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The 2.2% year-on-year increase in the weighted median inflation rate, which is closely watched as an indicator on whether price rises are broadening, followed a 2.0% gain in September. It was the fastest rise since comparable data became available in 2001, Bank of Japan (BOJ) data showed. The data will be among the factors the BOJ will scrutinise at its next policy-setting meeting on Dec. 18-19. The weighted median is the inflation rate of items at the middle of the price changes, or around the 50th percentile point of the distribution. Unlike the consumer price index (CPI), which is swayed by fuel and energy costs, the weighted median inflation rate is useful to trace how widely prices are rising.
Persons: Issei Kato, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Kim Coghill Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Bank
"But I think it's not just this week's inflation indicator, it's also the December payroll numbers ... they'll be quite critical." "Our view is that the Fed will probably start cutting rates when inflation goes below the 3% mark. The weaker-than-expected data weighed on Treasury yields, with the yield on benchmark 10-year notes slipping 9.6 basis points on Monday. The dollar index , a measure of the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell to 103.07, its lowest since Aug. 31. Data showed retail sales in Australia unexpectedly slipped in October as consumers cut back on everything but food, though analysts believe many were merely saving some money to splurge on Black Friday sales that took place this month.
Persons: DAX, Vasu Menon, they'll, Menon, Dave Ramsden, Christine Lagarde, Jerome Powell, HSI, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Sam Holmes, Kim Coghill Organizations: Federal, Investors, OCBC Bank, of England, European Central Bank, Japan's Nikkei, Treasury, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Singapore, U.S, Hong Kong, Australia
Japan's Nikkei (.N225) eased 0.20% but is up 8% this month, on course for its strongest monthly performance in three years. "The outlook for central bank policy has been a big factor driving the improvement in risk appetite in November," said Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at National Australia Bank. Investors will focus this week on the Fed's preferred measure of inflation on Thursday and euro zone consumer inflation figures for further clarity on the where inflation is headed. The weaker-than-expected data weighed on Treasury yields, with the yield on benchmark 10-year notes slipping 9.6 basis points on Monday. The dollar index , a measure of the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell to 103.11, its lowest since Aug. 31.
Persons: Rodrigo Catril, Catril, Christine Lagarde, Jerome Powell, HSI, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Sam Holmes Organizations: Federal, Japan's Nikkei, National Australia Bank, European Central Bank, Treasury, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, U.S, OPEC
Barclays has identified European stocks that are most at risk of taking a hit to profits over rising interest payments for debt over the next two years. During the coronavirus pandemic, central banks cut interest rates to historic lows, enabling companies to borrow debt at very favorable rates. However, refinancing has now become far more difficult as rates have surged and are expected to stay elevated through 2025. The Wall Street bank believes refinancing debt at higher rates could dent earnings by 3% to 5% over the next two years, impacting stocks. CNBC Pro subscribers can read more about the stocks identified here.
Persons: — Ganesh Rao Organizations: Barclays, CNBC
Funds' $10 billion net long dollar position in the week ending Nov. 7 was the biggest bullish bet on the greenback since October last year and a huge turnaround from the net short position worth more than $20 billion in mid-July. The last decade has shown that CFTC funds' net dollar positions tend to be long-term, directional trades held for at least a year, the longest of which was the net long from May 2013 through June 2017. But this time may be different - funds have only been net long dollars for nine weeks. The long dollar liquidation in the week to Nov. 14 was mostly against the euro and Japanese yen. Funds expanded their net long euro position by $2.9 billion, or nearly 21,000 contracts, the sixth increase in a row and the biggest since July.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, that's, Morgan, Jamie McGeever, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Futures Trading Commission, Traders, Reuters, Funds, Bank of Japan, FX, Thomson Locations: Rights ORLANDO , Florida
Global regulators to assess if more crypto safeguards needed
  + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - More measures may be needed to stop blow-ups at complex crypto firms like FTX from destabilising the wider financial system, the global Financial Stability Board (FSB) said on Tuesday. The vulnerabilities are similar to those found in traditional finance, including leverage, liquidity mismatches, technology and operational vulnerabilities, the FSB said in a report. Evidence suggests that the threat to wider financial stability and the economy is limited at present, it added. The FSB and IOSCO, a global body of securities watchdogs, have already published this year high level recommendations for supervising crypto activities. Regulators, however, should assess whether these measures adequately stop risks from crypto being amplified across the financial system, the report said.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, FTX, Huw Jones, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, FSB, Thomson
Expecting best multi-asset returns in 2024: Invesco
  + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpecting best multi-asset returns in 2024: InvescoPaul Jackson, global head of asset allocation research at Invesco, says central banks will start to ease in the second half of 2024.
Persons: Invesco Paul Jackson
The S&P 500 currently sits around 4,550. BMO’s chief investment strategist Brian Belski has predicted that the S&P 500 will close out 2024 at a healthy 5,100. The S&P 500 has gained about 18.5% so far this year after falling nearly 20% in 2022. Despite elevated borrowing costs, three years of high inflation and increasing numbers of Americans dipping into their retirement plans, consumers continue to keep the US economy chugging. Google accounts include everything from Gmail to Docs to Drive to Photos, meaning all content sitting across an inactive user’s Google suite is at risk of erasure.
Persons: New York CNN — It’s, , Candace Browning, Browning, Goldman Sachs, Lori Calvasina, America’s Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Brian Belski, , Matt Egan, ” Michelle Meyer, Jennifer Korn, it’s, Google Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bank of America, RBC, BMO Capital Markets, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets, Bank, America’s, Federal Reserve, Mastercard Economics Institute, CNN, Adobe Analytics, Google Locations: New York
A woman picks a gold earring at a jewellery shop in the old quarters of Delhi, India, May 24, 2023. While India's gold demand has been solid so far in 2023, matching strength in the domestic economy, it appears that some momentum may be coming out of the market. The high price of gold for consumers in China may further crimp demand in the fourth quarter, after the World Gold Council reported a decline in third. The recent price rally is likely to trim demand growth in India in the current quarter. But countering the positive drivers are signs that high prices are undermining demand growth in the key markets of China and India.
Persons: Anushree, they're, Hong Kong, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S . Federal Reserve, Hong, Hong Kong Census, Statistics Department, Gold, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Delhi, India, Rights LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, Hong Kong, Hong, Central
America's debt problem has caused a dangerous sugar high for the economy, Jamie Dimon said. The JPMorgan chief pointed to the enormous surge of new debt taken on during the pandemic. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementThe US is practically addicted to debt – and that's put the economy in a dangerous position, according to JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon. The rest of the global economy is also staring at a "cocktail" of risks, Dimon added.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, , that's, Dimon Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Wall Street, Federal Reserve, Global Investment Summit, Penn Wharton Budget Locations: London
Barclays has identified the European stocks that are most at risk of taking a hit to profits over rising interest payments for debt over the next two years. During the coronavirus pandemic, central banks cut interest rates to historic lows, enabling companies to borrow debt at very favorable rates. The table below shows the 10 stocks Barclays expects to have the biggest increase in interest costs through to 2025. Since interest costs are integral to real estate business models, the impact on margins and profits could be much more severe, the bank's analysts said. The Barclays team is confident that while interest rates can hurt company bottom lines, there was "scant" evidence that showed there was systemic risk.
Persons: Fastighets Balder, Castellum, Vonovia, Matthew Joyce, Zoso Davies Organizations: Barclays, Premier, Whitbread, BASF, Dassault Systemes Locations: Swiss
Morning Bid: China's Shein steals market spotlight
  + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Whether this potential blockbuster gives a fillip to the lacklustre IPO market remains to be seen, after some high-profile public debuts this year failed to impress. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) is on course for its strongest monthly performance since January with a nearly 7% gain. Japan's Nikkei, Asia's best-performing stock market this year, is set for its strongest monthly result in three years. European stock markets are likely to see a subdued start to Tuesday, futures indicate, with a bare economic calendar leaving investors treading cautiously ahead of major economic data. Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:France consumer confidence for November, Euro zone money M3 annual growth for October.
Persons: Shein, Asia's, Ankur Banerjee, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Ankur Banerjee, Traders, Japan's Nikkei, Adobe Digital, Insider Intelligence, Thomson Locations: Ankur, China, Singapore, Asia, Pacific, Japan, U.S, France
Reddit and Kim Kardashian's shapewear brand, SKIMS, are considering 2024 IPOs, Bloomberg reported. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementBoth Reddit and Kim Kardashian's SKIMS are eyeing much-anticipated IPOs in 2024, Bloomberg reported. AdvertisementRepresentatives SKIMS did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Business Insider.
Persons: Reddit, Kim Kardashian's, IPOs, , Candace Browning, SKIMS, Jens Grede, Kardashian Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, SEC, Bank of America, Bank of America Global Research, Business Locations: Swedish
While emerging market and Asian equities clocked up decent gains on Tuesday, Wall Street struggled to make much headway despite a seemingly constructive market and economic backdrop. The dollar, Treasury yields, and stock market volatility all fell, and U.S. consumer confidence was higher than expected. Fed Governor Christopher Waller - thought to be close to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's thinking on policy - also signaled that U.S. interest rates could be cut in the months ahead. Thailand's central bank is also expected to keep rates on hold, at 2.50%, through the middle of 2025. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:- New Zealand interest rate decision- Thailand interest rate decision- Australia inflationBy Jamie McGeever Editing byOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Issei Kato, Christopher Waller, Jerome Powell's, That's, Michele Bullock, Jamie McGeever Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Wall, Treasury, Fed, Nasdaq, Reserve Bank of New, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, New Zealand, Thailand, Australia, U.S, Thailand's, Zealand
[1/4] A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. In precious metals, gold hit a six-month high with a boost from the softer dollar and expectations for a pause in Fed tightening. There's a growing sense the economy is slowing, that price growth will likely continue to fall, that profit growth will likely fall," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital, in Chicago. The U.S. dollar index slid against most major currencies on Monday and was on track for a monthly decline of more than 3%, which would be its biggest monthly drop in a year. The dollar index was down 0.203%, with the euro up 0.11% to $1.0951.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Brent, Jack Ablin, Ablin, Christine Lagarde, Jim Barnes, Sterling, Sinéad Carew, Chuck Mikolazczak, Harry Robertson, Wayne Cole, Stephen Coates, Ed Osmond, Chizu Nomiyama, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Cresset, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, Central, Reuters Graphics Oil, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Europe, OPEC, Chicago, Bryn Mawr, Berwyn , Pennsylvania, Israel, New York, London, Sydney
In Hungary, central bank governor Gyorgy Matolcsy is under pressure from Viktor Orban's government to cut rates further ahead of local and European Parliament elections next year. Reuters GraphicsTANGIBLE BENEFITSA 2021 World Bank survey found that political meddling in central bank policy led to sustained periods of high inflation in emerging market economies such as Turkey and Argentina. "Attempts to bring the president of the NBP before the State Tribunal can be directly interpreted as an attack on the independence of the central bank," the spokesman said. How those premia evolve will depend partly on how politics in Poland and Hungary is perceived by investors to influence the central banks in the months to come. "Everything else being equal, the less independent the central bank, the more real yield you need to have to be compensated for the risk," said Arif Joshi at Lazard Asset Management.
Persons: Adam Glapinski, Gyorgy Matolcsy, Viktor Orban's, Donald Tusk's, Karen Vartapetov, Paul Gamble, Glapinski's, Glapinski, Marta Kightley, Orban, Peter Virovacz, Arif Joshi, Karol Badohal, Gergely, Mark John, Toby Chopra Organizations: WARSAW, Law and Justice, U.S . Federal Reserve, EU, Sovereign, Investor, Emerging, Fitch, Local, ING, Lazard Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Hungarian, Poland, Hungary, BUDAPEST, Europe, Turkey, Argentina, WARSAW
Asia stocks swing lower, gold climbs as oil slips
  + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
One mover was gold, which climbed to $2,009.87 an ounce and briefly hit a six-month top of $2,017.82. S&P 500 futures eased 0.2% and Nasdaq futures lost 0.4%. "Indeed, this message of patience is likely to be notable in upcoming DM policy communications in response to recent financial market developments." Markets priced in 80 basis points of U.S. easing next year, and around 82 basis points for the ECB. Reports suggest African oil producers are seeking higher caps for 2024, while Saudi Arabia may extend its additional 1 million bpd voluntary production cut, which is due to expire at the end of December.
Persons: Issei Kato, Jerome Powell, Bruce Kasman, Christine Lagarde, Brent, Wayne Cole, Stephen Coates Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, SYDNEY, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, Federal, JPMorgan, European Central Bank, EU, ECB, CBA, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, United States, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Saudi Arabia, OPEC
Asia stocks turn lower, gold jumps as oil slips
  + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
S&P 500 futures eased 0.2%, and Nasdaq futures lost 0.4%. That in turn has been a drag on the dollar which has lost 3% on a basket of major counterparts this month . Reports suggest African oil producers are seeking higher caps for 2024, while Saudi Arabia may extend its additional 1 million bpd voluntary production cut, which is due to expire at the end of December. "Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ faces a challenge in convincing markets that it can help keep oil markets tight in 2024," wrote commodity analysts at CBA in a note. "OPEC+ will have to show significant supply discipline, or at least jawbone such ability, to alleviate market worries of a deep surplus in oil markets next year."
Persons: Issei Kato, Jerome Powell, Bruce Kasman, Christine Lagarde, Brent, Wayne Cole, Stephen Coates Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, SYDNEY, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, Federal, JPMorgan, European Central Bank, EU, ECB, Australian, CBA, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, United States, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Saudi Arabia, OPEC
The approach of month end could also cause some caution given the hefty gains investors are sitting on. "Indeed, this message of patience is likely to be notable in upcoming DM policy communications in response to recent financial market developments." Markets priced in almost 90 basis points of U.S. easing next year, and around 83 basis points for the ECB. The oil market faces a tense few days ahead of a meeting of OPEC+ on Nov. 30, a meting that had originally been slated for Sunday but was postponed as producers struggled to find a unanimous position. Reports suggest African oil producers are seeking higher caps for 2024, while Saudi Arabia may extend its additional 1 million bpd voluntary production cut, which is due to expire at the end of December.
Persons: Issei Kato, Jerome Powell, Bruce Kasman, Christine Lagarde, Brent, Wayne Cole, Christopher Cushing Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, SYDNEY, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, Federal, JPMorgan, European Central Bank, EU, ECB, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, United States, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Saudi Arabia
A bus passes the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain, February 14, 2017. "Climate change is the most-cited example of the expansion of the remit," committee chair George Bridges, a Conservative former Brexit minister, told Reuters. The House of Lords committee set up the inquiry in March, following a surge in inflation to a 41-year high last year. The central bank is midway through its own forecasting review led by former U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke. The House of Lords committee said parliament should have more opportunity to debate these changes, and should conduct in-depth reviews of the BoE's work every five years.
Persons: Hannah McKay, BoE, Mervyn King, George Bridges, Ben Bernanke, Jeremy Hunt, Bridges, David Milliken, William Schomberg Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, Economic Affairs Committee, Conservative, Reuters, U.S . Federal, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, Ukraine
A man looks at an electric monitor displaying the Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar and Nikkei share average outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan October 4, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 28 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. Volatility across major asset classes is low - implied volatility on Wall Street is at its lowest in almost four years, global currency implied vol is the lowest since early last year, and U.S. bond vol is at a two-month low. China's markets, especially, have lagged, although Japanese stocks have outperformed thanks to the weak yen and a historic loosening of wider financial conditions. The Aussie on Monday rose above $0.66 for the first time since Aug. 10 and was one of the biggest winners among major currencies along with the Japanese yen and New Zealand dollar.
Persons: Issei Kato, Goldman Sachs, Michele Bullock, Bullock, Philip Lowe, Bullock's, Fed's Waller, Bowman, Goolsbee, Barr, Jamie McGeever Organizations: U.S ., Nikkei, REUTERS, Reserve Bank of Australia, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Bank for International, New Zealand, Bank of, RBA, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Asia, Hong Kong, Bank of Japan, Australia
Nouriel Roubini cautioned markets to prepare for persistently higher inflation rates. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. And efforts to reduce inflation through higher interest rates risk causing a recession among highly-leveraged borrowers, something governments want to avoid. AdvertisementFaced with this, central banks could raise inflation targets above historical averages, as signaled by the fact that many are pausing rate hikes despite still too-high core inflation, Roubini said. To deal with this situation, Roubini noted that some countries will simply allow higher inflation to erode nominal debt.
Persons: Nouriel, Roubini, , Doom Organizations: Service
Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England (BOE), during the Monetary Policy Report news conference at the bank's headquarters in the City of London, UK, on Thursday, Nov. 2, 2023. LONDON — The Bank of England's current remit risks it becoming entangled with wider government policy aims and jeopardizes its ability to focus on bringing down inflation, a scathing report by senior U.K. lawmakers released Monday says. The report also said the BOE and other central banks are suffering from a lack of "intellectual diversity" that have led to forecasting failures. The report was launched after U.K. inflation soared to a 41-year high through fall 2022, hitting a peak of 11.1% year-on-year in late 2022, one of the most severe levels of all developed economies. The Lords report, which was compiled through the collection of written evidence and panel interviews, notes that all central banks made mistakes in characterising inflation in 2021 as "transitory."
Persons: Andrew Bailey, BOE Organizations: Bank of England, City of, LONDON, of, Economic Affairs, U.S Locations: City, City of London
Bank of America predicted the Fed will cut interest rates in the middle of 2024. Still, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is not considering rate cuts right now. As Insider previously reported, the point at which experts predict interest rate cuts are coming in the US vary. When it comes to the Federal Reserve itself, it doesn't think interest rate cuts should be top of Americans' minds right now. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the November press conference following the central bank's announcement to continue its pause on rate hikes that he's "not talking about rate cuts."
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Candace Browning, Michael Gapen, Powell Organizations: of America, Service, Bank of America, BofA Global Research, UBS, Fed, Vanguard, Federal Reserve
Asia-Pacific markets are set for a positive start to the week as investors await key economic data out from major economies around the region, including China and Japan. China will release its official factory activity figures for November on Thursday, while the Caixin survey for the same metric will be out on Friday. Australia and Japan will release their October inflation figures on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, which will give clues to future moves by their respective central banks. India's gross domestic product numbers for the three months ended September will also be released late Thursday.
Locations: Asia, Pacific, China, Japan, Australia
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