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☆ Dollar to log quarterly drop as rate hike bets recede
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The euro rose 0.5% overnight after stronger-than-expected German inflation figures reinforced expectations that there are a few more rate increases left in the Euro zone. Through March, U.S. interest rate markets dramatically repriced the outlook and now see a roughly 40% chance that the Federal Reserve is finished with rate increases. On Friday the New Zealand dollar broke above its 50-day moving average and stood at a nearly two-week high of $0.6296. The Australian dollar nudged 0.2% higher to $0.6721 and is close to testing its 200-day moving average. Euro zone inflation data and U.S. core personal consumption expenditure - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - are due later in the day.

☆ Stocks rise and dollar falls while oil rallies
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 30, 2023. Economists polled by Reuters expect core prices rose by 0.4% in February and posted an annual increase of 4.7%. The U.S. dollar slipped to a one-week low against the euro as German inflation data helped lift the common currency. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) closed up 0.72% while emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) rose 0.67%. Gold prices gained with a weaker dollar and lower bond yields driving demand for the precious metal, while investors waited for U.S. inflation data to gauge the Fed's next move.

The London Stock Exchange and British officials are ramping up efforts to build a robust pipeline of Chinese firms, trading on London's status as Europe's deepest capital market. Edwards said he thought London was "an obvious choice" for many Chinese companies "given the issues around the U.S.-China relationship." However, the China-Switzerland Connect - an eight-month-old rival scheme - is gaining more traction among Chinese companies, partly due to a relatively easier process. The London Stock Exchange is "actively looking at how they can address some of the issues," Edwards said. Edwards said officials have identified hundreds of Chinese companies that could potentially issue GDRs in London and "are actively approaching them at the moment."

☆ Bank relief and Alibaba plans nudge stocks higher
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) gained for a third day in a row, rising 0.3%. It is eyeing two consecutive quarters in the green for the first time since the middle of 2021. The yen last traded at 132.75 to the dollar. Two-year yields are down 30 basis points for the quarter, the first quarterly fall since March 2020. Investors are hoping the plans signal authorities' tacit approval for growth and profit ahead.

☆ China's Alibaba to break up empire into six units as Jack Ma returns home
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Josh Horwitz | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Alibaba said the biggest restructuring in its 24-year history would see it split into six units - Cloud Intelligence Group, Taobao Tmall Commerce Group, Local Services Group, Cainiao Smart Logistics Group, Global Digital Commerce Group and Digital Media and Entertainment Group. Zhang will continue as chairman and CEO of Alibaba Group, which will follow a holding company management model, and also serve as CEO of Cloud Intelligence Group. The exception would be Taobao Tmall Commerce Group that handles China commerce businesses and will remain a wholly owned unit of Alibaba Group. Investors said the split signals the clearing of regulatory worries and allays concerns that Alibaba had lost the potential to grow. [1/2] The logo of Alibaba Group is seen at its office in Beijing, China January 5, 2021.

SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, March 29 (Reuters) - Investors are piling into China's tech, media and telecom shares, with speculative bets on chatbot development crowding out other sectors in a scenario that offers a stark contrast with global caution. On some days, including several last week, turnover in tech, media and telecom (TMT) stocks made up more than 40% of total market trade, according to China Merchants Securities' research, for a record concentration of trading volume. "In the stockmarket, AI will be an epic opportunity," said Niu Chunbao, a fund manager at Wanji Asset Management who worried he was missing the rally and bought AI stocks in recent weeks, after cutting exposure to new energy in February. An eye-catching tripling in the share price of chipmaker Cambricon Technology Corp (688256.SS) has driven its market value above $10 billion, despite the company reporting losses since 2017. ($1=6.8891 Chinese yuan renminbi)Reporting by Jason Xue in Shanghai and Tom Westbrook in Singapore; Editing by Clarence FernandezOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Alibaba to split into six units
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

March 28 (Reuters) - Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988.HK) said it plans split its business into six main units covering e-commerce, media and the cloud, adding that each of the units will explore fundraising or initial public offerings. STUART COLE, HEAD MACRO ECONOMIST AT EQUITI CAPITAL, LONDON"I am not sure how quickly Alibaba could be broken up. To me, it suggests something that Alibaba has been wanting to do for some time, but has been waiting for the opportunity to do so." With this expectation, investors will be more positive on Alibaba. It may reflect a new round of development for the business and reduce worries of regulatory issues."

☆ SVB deal helps to steady banks amid credit crunch concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The sudden collapse of tech-focussed SVB earlier this month destabilised the sector and drew some of Europe's biggest banking names into investors' focus. In March, the Stoxx index of European bank shares .SX7P is down more than 18% and the U.S. KBW regional bank index .KRX has lost 21%, with investors on edge about what's next. In Europe, bank bonds are under pressure and credit default swaps, or the cost of insurance against defaults, uneasily high. First Citizens said it would take on assets of $110 billion, deposits of $56 billion and loans of $72 billion, and expand in California. It will share further potential losses with the FDIC and the FDIC retains some $90 billion in securities held for disposal.

☆ NBA roundup: Nuggets belt Bucks in matchup of titans
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Antetokounmpo was aggressive from the start, with 13 points in the first quarter and 24 at halftime. But the Bucks went 4:10 without a point in the fourth period as the Nuggets built a 20-point lead. Booker led six Suns scoring at least 13 points. Biyombo also grabbed a game-high 13 rebounds. Tyrese Haliburton added 19 points and 13 assists.

☆ BofA, UBS trim forecast for Fed funds rate amid banking crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The Fed's benchmark rate stood in the range of 4.75-5% following a quarter percentage point hike on Wednesday. BofA analysts said the consequent unexpected tightening in bank lending standards could substitute for further hikes. BofA and UBS no longer expect an interest rate hike in June and see the Fed funds rate peaking in May at 5-5.25% and 5.25-5.5%, respectively. Goldman Sachs, which expected the Fed to pause on Wednesday, maintained its terminal rate forecast in the 5.25-5.5% range, but now sees rates peaking in June instead of July. Money markets, which priced in a terminal rate close to 6% by September just as early as this month, now see the rate peaking at 4.9% by May.

☆ Morning Bid: Europe's hikers look to carry on as Fed hesitates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom WestbrookMarkets reckon the Fed is pretty much done now with rate hikes, but see a different story in Europe. The European Central Bank set the tone last week by sticking with a 50 basis point hike. Today, it's over to Norges Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank to see whether the gap that traders have priced with the Fed is warranted. The result so far has been to send U.S. and European yields in opposite directions and to sell the dollar. Rhetoric from Threadneedle Street and Europe's central bankers today can test those shifts.

☆ Dollar slips as Fed outlook shifts
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

That's a contrast to Europe where markets see another 50 bp or so to go, and the gap sent the euro surging. Dollar/yen fell 0.7% overnight and was edging lower in the Asian morning at 131.19. "From the foreign exchange perspective, we think that argues for further dollar weakness as the ceiling for the Fed cycle has clearly come down." The risk-sensitive Australian dollar recoiled sharply from a two-week high of $0.6759 to be back at $0.6707 on Thursday morning. The New Zealand dollar also gave up overnight gains, but was firm in morning trade at $0.6238.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sought to reassure investors about the soundness of the banking system, saying that the management of Silicon Valley Bank "failed badly," but that the bank's collapse did not indicate wider weaknesses in the banking system. "These are not weaknesses that are running broadly through the banking system," he said, adding that the takeover of Credit Suisse seemed to have been a positive outcome. The Federal Open Market Committee policy statement also said the U.S. banking system is "sound and resilient." The much-anticipated rate cut by the Fed, which had delivered eight previous rate hikes in the past year, sought to balance the risk of rampant inflation with the threat of instability in the banking system. The banking sector has been in turmoil after California regulators on March 10 closed Silicon Valley Bank in the largest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis.

The latest move to restore calm to restive regional bank stocks came as Pacific Western Bank (PACW.O), one of the regional lenders caught up in the market volatility, said it had raised $1.4 billion from investment firm Atlas SP Partners. While that deal brought some respite to battered banking stocks, First Republic (FRC.N) remains firmly in the spotlight. For now, the rescue of Credit Suisse appears to have calmed the worst fears of systemic contagion, boosting shares of European banks (.SX7P) and U.S. lenders (.SPXBK). Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics'HEAD IN SAND'The wipeout of Credit Suisse's Additional Tier-1 (AT1) bondholders has sent shockwaves through bank debt markets. Seeking to boost confidence among investors rattled by its $3 billion Credit Suisse rescue, UBS said on Wednesday it would buy back 2.75 billion euros ($2.96 billion) worth of debt it issued less than week ago.

March 22 (Reuters) - U.S. authorities are set to explore ways to bolster financial stability, along with steps to tackle the problems facing First Republic Bank, as central banks assess whether turmoil in banking makes interest rate rises less pressing. SVB's collapse kicked off a tumultuous 10 days for banks which led to the 3 billion Swiss franc ($3.2 billion) Swiss engineered takeover of Credit Suisse by rival UBS (UBSG.S). While that deal brought some respite to battered banking stocks, U.S. lender First Republic (FRC.N) remains firmly in the spotlight. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics'HEAD IN SAND'The wipeout of Credit Suisse's Additional Tier-1 (AT1) bondholders has sent shockwaves through bank debt markets. For now, the Swiss bank rescue appears to have assuaged the worst fears of systemic contagion, boosting shares of European banks (.SX7P) and U.S. lenders (.SPXBK).

But an unexpected jump in UK inflation last month led investors to bet heavily that the Bank of England will raise interest rates by at least another 25 bps on Thursday. SVB's collapse kicked off a tumultuous 10 days for banks which led to the 3 billion Swiss franc ($3.2 billion) Swiss regulator-engineered takeover of Credit Suisse by rival UBS. While that deal brought some respite to battered banking stocks, U.S. lender First Republic remains firmly in the spotlight. First Republic (FRC.N) shares fell 9% in extended trade on Tuesday, having surged as much as 60% at one stage. For now, the Swiss bank rescue appears to have assuaged the worst fears of systemic contagion, boosting shares of European banks (.SX7P) and U.S. lenders (.SPXBK).

The Fed's relentless rate hikes to rein in inflation have been partly blamed for sparking the biggest meltdown in the banking sector since the 2008 financial crisis. For now, Credit Suisse's rescue appears to have assuaged the worst fears of systemic contagion, boosting shares of European banks (.SX7P) and U.S. regional lenders. The S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) rallied 3.6%, its largest one-day gain since November. Still, Australia's prudential regulator has started asking the country's banks to declare their exposure to startups and crypto-focused ventures following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, according to the Australian Financial Review. Market cap of US regional banks included in the S&P 500 regional bank indexDeputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said a review of the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and rival Signature Bank was in order.

☆ Asia shares bounce gingerly as bank fears linger
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.4%. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday, which left Treasuries untraded in Asia and lightened currency trade. S&P 500 futures were flat and European futures rose 0.5%. The tense calm follows a Swiss government-backed buyout of Credit Suisse by UBS that seems, for now, to have cauterised concerns over European financial stability. The broader path for rates, meanwhile, is set to become clearer later in the week when the Fed and Bank of England set policy levels.

March 21 (Reuters) - Investors on Tuesday took some heart from the rescue of troubled lender Credit Suisse by its Swiss rival UBS (UBSG.S), though concerns lingered about the risk of shockwaves further damaging credit markets and smaller U.S. banks. "The current situation in U.S. regional banks and Credit Suisse has raised concerns about contagion risk," said Grace Tam, chief investment advisor Hong Kong at BNP Paribas Wealth Management. Credit Suisse CEO Ulrich Koerner, who was expected to attend the conference, however, dropped out and the event was closed to media after the weekend rescue. Shares in First Republic Bank (FRC.N) halved on Monday on worries that last week's $30 billion infusion of capital would not be enough. The regulators said owners of this type of debt would only suffer losses after shareholders have been wiped out - unlike at Credit Suisse, whose main regulators are in Switzerland.

☆ Asia stocks bounce gingerly but bank fears lurk
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. futures rose 0.2% in early Asia trade. A Swiss government-backed buyout of Credit Suisse by UBS has cauterized the immediate concern over European financial stability. But the wipeout of some Credit Suisse bondholders has sent a shockwave through bank debt, and persistent signs of stress at U.S. regional lenders has investors on high alert. Bond markets whipsawed overnight as traders seek to figure out what the bank stress means for rates policy. U.S. interest rate futures have priced in just one more 25 basis point hike before a series of cuts beginning as soon as June.

In a package engineered by Swiss regulators on Sunday, UBS Group AG (UBSG.S) will pay 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.2 billion) for 167-year-old Credit Suisse Group AG <CSGN.S>, which was once worth more than $90 billion. European bank shares inched into positive territory (.SX7P) while shares in U.S. financial giants Citigroup (C.N) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) rose 1.2% and 0.7% respectively. Investor focus had shifted to the massive blow some Credit Suisse bondholders will take, a new worry in a rolling banking sector crisis sparked by the collapse of midsize-U.S. lenders Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank (SBNY.O) earlier this month. [1/2] Buildings of Swiss banks UBS and Credit Suisse are seen on the Paradeplatz in Zurich, Switzerland March 20, 2023. QUESTIONS FOR UBSThe deal to buy Credit Suisse will make UBS Switzerland’s only global bank and the Swiss economy more dependent on a single lender.

In a package engineered by Swiss regulators on Sunday, UBS will pay 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.23 billion) for 167-year-old Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN.S) and assume up to $5.4 billion in losses. Investor focus has now shifted to the massive blow some Credit Suisse bondholders will take, adding to anxiety about other banking sector risks including contagion and the fragile state of U.S. regional lenders. UBS acquiring Credit Suisse for 3 billion francs a week ago would have seemed like a terrific deal. Buildings of Swiss banks UBS and Credit Suisse are seen on the Paradeplatz in Zurich, Switzerland March 20, 2023. QUESTIONS FOR UBSThe deal to buy Credit Suisse will make UBS Switzerland’s only global bank and the Swiss economy more dependent on a single lender.

European bank shares slumped, with an index of leading lenders (.SX7P) down 5.8%. Credit Suisse shares slumped 62%, reflecting the huge loss its shareholders will see in their investment in the bank. Monetary authorities in Singapore and Hong Kong, where Credit Suisse hosts large regional offices, separately said the Swiss bank's business continued without interruption. And Credit Suisse urged its staff to go to work, according to a memo to staff seen by Reuters. Credit Suisse staff arriving to work in Hong Kong and Singapore on Monday morning, however, fretted about retrenchments and retaining business.

Swiss authorities brokering Credit Suisse's (CSGN.S) rescue merger with UBS (UBSG.S) have said 16 billion Swiss francs ($17 billion) of its Additional Tier 1 (AT1) debt will be written down to zero. That puts holders of the AT1 bonds lower in priority than even investors who hold an equity stake in Credit Suisse and can expect to get 0.76 Swiss francs per share. The shock realisation reverberated through Asian markets on Monday as traders hurried to reprice bank debt, and pushed bank stocks down. Asian AT1 bonds were down 4-5 points, while European ones were down 10 points, he said. But you did enter this thing believing that you'd be senior to the equity holders, that's the thing that people are worried about."

The European Central Bank vowed to support euro zone banks with loans if needed, adding the Swiss rescue of Credit Suisse was "instrumental" in restoring calm. There are also concerns about what happens next at Credit Suisse and what that means for investors and employees. The Swiss central bank said Sunday's deal includes 100 billion Swiss francs ($108 billion) in liquidity assistance for UBS and Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse shares had lost a quarter of their value last week. The bank was forced to tap $54 billion in central bank funding as it tries to recover from scandals that have undermined confidence.

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