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The US consumer is starting to crack
  + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
AdvertisementAdvertisementEven as interest rates skyrocketed over the past 18 months, a good job market and strong consumer spending kept the US economy moving. However, there are growing signs that the strength of the US consumer is starting to crack. Earlier this month, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as expected. At the start of the rate increase, borrowers, like existing homeowners, had low mortgage interest rates locked in. Even dollar stores are starting to feel the pressure of more measured spending after initially benefitting from inflation as wealthier people looked for more value.
Persons: , Morgan Stanley, It'll, Jerome Powell, Powell, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, United Auto Workers, National Association of Business Economics, Bank of America, Conference Board, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, Costco Locations: Michigan
[1/5] Migrants wait behind razor wire after crossing the Rio Grande into the United States in Eagle Pass, Texas, U.S., September 28, 2023. Reuters witnessed migrants crossing, sometimes dozens at a time and at times with small children, navigating strong currents to then make their way through the sharp wire put up by the Texas national guard. Once on U.S. soil they waited in the hot sun to turn themselves in to U.S. border officials for processing. Earlier this month nine migrants died as they were trying to cross the river into Eagle Pass. The Department of Homeland Security and Texas state officials did not respond to requests for comments on the crossings in Eagle Pass.
Persons: Brian Snyder, Joe Biden, Biden, Donald Trump, Greg Abbott, Abbott, Jason Owens, Owens, Johendry Chourio, Daniel Becerril, Laura Gottesdiener, Mica Rosenberg, Rosalba O'Brien Organizations: REUTERS, PASS, Texas, Texas Republican, Democrat, Border Patrol, U.S, Department of Homeland Security, Thomson Locations: Rio Grande, United States, Eagle Pass , Texas, U.S, Texas, PIEDRAS NEGRAS, Mexico, Venezuela, America, Eagle, Mexican, Piedras Negras, Eagle Pass, Monterrey, New York
But ICE ultimately only ended contracts with two of the detention centers flagged in the memo. Six of the nine detention centers identified in the August 2022 memo were operated by private companies. U.S. President Joe Biden promised during the 2020 campaign to reform immigration detention and cut out for-profit companies. The lawsuit cites ICE contracting reports that said Torrance staffing shortages impacted safety, security and care. The Biden administration has held more migrants in ICE detention in recent months following the mid-May implementation of stricter asylum rules.
Persons: Ted Hesson, Alejandro Mayorkas, Joe Biden, Biden, There's, Torrance, Jenny Burke, CoreCivic, Brian Todd, Rebecca Sheff, Christopher Ferreira, Kristina Cooke, Mica Rosenberg, Suzanne Goldenberg Organizations: Biden, Immigration, Customs Enforcement, Reuters, ICE, Homeland, U.S, Residential Center, American Civil Liberties Union, ACLU, ICE Processing, GEO Group, Immigration Centers of America, GEO, ICA Locations: Torrance, New Mexico, U.S, Mexico, Albuquerque, Berks, Pennsylvania, Yuba County Jail, California, Yuba, Farmville, Virginia, COVID, Adelanto, San Francisco, New York City
[1/7] A general view of the Torrance County Detention Facility, where migrants are housed, in Estancia, New Mexico, U.S., September 21, 2023. But ICE ultimately only ended contracts with two of the detention centers flagged in the memo. Six of the nine detention centers identified in the August 2022 memo were operated by private companies. The lawsuit cites ICE contracting reports that said Torrance staffing shortages impacted safety, security and care. The Biden administration has held more migrants in ICE detention in recent months following the mid-May implementation of stricter asylum rules.
Persons: Adria Malcolm, Alejandro Mayorkas, Joe Biden, Biden, There's, Torrance, Jenny Burke, CoreCivic, Brian Todd, Rebecca Sheff, Christopher Ferreira, Ted Hesson, Kristina Cooke, Mica Rosenberg, Suzanne Goldenberg Organizations: REUTERS, Adria, Biden, Immigration, Customs Enforcement, Reuters, ICE, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Homeland, U.S, Residential Center, American Civil Liberties Union, ACLU, ICE Processing, GEO Group, Immigration Centers of America, GEO, ICA, Thomson Locations: Torrance, Estancia , New Mexico, U.S, New Mexico, Mexico, Albuquerque, Berks, Pennsylvania, Yuba County Jail, California, Yuba, Farmville, Virginia, COVID, Adelanto, San Francisco, New York City
A former Guantanamo detainee alleges that Ron DeSantis force-fed him while he was on a hunger strike. But Ron DeSantis was a junior officer as a Navy lawyer at the time. An ex-colonel told the New York Times that DeSantis would have been stuck doing grunt work. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Another lawyer told the Times that DeSantis was doing low-level grunt work at the time.
Persons: Ron DeSantis, , DeSantis, Morris Davis, Mansoor Adayfi, Adayfi, Matthew Rosenberg, Carol Rosenberg, Piers Morgan Organizations: New York Times, Service, Guantanamo, US Navy, Air Force, The New York Times, Times Locations: Guantanamo
The school, which says it is "possibly" the most expensive school in the world, costs $165,000 per year to attend. Institut auf dem Rosenberg. Institut auf dem Rosenberg"We work hard to be the best boarding school in Switzerland and the world, rather than the most expensive one," the school states on its official website in response to a frequently asked question about whether Rosenberg is the most expensive school in the world. "Our award winning care, school facilities, enrichment offering and the unmatched choice of academic options are very costly to maintain but we have a deep commitment to provide the very best education for all the students in our care," it continues. The school also mentions that it receives no government subsidies and does not accept donations, and therefore only has a very limited number of scholarship opportunities.
Persons: dem Rosenberg, Rosenberg Organizations: dem Rosenberg, dem Locations: Switzerland
Rosenberg continued: "But it's a false debate because the choice isn't between a soft landing and a recession. Consumers are the lifeblood of the US economy, and if they're forced to cut back on spending, Rosenberg thinks growth would quickly turn negative. Investors nervous about the economy should target stocks in four defensive parts of the market, Rosenberg said: consumer staples, healthcare, telecommunications, and utilities. "As growth is scarce, you want to own what's scarce, so you want to own growth stocks," Rosenberg said. "I'm probably much more bullish on growth than I am on value because value is very cyclical, and growth stocks tend to be valued on a longer-term earnings profile."
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, we've, Rosenberg isn't, hasn't, nonfarm payrolls, that's, Uncle Sam, " Rosenberg, they're, couldn't, he's, he'd Organizations: Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Technology, Fed Locations: YOLO
Rosenberg has never faced the Twins in his eight career appearances. Minnesota (82-72) clinched its third AL Central title in the past five seasons on Friday night with an 8-6 victory over the Angels in the opener of a three-game series. As the team celebrated and posed for pictures on the field afterward, shortstop Kyle Farmer made a vow to the fans. "First, congrats to (the Twins)," Nevin said. "It's really, really impressive what he's doing."
Persons: Sonny Gray, hasn't, Kenny Rosenberg, Phil Nevin, Nevin hadn't, Rosenberg, Pablo Lopez, Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Kyle Farmer, Farmer, Johan Santana, Rocco Baldelli, They're, Logan O'Hoppe, Nolan Schanuel, Zach Neto, Nevin, Schanuel, Alvin Davis, Lopez, Nolan Organizations: American League Central, Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Angels, Angels, New York Yankees, Los, Twins, AL Central, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Seattle Mariners, Thomson Locations: Minneapolis ., Los Angeles, Minnesota, Tampa
"I don't believe in fairy tales, and I don't believe in new eras," Rosenberg said in a recent interview with Insider. The resumption of student loan payments this fall will also cut into spending, Rosenberg predicted. As excess stimulus erodes, the consumer savings rate is sliding. Higher oil and gas prices are also hurting consumers, Rosenberg said. "And they need the money because they're seeing strains on their finances from this 525 basis point runup in rates start to bite into their debt service capacity."
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, they've, Rosenberg doesn't, it's, Louis Organizations: Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, Federal Reserve, of Locations: Saudi Arabia
MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — The Minnesota Twins clinched the AL Central title Friday night with an 8-6 victory over the Los Angeles Angels. Pablo López (11-8) pitched six innings for the Twins, allowing three runs and five hits with seven strikeouts. It’s their 15th trip to the postseason since the Washington Senators moved to Minnesota in 1961 and became the Twins. The Twins have lost 18 straight postseason games, mostly to their postseason nemesis, the New York Yankees. Minnesota hasn’t won a postseason game since 2004, taking the first game of the Division Series 2-0 in New York with Johan Santana on the mound.
Persons: Alex Kirilloff, Rocco Baldelli, Pablo López, Jhoan Duran, Kirilloff’s, Kirilloff, Minnesota hasn’t, Johan Santana, Kyle Farmer, Jorge Polanco, Davis Daniel, José Suarez, Daniel, Mike Trout, Ohtani, Logan O’Hoppe, Luis Arraez, He’s, López, Toronto’s Kevin Gausman, Trout, … LHP Aaron Loup, Royce Lewis, Lewis, Sonny Gray, Gray, York’s Gerrit Cole, LHP Kenny Rosenberg, ___ Organizations: Minnesota Twins, AL Central, Los Angeles Angels, Twins, Minnesota, Target, Washington Senators, The Twins, New York Yankees, Houston Astros, Yankees, Triple, Chicago White Sox, AL Locations: MINNEAPOLIS, Minnesota, New York, Los Angeles, Miami
Trump’s Populist Pivot
  + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Susan Milligan | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +10 min
It's not surprising they're trying to bust out of the 2020 Trump coalition, because the 2020 Trump coalition is not sufficient for him to win. Several polls do show him somewhat improved among Black voters. A Quinnipiac University poll in September, for example, showed Trump with 25% support among Black voters. Abortion could be the most difficult pivot for Trump, since he is upsetting activists on both ends of the debate. There is no doubt in our minds who Donald Trump is and who Donald Trump would be if he were ever to return to the presidency."
Persons: There's, Donald Trump, Trump, Roe, ” Trump, Dobbs, Ron DeSantis, Joe Biden, Simon Rosenberg, Rosenberg, It's, Howard Schweber, Schweber, Biden, Shawn Fain, Mary Kay Henry, Henry, Debbie Dingell, Hillary Clinton's, Biden –, , Clinton, Bill Clinton, didn't, – they're, they've, Trump's, Donald Trump Jr, Adrianne, Ryan Stitzlein, Stitzlein, ” Kristen Waggoner Organizations: GOP, Wade, NBC, Florida Gov, Trump, Democratic, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, United Auto Workers, Big, Republican, Union, Service Employees International Union, UAW, Black, Quinnipiac University, Pew Research Center, New Journey PAC, Supreme, Alliance Defending Locations: America, Wisconsin, Detroit, Michigan, Scranton , Pennsylvania, Shropshire
A military judge ruled on Thursday that a defendant in the Sept. 11 case who was tortured by the C.I.A. was ineligible for a death-penalty trial, adopting a finding that the prisoner was too psychologically damaged to help defend himself. Col. Matthew N. McCall, the judge, disqualified Ramzi bin al-Shibh, 51, from what had been a five-defendant conspiracy case in an 11-page ruling on Thursday evening. Mr. bin al-Shibh was charged as an accomplice in the attacks that killed 2,976 people, and is accused of helping organize a cell of hijackers in Hamburg, Germany, whose leader commandeered Flight No. 11 and flew it into the World Trade Center on Sept. 11, 2001.
Persons: Matthew N, McCall, Ramzi bin al, bin, Shibh, Khalid Shaikh Mohammed Organizations: World Trade Locations: Hamburg, Germany
Ignore the Fed's warning that interest rates may stay higher for longer, David Rosenberg said. The Fed misjudged the dot-com and housing bubbles as well as the inflation spike last year, he said. However, investors should ignore his messaging given the central bank's long history of getting things wrong, David Rosenberg says. Rosenberg was highlighting that, only two years ago, the Fed expected its benchmark interest rate to be under 1% at the end of 2023. The veteran economist has repeatedly sounded the alarm on the delayed impact of raising interest rates.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Jerome Powell, Rosenberg, Powell, Merrill Lynch, Ooops, Lucy, where's Organizations: Fed, Service, Rosenberg Research, North Locations: Wall, Silicon, North American
The number of migrants caught crossing illegally or presenting themselves at legal border crossings has steadily risen after dropping in mid-May when the U.S. rolled out stricter new asylum rules. The increase has strained U.S. cities at the border and further north. Republicans blame Biden for reversing hardline immigration policies of Republican former President Donald Trump, the frontrunner for his party's nomination. To reduce illegal crossings, the Biden administration rolled out a new regulation in May that requires migrants to schedule an appointment to enter at a legal border crossing or face a higher standard for asylum. The administration also has opened other legal ways for migrants to enter the U.S. from abroad.
Persons: Douglas, David, Leon, Luis, Adrees Latif, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Joe Biden, Biden, Donald Trump, Daina Solomon, Ted Hesson, Mica Rosenberg, Aurora Ellis, Daniel Wallis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Customs, Border Protection, Democrat, Republican, Wednesday, Democratic, Thomson Locations: Venezuela, Rio Grande, United States, Mexico, Eagle Pass , Texas, U.S, MEXICO, Washington, Mexico City
Insider is putting together its fourth annual list of the best young talent in real estate. We want to spotlight standouts in the worlds of commercial and residential real estate in 2023. We're looking for standouts, the leaders of tomorrow who are making notable contributions and setting themselves apart from their class in commercial and residential real estate. The nominations are open to professionals working in real estate as well as those in other industries who have a focus on real estate. Please make your submission below or through this form by October 20, 2023 to have your selection considered for the list.
Persons: Zoe Rosenberg Organizations: Service Locations: Wall, Silicon, zrosenberg@insider.com
MLB roundup: O's edge Rays, both punch tickets to postseason
  + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +10 min
With the Texas Rangers losing to the Cleveland Guardians, the Rays locked up their fifth consecutive playoff berth. The Marlins got more good news as Jorge Soler, who leads the team in homers, returned from an oblique injury. Guardians 9, Rangers 2Cleveland erupted for nine runs in the fourth inning, more than enough to beat visiting Texas. Chicago starter Jordan Wicks (3-1) was tagged for three runs and four hits in 4 1/3 innings. Ian Happ had three hits and a run for the Cubs, who have lost five games in a row.
Persons: Adley Rutschman, Reggie Hildred, Cedric Mullins, Ryan O'Hearn's, Jake Diekman, Mullins, Austin Hays, Pete Fairbanks, Jorge Mateo, Adam Frazier, Mateo, Manuel Margot, Chisholm, Jorge Soler, Luis Arraez, Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, Erik Swanson, Daulton Varsho, Garrett Whitlock, Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez, Josh H, Smith, Ezequiel Duran, Jose Quintana, Francisco Alvarez, Daniel Vogelbach, Mark Vientos, Nick Senzel, Christian Encarnacion, Jason Delay, Miguel Andujar, Liover Peguero, David Bednar, Anthony Volpe, DJ LeMahieu, Carlos Rodon, Yordan Alvarez, Jake Meyers, Framber Valdez, Jordan Lyles, Joey Meneses, CJ Abrams, Lane Thomas, scampering, Meneses, Luis Garcia, Brice Turang's, Robert Garcia, Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez, Edouard Julien, Jorge Polanco, Sonny Gray, Gray, Griffin Jax, Emilio Pagan, Andrew Benintendi, Jordan Walker, Louis, Walker's, Seranthony Dominguez, Ryan Helsley, John King, Paul Goldschmidt, Dakota Hudson, Brandon Crawford, J.D, Davis, Mitch Haniger, Thairo Estrada, Joc Pederson, Hunter Goodman, Brenton Doyle, Elias Diaz's, Taylor Rogers, Camilo Doval, Charlie Blackmon, Juan Soto, Bob Melvin's, Soto, Brent Rooker, Ray Kerr, Rooker, Jake Rogers, Miguel Diaz, Joey Wentz, Alex Lange, Randal Grichuk, Kenny Rosenberg, Jason Heyward, Austin Barnes, James Outman, Logan Gilbert, Ketel Marte, Marte, Ryne Nelson, Jordan Wicks, Ian Happ Organizations: Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays, Camden Yards, Orioles, Rays, American League East, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore, Marlins, Braves, Miami, Atlanta, The Marlins, National League, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Toronto, Boston, Rangers, Cleveland, Texas, The Rangers, Astros, AL West ., Mets, Reds, New York, Cincinnati, New, NL, Arizona Diamondbacks, Strand, Pirates, Yankees, Pittsburgh, Royals, Houston, AL West, Nationals, Brewers, Milwaukee, White Sox, Minnesota, Chicago, Cardinals, Phillies, Philadelphia, Giants, Rockies, The Giants, San, Colorado, Padres, Athletics, Oakland, Tigers, Detroit, Dodgers, Mariners, Seattle, The Mariners, Los Angeles, Diamondbacks, Cubs, Arizona, Miami Marlins, Thomson Locations: Baltimore , Maryland, USA, AL West . Texas, New York, Kansas, Washington, Chicago, Francisco, Colorado, Denver, San Francisco, Diego, Los Angeles, Anaheim , Calif, Angeles, Phoenix, Arizona
Legendary economist Gary Shilling says the US economy is headed toward a recession — that is, if we're not already in one. "The Fed wants to make sure they've killed inflation," Shilling said. Shilling, who called the 2008 recession, pointed out that recessions sometimes don't start until the Fed has already begun to cut rates. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisTrusted recession indicators are also signaling that a downturn is coming, Shilling said. The Conference BoardAs a result of the recession, Shilling expects stocks to fall significantly.
Persons: Gary Shilling, we're, It's, Shilling, Merrill Lynch, David Rosenberg, Louis, they're, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Conference, Societe Generale Locations: there's
China's flailing economy could impact the US more than some experts think. That's because the US is a top foreign investor in China, economist David Rosenberg said. China also buys 40% of all exports from Chile, 34% of all exports from Australia, and 32% of all exports from Peru. The economic downfall will weigh negatively on the global economy, primarily through trade channels on countries with a high dependency on China," Rosenberg and Bakiskan said. The commodities trade in particular will feel the effects of China's economic problems, and countries that are top exporters of key metals are exposed, Rosenberg and Bakiskan said.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Atakan, Bakiskan, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, footholds Locations: China, Chile, Australia, Peru, Wall, Silicon, United States, Asia, Beijing
Consumer spending held up the US economy even as many worried about the prospect of a recession. Even as interest rates skyrocketed over the past 18 months, strong consumer spending kept the US economy moving. Higher rates start to biteLet's start with interest rates. Credit-card debt, in contrast, tends to move up and down with interest rates. That COVID cash stockpile helped support the economy despite rising interest rates and historically high inflation.
Persons: Barbie, Taylor Swift, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Morgan Stanley, Janet Yellen, Yellen, John David Rainey, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, We've, Piper, Nancy Lazar, Lazar Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Credit, Federal Reserve Bank of New, CNBC, San Francisco Fed, Walmart, Fox News Digital Locations: Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Ukraine
The U.S. Department of Justice declined to comment and the office of Texas Republican Governor Greg Abbott did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Biden, who is seeking re-election in 2024, has made it a priority to defend DACA, which was created in 2012 under former President Barack Obama when Biden was vice president. Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed Hanen's ruling against DACA, but sent the case back to him for reconsideration in light of Biden's regulation formalizing the program. Some 81% of DACA enrollees are from Mexico, followed by those from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, according to U.S. About 164,000 live in California, which supports the legal efforts to defend the DACA program, while Texas is home to 95,000.
Persons: Dreamer, Joe Biden's, Andrew Hanen, Hanen, Greg Abbott, Thomas Saenz, Biden, Barack Obama, Hanen's, Donald Trump, Ted Hesson, Leslie Adler, Mica Rosenberg, David Gregorio, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Capitol, Republican, Democratic, U.S . Department of Homeland Security, U.S . Department of Justice, Texas Republican, Mexican American Legal Defense, Educational Fund, DACA, Circuit, U.S, Supreme, . Citizenship, Immigration Services, Thomson Locations: Texas, U.S, Washington, United States, Washington , U.S, WASHINGTON, Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, California
Child care 'is a public good'Experts say that systemic change, such as broader parental leave and more public funding for child care, must be involved in order for child care to improve at a larger scale. The national annual cost of child care was about $10,853 for one child in 2022, the organization Child Care Aware of America found. In 2023, 67% of parents reported to spend 20% or more of their household income on child care, Care.com found. Use the benefits you have availableYour workplace may have some options to help you find care, such as backup care providers or on-site child care. Meanwhile, California, Colorado, Hawaii and New Mexico passed laws to provide universal preschool in the past year.
Persons: Lauren Rosenberg, Taryn Morrissey, Morrissey, Care.com, Katherine Gallagher Robbins Organizations: Portland Press Herald, Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, American University, U.S . Department of Labor, D.C, Strong, Society for Human Resource Management, District of Columbia, The National Partnership for Women, Washington, Washington , D.C, National Institute for Early Education Research Locations: Portland , Maine, Hamilton, America, Washington, U.S, California , Colorado , Connecticut, Delaware , Maine , Maryland , Massachusetts, Minnesota , New Jersey , New York , Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington ,, Florida , Iowa , Oklahoma , Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Georgia , Illinois, Maine, New York, , California , Colorado, Hawaii, New Mexico
The S&P 500 is priced for perfection and could plunge 25% if problems crop up, Mike Wilson says. Morgan Stanley's stock chief says the outlook for company earnings and the economy is pretty grim. The benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite have rallied 17% and 33% respectively this year. He suggested a shock to the system of that kind could send the S&P 500 plummeting from nearly 4,500 points today to the low 3,000s — a drop of more than 25%. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn short, Wilson sees very limited upside and material downside to investing in the S&P 500 today.
Persons: Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's, Wilson, Rosenberg, Morgan, China's, Sharp, aren't Organizations: Big Tech, Service, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Wall, Bank of, Nvidia, Microsoft Locations: Wall, Silicon, Bank of Japan
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says she's "feeling very good" about chances of a US soft landing. "I think you'd have to say we're on a path that looks exactly like that," she said, per Bloomberg. Yellen joins Paul Krugman and Larry Summers in suggesting the US will avoid a recession. "I am feeling very good about that prediction," Yellen said on her way home from the G20 summit held in New Delhi, per Bloomberg. "I think you'd have to say we're on a path that looks exactly like that," she said, referring to hopes of a soft landing.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Yellen, Paul Krugman, Larry Summers, It's, Paul Krugman —, , David Rosenberg, Leon Cooperman, Jeremy Grantham Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon, New Delhi
"We've been spending money like drunken sailors around the world, this war in Ukraine is still going on," he said. Dimon joins a chorus of recent voices warning over the strong US economy powered by consumer spending. "We've been spending money like drunken sailors around the world, this war in Ukraine is still going on. Since consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the US economy, any changes to the measure are a big deal. AdvertisementAdvertisementAfter all, the resilience of the US consumer has kept the economy going even amid the Federal Reserve's relentless rate hike cycle since March last year.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, We've, Dimon, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Bloomberg, Wall, JPMorgan Locations: Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The strong consumer spending propping up the US economy may not last, a Bloomberg survey found. Over half of the respondents said they think US personal consumption will shrink in early 2024. High interest rates and a drawdown of pandemic-era savings could hit consumer spending. Since consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the US economy, any changes in the measure are a big deal. AdvertisementAdvertisementMeanwhile, JP Morgan predicted in an August 17 note that the stock market is set to fall as US consumer spending softens.
Persons: Jim Chanos, Anna Wong, James Knightley, David Rosenberg, JP Morgan Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Wall, Bloomberg Economics, ING, Federal Reserve Bank of San Locations: Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
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