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Producer prices, weekly jobless claims and consumer sentiment data are all lined up through the week. "The bigger picture is inflation will remain higher for longer and that we are heading into a recession. The KBW Regional Banking index (.KRX) fell 2.2% after posting its best single-day performance in seven weeks on Friday. Shares of regional banks tumbled for much of last week on worries tied to the collapse of First Republic Bank. The S&P index recorded 10 new 52-week highs and four new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 47 new highs and 53 new lows.
In Europe, the broad pan-regional STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.34% on expectations non-U.S. stocks will outperform in the months ahead. Sterling , which has gained 4.4% against the dollar this year, earlier hit a 12-month high of 1.2668 ahead of an expected Bank of England rate increase on Thursday. The dollar rose 0.01% against the yen. "The survey should point to further broad-based tightening in bank lending standards," said Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan. Bullion regained ground after a sharp retreat in the previous session, ahead of the inflation data that could shed light on the outlook for U.S. interest rates.
But Gary Richardson, a Federal Reserve historian, is worried policymakers — now contemplating taking a breather — still risk repeating mistakes from that era. A premature retreat could cause the Fed to lose its handle on the situation, presenting even grimmer options down the road. Quick rewind: The chair of the Federal Reserve at the time, Arthur Burns, hiked interest rates dramatically between 1972 and 1974. Inflation later roared back, forcing the hand of Paul Volcker, who took over at the Fed in 1979, Richardson said. But the comparisons reveal the high stakes for the Federal Reserve at a moment of acute uncertainty.
PacWest Bankcorp led a relief rally in regional banks again on Monday, after the struggling lender slashed dividend to build capital amid the banking crisis. PacWest CEO Paul Taylor reassured investors that the bank's businesses remains "fundamentally sound." Other regional banks also rebounded for a second day. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) rose by 2.8% in premarket, following a 6.3% rally Friday. Western Alliance jumped 8% in premarket Monday after gaining 49% in the previous session, and Zions Bancorp rose 4% Monday.
SINGAPORE, May 8 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose slightly in early Asian trade on Monday as fears of a recession in the U.S., which drove prices down for three straight weeks for the first time since November, began to recede. Brent crude futures were up 6 cents at $75.36 a barrel at 0022 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 8 cents at $71.42. "Crude prices may continue to take the rebounding tailwind," CMC'S Teng said. Reporting by Sudarshan Varadhan; Editing by Sonali PaulOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Stocks were mixed Monday afternoon after the Federal Reserve’s lending officer survey showed credit conditions tightened in the first quarter. The report kicked off a busy week with more corporate earnings and inflation data on tap. Regional bank stocks jumped at the open but lost much of that ground as trading progressed. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking index lost 1.8%. Oil prices rose, pointing to a recovery for Brent crude after finishing Friday with a third straight weekly loss.
Asia shares inch higher, U.S. inflation test looms
  + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
"The survey should point to further broad-based tightening in bank lending standards," said Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan. "Though our analysis suggests that the impact of a credit tightening against an otherwise healthy backdrop tends to be limited." S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both off 0.1%, after jumping on Friday in the wake of Apple's (AAPL.O) upbeat results. The dollar stood at 135.19 yen , with the euro at 148.93 and not far from its recent 15-year peak of 151.55. Brent was last up 3 cents at $75.33 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 5 cents to $71.39 per barrel.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSynovus CEO Kevin Blair on deposits, bank stability, and lending standardsKevin Blair, Synovus Financial CEO and Chairman, discusses how his bank is doing amid the regional banking turmoil.
Bank stocks could be due for a rally, if history repeats itself. The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) , which is focused on regional banks, climbed 6.3% on Friday. Meanwhile, the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) , a fund that tracks financial stocks more broadly, advanced 2.5%. The KRE was down more than 1% on Monday as regional bank stocks were once again under pressure. Notably, closely watched PacWest was able to avoid the regional bank downturn, adding 10% on Monday after surging almost 82% Friday.
The Vanguard Small-Cap Index ETF (VB) is down 10% over the past three months, and the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) has plunged 40%. VB 3M mountain Passive small-cap funds like VB have been hurt by the regional banking crisis. "Of the 130+ passively managed small-cap ETFs, the average Financials sector exposure is 16%. Small-cap funds is one category where active funds should have plenty of room to grow, Sohn said. Research shows that very few active managers can consistently beat index funds, and the index funds are almost always cheaper for investors by expense ratio.
PacWest rallies on dividend cut to bolster capital
  + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
May 8 (Reuters) - Shares of PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) jumped 39% in premarket trading on Monday and led a recovery in the battered U.S. banking sector after the lender sharply cut its quarterly dividend to shore up its finances. "Given the extreme volatility in the stock recently ... we believe this dividend reduction makes sense and can help the pace of capital building," RBC Capital Markets analysts wrote in a note. PacWest shares, which soared nearly 82% in their last trading session, were currently trading at $7.96. U.S. federal and state officials are assessing whether "market manipulation" caused the recent volatility in banking shares, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing a source familiar with the matter. Billionaire Warren Buffett, whose views are closely watched by investors, said on Saturday his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N) was cautious around the banking sector.
CNBC Daily Open: Investors liked April's jobs growth
  + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Broader markets were boosted by April's jobs report, which showed a higher-than-expected increase in jobs growth and an unemployment rate of 3.4% — a record low since 1969. Recall January's jobs report: There were 517,000 new jobs in December, almost three times the forecast. A strong jobs market increases the probability that the U.S. economy can tame inflation without contracting too severely. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
CNBC Daily Open: Investors like jobs growth
  + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Broader markets were boosted by April's jobs report, which showed a higher-than-expected increase in jobs growth and an unemployment rate of 3.4% — a record low since 1969. Recall January's jobs report: There were 517,000 new jobs in December, almost three times the forecast. A strong jobs market increases the probability that the U.S. economy can tame inflation without contracting too severely. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
May 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. If the mood in Asian markets on Tuesday reflects the broader global mood on Monday, there's every reason to expect an increase in risk appetite and risk assets, despite a higher dollar and Treasury yields. But there was no obvious sign of a credit crunch, which fits with recent weekly bank deposit flow and lending data too. Several positioning and sentiment indicators suggest investors are the most gloomy on stocks - especially Wall Street - than they have been in years, even decades. Asian markets appear to be looking at the U.S. banking and debt issues with a 'glass half-full' mentality.
In 2020, Bain Capital set up a previous global fund after securing $3.2 billion in commitments. The program was previously called Bain Capital Distressed and Special Situations Fund and used to sit within Bain Capital's credit business. Bain Capital's special situations strategy is now a standalone business, after being carved out with an independent team outside the umbrella of the credit unit. Globally, Bain Capital currently has $16 billion of assets under management as part of its special situations strategy. Last year, Bain Capital closed a $2 billion "special situations fund" for Asia Pacific to cover a range of asset types, which included a focus on real estate.
Stifel just got more bullish on where stocks will land at the halfway point of 2023, and encouraged investors buy cyclical stocks. However, the strategist expects investors will not have to worry about a downturn until later down the road. Given this, Bannister said he's been bullish on cyclical growth and value stocks since October. Meanwhile, he expects cyclical value stocks in basic materials, capital goods, banks, transportation and others that took a hit during the regional banking crisis are "oversold" if the economy continues to hold up. He said defensive value stocks are "last year's story," while defensive growth stocks will benefit when the U.S. reaches a recession.
Banks Are in the Grips of Investor Crisis of Confidence
  + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( Telis Demos | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
WSJ’s Ben Eisen explains what the bank’s crisis means for customers, investors and the industry. Illustration: Preston JesseeFirst Republic Bank ’s seizure and sale to JPMorgan Chase was supposed to be a cathartic moment for American banks, the denouement of the financial system’s latest crisis of confidence. The relief lasted for barely a day. On Tuesday, shares of regional banks were plunging, with a handful of them dropping by double-digit percentages. At one point on Thursday, the KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index was down by 15% from the prior week, though it rallied back on Friday to finish the week down 8%.
Wall Street’s still worried despite Friday’s fakeout
  + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
In other words, Wall Street still has concerns about the banking sector’s health, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory and the possibility of recession. Key inflation reports aheadThe April Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index are on deck for next week. The Fed on Wednesday raised interest rates by a quarter point and opened the door to a pause later this year. Wednesday: April Consumer Price Index and earnings report from Disney (DIS). Thursday: April Producer Price Index, mortgage rates and jobless claims.
May 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. The regional economic data calendar on Monday is light, with the final reading of Japanese purchasing managers index and Taiwanese trade for April the main releases. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, for one, is very optimistic: "It's possible that this time is really different. Technology giant JD.com (9618.HK) and China's largest chip foundry Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (0981.HK) both release first-quarter earnings on Thursday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
The Regional Bank Selloff Visualized
  + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( Alana Pipe | Dan Delorenzo | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Some investors are still worried about the health of regional banks as another week of turbulence sent shares of many of the companies tumbling before a rally Friday. In a week that included another interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve and a rescue of First Republic by JPMorgan Chase , the KBW Regional Banking Index, which tracks regional banks in the U.S., was down 28% this year, through Friday.
Bill Ackman, Jeffrey Gundlach, Mohamed El-Erian and others are warning the banking turmoil is far from over. That's prompting top economists and investors to once again warn that the banking turmoil is far from over. Below is a selection of the most recent warnings on US banking risks from high-profile investors, analysts and other experts. Bill Ackman, billionaire investor"The FDIC's failure to update and expand its insurance regime has hammered more nails in the coffin," Ackman said Wednesday on Twitter. He was raising doubts about Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's suggestion during a Wednesday press conference that the worst of the banking turmoil is over.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFifth Third Bank CEO expects core deposit balances to be stable through year endFifth Third Bank CEO Timothy Spence joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what he sees ahead in the financial sector after a heavy regional banking sell-off.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with PIMCO's Richard Clarida on latest rate hikeFormer Federal Reserve vice chair and PIMCO Global Economic Advisor Richard Clarida joins 'Closing Bell' to give his take on the Fed's latest rate hike, the regional banking sector, and what the central bank's next move might be.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida says Fed made 'the right move' raising rates againFormer Federal Reserve Vice Chair and PIMCO Global Economic Advisor Richard Clarida joins 'Closing Bell' to give his take on the Fed's latest rate hike, the regional banking sector, and what the central bank's next move might be.
US regional lenders eke out gains after brutal sell-off
  + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
May 5 (Reuters) - Shares of U.S. regional lenders rose in premarket trading on Friday following a brutal sell-off during the week that saw First Republic Bank collapse and peer PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) explore strategic options. The KBW Regional Banking Index (.KRX) has plunged about 31% this year as the sector grapples with deepening investor concerns with billions in market value wiped in recent weeks. PacWest, whose shares have plummeted 86% this year, said late on Wednesday it was in talks with potential partners and investors as it weighs strategic options. Shares of the bank plunged to close down 33%. Reporting by Manya Saini in Bengaluru; additional reporting by Amruta Khandekar Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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