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☆ Key takeaways from the IMF-World Bank meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen arrives for a bilateral meeting on the third day of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meeting, in Marrakech, Morocco, October 11, 2023. Susana Vera | ReutersOvershadowed by fresh Middle East violence and hosted by a country still recovering from an earthquake, the week-long annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank wrapped up on Saturday. Global inflation is seen dropping from 6.9% this year to a still-high 5.8% next. Italian central bank governor Ignazio Visco said there was an impression markets were "reevaluating the term premium" as investors become more nervous about holding longer-term debt. One debt restructuring deal emerged: Zambia finally agreed a debt rework memorandum of understanding with creditors including China and France.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Susana Vera, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Italy —, Ignazio Visco, Joyce Chang, Vitor Gaspar, Mehmet Simsek, Murat Ulgen Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Bank, Reuters, Emerging, Research, HSBC, Export, Import Bank of Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, Moroccan, Israel, Central, United States, China, Italy, Italian, Turkey, Kenya, Zambia, France, Sri Lanka, Import Bank of China

☆ Yellen, China's top central banker talk about debt, economic developments -US Treasury
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen and People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng pose before holding a bilateral meeting on the fifth day of the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, following last month's deadly earthquake, in Marrakech, Morocco, October 13, 2023. REUTERS/Susana Vera Acquire Licensing RightsMARRAKECH, Morocco, Oct 13 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng on Friday held a "substantive and productive" meeting that covered debt, financial architecture and future economic communications, a Treasury spokesperson said. "During the substantive and productive meeting, Secretary Yellen and Governor Pan exchanged views on macroeconomic and financial developments," the spokesperson said in an emailed statement after the meeting on the sidelines of International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in Morocco. "They also discussed the international financial architecture and debt issues, as well as how to make the Financial Working Group co-chaired by Treasury and the PBOC substantive and productive," the spokesperson said, referring to one of two new U.S.-China economic communications groups launched in September. Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by Alex RichardsonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Pan Gongsheng, Susana Vera, Yellen, Pan, David Lawder, Alex Richardson Organizations: People’s Bank of China, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, REUTERS, Rights, . Treasury, People's Bank of China, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, Rights MARRAKECH, China

☆ Why an economic soft landing may prove elusive
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

His latest book, “You Always Hurt the One You Love: Central Banks and the Murder of Capitalism”, won’t make him any friends in monetary policymaking circles. The Fed responded by reducing interest rates to zero and employing various tools to lower bond yields. These economic imbalances prevented central banks from returning interest rates to normal levels. Unless, that is, liberalising economic reforms are enacted that boost productivity and allow interest rates to rise. Bernard Conolly’s book, “You Always Hurt the One You Love: Central Banks and the Murder of Capitalism” was published in hardback in September.

Persons: Bernard Connolly, Connolly, won’t, they’ve, Michael Woodford, ”, Alan Greenspan, staved, Lehman, Edward Chancellor’s “, Bernard Conolly’s, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, European Monetary Union, European Commission, Banks, U.S . Federal, stoke, Lehman Brothers, Fed, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Securities, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States, British, Europe, American, “, ”, disequilibrium, intertemporal, Central

☆ Singapore policy review shift is sign of times
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Anshuman Daga | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The logo of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is pictured at its building in Singapore in this February 21, 2013 file photo. The city-state’s central bank unexpectedly announced on Friday that it would shift to quarterly meetings to assess monetary settings from 2024, switching from biannual reviews. Even though it took local economists by surprise, Singapore’s decision to introduce more frequent monetary policy reviews looked inevitable. Singapore’s unique monetary policy arrangements, and its trade-based economy, made it increasingly hard to use a too-rigid setup. The announcement came after the MAS kept its monetary policy settings unchanged, as expected, and pointed to both upside and downside risks to inflation.

Persons: Edgar Su, Chia Der, it’s, Chia, Lisa Jucca, Thomas Shum Organizations: Monetary Authority of Singapore, Rights, Reuters, Monetary Authority of, Swiss National Bank, People’s Bank of, Singapore, MAS, Ministry of Trade, Industry, Thomson Locations: Singapore, Rights SINGAPORE, Monetary Authority of Singapore, People’s Bank of China, China, United States, Ukraine, Israel

☆ ECB's Stournaras interview with Reuters
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

Member of the ECB governing council and Governor of the Bank of Greece, Yannis Stournaras talks during an interview with Reuters in Athens, Greece, October 11, 2023. The rise in bond yields means that financial conditions are even tighter Than before given monetary policy decisions. A: I think we should act only based on monetary policy reasons and justifications. And for the moment I see no reason why we should tighten monetary policy now because increasing the minimum requirements will imply monetary policy tightening. So, we have a pipeline of monetary policy tightening which has been decided in the past.

Persons: Yannis Stournaras, Louisa Gouliamaki, European Central Bank policymaker Yannis Stournaras, it's, I'm, reinvestments, Francesco Canepa Organizations: Bank of Greece, Reuters, REUTERS, Rights, European Central Bank policymaker, ECB, European Commission, Governing, Thomson Locations: Athens, Greece, Palestine, Russia, Ukraine, Iran, China, Europe, Israel, Italy

☆ More work to do in tackling non-bank risks, says FSB's Knot
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Klaas Knot, chair of the Financial Stability Board, arrives for the G20 leaders' summit in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, November 15, 2022. "Why did we not see these pockets of hidden leverage? That, I think, is still the main target of our work in the NBFI space going forward," Knot said. "In general the massive change in the interest rate environment, so far so good, there has not been any systemic rippling of negative effects into the financial sector," Knot told the Institute of International Finance annual meeting. Meanwhile, AI could have tangible benefits and present some risks to the financial system, he said.

Persons: Klaas, Willy Kurniawan, Klaas Knot, Huw Jones, Alex Richardson, Alexander Smith, Jane Merriman Organizations: Board, REUTERS, UBS Group, Silicon Valley Bank, UBS, Swiss, Credit Suisse, European Central Bank, policymaker, Institute of International Finance, Bank of England, Authority, ECB, Thomson Locations: Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, Silicon, Dutch

☆ Analysis: Canada's Trudeau, far behind in polls, remains the Liberals' best chance
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/3] Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks at the close of the Seventh Assembly of the Global Environment Facility (GEF) in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada August 25, 2023. Right now, most opinion polls show Trudeau significantly trailing his newest rival, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. But none are perceived to be as scrappy and determined at retail politics as Trudeau is, Liberal insiders and pollsters say. No Canadian prime minister since Wilfrid Laurier in 1908 has won four consecutive elections. In 2015, Ekos had the Liberals down 22 percentage points in the spring and Trudeau won a majority in the fall.

Persons: Justin Trudeau, Chris Helgren, Liberal Party's, Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre, Chrystia Freeland, Mark Carney, Wilfrid Laurier, Frank Graves, I'm, HOUDINI, Poilievre, Angus Reid, Shachi Kurl, Darrell Bricker, It's, Ekos, We've, we've, Kurl, Houdini, Steve Scherer, David Ljunggren, Denny Thomas, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Seventh Assembly of, Global Environment, REUTERS, Rights OTTAWA, Canadian, Liberal, Conservative, Conservatives, Liberal Party, Ekos Research, Angus Reid Institute, Liberals, Ipsos Public Affairs, Thomson Locations: Vancouver , British Columbia, Canada, Trudeau's, British Columbia, New Delhi

☆ US stocks rise as investors parse Fed minutes and await September inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks inched higher Wednesday as investors read through the latest Fed minutes. Central bankers remained mostly hawkish on their approach to inflation at the last policy meeting. Central bankers signaled that they would continue to remain cautious on inflation at their last policy meeting, per the latest minutes. Around two-thirds of Fed members predicted one more rate hike before the end of 2023, according to the Fed's dot plot of interest rate expectations. Investors are now looking ahead to the September inflation report, due at 8:30 a.m. on Thursday.

Persons: —, Bill Adams, Adams Organizations: Service, Reserve, Nasdaq, UAW, Comerica Bank, Investors, Dow Jones Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Israel

☆ Global watchdog reveals tensions at heart of Credit Suisse debacle
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Logos of Swiss banks Credit Suisse and UBS are seen before a news conference in Zurich Switzerland, August 30, 2023. The report, however, exposed tensions and conflicts at the heart of a process that ultimately required Switzerland to initially back the emergency rescue of Credit Suisse by rival UBS (UBSG.S) with public money to avert panic. The officials summed up that the "resolution" rules for shutting a collapsing bank without panicking markets could have worked for Credit Suisse, though public money would still likely have been needed. The FSB report sheds new light on events that led to Credit Suisse's downfall. The FSB said Switzerland's action preserved financial stability, even if it raised questions as to why the resolution was not chosen.

Persons: Denis Balibouse, Karin Keller, Sutter, Switzerland's Keller, FINMA, Andrew Bailey, Arturo Bris, Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, Arthur Wilmarth, it’s, Tatiana Bautzer, Elisa Martinuzzi, Stefania Spezzati, Pete Schroeder, Mark Potter, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Credit Suisse, UBS, REUTERS, UBS Group, Swiss, U.S, Bank of England, IMD, Bank, MRV Associates, Banco, George Washington University Law School, Thomson Locations: Zurich Switzerland, Switzerland, Swiss, U.S

☆ Inflation could come roaring back 1970s-style. Here are 4 reasons why markets should be concerned, according to Deutsche Bank.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

There is still a risk inflation expectations spiral out of control, Deutsche Bank warned. Monetary policy has already been tightened dramatically, with the Fed having hiked interest rates 525 basis-points to slow surging prices. Long-term inflation expectations also remain close to the Fed's 2% price target, with 1-year and 5-10 year inflation expectations falling between 2%-4%. AdvertisementAdvertisementEasing monetary policy to aid growth may also be out of the question, given how sticky inflation has proven to be. As inflation inches closer to its target, markets put more pressure on the Fed to slash interest rates, as higher borrowing costs weigh heavily on asset prices.

Persons: — Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Fed, Service Locations: Europe

☆ Treasury-bond rout eases as more Fed officials hint further rate hikes may not be necessary
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bond yields plunged lower Tuesday following comments from Fed officials about a rate hike reprieve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he sees no need for further rate hikes to cool down the economy. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said rising term premiums on bonds may do the job of rate hikes. AdvertisementAdvertisementUS Treasurys rallied Tuesday, taking a breather after a blistering sell-off, as more Federal Reserve officials suggested further rate hikes may not be needed. More than a year and a half of steady rate hikes has brought the fed funds rate to a 22-year high.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Lorie Logan, —, Bostic, Philip Jefferson Organizations: Atlanta Fed, Dallas, Service, Federal Reserve, American Bankers Association, National Association for Business Locations: Israel, Dallas

☆ Bank of England warns U.S. tech stock valuations may be out of whack
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023. Valuations for U.S technology stocks may be too high given the current macroeconomic backdrop and spike in rates, according to the Bank of England. "Given the impact of higher interest rates, and uncertainties associated with inflation and growth, some risky asset valuations appear to be stretched," the BoE's financial policy committee said Tuesday. "Stretched risky asset valuations increase the likelihood of a greater correction in prices if downside risks to growth materialise." To be sure, this isn't the first time that a central bank has warned of valuations over the years, but as a general rule, central bankers would rather not offer an opinion on any specific market price.

Persons: BoE, premia, Ben Bernanke, Lehman, Alan Greenspan, Greenspan's, — CNBC's Scott Schnipper Organizations: Bank of England, Microsoft, Nvidia, Lehman Brothers Locations: City, London, Britain, U.S

☆ The market doesn't know how to gauge the Mideast war — what investors should consider
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The fighting caused an expected rise in U.S. and global oil prices. Reaction in the U.S. bond market, which was closed Monday for Columbus Day, will have to wait another day. The market does not know how to factor in what's happening in the Mideast, Jim Cramer said Monday afternoon. Concern about wider fallout from the Hamas-Israeli conflict is likely to put a floor under oil prices for the time being. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

Persons: Brent, Jim Cramer, Jim, Stocks, Jim Cramer's, Yahel Gazit Organizations: Hamas, West Texas, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Columbus, Ukraine, U.S, Wells, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, AFP, Getty Locations: Israel, U.S, Saudi, United States, Gaza, Iran, Wells Fargo, Tel Aviv

☆ Israel flashes geopolitical warning at shaky time
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( George Hay | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Kingdom’s rulers have historically supported Palestinian rights and opposed Israel, while waging proxy wars against Iran. Indeed, one motivation of the Hamas attacks may have been to provoke an Israeli response that derails those negotiations. At a time when the global economy needs inflationary geopolitical risks to simmer down, more are flashing red. In response, Israeli air strikes hit housing blocks, tunnels, a mosque and homes of Hamas officials in Gaza, killing more than 400 people, Reuters reported. President Joe Biden said on Saturday that Israel had the right to defend itself and issued a warning to Iran and other countries hostile to Israel not to exploit the attacks.

Persons: Benjamin Netanyahu’s, Joe Biden, Netanyahu, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Biden, toughening, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, “, Brent, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Hamas, Iran, Saudi Crown, Sunday, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, United States, China, Israel, Gaza, Iran, Jerusalem, Tehran, Saudi Arabia, U.S, Saudi, Germany, Italy, Britain

"The markets will also be following what the scenarios are looking like," he said, and whether, after decades of instability in the Middle East, this outbreak of violence evolves differently. "The question will be is this iteration something that will throw the long-term equilibrium out of balance?" "The conflict poses a risk of higher oil prices, and risks to both inflation and the growth outlook," said Karim Basta, chief economist at III Capital Management, leaving the Fed to sort out whether higher prices or slower growth is the greater concern. To the extent the Israeli war with Hamas heightens concerns about the global economy it could reverse that trend if capital rushes towards the relative safety of U.S. Treasury bonds, as often happens at times of potential crisis. Reporting by Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Ronen, It’s, Agustin Carstens, Carl Tannenbaum, Karim Basta, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank for International, National Association for Business Economics, Federal Reserve, Northern Trust, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, III Capital Management, Fed, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Gaza, Sderot, Israel, Ukraine, U.S, Morocco, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Gulf, Suez

☆ After buying an oversold market last week, here are 3 things to watch next week
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-07 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Even with a modest bounce Friday, U.S. crude prices fell nearly 9% this week — their worst weekly performance since March. US10Y YTD mountain 10-year Treasury yield year to date performance Here are three major developments to watch in the week ahead. September headline PPI is expected to rise 0.3% month over month and 1.6% year over year. As for CPI, economists are looking for a September headline reading of up 0.3% month over month and 3.6% year over year. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Persons: Dow, —, We'll, Wells Fargo, Banks, we'll, Jamie Dimon, Morgan Stanley, Wells, JPMorgan Chase, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Daniel Acker Organizations: Labor Department, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Companies, CPI, JPMorgan Chase, PepsiCo, Air, DAL, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Commercial Metals, Infosys Tech, SMART, JPMorgan, Citigroup, PNC Financial, PNC, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, BlackRock

☆ The Queen’s question returns with a vengeance
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The world’s leading central banks had spent the previous two decades focusing on low inflation, neglecting risks to financial stability. Central bankers counter correctly that predictive accuracy is not the same as explanatory power. Yet it is far from clear how today’s independent central banks should respond to these overtly political struggles. In 2021, when the Phillips Curve was asleep at the wheel, the growth in the money supply was flashing red. The unfortunate truth is that there are many answers to the Queen’s question this time round – but no single magic solution.

Persons: Elizabeth, Prince Andrew , Duke, York, Prince Philip , Duke of Edinburgh, Tom Nicholson, Queen Elizabeth, Ben Bernanke, don’t, Phillips, Isabella Weber, Guido Lorenzoni, Andrew Bailey, monetarism, Milton Friedman, Anna Schwartz, Winston Churchill, Bernanke, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum 私, 「 Organizations: Westminster Abbey, REUTERS, Reuters, Bank of England, U.S . Federal, Phillips, University of Massachusetts Amherst, University of Chicago, MIT, United, 「 Reuters Locations: Westminster, London, Britain, British, Central, Ukraine, Paris, United States

[1/2] A view shows the entrance of the venue for the upcoming meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, following last month's deadly earthquake, in Marrakech, Morocco October 1, 2023. Reuters GraphicsThe yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond this week pierced 5% for the first time since 2007. Long-term U.S. yields have climbed roughly 1 percentage point in the past three months compared with a single quarter-percentage-point Fed rate hike during that period. Keeping the world's largest economy out of recession provides steadier demand for other countries' exports, as well as more certainty as Fed rate hikes hit a stopping point. The fallout depends on "how much further, and how quickly, bond yields rise," they said.

Persons: Abdelhak, China's, Goldman Sachs, Gene Tannuzzo, Tannuzzo, Karen Dynan, it's, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, REUTERS, Rights, U.S ., Treasuries, Reuters, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Columbia Threadneedle, Harvard University, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Capital Economics, Valley Bank, Thomson Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, U.S, Washington, California

☆ Is China really dumping Treasury bonds and sending yields higher? A former US official explains the mystery
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

China is not actually dumping its stockpile of US bonds, former Treasury official Brad Setser wrote. A large part of China's holdings are not accounted for in official US data, he said. While it has sold some Treasurys, Beijing has also bought up US debt in the form of agency bonds. Agency bonds are issued by government-sponsored enterprises, and some of the top issuers are US-backed firms like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. During 2022 and the first six months of 2023, China purchased over $100 billion agency debt and sold just $40 billion in Treasurys, he estimated.

Persons: Brad Setser, —, Torsten Sløk, Setser, Belgium's, China's, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Organizations: Treasury, Service, Council, Foreign Relations, Apollo, Treasury International Capital, Foreign, Administration of Foreign Exchange, Agency Locations: China, Beijing, Treasurys

☆ Stocks have more room to fall as a recession, credit event lay ahead before the Fed eases policy, Bank of America warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

That's because a recession and credit event could be in store before the Fed eases monetary policy. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementStocks could have more room to fall, as investors face a possible recession and a credit event before the US central bank pulls back on its restrictive monetary policy, according to Bank of America strategists. In other words, the bank sees more turbulence ahead before stock market investors get their long-awaited dovish pivot from the Fed. Meanwhile, fund managers see a credit event as one of the top risks to the market, Bank of America found in a recent survey.

Persons: Stocks, —, Michael Hartnett, Jerome Powell Organizations: Bank of America, Service, New, Fed

☆ Fed's Goolsbee does not see rise in long-term yields imperiling soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reacts as he heads into the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, U.S., August 24, 2023. "On the real side I feel like nothing has happened so far that is convincing evidence that we are off the golden path," Goolsbee said on Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast, recorded on Tuesday and aired on Thursday. Their projections also showed they expect to end next year with only a slightly higher unemployment rate, of 4.1%, and a slightly lower policy rate, of 5.1%. Should the rise in long-term yields go so far as to trigger a surge in unemployment or sharp slowdown in economic activity, the Fed will adjust, Goolsbee said. "We absolutely monitor that and are thinking about that, and that could be a blow to either the financial or the real economy," Goolsbee said.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Ann Saphir, Goolsbee, it's, Chizu Organizations: Chicago Fed, Kansas City, REUTERS, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Goolsbee

☆ Gas prices could fall to $3.25 by Halloween as oil plunges
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —After spiking to alarming levels just last week, oil prices are suddenly in free-fall mode. US oil prices plunged by 5.6% to $84.22 a barrel on Wednesday, marking the biggest one-day decline in a year. Now, gas prices are already starting to retreat and experts predict sharper drops to come. That’s 11 cents below the 2023 peak set last month when gas prices experienced an unusual post-Labor Day jump. Boom to bustSo why did oil prices go from spiking to plunging?

Persons: Andy Lipow, Tom Kloza, Kloza, ” Kloza, “, Joe Brusuelas, ”, Matt Smith, ” Smith, There’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, AAA, Labor, Lipow Oil Associates, CNN, Oil Price Information Service, “, Federal Reserve, RSM, Fed, Saudi, Americas Locations: New York, Saudi Arabia, Kpler, Ukraine

☆ Stocks will be significantly higher by year-end, and high bond yields and inflation aren't as bad as they seem, Fundstrat says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks are still on track to end the year "significantly higher," Fundstrat's Tom Lee said. By year-end, I expect markets to be at a significantly higher level," Lee said in a video to Fundstrat clients on Wednesday. He pointed to higher bond yields and still-high inflation, which have worried investors and helped stoke a recent sell-off in equities. Lower inflation spells good news for the economy and for stocks, as it could nudge the Fed to dial back high interest rates. Central bankers raised interest rates aggressively over the past year and a half to cool off inflation, which weighed heavily on equities last year.

Persons: Stocks, Tom Lee, Lee, —, there's, Brent Organizations: Service, stoke Locations: Greece, Germany

We're buying 75 shares of Oracle (ORCL) at roughly $107.96 each. Following Thursday's trade, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust will own 650 shares of ORCL, increasing its weighting to 2.54% from 2.26%. That's why we are buying more Oracle — bulking up our position size into the stock's recent weakness. Oracle stock pulled back in September after the company missed on quarterly revenue estimates and provided an outlook that failed to live up to lofty expectations. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Persons: Jim Cramer's, Mary Daly, Daly, Safra Catz, Catz, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Oracle, ORCL, San Francisco Fed, Treasury, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Manhattan, New York City

☆ The odds the US will avoid a recession may be dwindling, top economist Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US's chances of avoiding a recession just got smaller, according to Mohamed El-Erian. The New York Fed has priced in a 56% chance of a recession happening by September 2024. AdvertisementAdvertisementThere are two reasons why America's odds of avoiding a recession may be dwindling, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. There is a material risk of this leading to higher inflation for a broader range of goods and services," El-Erian wrote. "While markets are adjusting fast to higher rates, that of the real economy is at much earlier phase with now a much bumpier road ahead."

Persons: Mohamed El, —, Erian, there's, they've Organizations: New York Fed, Service, Allianz, Federal Reserve, Financial, Treasury, West Texas, Energy, of Labor Statistics Locations: El, Brent

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