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Mortgage rates tick down ahead of Fed meeting next week
  + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
Washington, DC CNN —Mortgage rates fell slightly this week, staying almost flat ahead of the Federal Reserve’s closely watched interest rate-setting meeting next week. The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. Mortgage applications riseThe downward trend for mortgage rates since November has had a positive impact on home affordability for mortgage borrowers. “Borrower demand, thanks to lower mortgage rates, continues to rise in early 2023,” said Bob Broeksmit, MBA president and CEO.
Retail sales have weakened sharply over the last two months and manufacturing looks to have joined the housing market in recession. While the labor market remains strong, business sentiment continues to sour, which could eventually hurt hiring. According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP growth likely increased at a 2.6% annualized rate last quarter after accelerating at a 3.2% pace in the third quarter. Trade, which accounted for the bulk of GDP growth in the third quarter, was seen either making a small contribution or subtracting from GDP growth. While the labor market thus far has shown remarkable resilience, economists argue that deteriorating business conditions will force companies to slow hiring and lay off workers.
United Wholesale Mortgage became the country's largest originator in 2022. Mortgage rates soared at their fastest rate in decades, halting refinances and slowing home purchases to a crawl. In a way, UWM's strategy is much more old-fashioned than other mortgage players, including Rocket Mortgage. "The idea that you can go on a computer, click a button, and there's your mortgage, that's foolish," he said. To Rocket Mortgage, that's a fundamental misunderstanding of its business.
Did the economy end 2022 with a bang or a whimper?
  + stars: | 2023-01-22 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
But the United States economy still seems to be chugging along just fine after experiencing a hiccup in the first half of 2022. Despite worries about weaker consumer spending during the holidays, economists are forecasting solid growth for the fourth quarter. Yearning for earningsMore blue chip companies will report fourth quarter results (and perhaps give guidance about the first quarter of 2023 and beyond) this week. But according to FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters, earnings for the tech sector are expected to fall nearly 10% in the fourth quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. Verizon (VZ), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Travelers (TRV), 3M (MMM), Boeing (BA), Dow (DOW), Visa (V), Chevron (CVX) and American Express (AXP).
Mortgage rates rose at the beginning of January, but they've decreased over the last couple of weeks. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage refinance rates todayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage calculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 30-year fixed mortgage ratesThe current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.15%, according to Freddie Mac. 15-year fixed mortgage ratesThe average 15-year fixed mortgage rate is 5.28%, a decrease from the prior week, according to Freddie Mac data.
Mortgage rates fall to levels last seen in September
  + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
“As inflation continues to moderate, mortgage rates declined again this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. But mortgage rates dropped in November and December, following data that showed inflation may have finally reached its peak. The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. “While our 2023 forecast anticipates ongoing inflation causing upward pressure on rates, recent favorable data has helped to pull mortgage rates down,” said Xu.
The yield on the 10-year note acts as a benchmark for mortgage rates. Mortgage rates soared to more than 7% last October as the U.S. central bank raised its benchmark policy rate in 2022 at the fastest pace in 40 years. The interest-rate sensitive housing sector has borne the brunt of the Fed's actions, with mortgage rates still almost double where they were one year ago. The respite on mortgage rates attracted more buyers. The MBA's Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, rose 27.9% from a week earlier, the biggest jump since March 2020.
High mortgage rates and home prices have put the housing market into a deep chill. A Bank of America analyst upgraded real estate stock Zillow from "underperform" to a "buy." A dark cloud is hovering over America's housing market with each week bringing signs of doom and gloom. The rosier view wasn't because of an imminent improvement in the housing market. That's hit Zillow — which earns most of its revenue from lead generation for real estate agents — squarely in the pocket.
See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage refinance rates todayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage calculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 30-year fixed mortgage ratesThe current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.33%, according to Freddie Mac. 15-year fixed mortgage ratesThe average 15-year fixed mortgage rate is 5.52%, a decrease from the prior week, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates increased dramatically in 2022, but they've started to trend down somewhat over the past couple of months.
People walk past a Wells Fargo bank on 14th Street on December 20, 2022 in New York City. Wells Fargo shares came under pressure Friday after the bank reported shrinking profits, weighed down by a recent settlement and the need to build up reserves amid a deteriorating economy. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo also said last month that it would have a $2.8 billion after-tax operating loss tied to legal and regulatory costs. After excluding severance costs and a tax gain, Wells Fargo earned 61 cents a share, shy of the 66 cents analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting. As the most mortgage-dependent of the six biggest U.S. banks, Wells Fargo has faced pressure as sales and refinancing activity has fallen steeply amid mortgage rates that have topped 6%.
Washington, DC CNN —Mortgage rates inched down last week, after a slight increase the week before. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.33% in the week ending January 12, down from 6.48% the week before, according to Freddie Mac. But mortgage rates dropped in November and December, following data that showed inflation may have finally reached its peak. The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow.
Reuters GraphicsThe U.S. central bank is already adjusting to one unanticipated set of changes - an outbreak of inflation coupled with stalled growth in the U.S. labor force. "You have to identify the regime change ... Then you have to understand the transition dynamics ... and have a clear vision and insight into all of those ... "Markets calibrated to ... Chinese growth and low interest rates may prove fragile." Like recessions, which are typically identified only well after they have started, other economic turning points aren't always apparent in the moment. But as evidence of that accumulated following the 2007-2009 recession, it was only embodied into Fed policy in 2020 under a new approach that leaned against premature interest rate increases.
watch nowWells Fargo is stepping back from the multi-trillion dollar market for U.S. mortgages amid regulatory pressure and the impact of higher interest rates. It's the latest, and perhaps most significant, strategic shift that CEO Charlie Scharf has undertaken since joining Wells Fargo in late 2019. Following those once-huge mortgage players in slimming down their operations has implications for the U.S. mortgage market. Today, Wells Fargo is the third biggest mortgage lender after Rocket and United Wholesale Mortgage. Wells Fargo employees have speculated for months about changes coming after Scharf telegraphed his intentions several times in the past year.
Here’s what to expect in the housing market this year
  + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
Washington, DC CNN —Last year was a wild ride in the US housing market. So what’s in store for the housing market this year? “Mortgage rates are really critical to the path of the housing market in the year ahead,” said Jeff Tucker, senior economist at Zillow. “Yes, things have cooled way down in the housing market, but we don’t have a glut of homes for sale,” said Tucker. A plain, boring, vanilla year in the housing market would be a wonderful surprise.”
One criteria mortgage lenders use to assess your mortgage application is the debt-to-income ratio (DTI). According to a breakdown from The Mortgage Reports, a good debt-to-income ratio is 43% or less. That's why many common forms of debt — like student loan debt or credit card debt — can be a major barrier to homeownership. For example, Ally Bank doesn't charge certain lender fees such as an application fee, origination fee, processing fee or underwriting fee. This is why they calculate a debt-to-income ratio to judge how much of your income goes toward debt payments.
Houston has been able to keep its housing affordable in large part because of just this, he said. Jeff Tucker, the chief economist at Zillow, also told Insider that the biggest hurdle to affordable housing was "zoning reform." California has already done this when its citizens voted to pass Proposition 46, which provides funding specifically for affordable housing. It allocated just shy of $1 billion to the multifamily sector, according to CCIM, and is expected to see $13 billion in private funds be pushed into affordable housing. In July, Ginnie Mae, a federally-backed mortgage provider, specifically focused on affordable housing, requested that a manufactured home mortgage program be extended.
Double-digit U.S. home price growth streak skids to an end
  + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( Dan Burns | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller national home price index increased by 9.2% in October, down from 10.7% in September and notching the first single-digit gain since November 2020. On a month-over-month basis, S&P Case Shiller's index fell for a fourth straight month, while FHFA's gauge was unchanged. The housing market has suffered the most visible effects of aggressive Fed interest rate hikes that are aimed at curbing high inflation by undercutting demand in the economy. Unlike then, the supply of homes on the market remains extraordinarily limited and should keep a floor under house prices. "As the Fed tightens financial conditions, the housing market will likely slow further in the coming year," LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach said.
Demand for rural homes in Britain dropped as the pandemic trend of relocating to the countryside faded, according to real estate website Zoopla. In the wider Lake District national park area, demand dipped 5% compared to the same period, and in mid-Wales it fell 10%. In April 2020, during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, 46.6% of people in employment did some work from home, according to the Office for National Statistics. The U.K. mortgage market fell into crisis in September following drastic policy shifts by then-Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng. Some market watchers are now predicting a major downturn in the U.K. property market as a result of the country's weakened economy and sticky high inflation rate.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTotal mortgage applications rise 0.9%, led by a surge in refinance demandCNBC's Diana Olick joins 'Squawk Box' with the latest read on the U.S. mortgage market.
Summary Housing starts fall 0.5% in NovemberSingle-family starts drop 4.1%; multi-family up 4.8%Building permits plunge 11.2%; single-family fall 7.1%WASHINGTON, Dec 20 (Reuters) - U.S. single-family homebuilding tumbled to a 2-1/2-year low in November and permits for future construction plunged as higher mortgage rates continued to depress housing market activity. We don't know about the rest of the economy, but the housing market is clearly in recession." Single-family housing starts, which account for the biggest share of homebuilding, dropped 4.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 828,000 units last month. The jump in multi-family housing projects offset some of the drag from single-family housing units, resulting in overall housing starts falling only 0.5% to a rate of 1.427 million units last month. The single-family housing market boomed early in the pandemic as Americans sought bigger properties to accommodate home offices.
Summary Housing starts fall 0.5% in NovemberSingle-family starts drop 4.1%; multi-family up 4.8%Building permits plunge 11.2%; single-family fall 7.1%WASHINGTON, Dec 20 (Reuters) - U.S. single-family homebuilding tumbled to a 2-1/2 year low in November and permits for future construction plunged as higher mortgage rates continued to depress housing market activity. The housing market has borne the brunt of the Federal Reserve's fastest interest rate-hiking cycle since the 1980s as the U.S. central bank wages war against inflation. We don't know about the rest of the economy, but the housing market is clearly in recession." Single-family housing starts, which account for the biggest share of homebuilding, dropped 4.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 828,000 units last month. The jump in multi-family housing projects offset some of the drag from single-family housing units, resulting in overall housing starts falling only 0.5% to a rate of 1.427 million units last month.
Mortgage shocks and re-acceleration of inflation are among the top global risks for markets in 2023. In no particular order, here are Schwab's top five global risks in 2023:1. Central banks overtightenThe Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England last week downsized their latest rate increases to 50 basis points each. "However, major central banks are making it clear they aren't finished, despite stepping down the aggressive pace of rate hikes," said Kleintop. Ukraine war broadensKleintop said investors appear to be pricing expectations of the intensity of the Ukraine war subsiding and perhaps moving towards a negotiated resolution.
Mortgage rates have run up so far and so fast this year that many would-be homebuyers can no longer afford to buy a home. By fall, mortgage rates had more than doubled, eventually topping 7% in October. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. “We have to remember mortgage rates come down much slower than they go up,” said Cohn. “Volatility increases the level of mortgage rates, compared to Treasury rates, because of the prepayment option,” said Chester Spatt, professor of finance at Carnegie Mellon University’s Tepper School of Business.
Higher interest rates are fattening profits from regular banking, while there has been a decline in M&A deals. In both those years, the investment bank made close to 40% of revenue and more than 75% of pre-tax profit. The bank's corporate and retail businesses, meanwhile, stagnated under ultra-low interest rates that lasted longer than expected. Deutsche Bank is under scrutiny for its controls to prevent money laundering, said a person with direct knowledge of the matter. Deutsche Bank has also been under pressure from regulators to rein in its leveraged finance business, where credit is extended to already indebted borrowers.
Mortgage rates drop for fifth week in a row
  + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
Washington, DC CNN —Mortgage rates fell once again this week, dipping for the fifth straight week. But mortgage rates have tumbled in the last several weeks, following data that showed inflation may have finally reached its peak. The rate hike was already factored in to where mortgage rates are, but signaled more good news on inflation. Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds. Mortgage applications tick upFor people looking to buy a home, and homeowners wanting to sell, the retreat in mortgage rates over the past several weeks has been welcome.
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