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REUTERS/Ann Saphir/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 7 (Reuters) - Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan on Tuesday said she supported leaving the Fed's policy rate on hold last week to assess if financial conditions are sufficiently tight to bring down inflation, while pointing to recent signs the fight was not yet won. "We're going to continue to need to see tight financial conditions in order to bring inflation to 2% in a timely and sustainable way," Logan said. "I'm going to be looking at the data and I'm going to be looking at financial conditions as we get closer to the following meeting." That view was one main reason the Fed opted to keep the policy rate in its current 5.25%-5.50% range last week. "We have seen some retracement in that 10-year yield and financial conditions, and so I'll be watching to see whether that continues and what that means for the implications of policy," Logan said on Tuesday.
Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, Logan, Franklin Paul, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reserve Bank, Dallas, National Association for Business Economics, REUTERS, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, Fed, Thomson Locations: Dallas , Texas, U.S
The U.S. central bank could even be forced to raise rates to ensure the pace of inflation remains on a downward trajectory and does not bounce back, Goldberg said. Markets also imply about an 80% probability the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut rates by April, while the Bank of England (BoE) is seen easing in August. An outlier is Australia's central bank, which is considered likely to resume raising rates at a policy meeting on Tuesday as inflation there stays stubbornly high. The head of the central bank said on Monday it was closer to achieving its inflation target, but it was still not enough to end ultra-loose policy. The drop in the dollar and yields has helped underpin gold, as investors have cautiously turned back to riskier assets.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Anthony Saglimbene, Saglimbene, We're, BoE, Jerome Powell, Herbert Lash, Wayne Cole, Alun John, Nick Macfie, Will Dunham, Mark Potter, Marguerita Choy Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Wall, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, Bank of England, ECB, The Bank of Japan, ., Germany's, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Europe, New York, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Troy , Michigan, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia
Hopes for lower borrowing costs overnight helped shares in Asia, which missed out on Friday's rally that was inspired by the U.S. jobs data. DOLLAR DROPSTwo-year Treasury yields , which reflect interest rate expectations, rose 5.9 bps to 4.891% after falling 18 bps last week. The recent retreat in Treasury yields pulled the rug out from under the dollar last week. The dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency against six others, was steady at 105.07 after sliding 1.4% last week. U.S. crude rose 1.73% to $81.90 per barrel and Brent was at $86.07, up 1.39% on the day.
Persons: Issei Kato, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, BoE, Samy Chaar, Jerome Powell, Brent, Herbert Lash, Wayne Cole, Alun John, Nick Macfie, Will Dunham, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Wall, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Lombard, ECB, The Bank of Japan, ., Palestinian, Hamas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Europe, New York, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia, East, Israel, Gaza
Asia shares extend rally on hopes of early rate cuts
  + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
"This year's better-than-expected U.S. supply-side performance raises hopes for a soft landing," said Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan. Futures markets swung to imply a 90% chance the Fed was done hiking, and an 86% chance the first policy easing would come as soon as June. Markets also imply around an 80% probability the European Central Bank will be cutting rates by April, while the Bank of England is seen easing in August. An odd man out is Australia's central bank, which is considered likely to resume hiking rates at a policy meeting on Tuesday as inflation stays stubbornly high. "We look for the Fed Funds rate to fall to 3-3.25%, the ECB depo rate to 3% and BoE Bank Rate to 4.25% by end-2024."
Persons: Issei Kato, Bruce Kasman, disinflation, Jerome Powell, BoE, Brent, Wayne Cole, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, SYDNEY, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Futures, European Central Bank, Bank of, ECB, The Bank of Japan, South, Nasdaq, Fed, NatWest Markets, Sunday, Palestinian, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, United States, Europe, U.S, Bank of England, Asia, Pacific, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia, East, Israel, Gaza
Ex-VP of China's ICBC being probed by anti-graft body
  + stars: | 2023-11-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
Senior Executive Vice President of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) Zhang Hongli attends a meeting of Group of 20 leading economies' finance ministers and central bankers in Mexico City February 24, 2012. REUTERS/Tomas Bravo/ File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSHANGHAI, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The former vice president of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) (601398.SS), Zhang Hongli, is being probed by the anti-graft body, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection said on Saturday. Reporting by Shanghai Newsroom; Editing by William MallardOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Zhang Hongli, Tomas Bravo, William Mallard Organizations: Industrial, Commercial Bank of China, REUTERS, Rights, Central Commission, Shanghai, Thomson Locations: Mexico City
The dollar tumbled after the data, which showed that the U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 150,000 in October, lower than the 180,000 predicted and September's downwardly revised 297,000 figure. MSCI's index of world stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) was last up 0.45%, having traded roughly 0.26% higher before the data. It was on track to finish the week 4.5% higher, which would be the largest weekly rise since November 2022. It traded 0.29% lower at 105.89 before the data. Reuters Graphics"Investors will interpret today’s jobs weak jobs report as a sign that demand is slowing in the labour market," said Richard Flynn, managing director at Charles Schwab UK, in emailed comments.
Persons: Androniki, nonfarm, September's downwardly, Richard Flynn, Charles Schwab, BoE, Samuel Zief, Brent, Harry Robertson, Jacqueline Wong, Miral Fahmy, Mark Heinrich, Alison Williams Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, Companies, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, JPMorgan Private Bank, U.S . Treasury, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Israel
Take Five: You (may) have arrived at your destination
  + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
No wonder markets see a 70% chance that the Fed's brutal 20-month tightening cycle is over and that rate cuts could begin as soon as June. So watch closely to see if the top central bankers push back against the cut chatter until inflation is truly tamed. Shekel, gold, oil response to the war5/RACE DAY RATE HIKEThe famous Melbourne Cup horse race runs on Tuesday, but some of the shortest odds are on an Aussie central bank rate hike over in Sydney that day. Three-year and 10-year Australian government bond yields have hit their highest since 2011, though backed off slightly on the Fed's hold. The Australian dollar has also rallied strongly against its New Zealand counterpart as rate expectations diverge.
Persons: Marc Jones, Dhara, Kevin Buckland, Tom Westbrook, Lewis Krauskopf, BoE, Horton, Walt Disney, Mittal, shekel, Antony Blinken, Jordan, Luci Ellis, Kripa Jayaram, Riddhima Talwani, Gareth Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, ECB, FX, Bank of Japan, Reuters, eBay, Nvidia, UBS, ABN Amro, Allianz, Friday, U.S, Melbourne Cup, Westpac, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Australia, Gaza, Here's, London, Tokyo, Singapore, New York, Britain, U.S, Europe, Commerzbank, Israel, Gaza City, Iran, Sydney
Bond yields fell, and traders of contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate now see only a 12% chance of a rate hike by January, down from 30% before the release of the employment report. Rate futures pricing now reflects a better-than-even chance of a Fed rate cut by May of 2024, with several more cuts expected later next year. U.S. central bankers themselves are not even thinking about rate cuts, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week after the Fed kept its benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50% range. "Continued upward momentum would be troubling, and hopefully this recent rise levels off as the labor market recovery continues," said Indeed.com's Nick Bunker. Still for now, most of the worries about the labor market appear to be focused on what might, or might not, happen next rather than on the evidence so far.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, nonfarm, Bond, Powell, Thomas Barkin, Barkin, Michael Feroli, Nick Bunker, Sharif, Julie Su, Ann Saphir, Shristi Achar, Tomasz Janowski, Christina Fincher, Paul Simao, Chris Reese Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Labor Department, U.S, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Richmond Fed, CNBC, JPMorgan, Reuters Graphics, Labor, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S
What Is a Soft Landing?
  + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Aly J. Yale | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +4 min
But whether the central bank can meet its dual-objectives of slowing price growth and avoiding a recession—dubbed a “soft landing” by economists—remains to be seen. Threading that needle has proven to be quite elusive.”What is a soft landing? “The alternative to a soft landing is a hard landing,” Cirksena says. “How ‘soft’ that ‘soft landing’ is among citizens could vary widely,” he says. Will the Fed achieve a soft landing this time?
Persons: Aly J, , , David Johnston, Bank of Japan —, Aaron Cirksena, you’ll, ” Cirksena, Peter C, Earle, Jerome Powell, Organizations: Yale, Federal Reserve, Wealth Management, European Central Bank, Bank of, MDRN, American Institute for Economic Research, Fed, Bank of America, Wall Street, National Bureau of Economic Research Locations: Flemington, N.J, U.S, Bank of Japan, Annapolis, Md
Fed meetings may not be the biggest mover of the bond market, Societe Generale said. AdvertisementAdvertisementDespite US bond yields plunging after Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting, central bankers may not be moving the market as much as other factors, according to Societe Generale. Another factor elbowing yields higher is the Bank of Japan, according to Edwards. AdvertisementAdvertisementThis week, the BoJ further loosened its grip on bond yields, marking another step back from its so-called yield curve control policy meant to stimulate the economy by keeping interest rates low. "That pressure intensified at exactly the same time as it became apparent just how gargantuan US Treasury issuance had become," he added.
Persons: , Albert Edwards, Fedspeak, Edwards Organizations: Societe Generale, Bank of Japan, Service, Reserve, Treasury, Treasury Department
But they are also looking for further evidence that their moves are working to restrain the economy. “The same is true of growth.”But he said that economic growth, which is mainly powered by consumer spending, would most likely need to slow for inflation to fully return to a normal pace. It is now running at about 3.4 percent, still well above the Fed’s 2 percent goal. “What we do with demand is still going to be important,” he said. Surveying the economy reveals that the effects of the Fed’s rate moves are clear in some places, are mixed in others and have yet to make much of a dent elsewhere.
Persons: we’ve, Jerome H, Powell, , Organizations: Fed
OTTAWA, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Spending by federal and provincial governments in Canada will start feeding into inflation next year if current spending plans are maintained, Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem said on Wednesday. If governments follow through with spending plans for 2024, it would mean "government spending is starting to get in the way of getting inflation back to target" of 2%, Macklem told members of a Senate committee. If governments spend less, "it would be easier to reduce inflation," Macklem said. The federal government's Fall Economic Statement (FES) could come as early as next week. It looks like there could be more federal spending on the way because Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has said she will unveil measures in the FES to help Canadians tackle housing and affordability.
Persons: Macklem, Chrystia Freeland, Justin Trudeau, Carolyn Rogers, Rogers, Ismail Shakil, Steve Scherer, David Gregorio Our Organizations: OTTAWA, Bank of Canada, BoC, Thomson Locations: Canada, FES, Ottawa
European markets are heading for a higher open, with investors awaiting the next interest rate decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Central bankers are largely expected to hold rates steady, with fed funds futures pricing suggesting a more than 97% probability that rates will remain at current levels, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. European markets traded higher Tuesday after data showed euro zone inflation fell to a two-year low of 2.9% in October, preliminary data showed Tuesday. Meanwhile, statistics agency Eurostat said the euro zone economy contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter, below a forecast of stagnation. The readings come after the European Central Bank paused its record run of 10 consecutive interest rate hikes when it met last week.
Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Reuters, Eurostat, European Central Bank
A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. Central banks in Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Great Britain and the United States held no rate setting meetings. That compares to September, where three major developed central banks delivered a last-gasp set of rate hikes, which took 2023 the year-to-date tally for G10 central banks to a total of 1,150 bps across 36 hikes. Emerging markets interest rate moves in Oct 2023Meanwhile, diverging rate trajectories continued to be on display in emerging economies where 12 out of the 18 central banks in the Reuters sample held meetings in October. Central banks in Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand, Malaysia and Czech Republic did not meet in October.
Persons: Heiko Becker, Fabiana Fedeli, Barnaby Martin, Karin Strohecker, Sumanta Sen, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of New, Bank of Canada, Fed, Bank of England, G Investments, U.S . Federal, Reuters, BofA Securities, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Central, America, Europe, Asia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Great Britain, United States, Chile, Hungary, Poland, Indonesia, Philippines, Russia, Turkey, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand, Malaysia, Czech Republic
watch nowThe Federal Reserve left its target federal funds rate unchanged for the second consecutive time Wednesday. What the federal funds rate means for youThe federal funds rate, which is set by the central bank, is the interest rate at which banks borrow and lend to one another overnight. To a certain extent, many households have been shielded from the brunt of the Fed's rate hikes so far, House said. As the federal funds rate rose, the prime rate did as well, and credit card rates followed suit. If the 10-year yield stays near 5%, federal student loan interest rates could increase again when they reset in the spring, costing student borrowers even more in interest.
Persons: Brett House, that's, Sung Won Sohn, Sohn, bode, Greg McBride, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's, Tiffany Hagler, Bankrate, Jacob Channel Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Columbia Business School, Loyola Marymount University, SS Economics, Treasury, Geard, Bloomberg, Getty, Auto Locations: Larchmont , New York
Inflows have dropped sharply in recent months to around $1 trillion in the face of the Fed's aggressive policy tightening underway since last year. Fed officials, for their part, have said repeatedly they’ve got a lot of room to cut their holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, a process that complements Fed rate increases. So far, reverse repos have “come down very smoothly,” Lorie Logan, president of the Dallas Fed said earlier this month. In his view, if reverse repos stopped contracting that could become a meaningful sign liquidity levels were getting tight enough for the Fed to change gears. "We still have a very large balance sheet" so the balance sheet cuts can likely continue over the next year and half to two years, she said, adding when it comes to getting to the finish line, "it's going to take a while."
Persons: they’ve, ” Lorie Logan, Logan, “ I’ve, Wells Fargo, Roberto Perli, Lou Crandall, Wrightson ICAP, Crandall reckons, Loretta Mester, Michael S, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Fed, Dallas Fed, New York Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Cleveland Fed, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, Wells
Stock futures were slightly lower Tuesday evening as Wall Street geared up for the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on interest rates after closing out a terrible month. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were 50 points lower, or down 0.15%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures each shed about 0.2%. The Dow and the S&P 500 ended the month lower by 1.4% and 2.2%, respectively, marking the first three-month losing streak for both indexes since March 2020. Although November is a historically strong month for markets, investors are keeping an eye on a peak in bond yields.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Peter Boockvar, Stocks, Dow Organizations: Federal, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, China Holdings, Devices, Treasury Locations: Washington
Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to leave interest rates steady at the conclusion of their two-day meeting on Wednesday. Both will offer policymakers a chance to signal what they think might come next for interest rates and the economy. Central bankers have already raised interest rates to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent in a push to tame inflation. That rate setting is up from near-zero as recently as early 2022, and is the highest level in 22 years. And once they decide that rates are high enough, how long will they leave them elevated?
Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal
watch now'Inflation is still too high'The Federal Reserve is expected to announce it will leave rates unchanged at the end of its two-day meeting this week, even though Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently said "inflation is still too high." Recent data is painting a mixed picture of where the economy stands. Inflation has shown some signs of cooling, but the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which the Fed uses as a key measure, increased 0.3% in September. The consumer price index, another closely followed inflation gauge, also rose at a slightly faster-than-expected pace over the month, boosted by higher prices for food, gas and shelter. The consensus among economists and central bankers is that interest rates will now stay higher for longer.
Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal
"The Fed has never kept the target fed funds rate at peak levels for longer than nine months after a tightening cycle," Arone said. Nine months from now, at least based on history, the target fed funds rate is likely to be lower, not higher." He also sees lower rates ahead and pointed out the history of what happens with tight monetary policy. "The market is eager for lower rates or rate cuts. If the Fed has to rate cuts, it's likely because we're in recession or something in the capital markets is broken," he said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, aren't, Michael Arone, Powell, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Arone, Barry Sternlicht, , I'm, They've, Thomas Ryan, Nick Elfner, Elfner, Breckinridge, Street's Arone Organizations: Federal, U.S, SPDR, State Street Global Advisors, Fed, JPMorgan, Starwood Capital, Future Investment Initiative, Capital Economics, Breckinridge Capital Advisors Locations: United States, Saudi Arabia, U.S, Breckinridge
Looking ahead, the ongoing pass-through of the European Central Bank's monetary policy tightening, still no reversal of the inventory cycle and new geopolitical uncertainties will continue weighing on the German economy, Brzeski said. "The German economy looks set to remain in the twilight zone between minor contraction and stagnation not only this year but also next year," Brzeski said. The contraction in the third quarter is not seen as an outlier as Commerzbank expects the German economy to contract again in the winter half-year. Economists will pay close attention to national inflation data from Germany and Spain, as they are published one day before the euro zone inflation data release. Euro zone inflation is expected to ease to 3.2% in October from 4.3% in September, according to economists polled by Reuters.
Persons: Arnd, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, optimists, Joerg Kraemer, Claus Vistesen, Maria Martinez, Miranda Murray, Rachel More, Miral Fahmy, Angus MacSwan Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Gross, Reuters, ING, European Central, Macroeconomics, Thomson Locations: Konstanz, Germany, Spain
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said that the labor market is tight but loosening. Photo: saul loeb/Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesSince Federal Reserve officials last raised interest rates in July, the economy is doing two things that central bankers don’t think it can sustain much longer: revving up activity and at the same time slowing inflation. It has set off a debate within the central bank about how closely it should follow its traditional models of the economy. The debate is unlikely to affect the outcome of its meeting this week, when the Fed is set to hold interest rates steady to provide more time to see the effects of their rapid increases over the past two years.
Persons: Jerome Powell, saul loeb Organizations: Agence France, Federal
The 10-year Treasury yield topped 5% for the first time since 2007 this week. The gap between higher dividend yield stocks and the 10-year US Treasury yield has completely closed. Bond yields probably aren't falling soonTreasury yields are likely staying elevated, thanks to the Fed's committement to keeping a lid on inflation. Central bankers have raised rates 525 basis-points over the past year to lower high prices, which has helped pushed Treasury yields higher. Other market forecasters have warned of more trouble ahead in equities, especially as higher bond yields draw investors away from the stock market.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, there's, they've Organizations: Treasury, Service, Bank of America, Goldman, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Vanguard
The bond market is stirring. After years of low interest rates, yields throughout the vast global bond market are soaring. And in the bond market, traders and central bankers drove longer-term yields below 1 percent. Those depressed bond market yields fluctuated but never reclaimed their past heights. Interest rates were so low for so long that businesses and investors barely needed to think about them.
Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bear Locations: Washington, Bear Stearns
The S&P 500 could soar another 18% by year-end, according to Oppenheimer. In an interview with CNBC on Thursday, Stoltzfus reiterated his S&P 500 price target of 4,900 by the end of the year. Of the 17% of S&P 500 companies that reported third-quarter earnings last week, 73% have beaten analysts' estimates, according to FactSet data. That could be bullish for stocks, considering that rate hikes weighed the S&P 500 down heavily in 2022. In 2022, he predicted the S&P 500 would surge to 5,330, but then slashed that target several times as the year went on.
Persons: Oppenheimer, That's, , John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus, You've, that's Organizations: Service, Federal, CNBC, Fed, Treasury
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