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Dollar bulls suffer setback as traders add to Fed cut bets
  + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The U.S. dollar fell from two-month highs hit overnight versus its major peers after signs of weakness in the labor market boosted the case for quicker Federal Reserve rate cuts. Bets for a quarter-point Fed rate cut on Nov. 7 increased to 83.3% from 80.3% a day earlier, with the remaining odds for policy to stay steady, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. A week earlier, there was a 32.1% chance of a half-point reduction and 67.9% probability of a quarter-point cut. The dollar added 0.06% to 148.68 yen , inching back towards Thursday's high of 149.58 yen, a level previously not seen since Aug. 2. The Australian dollar held firm at $0.67395 after rebounding from its lowest since Sept. 16 at $0.6702 on Thursday.
Persons: Tapas Strickland, Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic Organizations: U.S, Treasury, National Australia Bank, Fed, Chicago Fed, Atlanta Fed Locations: China
Chinese stocks are poised for a huge run-up in the next year, according to Renaissance Macro's Jeff deGraaf. Other notable investors have been looking to buy the dip in Chinese stocks amid continued stimulus efforts. Other traders on Wall Street have shown interest in buying the dip in Chinese equities, despite fear that Beijing's economic slowdown could stick around. Other strategists on Wall Street have made bullish calls on Chinese equities in recent weeks, with eyes on continued stimulus measures in Beijing. Goldman Sachs predicted China's stock market could rally another 20%, thanks to "more substantial policy measures" and Chinese stocks being oversold, strategists said in a note.
Persons: Jeff deGraaf, , deGraaf, Beijing didn't, Mario Draghi, Michael Hartnett, Yuan Wei, Yuan, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Macro, CSI, Bloomberg, Beijing, Investors, Bank of America, Investment Fund Management Co Locations: , Beijing, China, Wall, Shenzhen, Hong Kong
With all eyes on China right now, one fund manager is bullish on the country regardless of any "bazooka" stimulus measures, saying investors should be getting involved. Starting on Sept. 24, China announced a string of stimulus measures aimed at boosting China's economy . Stephen Roach, for example, former chief economist at Morgan Stanley, warned investors against being too swept up in the China market rally . 'Starting point' For those looking to invest in China, Glass said a good "starting point" was Midea Group , which makes appliances and industrial robots. Analysts' average price target is 4.49 Hong Kong dollars, which gives the stock almost 30% potential downside from its current price around 6.40 Hong Kong dollars.
Persons: Steven Glass, Glass, hasn't, CNBC's, Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley, Midea Organizations: Sydney, Pella Funds, Investors, National Development, CSI, HSBC, Generations Fund, Midea Group, China Equity, Hong, Garden Services Holdings Locations: China, Pella, Hong Kong, Shenzhen, U.S, Hong
China's Ministry of Finance, pictured here in Beijing in 2021, is refunding taxes and cutting fees to support economic growth. China's Finance Minister Lan Fo'an is set to hold a press conference at 10 a.m. on Saturday local time on "intensifying" fiscal stimulus policies, the country's State Council Information Office said. Authorities are likely to affirm that at the press conference on Saturday, Zhao said. At the time, Chinese major indexes began to rally, surging over 25% as investors cheered on the slate of stimulus measures. Lan Fo'an, China's Minister of Finance, attends a press conference during the second session of the 14th National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing on March 6, 2024.
Persons: Cong, Lan Fo'an, NDRC, Zheng Shanjie, Chen Zhao, CNBC's, Zhao, Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley, Wang Zhao Organizations: of Finance, Bloomberg, Getty, China's Finance, Beijing, Investors, National Development, Reform, Authorities, China's Ministry, Finance, China's, National People's Congress, Afp Locations: Beijing, country's, Shanghai, Asia
Social Security recipients can expect a 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) increase in their payments starting in 2025 amid cooling inflation. On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the 12-month consumer price index inflation rate hit 2.4% in September. The Social Security Administration calculates the annual COLA based on consumer price growth in the months of July, August and September. That, advocates say, is proof that seniors and other Social Security recipients are facing a declining standard of living. “Congress knows this problem is going on, but the gridlock can’t seem to solve anything, much less the third rail of politics that is Social Security,” said Shannon G. Benton, executive director of the Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group.
Persons: , Mary Johnson, Shannon G, Benton Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Social Security Administration, for Social Security, Data, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Social, Social Security, CPI, , Senior Citizens League Locations: Washington
Hong Kong CNN —Global investors went wild during China’s just-concluded Golden Week holiday by snapping up “everything” related to the country. But that optimism didn’t extend to shoppers and travelers in the world’s second-largest economy itself. “Low tourism spending per head and subdued services prices highlighted still weak domestic demand and continued consumption downgrading,” they said. Goldman Sachs added that anecdotal evidence indicates hotel prices and airfares during the holiday were lower than year-ago levels. According to official data, cross-border travel rose by about 26% to 13 million trips, compared with last year’s holiday period.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Xi Jinping, David Tepper Organizations: Hong Kong CNN — Global, Citi, Management, CNBC, Hong, National Development, Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance Locations: China, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen
Instead, he said it's more worthwhile to follow data about individual companies from the upcoming earnings season, which kicks off Friday. The CPI — which broadly measures the cost of goods and services across the U.S. — rose by 0.2% in September, sending the annual inflation rate to 2.4%. However, the inflation rate still fell from August and hit its lowest reading since February 2021. According to Cramer, whether the Fed cuts rates or not at its next meeting, the general direction of interest rates is trending down. It would take a huge hike in the CPI reading to change the Fed's stance, he said, and Thursday's figures were not extreme.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, it's, , Cramer, that's Organizations: Federal Reserve
Earnings season is heating up, and investors' expectations are strong leading up to several financial reports due next week. For the third quarter, the estimated year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S & P 500 is 4.2% — which would mark the fifth straight quarter of year-over-year earnings growth for the index if it happens, according to FactSet. Nearly half of S & P 500 companies that will report earnings this week are financials. Alexopoulos has an overweight rating and Dec. 2025 price target of $100.00 on the mid-sized bank, which suggests shares can gain 19.4%. Their average price target suggests just 3.4% potential upside over the next year.
Persons: It's, Steven Alexopoulos Organizations: Investment, Citizens, FactSet, CNBC, Western Alliance, JPMorgan
China's CSI 300 index has gained about 25% since the stimulus measures were announced. That would depend on whether the measures announced will likely target China's stock market or the real economy. Even if China's economy improves and its stock market soars, experts suggest it's unlikely to hurt the Indian equity market's growth outlook over the long term. For now, a strong and rapidly growing economy, as well as a "resilient" domestic investor base, continue to be significant drivers of Indian stock markets, according to Wall Street's observers. "The Indian market has numerous positive domestic drivers which underpin our overweight recommendation," Morgan Stanley's Jonathan Garner said in a note to clients this week.
Persons: India's, Chris Ma, Berstein's Rupal Agarwal, David Aserkoff, Aserkoff, Morgan Stanley's, Wall, Morgan, Jonathan Garner, Michael Bloom Organizations: CSI, Beijing, Citi, Central Locations: China, India, Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa
The U.S. dollar traded near a two-month peak against major peers on Thursday as markets grew more confident about a patient approach from the Federal Reserve to further monetary easing, even as a key inflation report loomed later in the day. The U.S. dollar traded near a two-month peak against major peers on Thursday as markets grew more confident about a patient approach from the Federal Reserve to further monetary easing, even as a key inflation report loomed later in the day. The euro languished near its lowest since Aug. 13, while against the yen, the dollar hovered close to its strongest level since Aug. 15. The dollar index was little changed at 102.86 as of 0024 GMT, sticking close to Wednesday's high of 102.93. The greenback eased 0.18% to 149.035 yen , but was not far from the overnight peak of 146.365.
Persons: Kyle Rodda, , Rodda, Mary Daly Organizations: U.S ., Federal Reserve, Reuters, U.S, CPI, Francisco Fed, Traders, New Locations: U.S
For roughly the past two years, traders have bullishly invested in companies on the S&P 500 , leading the index of 500 large U.S. companies to new heights—even as the Federal Reserve issued aggressive rate hikes. Jim Cramer reflected on the lead performing stocks, with his favorite buys being Nvidia , Broadcom and Fair Isaac . "The whole first year of this bull's life was an anomaly—that's because the Fed was furiously tightening and the market went up anyway," he said. "Every night I say there's always a bull market somewhere, and for the last two years, well, it's been right in front of you." Cramer lists top 10 stocks on the S&P 500 with the biggest gains since October 12, 2022:
Persons: Jim Cramer, Isaac, it's, Cramer Organizations: Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Broadcom
The unexpectedly hot inflation reading complicates the prospect of further rate cuts from the Fed. This index was expected to see a year-over-year increase of 2.3%, a cooler rate than August's 2.5%. The surprisingly hot inflation reading is a sign that the economy is running strong, and complicates the Fed's next rate decision, since in theory higher inflation would make further cuts less likely. AdvertisementThat could be because the market also digested weekly jobless-claim figures that came in higher than expected. Following a surprisingly strong September jobs report, speculation rose that the Fed might slow its pace of rate cuts — or even stop them altogether.
Persons: Organizations: Service Locations: mull
Gold ticks up, U.S. inflation data in focus
  + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices nudged higher on Thursday, while traders await a key U.S. inflation data due later in the day to gauge the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy stance. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,614.00 per ounce by 0246 GMT, after easing for the previous six sessions. The U.S. Consumer Price Index for September is due at 1230 GMT and Producer Price Index data on Friday. Markets see an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in November. Dallas Fed Bank President Lorie Logan called for gradual cuts and said that the U.S. central bank should not rush.
Persons: Price, Ilya Spivak, Spivak, Mary Daly, Lorie Logan, Israel's Organizations: U.S, Consumer, Treasury, Fed, San Francisco Fed Bank, Dallas Fed Bank Locations: U.S, Iran
A general view of the Shanghai Securities Exchange building is being shown in Shanghai, China, on July 16, 2024. Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.26% to end at 39,380.89, while the broad-based Topix rose 0.2% to close at 2,71267. Traders in Asia were assessing September data on producer prices in Japan which rose 2.8% from a year ago. Economists polled by Reuters had predicted the inflation rate would come in at 2.3%, down from 2.5% in August. The rally had been triggered by a blitz of government stimulus measures at the end of September.
Persons: Australia's, Korea's Kospi, Hong, Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley, Ahya Organizations: Shanghai Securities Exchange, Dow Jones, Nikkei, Traders, Reuters, Investors, Holdings, Alimentation, CSI, China's Finance, Asia Locations: Shanghai, China, SINGAPORE — Asia, Pacific, 2,71267, Asia, Japan, Beijing
Bernard Arnault's family is set to become a majority shareholder in Paris FC. AdvertisementBernard Arnault's family is set to invest in Paris FC football club alongside Red Bull as the billionaire LVMH CEO further embraces the world of sport and its lucrative sponsorship opportunities. Red Bull will acquire a 15% stake. "LVMH operates a global business and needs to find global audiences and global languages," Luca Solca, a senior analyst at Bernstein covering global luxury goods, told Business Insider. LVMH and Red Bull did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.
Persons: Bernard Arnault's, LVMH, , Red Bull, Pierre Ferracci's, Arnault, Louis Vuitton, Moët Hennessy, Luca Solca, Bernstein Organizations: Paris FC, Rolex, Service, Paris FC football, Bloomberg, Ligue, TAG, Olympic, Paralympic Games, Business Locations: Paris, LVMH, Swiss
Amberly Grant achieved 'coast FIRE' by saving 75% of her income and investing in index funds. AdvertisementFor years, Amberly Grant didn't earn enough money to save for her future. Rather than spend money on a heating system, "we just decided to be kind of cold," said Grant. Grant refused to spend money on haircuts and manicures. Maxing out 3 investment accounts and achieving 'coast FIRE'By keeping her monthly expenses around $1,300, Grant was able to save about 75% of her pre-tax income right after graduating.
Persons: Amberly Grant, Roth, , Amberly Grant didn't, I've, Grant, I'd, she's, it'll Organizations: Roth IRA, Service, Leeds School of Business, Reading, IRA, BI Locations: Thailand, Sydney, Denver, Portland, San Francisco, Vegas, Colorado
Prices fall at the gas pumpAnnual food inflation is 'fairly tame'Frederic J. "What happens there can really move the dial when it comes to overall inflation and core inflation." CPI shelter inflation — which includes rental prices and an equivalent measure for homeowners — has gradually declined but remained stubbornly high. In September, shelter inflation throttled back on a monthly basis, to 0.2% from 0.5% in August. "Shelter inflation is now definitively moderating," Zandi said.
Persons: David Paul Morris, It's, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Sarah House, Frederic J, Brown, , That's, that's Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S . Federal Reserve, AFP, CPI Locations: Wells Fargo
Indexes slipped Thursday as investors priced in a higher-than-expected inflation reading. The data raises the possibility of a "no landing" scenario for the US economy. AdvertisementStocks fell on Thursday from records reached in the previous session, as traders took in a sticky inflation reading for September. September consumer price index data released on Thursday showed inflation rose 2.4% year-over-year, slightly above consensus forecasts of a 2.3% rise. AdvertisementThe core CPI reading, which excludes more volatile food and energy costs, was up 3.3% year-over-year and just above forecasts of 3.2%.
Persons: , Stocks, Hurricane Milton, Jamie Dimon, Buffett Organizations: Traders, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, CPI, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Investors, Labor Department, Here's, Insurance Locations: Hurricane
AdvertisementFor years, the US Justice Department's lawsuit against Google's Search business has been largely ignored by Wall Street and even many of Google's employees. They also include sharing some of Google's search data with rivals. The DOJ is also considering cracking open Google's search index and forcing it to share data, including the nitty-gritty of how Google ranks website quality. The DOJ said this could include the models used for Google's AI Search features. AdvertisementThe DOJ has said it's also weighing a proposal that websites can opt out of Google's AI training and from appearing in AI search results altogether.
Persons: , Department's, Bernstein, Amit Mehta, Dan Morgan, monetization, Max, Morgan, Dan Ives, Liz Reid, Marissa Mayer, it's, It's Organizations: US Justice Department, Google, Analysts, Service, Google's, Wall, DOJ, Apple, European Union, Chrome, Wedbush, Tech, Media, Finance, Sunshine Locations: European, Europe
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Markets: Stocks are slightly lower Thursday, but not far from the S & P 500 's record close set Wednesday. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Salesforce, Piper Sandler, Laggard, Analysts, It's, Piper, Salesforce's, Lisa Su, Su, Jim, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, ., CRM, Nvidia, AMD, AMD's, UBS, Broadcom, JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Bank of New York Mellon, PPI, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: China, Wells Fargo
The S&P 500 and Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index Fund have surged over 30% in 2024. GuruFocus tracks top investors' stock picks, highlighting 15 popular stocks among gurus. The stock market has boom-and-bust cycles and periods of sector rotations. Some have taken to copying the so-called investing gurus of our world. The bucket of allocators adds up to more than 140 investors and funds, including Buffett and Fisher.
Persons: Ken Fisher, Warren Buffett, contrarian, , it's, He's, Buffett, Fisher Organizations: Market, Service, Market Index
Why investors shouldn’t sweat this inflation report
  + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The latest inflation report came in slightly hotter than expected, knocking stock prices lower. But the odds of a quarter-point Fed rate cut in November actually rose after the report came out. "CPI Inflation data was slightly on the hotter side, with commodity prices (outside) energy rising more than expected. The good news is that shelter inflation is pulling back and that's going to pull inflation lower. Investors received fresh labor market data Thursday as well, with initial jobless claims jumping by 33,000 to 258,000.
Persons: Dow Jones, Sonu Varghese, Goldman Sachs, Whitney Watson, Ian Lyngen, Stephen Tusa Organizations: CPI, Reserve, Carson, Investors, BMO Capital Markets, JPMorgan, Honeywell
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) during morning trading on January 11, 2024 in New York City. Stock futures were little changed on Thursday evening, as investors looked ahead to a wholesale inflation reading and quarterly results from major banks. Futures tied to the S&P 500 inched higher by 0.08%, while Nasdaq 100 futures hovered just below the flatline. September's consumer price index rose 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.4% from a year earlier. The S&P 500 is up 0.5% week to date, while the Dow is toting a 0.2% gain.
Persons: Dow Jones, Preston Caldwell, Wells Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Futures, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, Federal Reserve, Morningstar, JPMorgan Chase Locations: New York City
Hurricane Milton's impact on Florida won't cause major losses for catastrophe bond investors, portfolio managers say. Insurance companies still face significant losses, but cat bond investors aren't eyeing the worst-case scenario. AdvertisementThe impact of Hurricane Milton on Florida is unlikely to trigger massive losses for catastrophe bond investors. The losses for cat bond investors, therefore, might only be in the low-single digits. This will drive an increase in risk premiums, leading to higher return expectations for cat bond investors moving forward," Steiger said.
Persons: aren't, , Helene, Milton, Chin Liu, Tanja Wrosch, That's, Florian Steiger, Steiger Organizations: Insurance, Service, Investors, Twelve, Bloomberg, Icosa, Progressive, Allstate, Chubb Limited, Swiss Locations: Florida, Hurricane Milton, Tampa, Milton
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Persons: you'd, Hannah Van, Sickle, Hannah, Read, Evelyn Organizations: Mutual, Business, Omaha Life Insurance, Nebraska's Creighton University, Fortune, Insurance, Omaha Life, Get, Policygenius, Cons Mutual, Express, Omaha Universal Life, Life Insurance, Better, National Association of Insurance, Farm, Nationwide, York, York Life, New York Life, Plus, New York, . Northwestern Mutual Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance, Northwestern Mutual, Globe, Globe Life, Life, Chevron, Omaha, Berkshire, Berkshire Edge, Personal Finance Locations: Omaha, New, New York, York, Chevron, CA, LA, NH, NY, NC, WI, Berkshires, Massachusetts, Refinery29
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