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Fears remained on Wall Street on Monday despite the measures announced over the weekend following the collapse of California-based Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) and New York-based Signature Bank (SBNY.O). Some investors have called for further action by banking regulators to reassure markets. But banking experts said regulators would likely want to see the extent of any further contagion before deciding on fresh measures. In addition, the Fed announced Monday it was doing an internal review of its oversight of Silicon Valley Bank, where it was the primary regulator. Prior to Silicon Valley Bank's collapse, banks had been lobbying lawmakers to push back against the Fed's review, arguing it could slow the economy.

[1/3] A person walks into the lobby of the Signature Bank headquarters, in New York City, U.S., March 13, 2023. Signature Bank did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Signature was a traditional commercial bank with a wide range of activities and customers,” an NYDFS spokesperson said. The spokesperson added that as withdrawal requests ballooned over the weekend, Signature Bank failed to provide reliable and consistent data. The FDIC established a "bridge" successor bank to Signature Bank on Sunday to enable depositors to access their funds.

☆ How Can We Measure Droughts and Deluges? Weigh the Planet.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Mira Rojanasakul | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +15 min

Scientists have long cautioned that warming temperatures would lead to wetter and drier global extremes — increasingly severe rainfall, more intense droughts. km3/month Global intensity of wet and dry extremes 30,000 20,000 Wet extremes 10,000 -10,000 Dry extremes -20,000 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 km3/month 30,000 Global intensity of wet and dry extremes 20,000 Wet extremes 10,000 -10,000 Dry extremes -20,000 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 km3/month Global intensity of wet and dry extremes 30,000 20,000 Wet extremes 10,000 -10,000 Dry extremes -20,000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 km3/ month Global intensity of wet and dry extremes 30,000 20,000 Wet extremes 10,000 -10,000 Dry extremes -20,000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 km3/ month Global intensity of wet and dry extremes 30,000 20,000 Wet extremes 10,000 -10,000 Dry extremes -20,000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Source: Rodell and Li, Nature Water (2023), based on analysis of NASA Grace and Grace-FO data. Europe July 2018–April 2021 Drought across Europe returned with the La Niña that lasted through 2022. Central Africa 2. Central Africa 2.

Silicon Valley Bank had $209 billion in assets at the end of last year, while Signature Bank had some $110 billion. The failure of Silicon Valley Bank is a direct result of an absurd 2018 bank deregulation bill signed by (Republican former President) Donald Trump that I strongly opposed," Senator Bernie Sanders said in a statement. he added, saying awareness of the bank's recent growth and business model should have led Fed officials to anticipate trouble. In an op-ed for the New York Times, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren placed some of the blame at the feet of bank regulators, whom she accused of "letting financial institutions load up on risk." "There won't be legislation getting through Congress, and so regulators will be making the big decisions," he said.

The inflation rate in January actually rose, while an Atlanta Fed real-time projection as of March 8 showed gross domestic product expanding at a 2.6% annual rate, well above the economy's roughly 2% underlying potential. As of December the high point for the target federal funds rate was expected by most officials to be 5.1%. Government reports released after Powell's last press conference showed the central bank's preferred measure of inflation had risen slightly to a 5.4% annual rate. It is not the first time the Fed has been caught out by after-the-fact data updates. And Powell is trying to be nimble," said former Fed economist John Roberts.

WASHINGTON/SINGAPORE, March 13 (Reuters) - U.S. authorities launched emergency measures on Sunday to shore up confidence in the banking system after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) threatened to trigger a broader financial crisis. Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), a mainstay for the startup economy, was a product of the decades-long era of cheap money, with unique risks that made it especially vulnerable. With the Fed poised to continue raising interest rates, investors said the financial system may not be fully out of the woods just yet. Goldman Sachs' analysts said they no longer expect it to raise rates at that meeting, amid the stress in the banking sector. A senior U.S. Treasury official said the actions taken would protect depositors, while providing additional support to the broader banking system, but officials and regulators were continuing to monitor financial system stability.

March 12 (Reuters) - State regulators closed New York-based Signature Bank (SBNY.O) on Sunday, the third largest failure in U.S. banking history, two days after authorities shuttered Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) in a collapse that stranded billions in deposits. All of the depositors of Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank will be made whole, and "no losses will be borne by the taxpayer," the U.S. Treasury Department and other bank regulators said in a joint statement. Signature's failure followed Silicon Valley Bank's Friday shutdown, the second largest in U.S. history behind Washington Mutual, which collapsed during the 2008 financial crisis. Signature Bank's depositors and borrowers will automatically become customers of the bridge bank, the FDIC said. Signature Bank cut ties with Trump in 2021 following the deadly Jan. 6 riots on Capitol Hill, and urged Trump to resign.

The U.S. Treasury Department and other bank regulators said in a joint statement on Sunday that all depositors of Signature Bank will be made whole, and "no losses will be borne by the taxpayer." Signature Bank reported deposit balances totaling $89.17 billion as of March 8. Representatives for Signature Bank did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The FDIC on Sunday established a "bridge" successor bank to Signature Bank, which will enable customers to access their funds on Monday. Signature Bank's depositors and borrowers will automatically become customers of the bridge bank, the FDIC said.

WASHINGTON, March 12 (Reuters) - Earlier this month the U.S. Federal Reserve in a report to Congress gave what has become a standard reassurance: Banks were strong and the overall financial system in solid shape. Regulators on Sunday were working on a response to contain any fallout from the bank's collapse, including a sale to another institution able to make depositors whole. More broadly, the Fed has tools that are always available to shore up the financial system, including direct loans to banks with adequate collateral through its so-called discount window. Karim Basta, chief economist for III Capital Management, wrote on Sunday, mapping out the potential trail from SVB's collapse to broader macroeconomic implications. "Large banks continue to have ample liquidity to meet severe deposit outflows," the Fed report said.

March 10 (Reuters) - Greg Becker, the chief executive officer who presided over the collapsed Silicon Valley Bank, joined the company three decades ago as a loan officer. Becker graduated from Indiana University with a bachelor's degree in business, according to Silicon Valley Bank's website. When his manager left to work for Silicon Valley Bank, Becker followed, he said in 2021 on a Bloomberg podcast. Representatives for Silicon Valley Bank did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Before becoming president and CEO of SVB Financial Group, Becker co-founded SVB Capital, the company's investment arm.

"We have not made any decision," Powell said, but will be looking closely at upcoming jobs data on Friday and inflation data next week in deciding whether rate hikes need to shift back into a higher gear. Recent inflation data was worse than expected, and revisions to prior months showed the Fed had made less progress than expected in returning inflation to its 2% target from current levels that are more than double that. At the margins, however, some of the data did move in ways consistent with the softer job market the Fed hopes will develop. In their last set of projections, in mid-December, the median estimate of the high point of the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate was between 5.00% and 5.25%, versus the current 4.50%-4.75% range. Reporting by Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir and Lindsay Dunsmuir; Writing by Dan Burns and Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Netflix's expected password-sharing crackdown puts college students on edge
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Sam Figiel, a sophomore at Mercer University in Georgia, said access to Netflix is required for many of his peers' classes. Yet the gradual password-sharing changes have created uncertainty for college students who might not have, or want to spend, disposable income for their own subscriptions. People in the 18-to-34 age group, which accounts for 30% of all Netflix users, are more likely to exchange passwords than older viewers. "There are a lot, lot, lot of U.S. users that are not paying for it, and so I think they're very sensitive to the backlash that they're going to get when they institute this," Nollen said. Staying or leavingEven if the cost of a subscription could rise for borrowers, some college students think Netflix is too important to give up.

"If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes," Powell said. Republicans focused on whether energy policy was restricting supply and keeping prices higher than needed, and whether restrained federal spending could help the Fed's cause. As of December, officials saw that rate rising to a peak of around 5.1%, a level investors expect may move at least half a percentage point higher now. With a 50-basis-point rate hike now in play, Brown said a strong monthly jobs report on Friday would likely lead to "calls for a 6% terminal rate," nearly a percentage point higher than Fed officials had projected as of December. How much remains unclear, but Powell said the focus will remain more squarely on how inflation behaves.

"If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes," Powell said. The Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate is currently in the 4.50%-4.75% range. Senator Sherrod Brown, the Democratic chair of the committee, said the Fed's rate hikes ignored what he viewed as a chief cause of inflation - high corporate profits. "To restore price stability, we will need to see lower inflation in this sector, and there will very likely be some softening in labor market conditions," Powell said. Powell's last monetary policy report to Congress was in June, which was early in what became the most aggressive cycle of Fed rate increases since the 1980s.

While ostensibly focused on monetary policy, the questions tend to range across issues, and the sessions this week - the first since Republicans took control of the House after midterm elections - may be particularly wide in scope. Powell's last monetary policy report to Congress was in June, early in what became the most aggressive cycle of Fed rate increases since the 1980s. Fed rate hikes "are designed to harm the labor market. Despite some high-profile layoff announcements, weekly new jobless claims have remained below 200,000 for seven consecutive weeks, comparable to pre-pandemic levels. That ongoing strength has posed perhaps the key question for Powell to answer: Whether the impact of monetary policy is just delayed and on the way, or whether the current economy needs even tighter monetary policy, with all the risks that entails.

"If corporate profits were to decline from the extremely high levels that we saw recently, would it be possible to sustain" growth in workers' benefits "even as we get inflation down to the target of 2%?" Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen asked Powell during the Fed chief's semi-annual testimony before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. "Wages affect prices and prices affect wages," Powell said, associating current earnings growth to the current ultra-low unemployment rate of 3.4%, and suggesting the labor market may need to weaken at least somewhat for inflation to fall. SHORTAGESUltimately, Powell said he felt profits would likely moderate on their own as the U.S. economy moves beyond the pandemic. "What we're seeing in the economy is pretty much about shortages ... supply chain blockages," Powell said.

Like Willis, private economists and analysts at payroll firms and staffing companies also see a labor market that is stressed but adjusting. A recent Goldman Sachs study concluded wage growth should continue slowing even with the current low unemployment rate of 3.4%. But even that came with slowing wage growth, and the gain was amplified by seasonal adjustments used to factor out expected swings in hiring during holidays and summer. Nela Richardson, chief economist at payroll processor ADP, said even as economy-wide hiring remains strong, the tech layoffs may be helping mute overall wage growth. "If that is a trend...we would expect there would be less drive for wage growth," she said.

"In response...the FOMC continued to rapidly increase interest rates and reduce its securities holdings," the report said, and also "anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate." The document noted that U.S. financial conditions have tightened since the Fed's last report to Congress in June, and hinted that the impact of monetary policy was intensifying in some corners of the economy. Business loans by banks grew through 2022 "but decelerated in the fourth quarter," the report said. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will discuss the report and Fed policy in back-to-back congressional hearings next week, appearing at 10 a.m. EST Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee and Wednesday at 10 a.m. before the House Financial Services Committee. It will be Powell's first testimony since the Republican party took control of the House after the November midterm elections.

"It could be that progress has stalled, or it is possible that the numbers released last month were a blip," he said. The current policy rate is set in a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. Bostic also said he was ready to raise rates higher if upcoming data did not show inflation "clearly" heading back towards the central bank's 2% target from its January level of about 5.4%. But he also felt the impact of Fed rate increases so far may only be getting started, a reason to be careful in deciding on further rate hikes lest the central bank overstep. Fed rate increases "should bite through the spring ...

WASHINGTON, March 2 (Reuters) - The impact of higher U.S. interest rates on the economy may only begin to "bite" in earnest this spring, an argument for the Federal Reserve to stick with "steady" quarter-point rate increases, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday. "I am still very much of a mindset that slow and steady is going to be the appropriate course of action," Bostic said in comments to reporters. The cumulative effect of the Fed rate increases "should bite through the spring ... He has penciled in another half percentage point of increases as likely needed, but that depends on what upcoming data show about an economy that continues to outperform expectations. The Fed targets a 2% rate of annual increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, which as of January was increasing at a 5.4% annual rate.

☆ In the midst of the AI boom, investors are doubling down on diligence. Here are the five questions VCs are asking every generative AI startup during pitches.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Stephanie Palazzolo | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Buzzy generative AI startups have so far avoided the troubles plaguing the rest of the tech world. Here are the five diligence questions investors are asking generative AI startups, according to VCs. But for generative AI startups, 2023 has been much of the same — and that hasn't been a bad thing. Insider spoke with eight of these VCs about the top five questions they're asking generative AI startups during diligence processes. One hallmark of generative AI startups are their eye-staggering round sizes.

March 2 (Reuters) - A virtual event with Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller was canceled on Thursday after the Zoom video conference was "hijacked" by a participant who displayed pornographic images. It is an incident we deeply regret," said Brent Tjarks, executive director of the Mid-Size Bank Coalition of America (MBCA), which hosted the event via a Zoom link. "We have been deeply upset to hear about these types of incidents, and Zoom strongly condemns such behavior," Zoom spokesman Matt Nagel said in a statement. The service has come under fire over privacy and security issues, including incidents of "Zoom bombing" in which uninvited users entered and disrupted meetings. The Fed said the event, which was to feature a speech by Waller as well as a question-and-answer session, was canceled due to "technical difficulties."

Kashkari, a voter on Fed rate policy this year, said he had not made a final call yet on a new projection for the target federal funds rate. But "at this point...I lean towards continuing to raise further," beyond the 5.4% level that he previously thought would be adequate to lower inflation. Fed officials will submit new projections at a meeting in three weeks, and analysts and investors expect the median rate seen by officials for the end of 2023 will move perhaps a quarter point higher than the 5.1% anticipated as of December. The federal funds rate is currently set in a range from 4.5% to 4.75% after a rapid set of rate increases last year lifted it from a near zero level. The jump in inflation in January, however, has not prompted a universal call to respond.

Several indicators suggest that housing services inflation is likely to come down in the coming months. There is more uncertainty surrounding inflation in core services excluding housing," Jefferson said in remarks to a Harvard University economics class. The Fed uses the PCE index to sets its inflation target. "I'm under no illusion that it's going to be easy to get the inflation rate back down to 2%," Jefferson said. Jefferson did not detail his views on the Fed's upcoming policy decision, or how much higher he thinks the target federal funds rate might have to move beyond the 4.5% to 4.75% range set at the Fed's last meeting.

"We've been talking about impending recession for several quarters now," said Malone, whose Virginia Beach-based company has a national footprint. So has unexpectedly strong consumer spending and, for the world outlook, the reopening of China's economy from strict COVID lockdowns. That poured cold water on the idea that the Fed would "pivot" on a dime to lower rates. "Government bond yields are up" since the last Fed policy meeting, Durham wrote. "It kind of seems the U.S. economy might be more resilient than markets thought six or eight weeks ago."

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