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☆ Quiet quitting hits the housing market: Tight inventory and still-high mortgage rates keep would-be buyers sidelined
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Today we're talking housing — but before we get to that, the big thing to watch today is President Joe Biden's meeting with congressional leaders. Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesThe housing market seems to be taking a page from the labor market's playbook right now. Daryl Fairweather, Redfin's chief economist took to Twitter last week to describe the sluggish sector:"Homeowners are quiet quitting the housing market." In effect, more and more homeowners are choosing to stay put with their low mortgage rates locked in, rather than trying to finance a new home at rates that are hovering around 20-year highs. That's due mostly to high rates causing homes to sit on the market longer than usual, which leads to accumulating inventory.

☆ Gold holds ground as investors brace for U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A five hundred gram gold bar, left, and a a one kilogram gold bar, produced by Swiss manufacturer Argor Hebaeus SA, in Budapest, Hungary. Gold prices flitted in a narrow range on Tuesday ahead of U.S. inflation data, which investors will scrutinize for clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. If the inflation report comes hot and fans worries of another Fed rate hike in June, gold prices could eventually drop to $1,950-$1,920 level, said Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia Commodities in Mumbai. Besides economic data, market participants are also monitoring developments surrounding the U.S. banking sector and debt ceiling. "If there is news of further stress in the banking sector, we will see gold move towards the $2,100 level," Kedia added.

☆ Gold flat as traders gear up for U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A one-kilogram gold bar sits at Gold Investments Ltd. bullion dealers in this arranged photograph in London, U.K., on Wednesday, July 29, 2020. Gold prices were listless on Monday, as cautious investors awaited a key U.S. inflation data due this week that could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. Bullion prices fell more than 2% on Friday after stronger-than-expected U.S. payrolls data tempered expectations of interest rate cuts from the Fed. Gold would be among the "prime beneficiaries" if there are further signs of weakness in the U.S. economy, if the stars align for gold, prices could move to $2,100 sooner rather than later, Waterer said. On the physical front, China held 66.76 million fine troy ounces of gold at the end of April, up from 66.50 million ounces at end-March.

☆ Banks ask SEC to stop short-seller attacks on their stocks driven by social-media speculation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Ryan Hogg | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A leading banking group called for the SEC to do more to stop speculative short selling in bank stocks. The American Banking Section said social-media speculation about banks was disconnected from their financial reality. "ABA is, however, unalterably opposed to short selling practices that distort the markets through manipulation and abuse," he said. Nichols called for the SEC to take a clearer stance against what he called market manipulation and abusive short selling practices. "The harm caused by short selling that runs counter to economic fundamentals ultimately falls on small investors, who see value destroyed by others' predatory behavior."

May 4 (Reuters) - Canadian lender Toronto-Dominion Bank Group (TD.TO) has called off its deal to acquire First Horizon Corp (FHN.N) for $13.4 billion on Thursday, sending the U.S. bank's shares down 44.5% in premarket trading. As part of the termination, TD will pay $200 million to First Horizon in addition to a $25 million fee reimbursement, the banks said. TD first agreed to buy First Horizon in February last year to expand its presence in the United States. Since then, the lender has acquired New York-based boutique investment bank Cowen Inc for $1.3 billion this year. ORTEX data from early last month showed the second-largest Canadian lender was the world's most shorted banking stock.

In theory, that should be welcome news for stocks and other so-called risk assets, which wilted under the barrage of hikes last year. Yet some investors worry this year's 6.5% rebound in the S&P 500 has made equities expensive. Many are also wary that the Fed's rate hikes may precipitate a recession later this year. Stocks fell on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 ending down 0.7%, after the Fed's latest policy decision in which the central bank also raised rates by 25 basis points, as markets expected. Friday's U.S. employment report and next week's consumer price index data may give investors a sense of how deeply the Fed's rate hikes have seeped into the economy.

The path to the pause will roll out in marquee monthly data on the key topics of jobs and prices, but also weekly series tracking emerging concerns about the financial industry. Here's a guide to what's ahead:JOBS: Next release May 5The data calendar will let the Fed receive two monthly jobs reports, covering April and May, before its June 13-14 policy meeting. For the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the measure used to set the Fed's 2% inflation target, only the April report will be available. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsFEDSPEAK: OngoingThe Fed's internal communications rules set a "blackout" period around each policy meeting. The curtain of silence around the May meeting lifts on Friday, May 5, and Fed officials can speak publicly about their views through Friday, June 2.

☆ Factbox: Short sellers rake in $1.2 bln in profits as US regional bank stocks suffer
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

May 3 (Reuters) - Short sellers have pocketed $1.2 billion in paper profits betting against U.S. regional lenders in the first two days of May, analytics firm Ortex said, as the third major regional bank failure in two months sparked a selloff in the sector. U.S. regulators seized First Republic Bank and sold most of its assets to JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) on Monday in a $10.6 billion deal. Here is a list of companies that generated the most profits for short sellers on May 1 and May 2:Source: Ortex dataCompiled by Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Edited by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Here's what history indicates is in store for U.S. and global stocks in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

On the other hand, May hasn't been such a sure performer historically, according to CNBC Pro's analysis of S & P 500 index data on FactSet dating back to 1928. On average, stocks have risen in May 56 out of the 95 years, or about 60% of the time. The losses are more severe at 4.7% when there are negative returns in May. The chart below shows month-on-month performance of the S & P 500 over the past 20 years. For the second quarter as a whole, the direction of travel for the S & P 500 was less clear .

SummarySummary Companies Silver, platinum, palladium set for monthly gainDollar eyes monthly fallApril 28 (Reuters) - Gold prices eased on Friday as the dollar firmed in the run up to U.S. inflation data, but economic jitters kept safe-haven bullion on course for a second consecutive monthly rise. Spot gold edged 0.2% lower to $1,983.01 per ounce by 0915 GMT, but was up 0.8% for the month. But "a sudden deterioration in the bank sector crisis could trigger a rush to safe-havens likely to see gold prices soar above previous records," Evangelista added. A weaker dollar makes bullion more affordable for overseas buyers. Silver fell 0.5% to $24.82, platinum shed 1% to $1,066.57, while palladium was flat at $1,495.13 -- all headed for monthly gain.

☆ Inflation is still 'the problem' for the Fed, says Stifel's Lindsey Piegza
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation is still 'the problem' for the Fed, says Stifel's Lindsey PiegzaLindsey Piegza, Stifel chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest personal consumption expenditures price index data, a key inflation gauge, and more.

☆ UPS and FedEx are shrinking as packages evaporate. Automation could make the changes permanent.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Emma Cosgrove | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Revenue in the first quarter was down 6% and package volume was down by 5.4%. Both UPS and FedEx are downshifting and planning futures with smaller, more efficient networks. But beyond initial cuts, UPS and FedEx are leaning into technology upgrades to shrink strategically and emerge from the doldrums more efficient. The company has already begun the combination of Ground and Express, which will involve closing Express facilities and moving those operations into nearby Ground buildings. These networks have long acted as a moat around UPS and FedEx — making entering the delivery space so expensive it was rarely attempted.

REUTERS/Leah MillisWASHINGTON, April 26 (Reuters) - Incumbent President Joe Biden entered the 2024 election race on Tuesday with something he didn't have two-and-a-half years ago: a record in the White House. Critics also say that increased federal spending under Biden, including $750 million on climate change and tax breaks, also drove inflation higher. Biden may have worse cards in 2024, with unemployment likely to rise as growth slows, interest rates remaining high and inflation holding above pre-pandemic levels. Biden also dismissed the sentences of thousands of people with federal offenses for simple marijuana possession, a disproportionately non-white group. The Biden administration also has faced scrutiny over its handling of record numbers of unaccompanied children crossing the U.S.-Mexico border illegally.

☆ Opinion | Which Inflation Measures Matter?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Of course, if you have been following this discussion, you have indeed heard this before. Clarity in the inflation discussion has been very hard to come by, even if you ignore the people filling my inbox with declarations that the dollar is doomed and that hyperinflation is just around the corner. I’ve compared debates among economists over each new trove of inflation data to ancient Roman priests seeking auguries in the entrails of sacrificed animals, a remark that, oddly, doesn’t seem to have won me many friends among my colleagues. It’s also disturbing that many economists always seem to come down on the same side of these debates: Optimists are always optimistic, pessimists always pessimistic. So I thought I’d devote today’s newsletter to a probably doomed attempt to bring some clarity to this discussion.

☆ Morning Bid: Purchasing managers of the world, diverge
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Softening second-tier data in the U.S. on Thursday put a bid under bonds for the first time in a few weeks, while bitcoin was clobbered. Purchasing manager's index data are the next set of economic figures due as market focus flings back on growth. British (GBPMMF=ECI) and euro zone (EUPMMF=ECI) manufacturing surveys are seen stuck in contraction territory. European and British services PMIs are seen steady and staying in expansion mode. British retail sales are expected to fall, adding up to a somewhat confounding picture.

☆ Gold prices ease with Fed rate trajectory in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold was down 0.1% at $2,001.75 per ounce, as of 0342 GMT, after rising 1% on Thursday. Gold prices have been moderating in the absence of real incoming news flow and "we really need to see some bigger pieces of information to give it that directional conviction", said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive. "Gold pushed back above $2,000/oz as the weaker economic outlook is enticing safe-haven buying," ANZ said in a note. Rate hikes raise the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold. Spot silver dipped 0.3% to $25.22 per ounce, while platinum was flat at $1,093.33 and palladium rose 0.5% to $1,594.26.

☆ Short positions on Canada's TD Bank rise to $6.1 billion, ORTEX data shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Maiya Keidan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TORONTO, April 19 (Reuters) - Hedge fund bets against Canada's TD Bank Group (TD.TO) hit $6.1 billion on Wednesday, a 45% increase from 14 days ago, according to data provider ORTEX's calculations, one day ahead of the Canadian lender's annual general meeting. So-called 'arbitrage investors', many of which are event-driven hedge funds, bet on mergers and acquisitions by buying shares of the target and shorting the acquirer's stock. TD, which is awaiting regulatory approval of its takeover of First Horizon, is expected to address the $13.4 billion deal at its AGM on Thursday in Toronto. Hedge funds profit when they borrow a stock from an institutional investor and sell it back when the price falls, pocketing the difference, a practice known as short-selling. TD shares are down 0.1% since the U.S. regional banking crisis began, and up 3.4% this week.

☆ Ultrarunner disqualified from race after using a car to complete part of the course
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( George Ramsay | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

CNN —Scottish ultramarathon runner Joasia Zakrzewski has been disqualified from a 50-mile race after traveling in a car for a section of the course. The 47-year-old Zakrzewski told the BBC she made a “massive error” in accepting the third-place trophy and “should have handed it back,” adding that she was “tired and jetlagged and felt sick” during the race having arrived from Australia the night before. Her friend and fellow runner, Adrian Stott, said he wasn’t able to offer further comment on the event. “I would never purposefully cheat and this was not a target race, but I don’t want to make excuses. UK Athletics said it was aware of the incident and that it would likely be managed at a national governing body level.

That's good news for struggling consumers, but doesn't tell the whole story of how much more Americans are spending due to rising prices. In that time, the cost of essentials like groceries, utilities and gas increased by 20% or more. The cost of groceries is up by almost 20%Since April 2021, the cost of food prepared at home has risen by almost 20%. Margarine prices increased by 54%, largely due to the war in Ukraine, which is the world's No. Relatedly, milk and bread production have also been affected by the conflict in Ukraine, with prices rising 19% and 21%, respectively.

☆ 35 Ways Real People Are Using A.I. Right Now
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Francesca Paris | Larry Buchanan | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +24 min

People are using ChatGPT and other A.I. Here’s how 35 real people are using A.I for work, life, play and procrastination. People are using A.I to …Plan gardens. Chris Norn Researcher at the University of Washington Two years ago researchers cracked the code on using A.I. When you run a Dungeons & Dragons game, Mr. Green says, you have to be creative, but that almost always means pulling from existing fantasy literature.

☆ Stock Market Today: Dow Futures Creep Higher
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Stock futures are edging higher. Today, investors may view the producer-price index with an eye to the Federal Reserve's potential path for interest rates. This follows yesterday's consumer-price index data that showed inflation eased in March. Join us: The Journal is hosting a live Q&A on the bull and bear cases for Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Exchange-Traded Fund at 11 a.m. Tune in, and submit questions, here.

☆ IMF's fiscal chief says U.S. CPI data shows need to maintain inflation fight
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

WASHINGTON, April 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. Consumer Price Index data for March shows persistent above-target inflation pressures, "validating" the International Monetary Fund's emphasis on continuing to fight inflation at IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings this week, IMF Fiscal Affairs Director Vitor Gaspar said. Gaspar told a news conference that fiscal tightening could help remove upward pressures on interest rates by helping reduce fiscal demand and added that he saw little chance of a broad sovereign debt crisis in coming years. Reporting by David LawderOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Another quarter-point increase is expected, but policymakers have also said they are watching banking data closely for signs of stress or a larger-than-anticipated drop in lending. The minutes "will likely express confidence in the separability of price stability and financial stability." Still, the events on that March 10 weekend added new complexity to a Fed policy debate that had been singlemindedly focused on lowering inflation from levels that last year were more than triple the Fed's 2% target. New consumer price index data released Wednesday is expected to show headline inflation falling, but with a still-high level of underlying or "core" inflation likely to concern Fed policymakers. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Series I bond rate expected to fall to below 4% in May, experts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Kate Dore | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

But rates have been falling and the yield will decline again in May, experts say. Annual inflation rose by 5% in March, down from 6% in February, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The annual rate may drop below 4%Based on inflation data from the past six months, Tumin says the variable portion of the I bond rate could drop to 3.38% in May. If the fixed rate remains at 0.4%, the new annual rate may drop to 3.79%, Tumin said. Of course, the combined annual yield is only an estimate until TreasuryDirect announces new rates in May.

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