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☆ Dollar slides, CPI data suggests Fed could slow pace of rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"Inflation is clearly moving in the right direction, and that keeps a more hawkish Fed at bay," he said. The spike higher in the yen versus the dollar stirred speculation the Bank of Japan intervened, which analysts doubted. Fed funds futures priced in a drop in expectations for the U.S. central bank's peak target rate, which fell below 5%. The likelihood of a 50-basis-point rate hike by the Fed instead of a 75-basis-point increase in December rose to 71.5%. CPI rose 7.7% in October on a year-over-year basis, down from 8.2% in the prior month, as headline inflation fell below 8% for the first time since February.

☆ Dollar on track for biggest plunge since 2015 as investors exit crowded positions
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. The scope of the dollar's moves against many currencies on Thursday has been breathtaking, as investors pull back from what has been seen as an extremely crowded trade in foreign exchange markets. Against a basket of currencies , the dollar was off about 1.9%, on pace for its worst day in nearly seven years. The reversal of these trades could fuel further dollar weakness, analysts said, if further signs of economic softening lead investors to bet on a less hawkish Fed. Daniel Wood, portfolio manager on the emerging markets debt team at William Blair, has increased bets on emerging market currencies rising against the dollar.

☆ Instant View: Comfortably cool U.S. CPI suggests aggressive Fed hikes taking hold
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

read moreMARKET REACTION:STOCKS: S&P 500 futures turned sharply higher and were up 3.1%BONDS: The yield on 10-year Treasury notes tumbled and was down 21.5 basis points at 3.927%; The two-year U.S. Treasury yield was down 26.6 basis points at 4.362%. The dollar index was off 1.3%COMMENTS:BRIAN JACOBSEN, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, ALLSPRING GLOBAL INVESTMENTS, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN“Well, that was a relief. And I think the expectation now is the Fed hikes rates 50 basis points in December. ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH, NEW YORK"A softer than expected inflation report is acting as a tailwind for markets. "Given just this data, it would allow the Fed to raise by only 50 basis points rather than 75 at the next meeting.

☆ VIEW Comfortably cool US Oct CPI spells relief for Fed
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

And I think the expectation now is the Fed hikes rates 50 basis points in December. ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH, NEW YORK"A softer than expected inflation report is acting as a tailwind for markets. Next, we immediately turned our attention to the CPI and that clearly came in better than expected. It rocketed the futures higher and then to top it off, weekly initial unemployment claims came in higher than expected. "Given just this data, it would allow the Fed to raise by only 50 basis points rather than 75 at the next meeting.

☆ Comfortably cool US CPI suggests aggressive Fed hikes taking hold
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

read moreMARKET REACTION:STOCKS: S&P 500 futures turned sharply higher and were up 3.1%BONDS: The yield on 10-year Treasury notes tumbled and was down 21.5 basis points at 3.927%; The two-year U.S. Treasury yield was down 26.6 basis points at 4.362%. And I think the expectation now is the Fed hikes rates 50 basis points in December. ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH, NEW YORK"A softer than expected inflation report is acting as a tailwind for markets. Next, we immediately turned our attention to the CPI and that clearly came in better than expected. "Given just this data, it would allow the Fed to raise by only 50 basis points rather than 75 at the next meeting.

☆ 3 Markets rejoice after surprisingly cool inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

YUNG-YU MA, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, BMO WEALTH MANAGEMENT, CHICAGO“The better-than-expected CPI numbers are welcome but show a lot of underlying volatility. What Powell said is that we are going to need a few more reads on good CPI data before he can say we’re done." Shelter is the main contributor to inflation and everyone should know by now that it’s a garbage indicator of where inflation is headed. ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH, NEW YORK"A softer than expected inflation report is acting as a tailwind for markets. “The good news is that we saw a significant sequential improvement, inflation is clearly moving in the right direction.

☆ What's really behind the sudden tension-release rally and whether it can last
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. -A sudden tension-release rally as a benign inflation report collides with a market wound tight against further adverse surprises, driving a burst of short-covering and a grab for equity exposure and takes the S & P 500 directly to its next noteworthy test. Still, the S & P is merely up less than 1% for November, so it remains whippy within a range. -The crypto tumult is far from sorted out but the risk rally today taking some pressure off. -VIX down almost 3 under 24, ratifying the lift in indexes and expressing relief at having the big known catalysts (election, CPI) past for now.

☆ Election forecasts are fueling the rally, but stocks need to hit this level to win over the bears
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. The multi-day bounce has now taken the S & P 500 back to where it sat as Fed Chair Powell started taking questions and overtly raised his own outlook for how high rates must go six days ago. The ICE Bank of America MOVE Index (the Treasury market's VIX) is still in an uptrend but these pullbacks have coincided with equity rallies all year. The average stock has dropped 36% from its high and the equal-weight S & P is at a relatively undemanding 14-times forward earnings. VIX bottoms (and equity rally tops) have come a few times this year near 19.

☆ Stocks have gained in the year after every midterm election since World War II - and investors can expect that run to continue even as the Fed keeps hiking rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 is likely to extend a historic run of positive returns after midterm elections, market strategists say. The S&P 500 in has posted positive returns in the 12 months after midterm elections since the end of World War II. The broad equity index has posted positive returns after each mid-term since 1946–after World War II ended in September 1945. He said heading into the year-end it appears that the S&P 500 has found a "very strong floor of support," at 3,500. Detrick said dovish signals from the Fed could leave the S&P 500 in 2023 with a higher post-midterm election return than the 14.1% average he had found.

☆ Gold heads for weekly loss on hawkish Fed stance
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A selection of gold jewellery displayed in the window of a store in the Dubai Gold Souk in Deira, in the United Arab Emirates. Gold prices were little changed on Friday, but the metal was headed for a second straight weekly drop as a stronger dollar and U.S. Federal Reserve 's hawkish policy stance clouded outlook for the non-yielding bullion. Spot gold rose 0.1% at $1,631.33 per ounce, as of 0043 GMT, but it was down 0.6% for the week so far. On Wednesday, the Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points and Chair Jerome Powell vowed to "keep at" their battle to beat down inflation. Gold is considered an inflation hedge, but rising interest rates dent the non-yielding asset's appeal.

☆ Dollar gains as traders gird for higher U.S. rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar initially fell on hints in the Fed's statement of smaller hikes ahead, but it was bid after Powell's hawkish stance about the trajectory rates. The Australian dollar fell 0.7% overnight and slipped further to a week-low of $0.6332 on Thursday. "This shall further embolden expectations of policy divergence with a much hawkish Fed relative to other central banks around the world. Japan's yen was notably firm in the face of dollar gains, and has held at 147.90 per dollar, prompting speculation of possible help from official intervention. China's yuan was hovering near record lows in offshore trade at 7.3408 per dollar, and other Asian currencies were under pressure.

REUTERS/Brendan McDermidNov 3 (Reuters) - Investors trying to navigate this year's relentless interest rate rises have more reasons to play it safe, after a pessimistic message from the U.S. Federal Reserve clouded the outlook for asset prices. Yet Chairman Jerome Powell’s message at Wednesday’s press conference – which followed its fourth straight 75 basis-point rate increase – did little to bolster the case for a less hawkish Fed. Investors are bracing for U.S. employment data on Friday for clues on whether the Fed’s rate hikes have begun to erode the economy’s strength. Signs that inflation is beginning to slow after the Fed’s barrage of rate hikes could bolster the case for a less aggressive monetary policy in coming months. Bartolini is becoming more bullish on mortgage-backed securities, which he expects to benefit from a decline in volatility sparked by smaller rate increases.

☆ Most Gulf markets drop as cenbanks toe hawkish Fed line
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Ateeq Shariff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

read more read moreSaudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the region's two largest economies, both increased rates by 75 basis points. The Saudi central bank, also known as SAMA, lifted its repo and reverse repo rates to 4.5% and 4%, respectively. Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (<.TASI>) dropped 0.8%, hit by a 1.6% fall in Al Rajhi Bank (<1120.SE>) and a 2.1% drop in Riyad Bank (<1010.SE>). Since Oct. 27, SNB market-cap has shed 25.74 billion riyals ($6.85 billion), according Refinitiv Eikon Data. Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (<.EGX30>) rose 0.2%, helped by a 1.2% gain in Commercial International Bank Egypt (<COMI.CA>).

☆ US stocks continue to fall as investors digest hawkish Fed outlook while jobs report looms
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks extended losses Thursday as investors remained worried over a hawkish Fed. Investors are also looking ahead to the Labor Department's monthly payroll report coming out early Friday. "Indicating that the Fed expects to extend its horizon for continuing to raise interest rates, Powell warns that the long slog will continue," said David Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth. "Powell threw a wet blanket on investors hoping that the Fed would transition to the final phase of the tightening process. " The world could face the worst financial crisis since World War II as hyperinflation looms, hedge fund Elliott Management said.

☆ Future rise after strong month on Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures up: Dow 0.58%, S&P 0.82%, Nasdaq 1.05%Nov 1 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures rose on Tuesday after a strong October on Wall Street, as investors clung to hopes that the Federal Reserve will signal a slower pace of future interest rate hikes as economic growth slows. But traders are hoping that the Fed could soon pause its rate hikes or at least shift to a less aggressive stance. ET, Dow e-minis were up 190 points, or 0.58%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 32 points, or 0.82%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 119.75 points, or 1.05%. ET, is expected to show manufacturing PMI fell to 50 last month after declining to 50.9 in September. Reporting by Sruthi Shankar and Amruta Khandekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb ChakrabartyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Analysis: With Fed in view, dollar rally dented but not quite done, investors say
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A less hawkish-than-expected message from the Fed at Wednesday’s monetary policy meeting, however, could exacerbate the currency's recent decline. That has made investors like Paresh Upadhyaya, director of fixed income and currency strategy at Amundi US, wary of calling an end to the dollar rally. Some central banks have already delivered smaller than expected rate increases in recent weeks, including the Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of Australia. "If the Fed pulls back that will allow (other central banks) to pull back as well," said UBS's Draho, who expects more dollar strength in coming months. Still, with the dollar near a 20-year high, further dollar gains are likely to be accompanied by increased volatility, analysts said.

☆ Credit Suisse downgrades Charles Schwab, says there is limited upside from here
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Investors can expect limited upside in Charles Schwab looking ahead to 2025, according to Credit Suisse. Analyst Bill Katz downgraded Charles Schwab to neutral from outperform, saying the stock is trading at a fair value after its outperformance this year. Charles Schwab shares are down just 5% this year, better than the near 19% decline in the S & P 500. The analyst's $84 price target, up from $80 previously, represents a little more than 5% upside from Monday's closing price. Meanwhile, the firm has resolved its cash sorting angst, which refers to the practice when some clients move cash out of investment funds into money funds.

☆ Asia stocks creep higher on hopes Fed will tone down hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But China stocks fell following weak economic data, and the MSCI index is set for a tenth consecutive monthly loss. The performance follows a Friday rally on Wall Street but comes with bond and currency markets tempering some wagers on a change in tone from the Fed. S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%. Corn futures rose 2%. Rates and Fed funds futures traders have now tempered initial optimism and see the funds rate hitting near 5% by May next year.

☆ Futures fall as investor hopes for a less hawkish Fed wobble
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The S&P 500 (.SPX) and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) had notched two straight weekly gains on Friday, supported by better-than-expected earnings from companies outside the technology sector as well as hopes for a less hawkish Fed in the future. Still, both indexes are set to record gains in October after two straight months of declines. Traders are nearly equally split in their expectations of the Fed delivering a smaller interest rate hike at its next policy meeting, with odds of a 50 basis point rate hike in December standing at 47.9%, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool. ET, Dow e-minis were down 146 points, or 0.44%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 20.5 points, or 0.52%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 80.25 points, or 0.69%. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju SamuelOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Goldman Sachs sees Fed rates peaking at 5% in March - Bloomberg News
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Oct 30 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc's (GS.N) economists said the U.S. Federal Reserve could bump up interest rates to as high as 5% by March 2023, 25 basis points above its earlier predictions, Bloomberg News reported on Sunday. Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Officer David Solomon last week said the U.S. Federal Reserve could hike rates beyond 4.5-4.75% if it does not see "real changes in behaviour." Goldman's economists added that the journey to 5% hike includes increases of 75 basis points this week, 50 basis points in December and 25 basis points in February and March, the report added. Goldman Sachs did not immediately respond to a Reuters' request for comment. The central bank is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points for a fourth straight time at the conclusion of its next policy meeting on Nov. 1-2.

☆ Gold flat; set for weekly gain on hopes of less hawkish Fed stance
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Spot gold was flat at $1,663.22 per ounce, as of 0130 GMT but it was up 0.4% for the week so far. The Fed is widely expected to announce another 75 basis-point rate increase at its meeting next week, although the central bank is seen slowing its aggressive pace in December. U.S. rate hikes increase the opportunity cost of holding zero-yielding bullion, while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.34% to 925.20 tons on Thursday. Spot silver eased 0.2% to $19.54 per ounce, platinum rose 0.2% to $962.03 and palladium gained 0.5% to $1,951.07.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Hopeful U.S. stock rally set for date with Federal Reserve reality
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 14, 2022. Meanwhile, cash-heavy investors afraid of missing out on a sustained rally have contributed to the bullish move, market participants said. More than 150 S&P 500 companies are due to report quarterly results next week, including Eli Lilly (LLY.N), ConocoPhillips (COP.N) and Qualcomm (QCOM.O). Investors will also closely watch next Friday's monthly jobs report for signs of whether the Fed's actions have tempered the labor market. "The market is thinking good things," said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco.

The all-inclusive figure that forms the basis for the Fed's target is likely to come in around 6%. SUPPLY, DEMAND, COMPETITIONThere has been sharp rhetoric about high corporate profits driving inflation - and indeed businesses like auto dealers enjoyed large markups during the pandemic, when demand surged and supply was limited. Based on those and other metrics, shelter inflation already may be declining even if government data doesn't show it yet. While that may not be the source of inflation, Fed officials feel that more balance between labor demand and supply will help ease price increases. "This pattern supports our view that wage growth and price inflation will moderate without a recession," Briggs wrote.

☆ Dollar slips as bets mount for less hawkish Fed, euro above parity
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The euro peaked at $1.00935 and sterling at $1.1645 in early Asia trade, both their highest since Sept. 13. "Our sense is that fundamentally, there are factors that are still favouring the U.S. dollar: rate differentials, the fact that the Fed still has more work to do," said Rodrigo Catril, senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank. The Canadian dollar last traded at 1.3549 per U.S. dollar. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index was up 0.06% at 109.63, following a 1.1% fall overnight. The kiwi rose to $0.58505, its highest in more than a month, and was last up 0.19% at $0.5842.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell to one-week lows as expectations of slower rate hikes gained after the Bank of Canada delivered a smaller-than-expected 50 basis point increase. Such hopes also come against the backdrop of economic indicators and corporate results suggesting that rapid increases to the borrowing cost is slowing the economic growth. Bets for a 50 basis point hike in December have increased to 55.3%, up from 47.4% a day ago, while the expectations for a 75 basis point hike have shrunk to 38.6% from 50.8%, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Visa Inc (V.N) jumped 5.2%, boosting the Dow, after the payments processor topped quarterly profit estimates on strong travel demand. The S&P index recorded 23 new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 73 new highs and 41 new lows.

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