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☆ Daines Endorsement Reflects Senate G.O.P.’s Uneasy Alliance With Trump
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Jonathan Swan | Carl Hulse | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON — When Senator Steve Daines, the leader of the Senate Republican campaign arm, quietly informed Senator Mitch McConnell, the minority leader, that he intended to endorse former President Donald J. Trump, Mr. McConnell was fine with the idea. Mr. McConnell, the Kentucky Republican, is not on speaking terms with the former president, having abruptly turned against him after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. Mr. Trump has publicly savaged the senator and repeatedly demeaned his wife with racist statements. But the minority leader, according to a person familiar with his thinking, believed that somebody in the Senate G.O.P. leadership ranks should have a working relationship with the party’s leading presidential contender — and it might as well be the man charged with winning back the Senate majority.

“See, this is the great part,” Mr. McCarthy told reporters who questioned how — if he could barely get his colleagues to elect him — he would ever be able to govern his slim and unruly House Republican majority. Mr. McCarthy is set as early as Wednesday to bring to the floor his proposal to lift the debt ceiling for a year in exchange for spending cuts and policy changes. That includes soliciting “yes” votes from right-wing members who have never before voted to increase the debt ceiling and take pride in that fact. But after late-night wrangling on Tuesday, Mr. McCarthy appeared to have acquiesced at least in part, moving up the imposition of stricter requirements by a year, to 2024. “The last five votes, you’re standing there begging,” Mr. Gingrich said he has told Mr. McCarthy of his own experience with tough bills.

☆ Debt crisis is a scary white swan for US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

If Democrats and Republicans can’t agree to lift the government’s borrowing limit, the country could suffer an unprecedented and catastrophic default on its debt. The standoff over the debt ceiling is a white swan, or an entirely predictable, very frequent event that has the potential to be as catastrophic as its darker sibling. That is why, in all past scuffles over government borrowing, Congress ended up raising or suspending the debt ceiling. Uncertainty over the timing of the agreement led to the most volatile week for financial markets since the 2008 financial crisis. Failure to lift the debt ceiling soon can spark a vicious cycle of market anxiety, rising borrowing costs and bank stress.

☆ Markets are facing a black swan event with 'nowhere to hide' as the latest rally has fueled a bubble that could burst at any time, veteran technical analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Markets are facing a black swan event, according to veteran strategist Jeff Bierman. Bierman pointed to a positive correlation between 5 assets, which is a sign the market is overbought. "This is a witch's brew for the pain trade to the downside," Bierman said in a note on Thursday. This is a black swan event. "Prepare for a bout of volatility," Bierman said of stocks this earnings season.

☆ Heritage Foundation Makes Plans to Staff Next G.O.P. Administration
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Jonathan Swan | Maggie Haberman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

This so-called Project 2025 — part of a $22 million presidential transition operation at a scale never attempted before in conservative politics — is being led by the Heritage Foundation, a group that has been staffing Republican administrations since the Reagan era. Heritage usually compiles its own personnel lists, and spends far less doing so. But for this election, after conservatives and Mr. Trump himself decried what they viewed as terrible staffing decisions made during his administration, more than 50 conservative groups have temporarily set aside rivalries to team up with Heritage on the project, set to start Friday. They have already identified several thousand potential recruits and have set a goal of having up to 20,000 potential administration officials in their database by the end of 2024, according to Kevin Roberts, the president of Heritage. Heritage has contracted the technology company Oracle to build a secure personnel database, Dr. Roberts said.

☆ A real-estate investor who's built a 311-unit portfolio over the last 26 years lays out how new investors can scale up and maximize cash flow in today's market as strategies like home-flipping and BRR
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-16 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

A much better strategy to scale up in today's market is house hacking, Curry said. When Anne Curry started to build her 311-unit portfolio in the late 1990s, she turned to hard money lenders. Curry also said it offers investors to maximize cash flow and the chance to scale up. "Buy something that your mortgage payment is such where you could rent it out for that much, or maybe a little more," she said. The total mortgage payment for the property is about $3,000 per month she said, and he's able to charge $1,800 for the one unit and $900 for the bedroom.

☆ How TikTok became a 'gold mine' for dancers looking to get discovered and changed the way they make money
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Shriya Bhattacharya | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

"This app is a gold mine for artists like me who are still looking for their big break," Dharmapuram said. As TikTok has ascended, popular artists from Dua Lipa to Lizzo have integrated TikTok dances into their promotional strategies and seen their songs go viral. TikTok creators, professional dancers, choreographers, and dance companies who spoke with Insider said the app had changed the way they choreographed, helped them earn more money, and given them access to career opportunities they otherwise wouldn't have had. TikTok has also given dance companies and agents access to talent they otherwise wouldn't have known about. Even dance companies like American Ballet Theatre have gotten on the bandwagon.

☆ How TikTok has changed the dance industry, becoming a 'goldmine' for performers looking for their big breaks and driving choreography that fits the frame
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Shriya Bhattacharya | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

"This app is a goldmine for artists like me who are still looking for their big break," Dharmapuraum said. As TikTok has ascended, popular artists from Dua Lipa to Lizzo have integrated TikTok dances into their promotional strategies and seen their songs go viral. TikTok has also given dance companies and agents access to talent they otherwise wouldn't have known about. Even dance companies like American Ballet Theatre have gotten on the bandwagon. As more people have hopped on TikTok dance trends, creators, especially those of color, have called for proper crediting for choreography, which the app has tried to address with more tools.

☆ Zillow's chief economist explains why the party is over for short-term real-estate investing tactics like house-flipping — and says long-term strategies designed to generate cash flow are an investor'
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

You know, long run mortgage rates are expected to be around five-and-a-half, six." Economists at other real-estate firms share similar views to Olsen's in respect to mortgage rates, at least for the rest of 2023. Plus, when mortgage rates eventually fall, one can refinance into a lower rate, improving an investor's positive cash flow. In the meantime, there's a way that buyers can get around high mortgage rates, Olsen said. Many sellers are offering concessions, like paying for repairs and helping pay for a rate buydown.

☆ Peace, love, and Hitler: How Lex Fridman's podcast became a safe space for the anti-woke tech elite
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( Julia Black | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +26 min

Seemingly overnight, episodes of Fridman's podcast began racking up millions of views. YouTube/Lex FridmanIn his podcast, Fridman asks world-renowned scientists, historians, artists, and engineers a series of wide-eyed questions ("Who is God? But recently, "The Lex Fridman Podcast" has become a haven for a growing — and powerful — sector looking to dismantle years of "wokeness" and cancel culture. Twitter"The Lex Fridman Podcast" offered a rare opportunity to listen to four-hour conversations with luminaries of tech and science. Bhaskar Sunkara, the founder and publisher of the socialist magazine Jacobin who appeared on Fridman's podcast in December, praised Fridman's interviewing style.

The deal represents a doubling down by Ovintiv on the Permian, where exploration in many areas still promises lucrative returns. Ovintiv will pay cash and also use some of its stock as currency for the deal, the sources said. If the negotiations conclude successfully, a deal could be announced as early as this week, the sources said, cautioning that no deal is certain. The deal will boost the percentage of Ovintiv's production coming from oil, at a time of low natural gas prices. The deal comes as EnCap is attempting to raise a new fund focused on investments in oil and gas production, its first since 2017, sources told Reuters in November.

☆ AI experts disown Musk-backed campaign citing their research
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Martin Coulter | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Civil society groups in the U.S. and EU have since pressed lawmakers to rein in OpenAI's research. Among the research cited was "On the Dangers of Stochastic Parrots", a well-known paper co-authored by Margaret Mitchell, who previously oversaw ethical AI research at Google. Her research argued the present-day use of AI systems could influence decision-making in relation to climate change, nuclear war, and other existential threats. Asked to comment on the criticism, FLI's Tegmark said both short-term and long-term risks of AI should be taken seriously. Twitter will soon launch a new fee structure for access to its research data, potentially hindering research on the subject.

☆ Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks is at its lowest since 2021 as investors grapple with the cryptocurrency's narrative shift
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The break became more noticeable in March, as investors rediscovered bitcoin's appeal as alternative banking system as the regional banking crisis unfolded. Bitcoin's correlation with the S & P 500 is now at its lowest since September 2021, after reaching its highest ever in 2022 , according to Coin Metrics. Meanwhile, bitcoin's correlation with gold, a traditionally "risk-off" asset, has risen. This break in correlation is perhaps a sign more investors are waking up to this fact." Bitcoin became more of an institutional asset at the start of 2021 as big investors, short term traders and macro funds jumped into the market.

☆ Bank fears will likely lead to even more market volatility in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Market turbulence could reign supreme once again in the week ahead, as investors worry about the potential for more trouble rippling through the banking system. The broader market was initially under pressure Friday as investors became jittery about Deutsche Bank . "The market is saying: 'You, the Fed, do not appreciate the slowdown that is going to hit us,'" Chandler said. "The market is going to do a lot better and it held onto its gains despite all the things that rocked the market. He added that market concern about banks has risen, and there is concern credit tightening will hurt the economy.

☆ Interest rate decision: What to expect from the Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Christine Romans | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Among the choices, the Fed could continue its aggressive rate-hike campaign to cool inflation that is running at triple the central bank’s target of 2%. Warren — already a critic of the Fed’s inflation fight — leveled further blistering criticism of the Republican Fed chief. In addition to achieving price stability and financial stability, the Fed’s broader mandate includes supervision of individual financial institutions, Leer says, and “that’s where the failure lies. “The Fed needs to secure both price stability and financial stability, something that it has failed to so recently,” he told CNN. And this Fed chief inherited an unprecedented economy.

REUTERS/Marton MonusBUDAPEST, March 20 (Reuters) - After the lights dim in Budapest's magnificent Opera House, Ukrainian ballerina Ganna Muromtseva flutters high with undulating arms in the lead role of Tchaikovsky's Swan Lake ballet. Muromtseva was at the peak of her career at the National Opera of Ukraine when the war rewrote all her plans. Her mother plans a visit to see her in Swan Lake at the end of March, which gives her emotional strength. Though the Hungarian State Opera has hired her for another year and she is happy with her new opportunity, Muromtseva would naturally like to return home one day. "I am waiting for this day, that one day I can dance on Kyiv stage again, but for now I have a contract here."

☆ A day trader who returned 380% in 2022 explains why he's keeping his portfolio entirely in cash right now — and how shorting crypto in the face of a recession could lead to another big windfall
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Mark Szemeszki returned 380% last year by getting into the oil trade and by shorting bitcoin. On a recent podcast, Szemeszki shared the macroeconomic indicators he tracks for his trades. He also explained why he's currently 100% in cash — but why shorting altcoins could soon make sense. But whenever an occasion arises where this correlation inverts, he'll short altcoins as their prices begin to relatively increase. "I always try to position it so even though in the short term I may not be right, in the long term I will be right eventually," he explained.

☆ Looking for the next grey swans
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLooking for the next grey swansEvan Burfield, seed investor and author, joins CNBC's Eamon Javers and the 'CNBC Special: Taking stock' to discuss how to trade or invest ahead of grey swan events, including mineral insecurity and water shortages.

Just when you thought crypto couldn't get any stranger, bitcoin accidentally births a new breed of NFTs. "I think this is really the start of a fundamental shift in what you can do with bitcoin," said Alex Miller, CEO at bitcoin developer network Hiro. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/Nonetheless, bitcoin NFTs have built up a head of steam in a short space of time. Satoshis inscribed with NFTs are involved in about 7% of the total number of bitcoin blockchain transactions, according to Glassnode data. "But NFTs on bitcoin are a distraction from the network's core purpose, which is to serve as a permissionless network that is globally available, 24/7, and uncensorable."

March 14 (Reuters) - Imagine digitally inscribing 3D images of objects such as multi-colored spheres onto a tiny fragment of bitcoin. Just when you thought crypto couldn't get any stranger, bitcoin accidentally births a new breed of NFTs. "I think this is really the start of a fundamental shift in what you can do with bitcoin," said Alex Miller, CEO at bitcoin developer network Hiro. Nonetheless, bitcoin NFTs have built up a head of steam in a short space of time. Satoshis inscribed with NFTs are involved in about 7% of the total number of bitcoin blockchain transactions, according to Glassnode data.

☆ Benchmark's Bill Gurley calls Silicon Valley Bank's collapse 'a black swan event' at SXSW, and casts aside criticism of the move to secure its depositors
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Madeline Renbarger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Benchmark's general partner Bill Gurley defended the decision to cover SVB's depositors. The venture capital veteran spoke briefly about the bank after interviewing Tim Ferriss at SXSW. Gurley called Silicon Valley Bank's collapse a "black swan event." Gurley retweeted US Senator Mitt Romney Sunday night after federal regulators announced that depositors in Silicon Valley Bank would have full access to their cash. Bill Gurley shared his thoughts at the end of a conversation with Tim Ferriss at SXSW.

☆ You’re Already Moving Toward Your Next Career
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Joanne Lipman | Photography David La Spina Esto For The Wall Street Journal | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

More than two-thirds of Americans aren’t feeling engaged with their work, according to a recent Gallup poll, and job unhappiness is at a record high. But how do you figure out what’s next? In the popular imagination, reinvention requires some kind of abrupt transformation or sudden epiphany, a metamorphosis from ugly duckling to swan. Vera Wang from figure skater to bridal designer. It seems unattainable to the rest of us—a big disincentive to even try.

☆ Remember when Gillian Anderson wore this exposed thong on Oscars night?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Jacqui Palumbo | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

When she turned around, her thong was fully visible, rising up from the ultra-low Eduardo Lucero jersey dress. Gillian Anderson's fashion choices for the 2001 Vanity Fair Oscars party have become an iconic early 2000s moment. Anderson told a panel in 2016 that the thong was a last-minute decision, not a planned style choice. But when I put it on, my pubic hairs poked through the dress,” Anderson told the moderator and the audience to raucous laughter. As for the fate of the Eduardo Lucero dress, Anderson donated it to a charity auction (sans thong) to benefit research into the genetic disorder Neurofibromatoses, according to her website.

Persons: Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich, Benjamin Bratt, “, ”, Björk, Gillian Anderson, Eduardo Lucero, Gillian Anderson's, William Conran, wasn’t, Rose McGowan, Halle Berry, Roberts, Valentino, Jennifer Lopez’s, Anderson, I’m, I’d, ” Anderson, Bella Hadid’s, Alexa Demie —, Hailey Bieber, Alexa Demie, Gregg DeGuire, Bieber, Alexander Wang, angiescully ”, Lucero Organizations: CNN, Academy, MTV, Twitter, Yahoo Locations: Paris

☆ Bank of Japan keeps low rates as Kuroda sticks to script at swan song meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

At its two-day meeting that ended on Friday, the BOJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that for the 10-year bond yield around 0%. It also left unchanged a band set around the 10-year yield target that allows the yield to rise up to 0.5%. “The decision to uphold policy rates comes at a cost. Many investors expect the central bank to phase out YCC when Kuroda’s successor, Kazuo Ueda, takes the helm in April. “The BOJ will likely abandon its 10-year bond yield target, while maintaining negative interest rates, to arrest distortions in the yield curve,” he said.

☆ A CIO shares the strategy behind 'The Big Short' garage hedge fund that flipped $110,000 to over $80 million — and explains how to use the same approach in today's stock market to make extremely cheap
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Universa Investments, a "black swan" hedge fund specializing in market shocks, sensationalized this approach after it made headlines in the first quarter of 2020 for a 4,144% return when the stock market plunged. So what we do for investors is our fund serves as protection against that sort of exogenous event, that sort of crash," Sidial said. In short, it's a bet against the odds in exchange for lofty returns, or what's known as convex payouts. However, if there's a market crash, the volatility on the VIX generally outperforms more than any other underlying securities in the US equities market, he noted. For example,Cambria Tail Risk ETF (TAIL) was up 27% from mid-feb to mid-march 2020 during the stock market crash brought about by the pandemic.

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