Ying Tang | NurPhoto | Getty ImagesThe Chinese economy could be facing a prolonged period of lower growth, a prospect which may have global ramifications after 45 years of rapid expansion and globalization.
The ruling Chinese Communist Party has set a growth target of 5% for 2023, lower than usual and notably modest for a country that has averaged 9% annual GDP growth since opening up its economy in 1978.
For the global economy, however, the most immediate spillover of a Chinese slowdown will likely come in commodities and the industrial cycle, as China reconfigures its economy to reduce its reliance on a property sector that has been "absorbing and driving commodity prices."
"This shift from a complementary economy, where Beijing and Berlin kind of benefit from each other, to now being competitors is another big consequence of the structural slowdown," Green said.
He noted that beyond the immediate loss of demand for commodities, China's reaction to its shifting economic sands will also have "second order impacts" for the global economy.
Persons:
Ying Tang, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Evans, it's, Xi Jinping's, Rory Green, Green
Organizations:
Beijing, Communist Party, Capital Economics, Triple, TS Lombard, CNBC
Locations:
Suzhou, Shanghai, China, Asia, Beijing, Japan, Brazil, Australia, Germany, Berlin