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The central bank said inflation will come under further pressure. Erdogan said last week he approved the steps Simsek would take with the central bank, suggesting he had given the green light to rate hikes. The central bank's key rate remains below deposit rates that reach up to 40% and real rates are still deeply negative. The central bank's net reserves fell to a record low of negative $5.7 billion last month. Authorities hope foreign investors and hard currency will return after a years-long exodus, potentially reducing the central bank's need to intervene to keep the lira stable.
Persons: Tayyip Erdogan's, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Piotr Matys, Ezgi Erkoyun, Ali Kucukgocmen, Christina Fincher, Daren Butler Organizations: Reuters Graphics, Wall Street, InTouch, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL, Ankara
MUMBAI, June 22 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to rise on Thursday, helped by the dollar's fall despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's fairly hawkish comments to U.S. lawmakers. Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open at around 81.94-81.98 to the U.S. dollar compared with 82.0375 in the previous session. The offshore Chinese yuan recovered to 7.1690 to the dollar, having fallen below 7.20 at one point in the previous session. KEY INDICATORS:** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 82.03; onshore one-month forward premium at 7 paisa** USD/INR NSE June futures settled on Wednesday at 82.0250** USD/INR forward premium as of Jun. 20** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $46.5mln worth of Indian bonds on Jun.
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Powell, Nimesh Vora, Dhanya Ann Thoppil Organizations: U.S, Fargo Advisors, U.S . Senate, DBS, Brent, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, Asia
MUMBAI, June 21 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to open slightly higher to the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, shrugging off a decline in other Asian currencies. Non-deliverable forwards (NDF) indicate the rupee will open at 82.06-82.08, up slightly from 82.1175 in the previous session. The USD/INR NDF has not reacted to another round of losses for the Chinese yuan and the move higher on USD/Asia overall, a forex trader at a private bank said. The offshore Chinese yuan dropped below 7.20 to the dollar, the lowest since November 2022. The offshore Chinese yuan has lost 1% this month to add to the 3% decline in May.
Persons: shrugging, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Nimesh Vora, Sonia Cheema Organizations: U.S, NDF, Korean, U.S . Federal, ANZ, Brent, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, Asia, U.S
But the level remains uncertain as the central bank has not given any signals as to its next steps, including the size or pace of potential hikes. Some economists have expressed doubt about Erdogan's commitment to abandoning his unorthodox policy of low rates, which led the central bank to slash its policy rate from 19% in 2021 to 8.5% currently. The median estimate for the policy rate at end-2023 was 30%, with forecasts ranging from 18% to 35%. He named Naci Agbal as central bank governor in Nov. 2020 but, after some sharp rate hikes, replaced him less than five months later. The central bank is scheduled to announce its rate decision at 1100 GMT on Thursday.
Persons: Murad Sezer, Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Malek Drimal, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Moody's, Naci, Simsek, Ali Kucukgocmen, Marc Jones, Jonathan Spicer, Daren Butler, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Societe Generale, stoke, Thomson Locations: Istanbul, Turkey, ISTANBUL
Mega-merger gives Indian lender new lease on life
  + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Shritama Bose | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
HDFC Bank (HDBK.NS), the country’s largest private lender, is set in July to complete its merger with its parent, partner and 26% shareholder Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) (HDFC.NS). That’s a great opportunity for the larger, streamlined HDFC Bank – until now it sold most home loans it originated to its parent. However, the share of mortgages in HDFC Bank’s portfolio will rise close to 30%, compared to SBI’s 20%. HDFC Bank remains a fixer-upper in a couple of important respects, though. Housing Development Finance Corporation created HDFC Bank in 1994 and remains a 26% shareholder.
Persons: Sashidhar Jagdishan, That’s, HDFC, Jagdishan, Breakingviews, Srinivasan Vaidyanathan, Antony Currie, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, HDFC Bank, Housing Development Finance Corporation, , Bank of India, Mahindra Bank, Reserve Bank of India, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, Asia, China, United States, watchdogs, Credila
India's foreign ministry is consulting with departments on their appetite for fertiliser and gas from Cairo as part payment for the credit line, an Indian official said. India, the world's second-largest wheat producer, banned wheat exports in May 2022 to help control rising domestic prices, rescinding a plan to export 3 million tons of wheat to Egypt in the year 2022/23. The other sources from India and Egypt did not wish to be identified as they are not authorised to speak to the press. India's external affairs ministry, finance ministry, trade minister, and Egypt's foreign ministry and trade ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment. India exported $4.11 billion of goods to Egypt in the last fiscal year, while importing $1.95 billion.
Persons: Narendra Modi's, Ali Moselhy, Moselhy, Rajendra Jadhav, Conor Humphries Organizations: Reuters, Indian, Thomson Locations: CAIRO, DELHI, India, Egypt, Delhi, Cairo, New Delhi, Russia
Chinese investor participation will revitalize the country's market, Mark Mobius said. "Going forward, it'll be the Chinese investors who will revive the Chinese market, because at the end of the day, it's not foreign investors who drive the Chinese market. It's the Chinese investors," the Mobius Capital Partners co-founder said. As the economy has disappointed, even investors in China are bailing on Chinese markets and shifting their money overseas. Because remember, the Chinese look at property as an investment — as a very key investment, a much bigger thing than in other parts of the world," Mobius said.
Persons: Mark Mobius, , it'll, it's, Mobius Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Mobius Capital Partners Locations: China, Beijing
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 81.93-81.96 to the U.S. dollar, compared with its spot close of 82.1750 in the previous session. Meanwhile, the dollar index hit a five-week low on Thursday and saw its worst one-day session since March 13 after a hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) signalled more rate hikes. The rupee should see some appreciation on Friday, which should also benefit from the yuan's move, a trader with foreign bank said. The rupee has gained about 0.35% so far this week, benefiting from likely corporate dollar inflows. 14** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $2.5mln worth of Indian bonds on Jun.
Persons: Srinivas Puni Organizations: U.S . Federal, U.S ., European Central Bank, QuantArt, Brent, Sethuraman NR, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Bengaluru
Hong Kong stocks such as Alibaba (9988.HK) and Tencent (0700.HK) are among the 24 stocks which will be priced and traded in both yuan and the Hong Kong dollar under the Dual Counter Model on the Hong Kong stock exchange (HKEX) from Monday. Offshore yuan deposits in Hong Kong alone are estimated at some 833 billion yuan ($117 billion). "Mainland investors, including mutual fund companies like us, have genuine incentives to trade Hong Kong stocks in yuan," said Ding of ChinaAMC. "There's lot of political uncertainty these days so you may want to hold yuan rather than U.S. dollars, or the Hong Kong dollar, which is pegged to the U.S. ($1 = 7.8217 Hong Kong dollars)Reporting by Samuel Shen and Georgina Lee; Editing by Vidya Ranganathan and Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Ding Wenjie, Ding, it's, Dong Chen, YUAN, Sun, Kai Properties, ChinaAMC, David Friedland, Samuel Shen, Georgina Lee, Vidya Ranganathan, Kim Coghill Organizations: HK, Hong Kong, Hong, China, Fund, U.S ., Global Capital Investment, China Asset Management, The U.S, Pictet Wealth Management, AIA, Hang Seng Bank Ltd, Interactive Brokers, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, HONG KONG, Hong, Hong Kong, China, Brazil, Russia, Beijing, Moscow, Ukraine, The, Pakistan, Asia, Asia Pacific
Thailand golden visa: Minimum application fee of $19,000 requiredTwin pagoda monastery built on top of the mountain in the North of Thailand during sunset. Guntaphat Pokasasipun/Getty ImagesThailand's "Elite Visa" membership program provides qualified foreign investors with a "Privilege Entry Visa" that is valid for up to 20 years. There are eight different program options, ranging from "elite flexible one" to "elite ultimate privilege," according to Thailand Privilege Card Co., the state-owned enterprise within Thailand's federal tourism agency that runs the program. The minimum payment required is an application fee of approximately $19,000.
Persons: Guntaphat Pokasasipun Locations: Thailand, North
A strong dollar affects prices, tourism and tradeThe ripple effect of a robust dollar permeates various parts of the economic picture, from international trade to tourism. “One of the underappreciated dimensions of a strong dollar is that it weighs on inflation,” she said. While Americans may find trips abroad relatively cheaper during times of dollar strength, tourism to the United States may take a hit. Relative weakness in European and Asian economies has also added investors’ appetite for the dollar, according to Gagnon. “I don’t see anything on the horizon that would weaken the dollar,” Gagnon said.
Persons: … that’s, Lisa Shalett, Shalett, Joseph Gagnon, , That’s, Gagnon, ” Gagnon, Goldman Sachs, Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Products, Walmart, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Deutsche Bank, eventual Locations: United, United States
June 16 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The Bank of Japan, the most dovish major central bank in the world, announces its latest policy decision on Friday, with markets highly sensitive to signs of when and to what degree it will ditch its super-loose policy. The BOJ follows surprisingly aggressive interest rate increases and guidance recently from policymakers in Canada and Australia, and this week's hawkish signals from the European Central Bank and, to a lesser extent, the U.S. Federal Reserve. The BOJ remains the outlier among major central banks, promising to maintain its loose policy until it is sure inflation meets the 2% target. If Japanese assets are any indication, investors expect Ueda and his colleagues to err on the dovish side.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, Kazuo Ueda's, Ueda, Fed's Bullard, Waller, Barkin Organizations: The Bank of Japan, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of America, ECB, Nikkei, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Canada, Australia, Japan
The Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) is in talks with The Sovereign Wealth Fund of Egypt (TSFE) about the deal, said two sources with knowledge of the matter, who declined to be named. The fund is considering acquiring a stake of up to 30% in the hotels, the sources said, without naming them. Relations between Egypt and Qatar soured in the wake of the Arab Spring uprisings that toppled former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Regional heavyweight Saudi Arabia has led efforts to rebuild ties with Qatar and, along with Egypt, re-established diplomatic relations in 2021. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani in Baghdad in August 2021 for the first time since ending the dispute.
Persons: Sheikh Hazza bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Abdel Fattah El Sisi, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, St Regis Saadiyat, Egypt's TSFE, Agatha Christie's, Hosni Mubarak, Abdel Fattah al, Sisi, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad, Hadeel El, Andrew Mills, Patrick Werr, Louise Heavens, Mark Potter, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Abu, Abu Dhabi Executive Council, St Regis, United, United Arab Emirates, Read, Qatar Investment Authority, Sovereign Wealth Fund of Egypt, Regional, Qatar, Thomson Locations: Abu Dhabi, Egypt, Qatar, United Arab, DUBAI, Harrods, London, Aswan, Saudi Arabia, Thani, Baghdad, Ukraine, Hadeel El Sayegh, Dubai, Doha, Cairo
Even investors in China are bailing on Chinese markets and shifting their money overseas. Most of that Chinese money has been flowing into dollar assets, according to Bloomberg. The outflow by Chinese investors is the latest indication that markets are souring on the economy. Last month, foreign investors sold Chinese stocks at a faster rate than in the prior month. In fact, foreign investors have dumped a vast amount of Chinese assets over the last two years, according to the Atlantic Council.
Persons: Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, PY, Federal Reserve, People's Bank of China, Atlantic Council, Henley, Wealth Locations: China
Indian rupee likely higher, awaits Fed rate decision
  + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
BENGALURU, June 14 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open higher on Wednesday after U.S. inflation data reaffirmed views that the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates unchanged in June. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 82.22-82.24 to the U.S. dollar, compared with 82.3675 in the previous session. Data earlier this month offered a mixed picture of the U.S. labor market, while some Fed officials have called for a pause. Post the CPI data, the odds of a Fed rate hike in June have fallen to 8% from 25% on Tuesday. "We think it will be a hawkish pause as the Fed emphasizes that the hiking cycle might not be done.
Persons: Sonia Cheema Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S ., CPI, DBS, Nasdaq, Brent, Sethuraman NR, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Asia, Bengaluru
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has named former economy chief Mehmet Simsek as his new treasury and finance minister. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday appeared to make a crucial shift regarding the future of his inflation-ridden country's monetary policy. Newly appointed Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek, who previously served as deputy prime minister and finance minister between 2009 and 2018, is widely respected by investors. The president was referring to his opposition to raising interest rates, which he said was not changed. "But upon the thinking of our treasury and finance minister," Erdogan added, "we have accepted that he will take steps swiftly, comfortably with the central bank."
Persons: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Erdogan Locations: Turkey
"Some of our friends should not be mistaken, such as (asking) 'Is our president going for a serious change in interest rate policies?'" "But upon the thinking of our treasury and finance minister, we have accepted that he will take steps swiftly, comfortably with the central bank," Erdogan said. Analysts at leading investment banks now expect Turkey's central bank to start ramping up rates at its monetary policy committee meeting on June 22. Erdogan said he told the new central bank governor about his expectations. "God willing, neither our finance minister nor our central bank governor will embarrass us and I think we will hopefully obtain positive results."
Persons: Erdogan, Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Simsek, Orhan Coskun, Nevzat Devranoglu, Huseyin Hayatsever, Ali Kucukgocmen, Daren Butler, Peter Graff Organizations: stoke, Authorities, Wall Street, Toksabay, Thomson Locations: ANKARA, Azerbaijan, Turkish, Ankara
Why Hong Kong can’t cut loose from the US dollar just yet
  + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +11 min
Hong Kong CNN —Hong Kong’s currency is facing its biggest test since the global financial crisis of 2008. The steep fall is a sign that investors are ditching the Hong Kong dollar. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is committed to keeping the Hong Kong dollar between 7.75 and 7.85 per greenback. People walk past the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) on May 4, 2023, in Hong Kong, China. “Pegging the Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar encourages such transactions to be carried out in Hong Kong and under Hong Kong law, even if neither party is based in Hong Kong.”This helps to create jobs and prosperity in Hong Kong, while also benefiting mainland China.
Persons: Hong, hasn’t, Andy Xie, ” Logan Wright, Bill Ackman’s, Ackman, Wright, Peter Parks, Kong, Deng Xiaoping, Margaret Thatcher, outflows, Chi Lo, Chen Yongnuo, Hong Kong’s, , Richard Cookson ,, Boaz Weinstein, Daniel Fung, Rhodium’s Wright, Xie, Eddie Yue, Banks, John Greenwood, , Greenwood, ” Greenwood Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, British, Hong, Traders, Hong Kong, Bill Ackman’s Pershing, Capital Management, Getty, Lehman Brothers, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, US Federal Reserve, Asia Pacific, BNP, Asset Management, Fed, China News Service, Rubicon Fund Management, Bloomberg, Saba Capital Management, National Security Law, CNN Locations: Hong Kong, United States, China, Hong, Beijing, AFP, Britain, , , Riding
The Tokyo Exchange Group recently finalized its market restructuring rules. Warren Buffett's bullish calls on Japanese equities has also helped boost confidence among foreign investors. It could in turn lead to a domino effect among other Japanese companies once the big players start to make changes. Corporate governance is the "third arrow" of the three core tenets of Abenomics — monetary easing and fiscal stimulus are the other two. Buffett's May disclosures helped spur 10 straight weeks of net foreign purchases of Japanese equities.
Persons: Richard A, Brooks, Oliver Lee, Warren Buffett's bullish, , Yunosuke Ikeda, Nomura's Ikeda, Shinzo Abe, Warren, Berkshire, Asli, Shuntaro Takeuchi, Matthews Asia, Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, that's, Matthews Asia's Takeuchi, We're, Oliver Lee Eastspring, Eastspring's Lee Organizations: Afp, Getty, Nikkei, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Tokyo Exchange Group, CNBC, Tokyo bourse, Berkshire Hathaway, Kyoto, Investing, Buffett, Foreigners, Japan Ministry of Finance, Kyoto University's Graduate School of Management, Graduate School of Economics, Mitsui & Co, Hitachi Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Singapore, Abenomics, San Francisco
MUMBAI, June 13 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open slightly higher on Tuesday ahead of key U.S. inflation data, which analysts reckon may prove instrumental in the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open at around 82.40 to the U.S. dollar compared with 82.43 in the previous session. India's inflation was positive for the rupee "on the margins" and "now let's see how U.S. data plays out", the trader added. The U.S. inflation data is due later in the day, with economists polled by Reuters projecting a 0.4% on-month increase in the core inflation rate. The dollar index was barely changed at near 103.50 while the 2-year U.S. yield dropped to 4.55%.
Persons: Nimesh Vora, Dhanya Ann Thoppil Organizations: U.S, People's Bank of, Reserve Bank of India, Reuters, ANZ, Brent, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, People's Bank of China, U.S
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesChina's lackluster economic recovery since emerging from strict "zero-Covid" lockdowns has caused weaker sentiment toward the country, prompting investors to look for alternative options — like its near neighbors. Higher targets for JapanForeign investors have undoubtedly been key in driving the Japanese market, maintaining the highest levels the Nikkei has seen since 1990. During the same period last year, foreign investors had sold a net 1.73 trillion yen approximately. Wall Street banks including Morgan Stanley and Societe Generale are among those that are optimistic on Japanese stocks, holding "overweight" positions. Upside for Korea tech stocksSouth Korea is another market closely watched as concerns over China's recovery linger.
Persons: Goldman, Andrew Tilton, Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffett, India's, Goldman Sachs, Tilton, Morgan Stanley, ROE, Mike Wilson, we've, Price, Goldman's Tilton, Rhee Chang, Nomura, Chloe Andrieu, Pranjul Bhandari, Bhandari Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Asia, Pacific, Japan Foreign, Nikkei, Japan's Ministry of Finance, Societe Generale, Equity, U.S, UBS Global Wealth, U.S ., UBS, The Bank of, CNBC, Citi, AFP, Afp, Korea Financial Investment Association, South Korean, Fitch, Ben Advisors Locations: Macau, China, Japan, South Korea, India, Goldman Sachs, Berkshire, South, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Wall, Korea, Asia, The Bank of Korea, Fuyang, China's, Anhui, Indonesia
"It is clear that to ensure economic confidence, legal consistency is a must," one of the senior officials said. Deniz Ozen, lawyer for the Turkish Workers' Party MP, said authorities are violating Turkish law by keeping him in jail. Emma Sinclair-Webb, Turkey director of Human Rights Watch, said a discredited justice system is a matter of concern especially for European investors. Reinforcing the apparent U-turn, Erdogan on Friday named Hafize Gaye Erkan as central bank governor, paving the way for interest rate hikes. "No matter the economic reforms, the investment will not significantly ramp up," he said.
Persons: Erdogan, Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Mehmet Gun, Orhan Turan, Turkey's, Osman, Deniz Ozen, Emma Sinclair, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Howard Eissenstat, Burcu Karakas, Jonathan Spicer, Catherine Evans Organizations: Better Justice Association, Istanbul Convention, Gazette, Bank, AK Party, of Human, Human Rights, Turkish Workers ' Party, Finance, St, Lawrence University, Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL, Turkey, Istanbul, Osman Kavala, Kavala, Webb
The fifth consecutive month of positive foreign investor cash flows to emerging markets came despite outflows of $7.2 billion from Chinese debt and a small $100 million inflow to the country's equities, the IIF found. Investor appetite for China has been cooling against a backdrop of disappointing data, deteriorating Sino-U.S. relations and regulatory crack-downs from Beijing that unsettled markets. Overall, investors put $6.9 billion into emerging market equities and $3.5 billion into debt. The bulk of the incoming cash - a total of $16.4 billion - went to Asian emerging markets, with equities in India, Taiwan and Korea drawing large investments. Investors pulled a total of $5.8 billion from emerging markets in Africa and the Middle East.
Persons: Amanda Perobelli LONDON, Jonathan Fortun, Fortun, Libby George, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, Institute of International Finance, Reuters, U.S, Investors, Thomson Locations: Sao Paulo, Brazil, outflows, China, U.S, Beijing, Asian, India, Taiwan, Korea, Africa, Outflows, South Africa
MUMBAI, June 9 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is poised to open higher on Friday, tracking losses on the dollar after a jump in U.S. jobless claims made it more likely that the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising rates next week. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 82.44-82.46 to the U.S. dollar compared with 82.5625 in the previous session. "The data further support market expectation for a pause by the U.S. Fed at its next meeting," OCBC Treasury Research said in a note. The odds of a Fed rate hike at the June 13-14 meeting is now at 1-in-4. 7** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $18.1mln worth of Indian bonds on Jun.
Persons: Nimesh Vora, Nivedita Organizations: Federal, U.S, Reserve Bank of, Fed, Research, Brent, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, U.S, Asia
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBNY Mellon CEO: I am 'struck by' to see how interested European CEOs are at investing in the U.S.Robin Vince, BNY Mellon president and CEO, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Vince's vantage point on deposit flows, the pent-up demand for foreign investors, and more.
Persons: Robin Vince Organizations: BNY Mellon, Mellon Locations: U.S
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