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☆ Markets are bracing for a 'Powell recession' that could be coming soon
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Markets are essentially saying there will be another man-made economic contraction soon: the 'Powell recession.'" The New York Fed even has a tracker on its site that gauges the possibility of a recession by the three-month/10-year curve. As of the end of November, the inversion level implied a 38% recession chance within 12 months, according to the central bank's methodology. Markets also anticipate the Fed will approve a few more increases, ultimately taking the bottom end of the range to about 5%. Similarly, Wells Fargo economists noted that "Our own yield curve forecast signals turbulent times are ahead, aligning with our expectation for a recession starting next year."

☆ More Foreclosures, Easier Mortgages Would Help Fix America's Housing Market
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-03 | by ( James Rodriguez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +15 min

These standards are based on factors including the borrower's financial stability and the state of the housing market and economy. Finding the right size for the credit box is much easier said than done. A tidal wave of foreclosures followed, plunging the US housing market — and the global economy — into chaos. Even just stabilizing the credit box over time could also help smooth out some of the boom-and-bust cycles that have come to define the housing market. "If we do not address this intrinsic cyclicality, the housing market will continue to experience boom-bust cycles, leaving destruction in their wake," the paper said.

☆ What protests in China may mean for the economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

New York CNN Business —Protests against China’s prolonged and restrictive Covid regulations spread across the country over the weekend. Oil plunged and hit 2022 lows on Monday, while shares of companies that rely on China for production felt the heat. Oil prices dropped sharply, with investors concerned that surging Covid cases and protests in China may sap demand from one of the world’s largest oil consumers. They don’t want to end their covid policy but they also want to ensure that the political unrest doesn’t grow. This week is chock full of important economic data releases, many of which will help guide the Fed’s next interest rate hike decision in December.

☆ Morning Bid: Red alert
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsEuropean markets are likely to take a cue from the wave of red splashed across Asian markets on Monday, while investors will also scrutinise Wednesday's euro zone inflation data to see if the worst of the price surge is behind. While economists at Citi expect headline inflation to post the first decline since mid-2020, driven by falling energy inflation, European Central Bank's top economic thinkers have been sparring on the outlook for inflation and rates. Though U.S. inflation may be close to peaking, euro area price pressures remain strong. Inflation in the euro zone was 10.6% in October, more than five times the ECB's 2% target. The comments come after Switzerland's second-largest bank flagged a hefty loss last week as wealthy clients turn their back on the embattled bank.

☆ 31 stocks that mutual funds are heavily betting on, driving their best-performing year since 2007 according to Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Mutual funds are set to have their best year of outperformance relative to benchmarks since 2007. The report indicates that 56% of large-cap mutual funds outperformed their benchmarks compared to a 36% outperformance rate seen since 2007. Meanwhile, 66% of large-cap value funds outperformed the benchmark Russell 1000 Value index. Below are 31 of the 50 stocks listed in Goldman Sachs' Mutual Fund Overweight Positions basket. The list is based on the investment bank's analysis of 548 large-cap core, growth, and value mutual funds with $2.5 trillion in equity assets.

☆ Gen Zers increasingly fear that homeownership is a hopeless dream
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Kelsey Neubauer | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Gen Z's outlook on homeownership has darkened since 2019 , according to mortgage buyer Freddie Mac. , according to mortgage buyer Freddie Mac. The weight of student debt was among the top complaints fielded by Freddie Mac. Younger Americans are also looking particularly overextended with their credit card debt, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Still, the majority of Gen Z can't seem to get its finances up to snuff, as some numbers bear out.

☆ NY Fed: Bank liquidity may be tighter than thought, with policy implications
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Banks view their daily reserve balance levels as "scarce resource," the paper's authors said, adding "even in the era of large central bank balance sheets, rather than funding payments with abundant reserve balances, we show that outgoing payments remain highly sensitive to incoming payments." "There is still a potential for strategic cash hoarding when reserve balances get sufficiently low," the researchers wrote. Meanwhile, bank reserves are at $3.18 trillion, down about $1 trillion from a year ago. The Fed has expressed confidence it can draw down reserves in a way that will not affect its interest rate target. The paper suggests the way banks are managing liquidity, even in a time of ample liquidity, could challenge that view.

To combat high inflation, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates this year at the fastest clip in 40 years. But analysts warn that high interest rates and potentially unfavorable terms can trip up shoppers, eroding the hoped-for savings. That’s the highest interest rate since the credit card marketplace began tracking it for store cards in 2018. Using credit cards can help build credit. And with fees and rates for new store cards even higher than the current record levels for traditional credit cards, “many people’s financial margin for error is basically zero,” Schulz says.

☆ NY Fed: Consumer debt rises in third quarter on strong demand, high inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

That said, overall mortgage debt during the third quarter rose by $282 billion and hit $11.67 trillion at the end of September, the New York Fed said. The rise in consumer level debt took place in an economy where unemployment was low and consumer demand was high amid the worst levels of inflation seen in 40 years. INFLATION BOOSTS CONSUMER SPENDINGThe New York Fed report said that during the third quarter there was a 15% increase in credit card balances, which was the largest such increase in more than 20 years. The report noted that student loan balances declined slightly during the third quarter and stood at $1.57 trillion. A report from the New York Fed in September said that the president's plan could cancel out just under half a trillion dollars' worth of existing debt.

☆ Global financial giants and the New York Fed are rolling out a digital dollar test run as crypto reels from FTX's crash
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Large global banks are planning to pilot a digital dollar with the New York Fed. The test run will examine how a digital token can help expedite payments. Other firms also listed by the New York Fed include BNY Mellon, PNC Bank, Truist Financial, US Bancorp and TD Bank. All of the firms will participate in the project and use simulated data in a test environment. The test run follows the latest blow to the crypto sector, which was rocked last week by FTX's liquidity crisis and bankruptcy filing.

☆ Banking giants and New York Fed start 12-week digital dollar pilot
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Lananh Nguyen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Global banking giants are starting a 12-week digital dollar pilot with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the participants announced on Tuesday. Citigroup Inc , HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA.L), Mastercard Inc (MA.N) and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) are among the financial companies participating in the experiment alongside the New York Fed's innovation center, they said in a statement. The project, which is called the regulated liability network, will be conducted in a test environment and use simulated data, the New York Fed said. The pilot will test how banks using digital dollar tokens in a common database can help speed up payments. Earlier this month, Michelle Neal, head of the New York Fed's market's group, said it sees promise in using a central bank digital dollar to speed up settlement time in currency markets.

☆ NY Fed: Inflation expectations jump in October on gasoline cost fears
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Central bank officials contend that where the public sees inflation in the future has a strong influence on current inflation readings. Speaking on Nov. 9, New York Fed leader John Williams said “the importance of maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations is a bedrock principle of modern central banking.” He added, “the news is mostly good — longer-run inflation expectations in the United States have remained remarkably stable at levels broadly consistent” with what the Fed wants to see on inflation over the longer run. “so far, inflation expectations seem to be holding a couple of years out, which is critical,” but he also said “the thing with inflation expectations, once they're unanchored, they're gone. Once it goes, it goes.”The rise in inflation expectations seen in the New York Fed report may be linked to change in the outlook for gasoline prices. MIXED OUTLOOK FOR PERSONAL FINANCESThe New York Fed report also found deteriorating expectations for employment, with the report noting “unemployment expectations reached the highest level since April 2020.”Households view of future finances was mixed in October.

☆ Buffett's Berkshire sheds large portion of US Bancorp stake
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

In a regulatory filing, Berkshire said it owned just over 53 million U.S. Bancorp shares, for a 3.6% stake, on Oct. 31, down from 144.7 million shares, or 9.8%, on Dec. 31, 2021. Berkshire began investing in the Minneapolis-based bank in 2006, according to regulatory filings. U.S. Bancorp and Buffett's assistant did not immediately respond to requests for comment after market hours. Berkshire owned $126.5 billion of the iPhone maker's shares on Sept. 30. On Nov. 14, Berkshire is expected in a regulatory filing to disclose more information about its U.S.-listed stock holdings.

Berkshire Hathaway sold a portion of U.S. Bancorp , a bank stock that the conglomerate has held since late 2007, a regulatory filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission showed. The conglomerate reported owning 52.5 million shares of U.S. Bancorp as of Oct. 31, roughly 3.5% of the bank's outstanding shares, the filing showed. The filing indicates that Berkshire has sold 84.9 million shares, currently valued at $3.8 billion. Buffett first bought 23.3 million shares of U.S. Bancorp in the fourth quarter of 2007 . The conglomerate still owned a sizable stake in Bank of New York Mellon at the end of the second quarter.

Nov 9 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams cited the relative stability of longer-run inflation expectations as good news on Wednesday as the U.S. central bank continues to work to get price pressures back to the desired level. So far, hikes in the Fed's target rate range, now standing at between 3.75% and 4%, have not lowered price pressures much back to the 2% official target. Fed officials say they believe that public expectations of price pressures in the future exert a strong influence on where inflation is today. He noted that short-term inflation expectations, which have risen, have been the most reactive to incoming inflation data. Williams also noted that uncertainty over the inflation outlook has risen and there have been some curious developments as well.

☆ Class of 2023 rejoice: Companies are ramping up hiring of new college grads as experienced workers are harder to find amid the labor shortage
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-06 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

The labor market is still tight, but employers are ready to hire from the pool of new college graduates. NACE found that respondents plan to hire 14.7% more 2023 graduates compared to the class of 2022. That's good news for workers, especially recent college graduates. "For instance, in many cases it costs less to hire a recent college graduate compared to a mid-career or senior-level professional." But it noted "only 6% expect to cut back on hiring new college graduates."

☆ No liquidity distress in U.S. bonds: NY Fed economist
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Shankar Ramakrishnan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Nov 4 (Reuters) - Cost of new debt for companies may be at a premium but there is no liquidity distress yet in the U.S. corporate bond markets, said Nina Boyarchenko, head of microfinance studies at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and a developer of the Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI). The index, with historical data dating back to 2005, for U.S. investment grade bonds touched a new two-year high of 0.52 on Oct. 21. That level is just 13 points away from the 0.65 level touched at the height of the COVID-19 crisis when the Fed announced a liquidity backstop for corporate credit markets. CMDI for high-yield bonds, meanwhile, stood at 0.24 versus 0.60 at the height of the COVID crisis. "From the perspective of market functioning, it is not really a sign of distress," she said.

☆ NY Fed official: Digital dollar could speed foreign exchange settlement
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Nov 4 (Reuters) - A top Federal Reserve Bank of New York official said on Friday that the bank sees promise in using a central bank digital dollar to speed up settlement time in foreign exchange markets. Michelle Neal, who is head of the bank's Markets Group, did not say anything involving a central bank digital currency, or CBDC, was imminent. Foreign exchange spot transactions "are critical in the context of cross-border payments, and serve as a building block for longer, more complex transactions," Neal said in the text of remarks to be given before a conference in Singapore. According to the research effort, a Fed digital dollar, used in a wholesale capacity, and the technology to record transactions "results in instant and atomic settlement." The Fed has been exploring for some time how it can launch a fully digital dollar that some have referred to as Fedcoin.

☆ Premarket stocks: Did Jerome Powell just bust the market rally?
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

London CNN Business —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has the power to make or break markets these days. “Essentially, it killed the pivot dreams.”Economic data, particularly for the labor market, still looks relatively strong. “Big advertisers that we traditionally get spend from are not spending this quarter,” Roku (ROKU) CEO Anthony Wood told analysts after the company reported earnings on Wednesday. Ford saw its October US sales slump 10% over the last year as the company continued to battle supply chain difficulties. In March, the company said it would ship some vehicles without some less crucial computer chips and add them later.

☆ Bid deadline for India's Future Retail extended due to low interest -sources
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Nupur Anand | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Oct 21 (Reuters) - The resolution professional for India's debt-laden Future Retail Ltd (FRTL.NS) has extended the deadline for potential buyers to submit their bids for the retailer, due to tepid interest, two banking sources said on Friday. The deadline had ended on Oct. 20, but has been extended to Nov. 3, according to an updated document released by the resolution professional (RP). Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterFuture Retail's RP did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment. Future Group's flagship retail unit, Future Retail was once the country's second-largest retailer but has been in bankruptcy proceedings after it defaulted on loans and its lenders rejected a $3.4 billion sale of its assets to market leader Reliance Industries (RELI.NS). The lead lenders include Bank of India (BOI.NS) and State Bank of India (SBI.NS).

☆ Morning Bid: It's still the economy, stupid
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman DagaJust two months ago, Liz Truss said her government's defining mission would be to revive the economy. That job has become even more tougher for whoever is chosen as the next British PM after Truss was ousted following six chaotic weeks marred by policy shocks. Asian stocks weakened further as the rally in U.S. Treasury yields strengthened on reinforced expectations that persistent labor tightness in the world's biggest economy would force the Fed to keep raising interest rates aggressively, possibly throwing the economy into recession. Two-year Treasury yield hit a 15-year high of 4.623%, while the 10-year also rose to multi-year highs of 4.243%. Meanwhile, European Union leaders ended another debate on the bloc's response to the energy crunch without agreement on whether to cap gas prices.

☆ Goldman Sachs' humbling U-turn on its consumer banking ambitions
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Jeffrey Cane | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Third-quarter results from the big Wall Street banks are now behind us, and they were … pretty good, all things considered? Goldman Sachs reported yesterday, and while it may not be the biggest nor the best bank (OK, No. Trading and dealmaking made the reputation of the 153-year-old Wall Street firm, but the spotlight lately has been on its struggling consumer banking unit, Marcus. The consumer business "doesn't make money at the moment," Solomon acknowledged, but he added: "The deposits are hugely valuable. From Wall Street darlings to prey.

☆ Morgan Stanley gives its favorite buy and sell picks into earnings reports
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A highly anticipated corporate earnings season has just kicked off, and Morgan Stanley has highlighted which stocks to buy — or avoid. Given this backdrop, Morgan Stanley analysts looked for stocks that could experience big swings based on near-term catalysts, some positive and others negative. Morgan Stanley sees upside for Arcutis Biotherapeutics if the biotech company's two phase-two studies for its drug Zoryve are successful. "We would expect significant investor focus on these data sets, and our statistical analysis suggests a high probability-of-success (POS) for both trials," wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Vikram Purohit. Meanwhile, Logitech is one of the stocks Morgan Stanley expects to decline due to negative earnings.

☆ Stock futures rise after Nasdaq notches best day since July
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stock futures rose Monday evening after the Nasdaq Composite posted its best daily performance since July. S&P 500 futures jumped 0.49% and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.55%. The Nasdaq surged 3.43% as tech stocks rebounded, led by names such as Amazon, Meta Platforms and Microsoft. More big bank earnings are on deck. Johnson & Johnson, Netflix and United Airlines will also announce results that day.

☆ Wall St futures higher with focus on earnings
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures: Dow 0.78%, S&P 0.93%, Nasdaq 1.12%Oct 17 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were higher on Monday, after a roller-coaster week, as investors focused on the third-quarter earnings season to assess the impact of decades-high inflation and rising interest rates on corporate profit. Tesla Inc (TSLA.O), Netflix (NFLX.O) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) are also expected to report their results later in the week. Analysts now expect profit for S&P 500 companies to have risen just 3.6% from a year ago, much lower than an 11.1% increase expected at the start of July, according to Refinitiv IBES data. ET, Dow e-minis were up 231 points, or 0.78%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 33.5 points, or 0.93%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 120.75 points, or 1.12%. Investors now await another test for gilts from a new tax proposal due later in the day from Kwarteng's successor Jeremy Hunt.

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