just about anything traditional banks can. AdvertisementAdvertisementIf you've been debating making the switch, think about how often you really need to go to a bank branch for help.
Persons: I've Organizations: Service, Mobile Locations: Wall, Silicon, United States
Record numbers of migrants have crossed the U.S.-Mexico border illegally since President Joe Biden, a Democrat, took office in 2021, including many from distant nations. Of the nearly 2 million migrants encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border between October 2022 and July 2023, 216 were on U.S. watchlists for potential links to terrorism, according to U.S. government statistics. U.S. authorities have no indication that migrants aided by the smuggling network were tied to extremist groups or plotting terrorist attacks, Watson said. Watson did not confirm links to the Islamic State specifically or that the smuggler was based in Turkey. U.S. Customs and Border Protection encountered some 3,200 Uzbeks at U.S borders in fiscal year 2022, up from fewer than 700 a year earlier.
Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Donald Trump, Adrienne Watson, Watson, Ted Hesson, Humeyra Pamuk, Mica Rosenberg, Lizbeth Diaz, Mary Milliken, Andy Sullivan Organizations: Texas Army National Guard, U.S, CNN, Democrat, Republicans, Republican, White, National Security, Migrants, FBI, . Customs, Protection, Thomson Locations: Rio, Eagle Pass , Texas, U.S, Mexico, WASHINGTON, Turkey, State, United States, Washington, New York, Mexico City
For Migrating Birds, It’s the Flight of Their Lives
  + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Emily Anthes | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +17 min
Simone NoronhaFor Migrating Birds, It’s the Flight of Their Lives Leer en españolAmerica’s birds are in trouble. If migrating birds lose their winter refuges, the consequences will ripple across the hemisphere. MissouriMissouri provides breeding habitats for many grassland bird species, which have been faring especially poorly in recent decades. “This is a classic Pacific Northwest to west Mexico species,” Mr. Jiang said. The birds breed at marshes and wetlands across the Western United States and Canada.
Persons: Simone Noronha, , , Viviana Ruiz, Gutierrez, Jeremy Radachowsky, Ken Rosenberg, Deb Hahn, Hahn, Anna Lello, Smith, Sarah Kendrick, Nick Bayly, That’s, Andrew Stillman, Archie Jiang, Mr, Jiang, Dr, Stillman, Camila Gómez, ” Dr, Ruiz Organizations: Center, Avian, Cornell, of Ornithology, Wildlife Conservation Society, Partners, New, New York Metro Area, UNITED STATES, BERMUDA BAHAMAS MEXICO Maya, PERU Moderate, Forest, Association of Fish & Wildlife Agencies, Southern Wings, The, Central, Mesoamerican Alliance for People, Forests Initiative, Forests Initiative . Missouri, CANADA UNITED STATES, BERMUDA CUBA MEXICO VENEZUELA COSTA RICA BRAZIL, U.S . Fish, Wildlife Service, Missouri Department of Conservation, Colorado Colorado, CANADA, ARGENTINA CANADA Colo, U.S, Bird Conservancy, Rockies, , Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability, UNITED STATES Calif, Western Locations: North America, United States, Canada, Costa Rican, Caribbean, U.S, eBird, New York, BERMUDA BAHAMAS MEXICO, BRAZIL, PERU, CHILE, ARGENTINA, PERU Moderate CHILE, Forest BRAZIL, CHILE ARGENTINA, Forest BRAZIL PERU, New York City, Bahamas, The New York, Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, Central America, Central American, Forests Initiative ., Forests Initiative . Missouri Missouri, South America, BERMUDA MEXICO VENEZUELA COSTA RICA, Missouri, BERMUDA MEXICO VENEZUELA COSTA RICA BRAZIL, BERMUDA CUBA MEXICO VENEZUELA COSTA RICA, BERMUDA CUBA MEXICO VENEZUELA COSTA RICA BRAZIL PERU, Venezuela, Argentina, Cuba, Central, South, SELVA, Colombia, Costa Rica, Plains, UNITED STATES MEXICO ECUADOR, Colorado, UNITED STATES Colo, MEXICO ECUADOR BRAZIL, Northern Mexico, Texas, California, West Coast, Alaska, Pacific, MEXICO, URUGUAY ARGENTINA Alaska, Salt, CHILE URUGUAY ARGENTINA Alaska, BRAZIL PERU BOLIVIA, URUGUAY ARGENTINA, Sierra Nevada, Chile, Western United States
Stocks are set to slump and many Americans are "prisoners in their own homes," David Rosenberg says. Rising rates have driven up mortgage costs, deterring many sellers, the economist says. The Rosenberg Research president laid out several reasons why he believes asset prices have soared to unsustainable highs. The central bank might keep forging ahead with further hikes to interest rates as a result, turning the screw on the stock market and the economy, he said. He underlined the Fed's decision to cut interest rates to almost zero in 2020 and 2021, which allowed homeowners to lock in long-term mortgages at rates of 2% to 3%.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Cash, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Rosenberg, North, Fed, New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq Locations: Wall, Silicon, North American
A trial date in a fourth criminal case has not yet been set. Trump's lawyers had pressed for an April 2026 trial date, but Chutkan said they did not need that long to prepare. Trump will have to make the trial date work, regardless of his schedule," Chutkan said. A trial date for the fourth criminal case in Georgia has not yet been set. In Washington, Trump's attorneys said they need time to sort through the government's evidence, which totals about 12.8 million pages.
Persons: Donald Trump, John Lauro, Judge Moxila, Jane Rosenberg, Tanya Chutkan, Trump, Joe Biden, Chutkan, Mr, Fani Willis, Mark Meadows, ” Lauro, , Sarah N, Lynch, Andy Sullivan, Scott Malone, Alistair Bell Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Rights, Republican, House, Democratic, Trump, White, White House, Prosecutors, Thomson Locations: Washington, House ., Maine, California, New York, Florida, Georgia, Fulton County, Chutkan
In late 2006, in an effort to turn the page on a legacy of state-sponsored torture, prosecutors for the George W. Bush administration began an experiment at Guantánamo Bay. They set up teams of law enforcement officers to try to obtain voluntary confessions from men who had spent years in brutal conditions in isolated C.I.A. A military judge declared that experiment a failure, at least in one case. In a wide-ranging ruling, Col. Lanny J. Acosta Jr. threw out a confession that federal agents at Guantánamo Bay obtained in 2007 from a Saudi prisoner who is accused of plotting the suicide bombing of the U.S.S. But Mr. Nashiri, who was arrested in 2002, had spent four years in secret C.I.A.
Persons: George W, Bush, Lanny J, Acosta Jr, Cole, Abd al, Rahim, Nashiri, Organizations: Saudi Locations: Aden, Yemen, U.S
The finding is the latest setback to prosecution efforts to bring the long-running capital cases at Guantánamo Bay to trial. Last week, a military judge threw out the confession of a man accused of plotting the U.S.S. The question of Mr. bin al-Shibh’s sanity, and capacity to help his lawyers defend him, has shadowed the Sept. 11 conspiracy case since his first court appearance in 2008. He has disrupted pretrial hearings over the years with outbursts, and in court and in filings complained that the C.I.A. The five men are accused of conspiring in the plane hijackings in 2001 that killed nearly 3,000 people in New York City, at the Pentagon and in Pennsylvania.
Persons: Ramzi bin al, bin, Khalid Shaikh Mohammed Organizations: Pentagon Locations: Cole, New York City, Pennsylvania
Donald Trump is facing a number of legal problems that may have an impact on his electoral chances. AdvertisementAdvertisementSo eh, they all do that is the lens that will define the public perception of the Trump indictments. Ipsos has polled Americans on their thoughts following each of the indictments Trump has faces, and the apples-to-apples comparison here is very compelling. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn all but one case, most independents think he should be charged with a crime. Independents think it's bad, but not that bad, and it truly depends on how persuadable voters are when it comes to eh, they all do that.
Persons: Donald Trump, he's, Henry II, Eleanor of Aquitaine, Biden, The Hunter Biden, Trump, Stormy Daniels, Jane Rosenberg, Reuters Trump's, Ipsos, , coughed, Ron DeSantis Organizations: Service, YouGov, Reuters, GOP, Trump, Republicans, United States Capitol, Independents, Gov Locations: Wall, Silicon, New Jersey, Manhattan, New York City, U.S, Fulton
In theory, these higher interest rates push down demand and slow inflation by forcing companies to cut prices to attract stretched-thin customers. And Americans have been spending right through the higher interest rates: Personal consumption expenditures and retail sales numbers have continued to forge upward. But eventually, this attitude will wane as people realize that the higher rates aren't a flash in the pan. The Treasury yield curve measures the different interest rates that are paid out on various bonds issued by the US government. It's the same story every time, both Kantrowitz and Rosenberg say: Investors are bad at pricing in a recession before it unfolds.
Persons: Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Milton Friedman, Bob Doll, Doll, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Tom Essaye, Essaye, Granger, Kantrowitz, Jerome Powell, William Edwards Organizations: Philadelphia Fed, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Consumer, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Silicon Valley Bank, Rosenberg Research, Fed, Auto, Wall, CPI, Institute for Supply Management's, Treasury, Royal Bank of Canada Locations: Silicon, YOLO
Yields on 10-year Treasury yields have surged well above 4%. With both stock valuations and interest rates high, stock prices could continue to fall. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes surged to 15-year highs this week, surpassing 4.3% for the first time since late 2007. This has put a damper on what was a 20% rally for the S&P 500 from January to the end of July. The median S&P 500 year-end price target among major Wall Street strategists is 4,300, just below the index's current price around 4,370.
Persons: Stocks, Adam Turnquist, Treasurys, It's, John Lynch, they've, Tom Essaye, Lynch, Turnquist, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Greg Boutle, Cantor Fitzgerald's Eric Johnston, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Organizations: Treasury, LPL, Bank of America, Comerica Wealth, Wall Street, Rosenberg Research, RBC, BNP
Healing Futures is a Philadelphia restorative-justice-diversion program for people under 18. Harvey got a call a few weeks later from Kempis "Ghani" Songster, the program manager for Healing Futures, Philadelphia's first pre-charge program for youth restorative-justice diversion. AdvertisementNone of the youths who have completed the Healing Futures program have recidivated, he said. He's also now one of the 33 youths who've completed the Healing Futures program. September 6, 2023: This story has been updated to include the name of the parent organization of Healing Futures, the Youth Art & Self-Empowerment Project.
Persons: Janelle Harvey, Harvey, Kempis, Ghani, Songster, Philadelphia's, hadn't, Felix Rosado, Cheyenne Wade, Daniel, He's, who've, Kendra Brooks, Brooks, Queen, Rosado Organizations: Healing, Youth, Futures, Community Works, SEPTA, Charles Foundation, Philadelphia City Council, Kendra Brooks Healing, Healing Futures Locations: Philadelphia, Chicago , Washington, Queen, Oakland , California, Alameda County
If you were an American artist or writer in the 1920s, Paris was where you wanted to be. She had lived in New York once, just eight years before, but in her absence the city had been scaled up: new skyscrapers were rising, the population was exploding, and every block, it seemed, was abuzz with commerce and construction. (The market crash of October 1929 was still many months away). Suddenly, Paris was passé. The exhibition’s focus is a disbound scrapbook with seven to nine photographs per page, all taken over the course of that year, as Abbott paced the streets (and piers, bridges and train platforms) with a hand-held camera and a compulsion to capture New York’s unruly, cutthroat modernity.
Persons: Berenice Abbott, , Man Ray, James Joyce, Djuna Barnes, “ Bernice ”, Berenice, , Abbott, , Berenice Abbott’s Organizations: Metropolitan Museum Locations: American, Paris, Springfield , Ohio, New York, , Lower Manhattan, United States
In the nearly 12 years since a prisoner was charged in the bombing of the U.S.S. Cole warship, eight parents of the 17 fallen American sailors have died waiting for a trial to begin. Late this June, just two members of that group were there — a sailor’s father and a naval officer who survived the blast. The bombing of the Cole never garnered the attention of Guantánamo’s better-known prosecution of the five men who are accused of plotting the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. But the Cole attack came first, on Oct. 12, 2000.
Persons: Cole, Guantánamo’s Locations: U.S, Ukraine
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