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☆ Weekly jobless claims fall to lowest level since September
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Minneapolis CNN —Around 204,000 people applied for first-time unemployment benefits last week, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s down from the previous week’s total jobless claims and only slightly below the pre-pandemic weekly average of 218,000. But so far, the labor market appears impervious. “Without mass layoffs, it’s unlikely consumers will stop spending and the economy suffer a downturn.”Economists were expecting 225,000 initial claims, according to a consensus estimate from Refinitiv. Weekly jobless claims are volatile — especially around the holidays — and frequently subject to revision.

☆ Analysis: Chaos in Congress sends an ominous signal to Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —Many on Wall Street cheered last fall when the midterm elections ushered in a return of divided government in Washington. But the historic dysfunction playing out in Congress this week is a reminder that you should be careful what you wish for. Buckle up for debt ceiling brinksmanshipBut lawmakers did not agree to tackle the debt ceiling, the borrowing limit that must be raised to avoid a calamitous US debt default. In the past, brinksmanship over the debt ceiling eventually gave way to a compromise, though often not until significant pressure was applied by business leaders, financial markets — or both. Andrew Frankel, co-president of Stuart Frankel, dismissed the House speaker race as a “big, fat nothing-burger” for the market and said it was “just noise.”“It’s all about the Fed,” Frankel said.

☆ Get ready for a ‘slowcession’ in 2023, Moody’s says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

But Moody’s Analytics says the more likely scenario is a “slowcession,” where growth grinds to a near halt but a full economic downturn is narrowly avoided. “Under almost any scenario, the economy is set to have a difficult 2023,” Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi wrote in a report on Tuesday. Why Moody’s is predicting no recessionIn addition to cooling inflation, Moody’s expressed optimism about the ability of consumers to weather the storm in 2023. “Shoppers are the firewall between an economy in recession and an economy that skirts a downturn,” Zandi wrote. “It is important not to be Pollyannish, but it also important not to convince ourselves that a recession is inevitable,” Zandi wrote.

☆ Recession or soft landing? Five reasons to be cautiously optimistic about 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —Last year was dominated by scary headlines about crushing inflation, super-sized interest rate hikes and mounting recession fears. That’s still low historically and almost exactly where jobless claims were a year ago, long before recession fears emerged. “This is one reason to the be optimistic the economy could skirt a recession,” Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told CNN on Thursday. It’s also the lowest annual inflation rate in nearly a year. The Fed won’t hike to the moonThe Fed’s war on inflation is the reason the risk of a recession is significant.

☆ U.S. Accounting Rule Maker Looks to Advance Projects on Tax, Crypto and Expenses in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( Mark Maurer | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +5 min

The U.S. accounting rule maker in 2022 launched new projects following an agenda consultation with investors and other stakeholders in 2021, its first in five years. The board has at least three core projects—two on disclosure of expenses and one on disclosing income taxes—in 2023, according to Mr. Jones. PREVIEWThe FASB will likely finalize a rule in 2023 requiring public companies to start breaking out big-ticket expenses incurred by their business divisions, Mr. Jones said. Another major project Mr. Jones said might be finalized in 2023 would require companies to provide more tax details. “They have an important role in our economy.”The slowing economy will also be on the FASB’s radar, Mr. Jones said.

☆ Why recession fears are back: Americans are losing faith
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Christine Romans | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The famous British economist John Maynard Keynes coined the phrase “animal spirits” to describe what drives investors, consumers and business leaders. “At the end of the day, a recession is a loss of faith,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. Yellen explained this week that recession risks permanently exist. “There are always risks of a recession,” Yellen told CBS’s “60 Minutes” in an interview that aired on Sunday. Hopefully we don’t lose faith and run for the bunker and go into recession.”— CNN’s Elizabeth Yang contributed to this report.

☆ Dow and S&P 500 updates: Stock market news
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( David Goldman | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —The good vibes on Wall Street are fading fast: US stocks tumbled yet again Friday as investors come to grips with a souring economy. S&P 500 futures fell 1.4%, and Nasdaq Composite futures were 1.1% lower. CNN Business’ Fear and Greed Index, a measure of market sentiment, dipped perilously close to “Fear” Friday. Stocks had been riding high this month on weaker-than-expected inflation and a number of stronger-than-expected reports on the broad economy and the job market. The S&P 500 lost 2.5% and the Nasdaq tumbled 3.2%, their worst days in a month.

☆ Blockchain Fails to Gain Traction in the Enterprise
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Isabelle Bousquette | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +7 min

Newsletter Sign-up WSJ | CIO Journal The Morning Download delivers daily insights and news on business technology from the CIO Journal team. Some companies say they haven’t found a compelling enough reason to use it. Many didn’t have digital record-keeping systems and had to make large upfront investments before they could start using blockchain, Walmart said. Walmart is using blockchain to track leafy greens and green bell peppers. Earlier this year, the state of Jharkhand in eastern India began using blockchain to track seed distributions to farmers.

☆ Inflation cooling is good economic news. It might not feel like it
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Zachary B. Wolf | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Stocks, which had risen on the “inflation is cooling” news Tuesday, were down Wednesday on the “Fed is not convinced” development. GOP leader Kevin McCarthy is trying to find the votes to become speaker, and adding a spending fight to his plate would get messy quickly. But the spending fight loomsNone of the disagreements over spending are going away. Inflation moved the electionThe difference between 7.1% month-over-month inflation and 7.7% inflation in October may not feel like much on the micro level to Americans who are paying 49% more for eggs this year than they were last year. “In the coming decade, they’re going to be fighting hard to get inflation down.”In the meantime, cooling inflation might be praised by policymakers, but it could rub everyone else the wrong way, especially if an economic slowdown starts to feel like a recession.

☆ Premarket stocks: Investors are hoping for the economic tide to turn. The wait may soon be over
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

What’s happening: Price increases in the United States cooled more than economists expected last month, recording the lowest level of growth since last December. This is the second consecutive month of moderating price pressures and could mean the underlying trend of inflation is finally decelerating. That’s a welcome and hopeful sign for consumers, policymakers and investors, said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors. The bill specifically names TikTok and its parent, ByteDance, as social media companies for the purposes of the legislation. In the past two weeks, at least seven states have introduced such measures, including Maryland, South Dakota and Utah.

☆ Inflation is falling. But the days when prices rose just 2% may never return
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Energy prices are pulling back because of fears of a global recession, and the price to ship a container across the ocean has plummeted. In the United States, consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 7.1% in November, the smallest increase since December 2021. Prices rose by 10.7% in the United Kingdom last month, down from 11.1% in October, according to data published Wednesday. But even if this bout of inflation has peaked, economists are warning the world may not return to simpler days when prices barely rose at all. At least for now, supply of critical minerals can’t keep up, which could force prices higher at times.

☆ Shoppers are dipping into savings and going into debt. That could cause a holiday hangover
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

And that would be problematic for an economy that is driven by consumer spending. But the savings rate has come down since, in large part due to the high cost of living. The savings rate fell to just 2.3% in October, according to government statistics released last week. By contrast, the savings rate in 2019 averaged nearly 9%, according to Moody’s. Markowska expects consumer spending to remain solid until layoffs pickup steam, likely during the third quarter of next year.

☆ GE Healthcare Plans to Reduce Debt and Costs, Pursue Tuck-In Acquisitions
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Nina Trentmann | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +5 min

As a stand-alone company, GE Healthcare will also look to improve its working capital and lower logistics costs, Mr. Zodl said. GE Healthcare will also take a look at its real estate holdings and target over 100 sites, executives said. Ratings firms S&P Global Ratings, Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service have all given GE Healthcare an investment-grade rating. PREVIEWApart from reducing debt and costs, GE Healthcare will scout for potential tuck-in acquisition targets, Chief Executive Peter Arduini said. GE retains a 19.9% stake in GE Healthcare.

☆ Brazil, a Bastion of Hydropower, Is Gaining Traction in Wind and Solar
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Paulo Trevisani | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +8 min

The government, meanwhile, welcomes renewables projects as they can generate jobs and extra income for communities plagued by poverty. The wave of solar, wind and other clean-energy projects is expected to take market share from historically predominant hydroelectric generation. Wind and solar power are abundant in areas thousands of miles north of metropolitan centers where it is mostly needed, industry officials said. New solar and wind plants are generally welcomed by environmentalists and can often offer much-needed income to small farms. Of this total, 83% is expected to come from renewable sources, including hydro, solar, wind and others.

☆ Is the worst over for bitcoin and the rest of crypto?
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-04 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

This is not the first crypto winter, as long-term fans of bitcoin can attest. “It is very clear that we as an industry need to build better products,” said Hany Rashwan, CEO of 21.co, a crypto investment firm. That’s about triple where prices were during the depths of the crypto bear market in the early pandemic days of 2020. Others point out that the underlying blockchain technology behind bitcoin and crypto remains solid. Pride and Reynolds added that it’s erroneous to think that bitcoin can hold up well during stock market volatility.

☆ Why Mark Zandi says the US economy will narrowly avoid a recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

That’s why Moody’s Analytics chief economist is increasingly confident that the American economy will — narrowly — escape a recession. None of the financial market indicators suggest we have a recession dead ahead,” Zandi said. Zandi said he wouldn’t argue with those who forecast a recession, conceding it’s going to be a “close” call. S&P reiterated it expects the US economy to fall into recession next year, though it expects a “mild” recession in line with the 1969-1970 downturn. “I bet if we weren’t worried about a recession, the president wouldn’t have been so quick to go to Congress,” Zandi said.

HONG KONG, Nov 30 (Reuters Breakingviews) - President Xi Jinping is wrapping up his massive property stress test, but it looks like few have passed. It was precisely what the now near-collapsed China Evergrande (3333.HK) had asked for back in 2020, before regulators dashed its hopes of listing in the Chinese mainland. Among them is Country Garden (2007.HK), whose U.S. dollar bond that matures in January has rebounded 43% to 96 cents on the dollar this month. In comparison, an Evergrande bond due in January still trades at 5.5 cents. These property bailouts are set to leave most in the sector out in the cold.

☆ Junk-Rated Companies Face Greater Downgrade Risks as Economy Slows
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Mark Maurer | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +6 min

Each of these companies was downgraded by at least one ratings firm in recent weeks. At the same time, the economy has been losing steam, resulting in lower earnings and darkening the outlook for companies, especially in consumer-facing sectors. Credit downgrades can drive up financing costs for companies and cause executives to take additional action such as reducing debt loads. There were 33 S&P downgrades in September, the most in a single month since June 2020. Businesses without immediate refinancing needs, however, tend to see less of a direct impact from credit downgrades.

☆ The Disney CFO Who Raised Concerns About Bob Chapek Has Respect on the Street
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Nina Trentmann | Mark Maurer | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +6 min

Christine McCarthy, Walt Disney Co. ’s longtime finance chief, took an unusual step when she expressed a lack of confidence in the chief executive to directors of the entertainment giant. But Ms. McCarthy had raised concerns to Disney directors, The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this week. Newsletter Sign-up WSJ | CFO Journal The Morning Ledger provides daily news and insights on corporate finance from the CFO Journal team. Following the leadership shake-up, Disney faces a challenge to regain trust from the street and Ms. McCarthy needs to realign with her old and new chief executive Mr. Iger, analysts said. Age 67, Ms. McCarthy is likely to stay on while Mr. Iger reviews Disney’s strategy and searches for another successor to himself, analysts said.

☆ Inflation boosts U.S. household spending by $433 a month, on average, Moody’s finds
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Hourly earnings fell 2.8%, on average, in the year to October after accounting for inflation, according to the BLS. Your personal inflation rate depends on the types of goods and services you buy, and other factors such as geography. The Moody's estimate of inflation's dollar impact analyzes October's annual inflation rate and typical household outlays as outlined by the Consumer Expenditure Survey. "There's no one silver bullet," Joseph Bert, a certified financial planner who serves as chairman and CEO of Certified Financial Group, told CNBC. Joseph Bert certified financial planner and chairman of Certified Financial Group

☆ Latest weekly jobless claims jump to 240,000
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Minneapolis CNN Business —First-time weekly claims for unemployment benefits jumped to 240,000 for the week ended November 19, according to data released Wednesday by the Department of Labor. Alemán said he’s looking for signs of a broad-based increase in claims from other industries, in which workers aren’t typically covered by severance payments. Weekly jobless claims are volatile – especially around the holidays – and frequently revised, economists for Oxford Economics wrote in a note Wednesday. “Therefore, we don’t read too much into the larger-than-anticipated drop in claims,” they wrote. On average, weekly initial jobless claims have been below 215,000 this year.

☆ How Elon Musk’s Twitter Faces Mountain of Debt, Falling Revenue and Surging Costs
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Mark Maurer | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +10 min

Elon Musk says his $44 billion Twitter takeover might result in a bankruptcy filing. To make the deal work, Mr. Musk has been trying to add subscription revenue and reassure advertisers about the platform’s future. What’s more, the company’s debt stack now includes floating-rate debt, meaning that interest costs are set to rise as the Federal Reserve continues to increase interest rates. Twitter’s credit ratings, which were below investment grade before the transaction with Mr. Musk, have deteriorated further. For that, Mr. Musk would need to persuade potential investors that he has a viable long-term business plan, he said.

☆ All eyes on the consumer ahead of Black Friday and the holidays
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-13 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Beyond a slew of retail earnings reports, the government will report retail sales figures for October on Wednesday. But the most recent Consumer Price Index figures for October provided some relief for shoppers…and Wall Street. Consumer spending rose 1.4% during the third quarter, according to the government’s most recent gross domestic product (GDP) report. A report on housing starts and building permits data for October will come out towards the end of this week. When Home Depot reported its most recent earnings in August, it noted that customers didn’t make as many purchases as they did a year ago.

☆ The US spent half a trillion dollars last year alone financing its mountain of debt
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

By 2025 or 2026, the United States may hit a bleak milestone: Federal interest payments could exceed the country’s entire defense budget, according to Moody’s Analytics. The Fed kept interest rates very low to stimulate growth (and encourage inflation) and investors around the world clamored to buy US debt. But White of Moody’s notes that gross interest payments include interest the government pays to itself and said net interest is the more relevant category to watch here. In a best-case scenario, the United States grows its way out of the debt mess, with the economy expanding more rapidly than interest payments. With interest rates going up, the sovereign bond bubble is unwinding,” Boockvar said.

☆ We need the labor market to soften and get wage growth down, says Moody's Zandi
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe need the labor market to soften and get wage growth down, says Moody's ZandiMark Zandi, Moody’s chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the job openings data and how it relates to the U.S. economy or recession, what economic data he would like to see and more.

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