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It's true the operating margin is expected to contract a bit from Tuesday's results. Latin America sales fell 31% due to lower sales volume that was only partially offset by higher prices. Higher prices also aided profitability, despite the dual headwinds of lower volumes and an unfavorable product mix. The adjusted operating profit margin for the fourth quarter is expected to be lower versus the third quarter result. All told, we believe the operating margin consensus on Wall Street needs an upward revision.
Persons: we've, James Umpleby, Umpleby, nonresidential, I've, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Justin Sullivan Organizations: Caterpillar, Revenue, CAT, U.S, North, Energy, SG, Dealers, Guidance Management, CNBC, Peterson Locations: North America, America, Europe, Africa, Asia, China, San Leandro , California
The second largest contributor to real gross domestic product growth in the third quarter came from business inventories (1.3 percentage points). South Korea's KOSPI-100 equity index, which is usually a good proxy for global trade given its heavy weighting towards export-oriented firms, rebounded strongly through the end of July. But the index has since weakened, consistent with the renewed downturn in volumes shown in the global trade index. UNCERTAINTYUncertainty about the economic outlook and ambiguous data are usually greatest around turning points in the business cycle. Related columns:- Persistent U.S. services inflation dampens oil outlook (October 13, 2023)- U.S. manufacturing rebound will stretch diesel supplies (October 5, 2023)- Global container freight stuck in doldrums (June 23, 2023)- Global freight shows signs of bottoming out (April 27, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.
Persons: Stringer, Korea's, John Kemp, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Global, Economic, Service, Real, Ministry of Transport, Treasury, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Qingdao, Shandong province, China, United States, Netherlands, CHINA, ASIA, Singapore, Asia, Europe, Japan, Narita, EUROPE Europe, Ukraine, Germany, doldrums
Results haven't been bad, but the macro is overwhelming everything, and fourth-quarter guidance is slipping. Here's a general rule for the stock market: earnings are the main determinant of stock prices in the long run, but in rare cases macro trends can overwhelm their message. Earnings are OK, but the trend is down On the surface, this looks like a good earnings season. With earnings, however, it's the trend in the forward quarter that matters: is the trend up or down? If Treasury yields stabilize or even move lower, that will be a more important factor than a slightly lower earnings environment.
Persons: Here's, CNBC's Robert Hum, Sellers, Chubb, Sherwin, Williams, Kimberly Clark, Campbell, Swift, FactSet's John Butters, what's Organizations: Microsoft, Waste, Norfolk, Procter, Gamble, Pepsi, Soft, Nvidia, Express, Visa, Southwest Airlines Locations: Meta, Winnebago, Corning, Big Tech, Treasurys
AI boom could feed precious metals' demand - Metals Focus
  + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Ingots of 99.99 percent pure silver are placed in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 25 (Reuters) - The artificial intelligence (AI) boom could support industrial demand for precious metals next year, although high interest rates and economic concerns may be near-term headwinds, Metals Focus said on Wednesday. Since most components used in conjunction with AI devices are sophisticated, "we expect to see widespread support for a range of precious metals bearing components," Metals Focus said in a note to investors. To cope with the evolution of AI algorithms, shipping growth for AI servers and switches will rise by double digits over the next few years and stimulate precious metals demand, Metals Focus said. Spot gold prices have climbed about 9% in the past two weeks, mainly fueled by safe-haven inflows triggered by the Israel-Hamas conflict, providing a tailwind for other precious metals as well.
Persons: Alexander Manzyuk, ChatGPT, Ashitha Shivaprasad, Arpan Varghese, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, Metals, Nvidia, Thomson Locations: Novosibirsk, Siberian, Russia, Israel, Bengaluru
Meta Platforms (META) reported strong third-quarter results thanks to a rebound in advertising sales and continued cost discipline in CEO Mark Zuckerberg's "year of efficiency. The stock traded higher most of the evening, clawing back some of the losses from Wednesday's broader market selloff. Lastly, Meta picked up the pace on share buybacks in the quarter, repurchasing $3.7 billion worth of stock. Meta repurchased $9.22 billion worth of stock in the first quarter and only $793 million in the second quarter. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Mark Zuckerberg's, Meta, clawing, Jim Cramer, we've, Zuckerberg, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Tobias Schwarz Organizations: Revenue, Meta, Nvidia, Reality Labs, Facebook, Apps, Apple, CNBC, Visitors, AFP, Getty Locations: U.S, Canada, Berlin
When asked about the risk outlook, Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz, former president of Goldman Sachs, advised caution but remained positive about alpha opportunities. "But I think the year ahead will certainly present incredible alpha opportunities. It doesn't mean there won't be great alpha opportunities." Schwartz also highlighted the need to stay liquid in times of war to be best prepared for uncertainty. "I think certain geopolitical risk, particularly war — again the tragedy of war and the loss of life — I think those are very difficult to price in the near term.
Persons: Harvey Schwartz, Goldman Sachs, Schwartz, Organizations: Investment, Bankers, Carlyle Group, Carlyle, International Monetary Fund Locations: Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Big Tech earnings This week is less about reading between the lines/through results, and contextualizing management comments, but rather it's about the market itself. AI - AI - AI! The options market is implying an earnings related move of 4.7%. Our options market sentiment score for GOOG/GOOGL is 80th percentile - which one may think of like a score/grade, so a B- in terms of options sentiment. Call open interest is 15% higher than put open interest, our options market sentiment score is 83% so B/B- territory.
Persons: ChatGPT, Bing, it's, AMZN, Mark Zuckerberg's, Zuckerberg, one's Organizations: Cambridge, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, BlackRock, Goldman, Equity, Big Tech, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Inc, Investors, YouTube, Amazon, Google, Gaming, Activision, Logistics, Federal Express, CNBC, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Visa, Mastercard, Merck, Co Locations: financials, Wells Fargo
Morgan Stanley vs. Goldman Sachs MS YTD mountain Morgan Stanely YTD Morgan Stanley reported better-than-expected third-quarter results on Wednesday. GS YTD mountain Goldman Sachs YTD As a point of comparison, outside our portfolio, Goldman Sachs on Tuesday also reported stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue and profits . Wells Fargo vs. JPMorgan WFC YTD mountain Wells Fargo (WFC) year-to-date performance On the money center side, Wells Fargo reported stellar quarterly results on Friday, Oct. 13, topping analysts' expectations for both earnings and revenues. Wells Fargo got a boost from better-than-expected net interest income and non-interest income, along with a decline in non-interest expenses. A combination file photo shows Wells Fargo, Citibank, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Jeff Marks, Wells Fargo, Wells, Morgan Stanley's, Morgan Stanely YTD Morgan Stanley, Marks, they've, James Gorman, Goldman, David Solomon, Mike Santomassimo, Jamie Dimon, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, JPMorgan Organizations: JPMorgan, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Goldman, JPMorgan WFC, JPMorgan Chase, Citibank, Bank of America, Reuters Locations: Wells, Wells Fargo
At Friday's close of 4224 on Friday, the S & P 500 is off 8% from the July high, with its equal-weighted version down 11%. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 YTD Yet the S & P was also at about the current level on Sept. 22, when the 10-year was a half-percentage-point lower, as well as on June 2, when it was at 3.7%. It's taken as a given in most corners of the investment business that higher rates available on bonds serve mechanically to compress equity valuations. Which is how the stock market finds itself here, with real or incipient breakdowns in regional banks and transportation stocks, the median S & P 500 component down for the year. The S & P 500 has gone on to drop a bit further, rally weakly and then roll back toward a five-month low.
Persons: James Carville, Bill Clinton, Stocks, it's, It's, Savita Subramanian, Jay Powell, LEI, Bond Organizations: Treasury, Bank of America, Group, Bloomberg News Locations: Friday's, corporates, Israel
Even the market's most serious risks likely won't derail the economy, according to the brain trust at $1.3 trillion Ameriprise Financial. The S&P 500 should score a mid- to high-single-digit gain next year, Saglimbene told Insider, if earnings grow as expected. So there's some risk that valuations are going to have to come in, and that path for interest rates is very important." Popular small-cap ETFs include the iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) and the Schwab US Small-Cap ETF (SCHA) while the Vanguard European Stock Index Fund ETF (VGK) and WisdomTree Europe Small-Cap Dividend ETF (DFE) also might fit with Ameriprise's projections. "At the same time, we'll have yields that are at some of the highest levels we've seen since the financial crisis.
Persons: Russell Price, Price, he's, Ameriprise's Anthony Saglimbene, Justin Burgin, Saglimbene, Burgin, There's, we've, Russell, Ameriprise, weren't Organizations: Bank of America, Nvidia, Saglimbene, Schwab, Vanguard, Index Fund, Fed Locations: Israel, Europe
Felipe Villarroel, portfolio manager at TwentyFour Asset Management, said he recently swapped some 10-year Treasuries for higher yielding 30-year Treasuries. At these levels, yields give “a massive cushion in your total returns" to protect against bond prices falling further, he said. Yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury were over 4.95% in Asia trade on Thursday, their highest level in more than 16 years, and 30-year yields breached 5% this month for the first time since 2007. An auction of 30-year U.S. Treasuries showed weak demand last week, sending yields higher. "The tightness that (bond yields) are imposing on the economy and markets is rising ... this caps the extra work the Fed needs to do," said Smith.
Persons: Jerome Powell, David Rubenstein, Amanda Andrade, Rhoades, Felipe Villarroel, Treasuries, Matt Smith, Ruffer, Buyers, Leslie Falconio, Ruffer's Smith, Smith, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Federal, Economic, of Washington, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Treasuries, TwentyFour Asset Management, Bank of America Global Research, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, BlackRock Investment Institute, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, Asia
Dan Lewis, co-founder and CEO of trucking logistics startup Convoy and a former Amazon executive, speaking at the CNBC Technology Executive Council summit it New York City on Oct. 29, 2019. Digital freight broker Convoy told employees Thursday that it's shutting down operations due to a "massive freight recession." The move comes just one week after supply chain software startup Flexport said it will lay off about 20% of its own workforce. Seattle-based Convoy was founded to disrupt the fragmented, low-tech freight brokerage business, in which truckers and customers connected by phone and fax. According to a memo sent to employees Thursday morning, Lewis said the company faced both an "unprecedented freight market collapse" and "dramatic monetary tightening."
Persons: Dan Lewis, Baillie Gifford, Lewis Organizations: Convoy, Amazon, CNBC Technology, CNBC Disruptor, U.K, Hercules, JPMorgan, Microsoft Locations: New York City, Seattle, Convoy's, Atlanta
WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump is crushing his Republican presidential rivals in the contest to raise campaign cash, putting the other White House hopefuls in an unenviable position before the first votes are cast in January. The amount of cash a candidate has in reserve offers a window into the health of their campaign. But the stark disparity between Trump, whose presidential campaign had $37.5 million at the end of September, and the balances held by his rivals like former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Gov. Pence entered October running on fumes with $1.1 million cash on hand and debts of $621,000. The rate at which he has burned through cash is not sustainable absent a large infusion of cash.
Persons: — Donald Trump, LET'S, It's, Trump, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, South Carolina Sen, Tim Scott, Trump's, That's, , Team DeSantis, , Haley, Scott, Scott —, DeSantis, MIKE, Mike Pence, Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, ” Pence, BIDEN, Joe Biden, Biden Organizations: WASHINGTON, Republican, White, GOP, , Florida Gov, Team, PALMETTO, PAC, Trump, Republican National Committee, Democratic National Committee Locations: Florida, South Carolina, Trump
Felipe Villarroel, portfolio manager at TwentyFour Asset Management, said he recently swapped some 10-year Treasuries for higher yielding 30-year Treasuries. At these levels, yields give “a massive cushion in your total returns" to protect against bond prices falling further, he said. Yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury were over 4.95% in Asia trade on Thursday, their highest level in more than 16 years, and 30-year yields breached 5% this month for the first time since 2007. An auction of 30-year U.S. Treasuries showed weak demand last week, sending yields higher. "The tightness that (bond yields) are imposing on the economy and markets is rising ... this caps the extra work the Fed needs to do," said Smith.
Persons: Jerome Powell, David Rubenstein, Amanda Andrade, Rhoades, Felipe Villarroel, Treasuries, Matt Smith, Ruffer, Buyers, Leslie Falconio, Ruffer's Smith, Smith, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Federal, Economic, of Washington, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Treasuries, TwentyFour Asset Management, Bank of America Global Research, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, BlackRock Investment Institute, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, Asia
JP Morgan, Nomura raise China's 2023 economic growth forecast
  + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
JP Morgan now expects China's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 5.2% in 2023, up from their previous forecast and Beijing's official target of a 5% growth. Data on Wednesday showed China's GDP grew 4.9% in July-September from the year earlier, higher than a Reuters poll expectation for a 4.4% increase. Zhu warned, however, of weak links in the economy, such as private investment and a housing market correction. "Weak nominal GDP growth suggests that the earnings and profit outlook remains a hurdle in the path to the recovery in private investment," he noted. JPM sees China's potential growth coming down faster than initially expected in 2024 and 2025 to a range of 4%-4.5% and 3.5%-4%, respectively.
Persons: Thomas Peter, JP Morgan, Nomura, Haibin Zhu, JPM, Zhu, Albee Zhang, Susan Mathew, Christian Schmollinger, Eileen Soreng Organizations: REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China
Ahead of the upcoming earnings season, Deutsche Bank has cut price targets on nearly 30 European stocks this week and upgraded just one to "buy." The bank's biggest cut to price target was for Denmark's energy giant, Orsted . In online food delivery, Deutsche Bank said its proprietary data shows demand stabilizing for takeaway apps across markets it monitors. Elsewhere in the European utility sector, the investment bank struck a positive tone in its outlook despite the price target cuts. Deutsche Bank analysts prefer integrated utilities like RWE , Enel , SSE , and E.ON , reiterating "buy" ratings on the stocks but lowering their price targets by 2% and 12%.
Organizations: Deutsche Bank, E.ON, Fineco Bank Locations: Swiss, Enel
P & G's results Wednesday demonstrate that its recent outperformance compared with its staples peers is justified. Quarterly commentary Procter & Gamble delivered on key metrics such as gross margins and organic sales growth. Secondly, excluding declines in China, P & G's volume was up in the rest of the world. Consumers in Western Europe remain relatively resilient, Schulten said, while describing P & G's business in Latin America as "on fire." P & G paid out $2.3 billion in dividends in its fiscal first quarter while repurchasing $1.5 billion worth of common stock.
Persons: Gamble, , we're, That's, Andre Schulten, it's, Schulten, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Joe Raedle Organizations: Procter, Gamble, Wednesday, Dow, Treasury, Walmart, Club, Costco Wholesale, Bunge Limited, Revenue, U.S, Wall, CNBC, Procter & Gamble, Getty Locations: China, U.S, Cincinnati, Western Europe, Latin America, Miami , Florida
Dollar Tree 's investments into improving its store experience for consumers are finally paying off, according to Goldman Sachs. Dollar stores have been recently slammed by deteriorating consumer fundamentals and investor sentiment, as gas prices have risen and student loan payments resumed. Dollar Tree, for example, has seen its stock slide 22% since the start of the year. McShane noted that Dollar Tree's "recent investments in price, labor and merchandising" should also serve as catalysts. All in all, McShane believes Dollar Tree's multiyear initiatives should propel the company forward to generate its targeted earnings of $10 per share in 2026.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Kate McShane, McShane, — CNBC's Michael Bloom
The stock market is showing signs of shaking off its late summer slump, paving the way for a potential year-end rally. The S & P 500 is up more than 3% since Oct. 3 and has risen comfortably above its 200-day moving average near 4,200. And other indexes that try to better represent the entire market than the S & P 500 are showing weakness, according to a Monday note from Strategas strategist Chris Verrone. "These have been very messy charts, but both the equal-weight S & P and the Russell 2000 are again back to negative standing in our proprietary trend model," Verrone said. "The S & P 500 continues to track its seasonal tendency as well.
Persons: JC O'Hara, Roth MKM, Jonathan Krinsky, Chris Verrone, Russell, Verrone, Verrone's, Jason Trennert, Frank Gretz, Wellington Shields, Gretz, Oppenheimer, Ari Wald, " Wald, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wall, Nasdaq, Wellington, CNBC Locations: U.S, uptrends
In this article COSTMUINTCMETAAMZN Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTAn Amazon delivery truck at the Amazon facility in Poway, California, Nov. 16, 2022. Investors seeking a sense of direction can turn to analysts who identify companies that have lucrative long-term prospects and the ability to navigate near-term pressures. To that end, here are five stocks favored by Wall Street's top analysts, according to TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performance. JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth noted the recent sell-off in AMZN stock and highlighted certain investor concerns. Also on investors' mind is Amazon Web Services' growth, with multiple third-party data sources indicating a slowdown in September.
Persons: Sandy Huffaker, Wall, Doug Anmuth, Anmuth, TipRanks, Needham, Quinn Bolton, Bolton, Sidney Ho, Ho Organizations: MU, Reuters Investors, Investors, JPMorgan, Federal Trade, Meta, Meta Connect, Intel, Systems Business, PSG, Bolton, TipRanks, Micron Technology, Deutsche Bank, Micron, Costco Locations: Poway , California
But according to Deepwater Asset Management, there's one under-the-radar AI stock that will be essential for the long-term infrastructure rollout of artificial intelligence. "An under-the-radar AI stock is Vertiv," Doug Clinton, managing partner at Deepwater, told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" last week. The company's specialty is graphics processing units, or GPUs, which have become the preferred chips for the large AI models that underpin generative AI software. "We think [Vertiv has] a great tailwind for the next three to five years as this AI hardware buildout continues," Clinton added. Alphabet Alphabet , which Clinton described as Deepwater's largest AI holding, has a "great catalyst" for the latter half of this year: the launch of its latest AI model Gemini.
Persons: Doug Clinton, CNBC's, Clinton, Kif Leswing Organizations: Nvidia, Microsoft, Asset Management, Deepwater, Deepwater Frontier Tech, Ark, Global, Robotics, Intelligence, Deepwater Frontier, Adobe, Unity Software Locations: U.S, LOUP, Netherlands, Taiwan, South Korea
The bull market in stocks turned one year old on Thursday, and a lot has happened in that time. The S&P 500 is up 22% over the past year, making it one of the weakest first years of a new bull market ever. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe bull market in the S&P 500 officially turned one-year old today. AdvertisementAdvertisement"The average first year [of bull market performance] has seen stocks gain nearly 39%," Detrick said, adding that this is the worst first year of a new bull market since 1987, when stocks gained 21% in their first year. The average S&P 500 performance during the second year of a bull market is 13.5%.
Persons: Carson Group's Ryan Detrick, , Ryan Detrick, Detrick, Joe Biden, there's Organizations: Service, Federal, Carson Group
Here's a rapid-fire update on all stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust, the portfolio we use for the CNBC Investing Club. After reducing expenses to improve margins on its retail business, Jim said it's on the right track. Costco Wholesale (COST): Costco remains one of Jim's favorite stocks in the entire our entire portfolio. Ford Motor (F): Jim expressed confidence in Ford CEO Jim Farley, as the targeted United Auto Workers strike approaches the one-month mark. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Jim Cramer's, Jim, there's, it's, Bausch, we're, We've, Coterra, Dupont, We're, Nelson Peltz, Peltz, Estee Lauder, Patience, Fabrizio Freda, Emerson, Jim Farley, Ford, Locker, Mary Dillon, GEHC, Vimal Kapur, Bruce Broussard, Broussard, he's, Eli Lilly, Lilly, Mark Zuckerberg, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley's, James Gorman, Laxman Narasimhan, Elliott, Stanley Black, Decker, Piper, Wells Fargo, Wells, Jim Cramer, Jim Cramer Rob Kim Organizations: Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust, CNBC, Club, Apple, Federal Trade, Broadcom, VMWare, Bausch Health, Caterpillar, Costco Wholesale, Costco, Coterra Energy, Exxon Mobil, Natural Resources, Disney, ESPN, Hulu, Comcast, Emerson, National Instruments, Ford, United Auto Workers, Nike, GE Healthcare, Electric, GE, Honeywell International, Honeywell, Humana, Linde, LIN, Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, Alto Networks, cyberattacks, Palo Alto Networks, Procter & Gamble, Pioneer, Exxon, Constellation Brands, Elliott Management, FactSet, TJX, Marshalls, Wynn Resorts, WYNN, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: China, U.S, Maxx, Las Vegas, Boston, Macau, Asia
Security is becoming increasingly crucial around the world, and Bank of America thinks investor portfolios can benefit from owning certain names. The bank on Monday released its "Future Security" primer, examining stocks through a lens of safety. Information security company CyberArk Software also made the list. CYBR YTD mountain CyberArk YTD "CyberArk is the clear leader within the PAM [privileged access market] market, with a robust technological moat," Liani said. TRU YTD mountain TransUnion YTD.
Persons: Felix Tran, Benjamin Netanyahu, CrowdStrike, Tal Liani, Matt Cohen, CyberArk, Liani, BofA, Heather Balsky, Tomer Zilberman, Andrew Obin, Obin, Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Israeli, Defense, U.S . Aerospace & Defense ETF, CyberArk Software, Motorola Solutions, Motorola, North, APG Locations: Israel, U.S
Markets could remain under pressure through the end of the year, and high dividend stocks are one option to help investors through the uncertainty, according to Morgan Stanley. Investors are also assessing pressures on the market driven by the surprise attack on Israel by Palestinian militant group Hamas over the weekend. To play another potential breakdown in the market, Morgan Stanley highlighted several dividend stocks that combine yield (how much a company pays out in dividends each year), dividend growth (how much that dividend grows over a period of time) and stability, and that look attractive on a three- to five-year basis. Morgan Stanley projects yields of 9.6% for Energy Transfer in 2024 and 9.9% for MPLX, a master limited partnership created out of Marathon Petroleum that operates crude oil and refined product pipelines. The bank's preference in tobacco is Philip Morris , whose 2024 dividend yield could be 5.5%, according to Morgan Stanley.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Philip Morris, they're, Hess, Morgan Stanley's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Hamas, Energy, Marathon Petroleum, Procter & Gamble, Colgate, Palmolive, Financial, Verizon Locations: Israel, Palestinian
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