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☆ Oil steady after U.S. debt deal but rate hike worries linger
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

May 29 (Reuters) - Oil prices were steady on Monday after U.S. leaders reached a tentative debt ceiling deal, possibly averting a default in the world's largest economy and oil consumer, but concerns about further interest rate hikes capped gains. Analysts said the provisional deal has taken pressure off the markets, offering a relief rally in risk assets, including crude oil. Still, analysts see any boost in oil prices from the debt deal as short-lived. The U.S. Federal Reserve may still raise interest rates in June, IG's Sydney-based analyst Tony Sycamore said: "Higher U.S. rates are a headwind for crude oil demand," he added. However, comments from Russian oil officials and sources, including Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, indicate the world's third-largest oil producer is leaning towards leaving output unchanged.

Companies Baker Hughes Co FollowMay 29 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Monday after U.S. leaders reached a tentative debt ceiling deal, possibly averting a default in the world's largest economy and oil consumer, although concerns about further interest rate hikes capped gains. Analysts said the provisional deal has taken pressure off the markets, offering a relief rally in risk assets, including crude oil. Analysts see the boost in oil prices from the debt deal as short-lived. "Higher U.S. rates are a headwind for crude oil demand," he added. Future oil output growth in the U.S., the world's biggest producer, also may slow as energy firms cut rigs for a fourth week.

☆ Oil rises after US leaders strike provisional debt deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Florence Tan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Companies Baker Hughes Co FollowSINGAPORE, May 29 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Monday after U.S. leaders reached a tentative debt ceiling deal, possibly averting a default in the world's largest economy and oil consumer, although concerns about further interest rate hikes capped gains. "The tentative debt deal offered a relief rally in risk assets, including crude oil," said Tina Teng, a CMC Markets analyst. Analysts see the boost in oil prices from the debt deal as short-lived. "Higher U.S. rates are a headwind for crude oil demand," he added. Future oil output growth in the U.S., the world's biggest producer, also may slow as energy firms cut rigs for a fourth week.

☆ Oil climbs after US leaders strike provisional debt deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( Florence Tan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Companies Baker Hughes Co FollowSINGAPORE, May 29 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose in early Asian trade on Monday after U.S. leaders reached a tentative debt ceiling deal, possibly averting a default in the world's largest economy and oil consumer. U.S. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Saturday reached an agreement in principle to suspend the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. Both leaders expressed confidence on Sunday that members of the Democratic and Republican parties will vote to support the deal. Last week, Brent and WTI notched a second consecutive weekly gain of more than 1% on the progress of the U.S. debt ceiling talks and after Saudi energy minister warned short-sellers betting oil prices will fall to "watch out" for pain. Investors are watching for China's manufacturing and services data this week as well as U.S. nonfarm payroll data on Friday for signals on economic growth and oil demand.

☆ Oil slips as U.S. debt caution offset supply concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Florence Tan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Companies Baker Hughes Co FollowSINGAPORE, May 22 (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped on Monday as caution around the U.S. debt ceiling talks and concerns about demand recovery in China offset support from lower supplies from Canada and OPEC+ producers. The resumption of U.S. debt ceiling negotiations later on Monday will remain a key driver for crude and risk sentiment this week, IG's Sydney-based analyst Tony Sycamore said. "If the housing market continues to fall and policymakers fail to respond, the risk of a double-dip China slowdown increases, which spells bad news for crude oil consumption and demand," Sycamore said. Last week, both oil benchmarks gained about 2%, their first weekly gain in five, after wildfires shut in large amounts of crude supply in Alberta, Canada. Total exports of crude and oil products from the group plunged by 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) by May 16, JP Morgan said, adding that Russian oil exports will likely fall by late May.

☆ Oil slips as debt talks pause, Fed warns of high inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, U.S., November 22, 2019. Brent and U.S. crude nonetheless notched their first weekly gains in a month, with the both benchmarks rising about 2%. "It doesn't look they are going to get the debt deal done today... the chance of a 25 basis point (rate) increase in the June meeting is rising by the day... Following reports of the paused debt ceiling negotiations and Powell's comments, U.S. stocks, Treasury yields and the dollar all moved lower. Chinese refiners maintained high runs to meet recovering domestic fuel demand and build stockpiles ahead of the summer travel season.

☆ Oil edges lower as debt talks pause, Fed warns of high inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, U.S., November 22, 2019. The less active U.S. crude contract for May , due to expire on Monday, eased 46 cents, or 0.6%, to $71.4. "It doesn't look they are going to get the debt deal done today.., the chances of a 25 basis point (rate hike) increase in the June meeting is rising by the day... Following reports of the debt ceiling negotiations and Powell's comments, U.S. stocks, Treasury yields and the dollar all moved lower. Chinese refiners maintained high runs to meet recovering domestic fuel demand and build stockpiles ahead of the summer travel season.

☆ Oil rebounds on fading risk of US debt default
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Jeslyn Lerh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, U.S., November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant//File PhotoMay 19 (Reuters) - Oil prices rebounded on Friday from losses of more than 1% the previous day as investors turned cautiously optimistic over the fading risk of a U.S. debt default. Sentiment remains mixed as investors juggle optimism over avoidance of a U.S. debt default with inflation data that could portend more interest rate hikes from global central banks. China's oil refinery throughput in April rose 18.9% from a year earlier to the second-highest level on record, data showed earlier this week. Chinese refiners maintained high runs to meet recovering domestic fuel demand and build stockpiles ahead of the summer travel season.

[1/2] The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, U.S., November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant//File PhotoMay 19 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell slightly in early Asian trade on Friday as optimism that a U.S. debt default will be avoided weighed against sticky inflation data that could portend more interest rate hikes from global central banks. A stronger dollar can weigh on oil demand by making the fuel more expensive for holders of other currencies. Also weighing on markets is persistently high inflation data and hawkish comments from global central banks. Japan's core consumer prices rose 3.4% in April from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 97 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $71.86. A stronger dollar can weigh on oil demand by making the fuel more expensive for holders of other currencies. High interest rates boost borrowing costs, which can slow the economy and reduce oil demand. The strength of April U.S. economic data in addition to optimism about the debt ceiling negotiations have strengthened market expectations of a further hike, ANZ Research said in a note on Thursday. Another factor that could reduce oil demand was a fire in Mexico at the Salina Cruz refinery owned by Mexican state oil company Pemex.

Companies Us Fuel International Inc FollowMay 18 (Reuters) - Oil prices eased on Thursday as traders warily watched for signs of progress on talks to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, after surging in the previous session on optimism over U.S. fuel demand. The U.S. dollar held near a seven-week peak on Thursday, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. President Joe Biden and top U.S. congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy on Wednesday underscored their determination to reach a deal soon to raise the federal government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling and avoid an economically catastrophic default. Also weighing on prices was the increased possibility of another interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The strength of April U.S. economic data, in addition to optimism about the debt ceiling negotiations and the health of regional banking stocks overnight have strengthened market expectations of a further hike, ANZ Research said in a note on Thursday.

SummarySummary Companies Biden, McCarthy push forward towards deal on US debt ceilingU.S. rate hike prospect weighs on oil pricesMay 18 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell in early Asian trade on Thursday as traders warily watched for signs of progress on talks to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, after surging nearly 3% in the previous session on optimism over U.S. fuel demand. President Joe Biden and top U.S. congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy on Wednesday underscored their determination to reach a deal soon to raise the federal government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling and avoid an economically catastrophic default. On Thursday, investors were "awaiting further evidence that a deal will happen soon," said Edward Moya, an analyst at OANDA. Also weighing on prices was the increased probability of an interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve. After a months-long standoff, Biden and McCarthy on Tuesday agreed to negotiate directly.

Summary Oil prices lower after climbing nearly 3% in previous sessionUS crude stockpiles soar on SPR release - EIABiden, McCarthy push forward towards deal on US debt ceilingMay 18 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, easing on concerns over plentiful supply after surging nearly 3% during the previous session. Both benchmarks rose nearly 3% on Wednesday on optimism over oil demand and U.S. debt ceiling negotiations. Weighing on prices, U.S. oil inventories jumped unexpectedly last week due to another release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Crude inventories (USOILC=ECI) rose by 5 million barrels in the week to May 12 to 467.6 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 900,000-barrel drop. Investors are watching developments around U.S. debt ceiling negotiations.

Summary U.S. crude stockpiles rise 5 mln bbl -EIAReuters poll forecast 900,000 bbl U.S. crude drawdownIEA predicts demand will outpace supply by 2 mln barrels per dayTOKYO, May 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices settled up about $2 on Wednesday as optimism over oil demand and U.S. debt ceiling negotiations outweighed worries about abundant supply. West Texas Intermediate U.S. crude settled up $1.97 or 2.8% to $72.83. President Joe Biden and top U.S. congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy on Wednesday underscored their determination to reach a deal soon to raise the federal government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling and avoid an economically catastrophic default. The International Energy Agency on Tuesday predicted demand would outpace supply by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second half of the year, with China making up 60% of oil demand growth in 2023. Markets are in a "wait-and-watch mode" over the outcome of the debt ceiling negotiations, said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude edged down 2 cents to $70.84 as of 0222 GMT. "Crude prices remain heavy as energy traders just can't shake off global demand concerns. U.S. crude stockpiles rose by about 3.6 million barrels in the week ended May 12, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures. U.S. government data on crude and product stockpiles is due at 1430 GMT. The U.S. Treasury Department has estimated that the United States will go into a crippling default as early as June 1 if Congress does not lift the debt ceiling.

☆ Oil dips on demand worries after unexpected U.S. crude build
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Katya Golubkova | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Brent crude futures was 29 cents lower, or down by 0.4%, to $74.60 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude edged down by 32 cents, also 0.4% down, to $70.55, as of 0005 GMT. Right now too much oil is still available," Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, said in a note. The U.S. Treasury Department has estimated that the United States will go into a crippling default as early as June 1 if Congress does not lift the debt ceiling. Oil prices fell even as the International Energy Agency raised its forecast for global oil demand this year by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 102 million bpd.

However, an 18.9% year-on-year rise in China's oil refinery throughput in April to the second-highest level on record helped to keep a floor under crude prices. The IEA raised its forecast for global oil demand this year by 200,000 bpd to a record 102 million bpd. It said China's recovery after the lifting of COVID-19 curbs had surpassed expectations, with demand reaching a record 16 million bpd in March. In another bullish development, the U.S. Department of Energy on Monday said it would buy 3 million barrels of crude oil for delivery in August in a move to begin refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Meanwhile, U.S. commercial crude stocks fell by about 1.3 million barrels last week, according to analysts polled by Reuters.

TOKYO, May 16 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a second day on Tuesday, supported by U.S. plans to purchase oil for its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and by raging wildfires in Canada that fuelled supply worries. The U.S. Department of Energy said on Monday it would buy 3 million barrels of crude oil for the SPR for delivery in August, and asked that offers be submitted by May 31. China's oil refinery throughput in April rose 18.9% from a year earlier to the second-highest level on record, data showed on Tuesday. Oil prices on Tuesday also drew support from supply worries stemming from wildfires in Canada. "With so much uncertainty surrounding the macro environment, the lack of any strong signals from the physical market is likely to see oil prices remain under pressure," said ANZ analysts.

TOKYO, May 16 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a second day early on Tuesday, as U.S. plans to purchase oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) lent support while raging wildfires in Canada fuelled supply worries. Brent crude futures rose 31 cents, or 0.4%, to $75.54 a barrel by 0043 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $71.38 a barrel, up 27 cents, or 0.4%. Both benchmarks rose more than 1% on Monday, reversing a 3-session losing streak. The U.S. Department of Energy said on Monday it would buy 3 million barrels of crude oil for the SPR for delivery in August, and asked that offers be submitted by May 31. Oil prices on Tuesday, however, drew support from supply worries stemming from wildfires in Canada.

At least 300,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) production was shut in last week in Alberta. Also supporting oil prices, the U.S. could start repurchasing oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) after completing a congressionally mandated sale in June, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told lawmakers on Thursday. Global crude supplies could also tighten in the second half as OPEC+ - the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia - plan additional output cuts. Fears of a slowdown in the global economy limited gains in oil prices. "If credit conditions ease over the coming months, allaying economic fears for the world's largest economy, oil prices could bounce back without assistance but it seems a little premature at this point," said OANDA analyst Craig Erlam.

☆ Oil prices rise as tight supplies compete with economic concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, May 15 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up on Monday as the prospect of tightening supplies due to OPEC+ production cuts and a resumption in U.S. buying for reserves outweighed concerns about fuel demand in top global oil consumers the United States and China. Still, global crude supplies could tighten in the second half as OPEC+ - the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia - is making additional output cuts that are reducing sour crude volumes. However, Iraq does not expect OPEC+ to make further cuts to oil output at its next meeting on June 4, said its oil minister, Hayan Abdel-Ghani. Meanwhile, flows of northern Iraqi crude oil to Turkey's Ceyhan port have yet to resume following Baghdad's request to restart them last week, industry sources said on Monday, helping keep global supplies tight. The tightening of sanctions will also seek to undermine Russia's future energy production and curb trade that supports the Russian military, the people said.

SINGAPORE, May 15 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Monday as concerns about fuel demand in the top global oil consumers, the United States and China, offset bullish sentiment about tightening supplies from OPEC+ cuts and a resumption in U.S. buying for reserves. Brent crude futures fell 26 cents, or 0.35%, to $73.91 a barrel by 0638 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $69.34 a barrel, down 20 cents, or 0.29%. Investors will scour China's slew of economic data on industrial output, fixed assets investment and retail sales in the week ahead for signs of oil demand improvement, she said. However, Iraq does not expect OPEC+ to make further cuts to oil output at its next meeting in June, said its oil minister, Hayan Abdel-Ghani. 1 crude importers, respectively, have been the key buyers of Russian crude since the European Union embargo started in December.

☆ Oil falls as economic concerns offset prospect of tighter supplies
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Florence Tan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 15 (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped on Monday as concerns about fuel demand at top global oil consumers U.S. and China offset optimism about tightening supplies from any OPEC+ cuts and a resumption in U.S. buying for reserves. Brent crude futures fell 43 cents, or 0.6%, to $73.74 a barrel by 0130 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $69.67 a barrel, down 37 cents, or 0.5%. Investors will scour China's slew of economic data on industrial output, fixed assets investment, and retail sales in the week ahead for signs of oil demand improvement, she added. However, Iraq does not expect OPEC+ to make further cuts to oil output at its next meeting in June, its oil minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani said. 1 crude importers, respectively, have been the key buyers of Russian crude since the European Union embargo started in December.

Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 17 million barrels in the six most important futures and options contracts over the seven days ending on May 9. The combined position was cut to just 285 million barrels (6th percentile for all weeks since 2013) down from 534 million barrels (38th percentile) on April 18. Funds sold the equivalent of 37 billion cubic feet over the seven days to May 9, taking total sales over the most recent three weeks to 206 billion cubic feet. The combined position slipped to 120 billion cubic feet net short (28th percentile for all weeks since 2010) down from 87 billion cubic feet net long (35th percentile) on April 18. The surplus was basically unchanged from +256 billion cubic feet (+15% or +0.60 standard deviations) eight weeks earlier on March 5.

LONDON, May 12 (Reuters) - Global commercial oil inventories were close to their long-term seasonal average at the end of the first quarter of 2023 following massive releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) over the previous 12 months. In the countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), commercial stocks of crude and refined products stood at 2,804 million barrels at the end of March (“Short-Term Energy Outlook”, EIA, May 12). Commercial petroleum inventories had increased by 200 million barrels compared with the same month a year earlier but over the same time the U.S. SPR was depleted by 195 million barrels. The progressive normalisation of inventories took the upward pressure off oil prices and calendar spreads over the past year. Related columns:- Oil market has absorbed surprise production cut by OPEC⁺ (April 26, 2023)- Oil market has fully absorbed impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (March 9, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

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