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☆ Fact Check-EIA’s ‘days of supply’ figure does not show that the United States will ‘run out of diesel by Thanksgiving week’ in 2022
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Reuters Fact Check | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The claim was highlighted by conservative political commentator Tucker Carlson, who mentioned it during a segment of his show on Oct. 27 (youtu.be/lUZoli8oekg?t=181)“This country is about to run out of diesel fuel. According to data from the Energy Information Administration by the Monday of Thanksgiving week, that’s 25 days from now, there will be more no more diesel,” he said. EIA DATAThe EIA data for the week ending October 28 showed the United States had “25.8 days” of supply of total distillate. “Days of supply does not consider other sources like the amount of distillate fuel being produced at U.S. refineries and the amount of distillate fuel imported into the United States,” they said. The United States will not “run out of diesel” by the Monday of Thanksgiving week in 2022, industry experts told Reuters.

☆ EIA slashes 2023 U.S. crude oil production increase by 21%
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

HOUSTON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday cut its forecast for next year's crude output growth by 21%, days after heads of oil producers warned of persistent inflation and supply chain constraints. U.S. crude production is expected to increase by about 480,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 12.31 million bpd, the EIA said, down from a prior 610,000 bpd growth forecast. Still, U.S. oil production in 2023 will top 2019's record 12.29 million bpd output. Oil producers have warned in recent weeks of weaker-than-expected output, citing ageing wells, shortage of labor and materials, rising costs and a sharp focus on shareholder returns. The EIA also cut its demand estimates for next year to a 100,000 bpd increase from the 190,000 bpd gain it had forecast last month.

☆ U.S. natgas output, demand to hit record highs in 2022
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Nov 8 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas production and demand will rise to record highs in 2022, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday. EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 98.07 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2022 and 99.69 bcfd in 2023 from a record 94.57 bcfd in 2021. The agency also projected gas consumption would rise from 84.01 bcfd in 2021 to 88.39 bcfd in 2022 before sliding to 85.08 bcfd in 2023. In 2020, coal output fell to 535 million short tons, its lowest level since 1965. That compares with 4.577 billion tonnes in 2020, which was the lowest since 1983 because the coronavirus pandemic depressed demand for energy.

☆ Column: U.S. rush for renewable diesel may ignite fresh food fight
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Gavin Maguire | Thomson Reuters | Gavin Maguire Is The Global Energy Transition Columnist. He Was Previously Asia Commodities | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Renewable diesel, however, is chemically identical to petroleum-based diesel - so can be consumed in place of or along with normal diesel in whatever quantities are desired by end users. US renewable diesel vs biodiesel useRenewable diesel also emits fewer emissions than both biodiesel and regular diesel. US renewable diesel vs biodiesel production capacityFurther increases in renewable diesel production capacity are expected in the near term, with the EIA projecting capacity to climb to 5.1 billion gallons a year by 2024, from less than 1 billion in 2020. But that consumption share looks set to grow further as more renewable diesel production comes on line. Other major renewable diesel suppliers include Finland and the Netherlands, although both those countries have stepped up their own domestic consumption of renewable diesel in recent years, leaving little left for exports.

☆ U.S. power use to hit record in 2022 as economy grows, hotter weather -EIA
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

EIA projected power demand will climb to 4,036 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2022, from 3,930 billion kWh in 2021, before sliding to 3,989 billion kWh in 2023 as temperatures moderate. That compares with an eight-year low of 3,856 billion kWh in 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic depressed demand, and an all-time high of 4,003 billion kWh in 2018. EIA projected 2022 power sales would rise to 1,509 billion kWh for residential consumers, 1,371 billion kWh for commercial customers as more people return to work in offices and 1,014 billion kWh for the industrial sector. That compares with all-time highs of 1,477 billion kWh in 2021 for residential consumers, 1,382 billion kWh in 2018 for commercial customers and 1,064 billion kWh in 2000 for industrial customers. EIA said natural gas' share of power generation would rise from 37% in 2021 to 38% in 2022 before sliding to 36% in 2023.

☆ Oil climbs 4% as dollar slips and EU ban looms
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Julia Payne | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Both contracts were supported by a weaker dollar , which can boost oil demand because it makes the commodity cheaper for those holding other currencies. While demand concerns weighed on the market, supply is expected to remain tight because of Europe's planned embargoes on Russian oil and a slide in U.S. crude stockpiles. "The slight weakness in the dollar, the upcoming ban on Russian oil sales are certainly supportive as focus is shifting from recession fears to supply issues," said PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga. "The main catalyst, however, is reports that China may ease its zero-Covid restrictions, which would be a boon to its economy and oil demand." The EU ban on Russian crude imports is due to take effect from Dec. 5.

During long, cold winters, the U.S. Northeast consumes more oil and gas for heat than most of the country, especially the six-state New England region. Exacerbating those high energy costs, New England lacks enough gas pipeline capacity to meet all its heating and power generation needs on the coldest winter days. "The worse conditions get for Europe, the more exposed New England will be to elevated gas prices and LNG cargo shortages this winter." U.S. pipeline gas costs about $6 per million British thermal units, far cheaper than in Europe where gas is trading around $39 to attract LNG cargoes. But LNG accounts for about 5% of New England's gas supply, so power generators there are competing with global markets for the fuel.

☆ U.S. oil production nears 12 mln barrels/day, at pre-pandemic high
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, U.S., November 22, 2019. President Joe Biden has called on oil companies to boost production to reduce fuel prices. A little over two years after the pandemic wrecked havoc on demand and slashed profits, four of the five largest global oil companies brought in roughly $50 billion in net income in the most recent quarter. Crude production rose 0.9% to 11.98 million bpd in August, highest since March 2020, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in monthly figures. In top oil producing states, monthly output rose 1.6% to 5.10 million bpd in Texas and 0.6% to a record 1.58 million bpd in New Mexico, but fell 0.5% to 1.06 million bpd in North Dakota.

Some, like fossil fuel-burning Saskatchewan and Alberta, say the federal government's plan for a 2035 net-zero grid is unrealistic. The challenges Canada faces underline how difficult meeting net-zero electrification goals will be globally. Reuters GraphicsUnlike Canada, the United States has a federal electricity regulator and mostly delivers power through regionally integrated systems, which may make it more nimble to transform the grid. Provinces regulate Canada's electricity utilities, but the federal government has some jurisdiction over the environment. The Alberta Electric System Operator in June estimated it would cost an additional C$44 billion to C$52 billion ($38.18 billion) to meet Ottawa's 2035 net-zero mandate.

LONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - U.S. diesel supplies are becoming critically low with shortages and price spikes likely to occur in the next six months unless and until the economy and fuel consumption slow. The deficit has been worsening steadily since the start of the year when stocks were 15 million barrels (-11% or -1.18 standard deviations) below the ten-year average. Chartbook: U.S. distillate fuel oil inventoriesReflecting the intensifying fuel shortage, futures prices for ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) delivered in New York Harbor in December are trading at a premium of $60 per barrel over Brent. If confirmed that would take some of the pressure of distillate inventories. Rebalancing diesel supply will likely require a further rise in interest rates and tighter financial conditions in the United States and other major economies to reduce fuel consumption to more sustainable levels.

☆ Oil volatility could get more intense as Europe's December deadline approaches
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Singh notes there could be a significant drop in Russian oil in coming months as European restrictions on imports of oil and refined products, like diesel, take hold. Barclays expects about 1 million barrels of Russian oil to come off the market, but Singh said his estimate is low compared with others. He noted that China and India have increased their purchases of Russian oil, but so have other countries, like Turkey. We also believed the government in the U.S. was going to put a floor under oil prices by refilling the SPR," said Blanch. There's going to be a very large spread between European energy prices and U.S. energy prices."

☆ How to Know Whether a Heat Pump Makes Sense as a Home Upgrade
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Rachel Wolfe | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

This winter is set to be one of the most expensive in recent history to heat a home. For the roughly half of U.S. households that rely on gas furnaces, heating costs are estimated to rise 28% to an average of $931 this winter, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThe energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine has renewed interest in nuclear power. But without a reliable source of the high assay low enriched uranium (HALEU) the reactors need, developers worry they won't receive orders for their plants. But only TENEX, which is part of Russian state-owned nuclear energy company Rosatom, sells HALEU commercially at the moment. And this chicken and egg conundrum is complicating the smooth development of HALEU supply. "A reliable HALEU supply is one of many factors under consideration," the company said in an emailed statement.

☆ U.S. natgas languishes near 7-month low after big storage build
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Oct 20 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell to their lowest since March on Thursday, after a federal report showed a larger-than-expected storage build last week and as the market is expected to see increases in output. Front-month gas futures fell 1.9% to settle at $5.358 per million British thermal units, after sliding to $5.253 per mmBtu earlier in the session. It was also the fifth week in a row that stockpiles increased by over 100 bcf. With milder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would fall from 100.6 bcf per day this week to 95.5 bcf per day next week. Even though natural gas production growth will likely outpace domestic natural gas demand growth in winter 2022-2023, the continued growth in net exports and reduced natural gas storage inventories are expected to place additional upward pressure on natural gas prices this winter, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) said on Thursday.

☆ Get Ready for the Big Chill
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( The Editorial Board | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Winter is coming, and Americans may get a cold shock when they get their heating bills, according to a report released last week by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) that deserves more attention. Bundle up and set your thermostat at 68 degrees, or prepare to pay a bundle. Average U.S. household spending will increase for all heating fuels this winter (October through March), including natural gas (28%), heating oil (27%), electricity (10%) and propane (5%), the EIA forecasts. Blame higher oil and natural gas prices from demand outstripping supply. Coal plant shutdowns in particular have increased demand for natural gas to generate power.

☆ Estonia turns back to shale oil as it cuts off Russian power
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Janis Laizans | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

AUVERE, Estonia, Oct 19 (Reuters) - When Baltic states switched off Russian power and halted other imports in response to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, Estonia restarted its shale oil power plants and set back its efforts to phase out heavily polluting fuels. "This is just to replace the missing power supplies and compensate for high power prices." "This is just to replace the missing power supplies and compensate for high power prices," Stutter said of the shift back to shale oil. About 80% of cost of power from the power plants are environmental taxes. Eesti Energia said it had hired 600 people this year to ramp up shale oil production and to staff the power plants.

☆ Oil steady as recession woes counter positive Chinese signals
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Brent crude futures were down 1 cents, or 0.01%, to $91.62 a barrel, recovering from a 6.4% fall last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 15 cents, or 0.2%, at $85.46 after a 7.6% decline last week. Beijing will also greatly increase domestic energy supply capacity and step up risk controls in key commodities including coal, oil, gas and electricity, a senior National Energy Administration official said on Monday. "It's been another turbulent few weeks in oil markets from global growth concerns to super-sized OPEC+ output cuts and it seems they're yet to fully settle down," said Craig Erlam, senior markets analyst at OANDA. OPEC+ output cuts attracted funds back to the oil markets, with continued heavy buying of crude oil futures and options for a second straight week.

☆ U.S. Permian oil production forecast to hit record in November -EIA
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Oil output in the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, the biggest U.S. shale oil basin, is forecast to rise by about 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 5.453 million bpd in November, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its productivity report on Monday. U.S. crude oil output in major U.S. shale basins is due to rise by about 104,000 bpd to 9.105 million bpd in November, its highest since March 2020, the EIA projected. In the Bakken in North Dakota and Montana, the EIA forecast oil output will rise 22,000 bpd to 1.190 million bpd in November, the most since December 2020. Total natural gas output in the big shale basins will increase 0.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) to a record 95.1 bcfd in November, the EIA forecast. Gas output in the Permian and the Haynesville in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas will also rise to record highs of 21.1 bcfd and 16.1 bcfd in November, respectively.

☆ Higher Heating Bills Poised to Hit U.S. Households This Winter
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-16 | by ( Ryan Dezember | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

High fuel prices have been a big driver of inflation, pumping up the cost of summer travel and air conditioning, and federal energy forecasters say that staying warm this winter will be more expensive as well. Americans should expect bigger home-heating bills compared with last winter, thanks to higher prices for natural gas, heating oil, propane and electricity as well as slightly colder weather, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its seasonal outlook.

EU distillate inventories were just 360 million barrels at the end of September, the lowest seasonal level since 2004. The global petroleum and refining system has proved unable to keep up with rapid growth in fuel consumption as a result of the manufacturing and freight-led recovery after the coronavirus pandemic. In any event, accelerating refinery processing will simply push the shortage upstream from the fuel market to the crude market. But with spare capacity almost exhausted, a recession is the most likely route to rebalancing the distillate market in particular and the petroleum market in general. Related columns:- OPEC+ risks overtightening the oil market (Reuters, Oct. 12).

☆ Oil slides as U.S. crude and gasoline stocks surge
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Oil prices slipped in early Asian trade on Friday as U.S. crude and gasoline inventories jumped, while Saudi Arabia and Washington continued to clash over plans by OPEC+ to slash production. A larger-than-expected surge in U.S. crude oil in storage, along with a rise in gasoline stocks, weighed on oil prices. Crude inventories grew by 9.9 million barrels in the week to Oct. 7 to 439.1 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said, far larger than analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.8 million-barrel rise. Gasoline stocks jumped by 2 million barrels in the week to 209.5 million barrels, compared with analysts expected a 1.8 million-barrel drop. Keeping prices from falling farther was a steep drawdown in distillate stocks that came as heating oil demand is expected to rise as winter approaches.

They heat their home mainly with fuel oil, which costs them $4.57 a gallon, up from around $3.10 last year. Duke Energy customers in Indiana were recently hit with a 7% hike after a temporary 16% increase just this summer. Fuel oil customers often must pay for deliveries up front, and many suppliers have been less willing to offer payment plans because of market volatility, experts said. “I don’t have savings, period.”Brickey and Parks applied for LIHEAP assistance through District Three, a government cooperative geared toward senior citizens in southwest Virginia. They had three months of electricity paid for this past summer, along with $800 worth of fuel oil assistance last winter.

☆ U.S. power use to reach record high in 2022 as economy grows, weather hotter -EIA
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Oct 12 (Reuters) - U.S. power consumption will rise to a record high in 2022 due to rising economic activity and hotter summer weather, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Wednesday. EIA projected power demand will climb to 4,034 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2022, from 3,930 billion kWh in 2021, then slide to 4,001 billion kWh in 2023 as temperatures moderate. That compares with an eight-year low of 3,856 billion kWh in 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic depressed demand, and an all-time high of 4,003 billion kWh in 2018. That compares with all-time highs of 1,477 billion kWh in 2021 for residential consumers, 1,382 billion kWh in 2018 for commercial customers and 1,064 billion kWh in 2000 for industrial customers. EIA said natural gas' share of power generation would rise from 37% in 2021 to 38% in 2022 before sliding to 36% in 2023.

☆ U.S. EIA sees slower oil demand, output growth this year and next
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Overall U.S. demand for petroleum and other liquid fuels in 2023 is expected to rise slowly, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said, estimating growth at 190,000 barrels per day to 20.54 million bpd. In September, the EIA expected that growth to come in at 350,000 bpd. For this year, demand is expected to rise by 460,000 barrels per day to 20.35 bpd, also down from the previous forecast. U.S. crude output is now expected to increase by 610,000 bpd in 2023 to 12.36 million bpd, which would still be the most output, on average, for a year, in U.S. history. Output in 2022 is expected to average 11.75 million bpd, down from a previous estimate of 11.79 million bpd.

☆ Oil prices extend decline on recession fears, China COVID curbs
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Isabel Kua | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell for a third straight session on Wednesday as investors fretted about a hit to fuel demand from growing risks of a global recession and tightening COVID-19 curbs in China. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThe International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its global growth forecast for 2023 and warned of increasing risk of a global recession. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies and tends to weigh on oil and other risk assets. "Hotter-than-expected data may again tip investors’ sentiment over the edge, which will intensify the current recession fears, pressing on oil prices further," Teng said. The oil market is also being pressured by tightening COVID-19 curbs in China, the world's second-largest oil consumer.

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