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☆ Australia economy set to slow amid downside risks -IMF
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Australia should continue to tighten monetary and fiscal policy to contain inflation even as its economy is set to slow sharply next year amid a host of downside risks, including falling house prices, the IMF said on Wednesday. However, the IMF forecast that to slow to just 1.7% in 2023/2024 given higher interest rates, persistent inflation, weakening export demand, and declining housing prices. "Between the slowing global growth and some still-resilient domestic buffers, Australia is on a narrow path for a soft landing," the IMF report said. "While politically challenging, an economy-wide carbon price is the most effective way to achieve emission reductions," the IMF said. Australia had a carbon price under a former Labor government but that was axed by the Liberal National coalition when it won power in 2013.

☆ Lower-income Canadians to be hit harder by economic slowdown- BoC's Macklem
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

OTTAWA, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Lower-income Canadians will be disproportionately affected by the slowdown in economic activity that is needed to rebalance supply and demand to ease inflationary pressures, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said on Monday. "Slowing economic growth will disproportionately affect our most vulnerable households," he said in opening remarks at the Conference on Diversity, Equity and Inclusion in Economics, Finance and Central Banking. "But once we rebalance demand and supply, growth will pick up, our economy will grow solidly, and the benefits of low and predictable inflation will be restored," he added. Reporting by Steve Scherer and Julie Gordon in OttawaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Analysis: Investors face expensive quest for year-end cash and safe assets
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Money markets too suggest securing cash and quality assets investors need to make a smooth transition into 2023 will be expensive. But analysts noted year-end is still 1-1/2 months away and the spread tends to widen in late November as demand for cash rises. The risk is any unexpected news emerging as liquidity thins further in December, requiring investors to reconsider positioning. BofA said it now sees year-end German repo 6 percentage points below the overnight rate, which it said would still make it the most expensive on record for investors borrowing bonds then. "It's still early days, but (last year's repo pricing) would probably be the best case already in terms of year-end pricing," Commerzbank's Leister said.

LONDON, Nov 9 (Reuters) - China’s diesel exports accelerated significantly in September after being severely restricted over the previous 13 months, according to data from the customs service. Faster exports will provide some relief amid a global diesel shortage, but are unlikely to be enough to stabilise and rebuild global inventories, or offset any future disruption as a result of sanctions on Russia’s fuel exports. Diesel exports were reduced by a total of 16.3 million tonnes, or 122 million barrels, over 13 months compared with the pre-June 2021 trend. Recently, extra quotas have been awarded, which should help relieve some of the global shortage, provided they are maintained at a higher level. Extra diesel shipments out of China will help, but rebalancing the diesel market still requires slower growth in the global economy and fuel consumption.

☆ The economy was a big concern for voters. Thursday’s inflation report likely won’t help
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Minneapolis CNN —The economy was top of mind for voters in the midterm elections, exit polls showed, adding even more weight to a highly anticipated inflation report due out on Thursday. However, higher energy prices likely pushed up monthly inflation by 0.6%. Additionally, the latest inflation numbers could benefit from the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics tabulates the index. To calculate medical services prices, the agency uses health insurance providers’ retained earnings, or profit margins. Unlike in goods, where inflationary inputs include supply chains and commodity prices, the biggest input into service-providing industries is labor costs.

And the stock market isn't the only aspect of the economy that's hurting soon-to-be retirees. Saving for retirement 101Most people have three primary sources of income in retirement: personal retirement accounts (401(k)s and IRAs), pensions and Social Security. In retirement, the individual would withdraw no more than 4% of their retirement portfolio annually, while adjusting for inflation. If you've been maintaining a diversified retirement portfolio with 60% allocated towards stocks and 40% towards bonds, you've probably noticed both asset classes taking big hits. But of course, if the market hasn't bottomed yet, you're taking a risk.

☆ Hong Kong's Lee touts 'China advantage' to rebuild city's image as financial hub
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/4] Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee speaks during the Global Financial Leaders Investment Summit in Hong Kong, China November 2, 2022. REUTERS/Tyrone SiuNov 2 (Reuters) - Hong Kong leader John Lee pitched the city's connection with China in an address to some of the world's top financial executives, as he pushes to rebuild the COVID-ravaged city's image as a major financial hub. Chief Executive Lee told the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit on Wednesday the city would continue working towards lifting COVID restrictions. "Hong Kong remains the only place in the world where the global advantage and the China advantage come together in a single city," Lee said. Authorities, he said, were keen for more international companies to list in Hong Kong to grow the city's capital markets activities.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)’s authoritative Business Cycle Dating Committee itself uses a two-part classification – “expansion” and “contraction”. Growth in business activity tends to accelerate and decelerate; outright declines in the level of activity are relatively rare. UNDECLARED RECESSIONSThe NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee formally declared only six recessions between 1980 and the end of 2020. They were periods of little or no growth in an otherwise uninterrupted business cycle expansion and tend to be forgotten. Mid-cycle slowdowns also reset the economy by easing capacity constraints and relieving upward pressure on prices and wages.

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☆ Top ranked advisors say these are the 3 biggest investing mistakes people make during recessions
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Kate Dore | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

These are some of the biggest investing mistakes, according to top advisors. "But you have to remember the stock market has done well over time." "We're more fixated on what we could potentially lose on paper than what opportunities pass us by that we never capitalize upon," said Josh Reidinger, CEO of Waverly Advisors in Birmingham, Alabama, which ranked No. Josh Reidinger CEO of Waverly AdvisorsThere's a risk of missing future gains when steering clear of the stock market, as research shows some of the best returns may follow the biggest stock market dips. Josh Reidinger CEO of Waverly AdvisorsMistake No.

LONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - U.S. diesel supplies are becoming critically low with shortages and price spikes likely to occur in the next six months unless and until the economy and fuel consumption slow. The deficit has been worsening steadily since the start of the year when stocks were 15 million barrels (-11% or -1.18 standard deviations) below the ten-year average. Chartbook: U.S. distillate fuel oil inventoriesReflecting the intensifying fuel shortage, futures prices for ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) delivered in New York Harbor in December are trading at a premium of $60 per barrel over Brent. If confirmed that would take some of the pressure of distillate inventories. Rebalancing diesel supply will likely require a further rise in interest rates and tighter financial conditions in the United States and other major economies to reduce fuel consumption to more sustainable levels.

☆ Investors need to rebalance their portfolios by the end of 2023, says Aperture Investors' Peter Kraus
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors need to rebalance their portfolios by the end of 2023, says Aperture Investors' Peter KrausPeter Kraus, chairman and CEO of Aperture Investors, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss the key takeaways from this earnings season and whether he would buy into the market right now.

☆ Single-bond ETFs may be the key to revolutionize trading Treasurys
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

In August, F/m Investments, a $4 billion multi-boutique investment advisor, launched three single-bond ETFs: the US Treasury 10 Year ETF (UTEN) , US Treasury 2 Year ETF (UTWO) , and US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF (TBIL) . However, Jared Dillian, senior editor at Mauldin Economics, argued in an August Bloomberg op-ed that single-bond ETFs "will be one of the more successful product launches of the year." A solution to investing problemsBuying specific Treasury bonds or notes entails opening an account on TreasuryDirect and buying bonds from the federal Treasury Department at auction. With these ETFs, "you're getting access to the U.S. Treasury on-the-run 2 Year. F/m Investments charges 15 basis points for its single-bond ETFs, and the funds distribute dividends monthly.

Oil and gas producers are looking to increase production as crude prices stay near eight-year highs, boosting demand for Schlumberger's equipment, services and technology. Analysts had expected Schlumberger to report earnings of 55 cents per share, according to Refinitiv IBES. Shares jumped more than 2% in pre-market trading and Wall Street analysts said the results were positive. Wall Street had expected revenue of $7.1 billion for the quarter. Rival Baker Hughes Co (BKR.O) topped Wall Street expectations for third-quarter adjusted profit on Wednesday.

LONDON, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Global freight volumes have begun to fall as overall consumer and business spending slows and the composition rotates from merchandise back to services after the pandemic. Chartbook: Global freight and manufacturing activityMANUFACTURING STALLSThe slowdown will gradually unblock supply chains and ease some of the intense upward pressure on merchandise prices that has occurred since mid-2020. The World Trade Organization forecasts merchandise trade will increase by just 1.0% in 2023 after rising 3.5% in 2022 (“Trade growth to slow sharply in 2023”, WTO, Oct. 5). The forecast growth in world merchandise trade volumes next year would be among the slowest rates in the last 40 years. The slowdown in industrial output and freight has already been underway for at least the last 3-6 months in most countries.

☆ The Trump and COVID eras tanked immigration to the US. Reversing that could help ease a recession risk, sky-high inflation, and a labor crisis.
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Ben Winck | Jason Lalljee | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

More than a third of Americans want less immigration, but more could actually help cool inflation. Letting more people move to and work in the US could close that gap and ease inflation without a severe recession. While many Americans view immigration as a threat to the country's financial well-being, data continually suggests that the opposite is true. There remain some 10.1 million job openings but only about 5.8 million workers available to fill them. Increased immigration, then, provides a rare chance to rebalance the labor market and drag inflation lower without driving millions of Americans out of work.

EU distillate inventories were just 360 million barrels at the end of September, the lowest seasonal level since 2004. The global petroleum and refining system has proved unable to keep up with rapid growth in fuel consumption as a result of the manufacturing and freight-led recovery after the coronavirus pandemic. In any event, accelerating refinery processing will simply push the shortage upstream from the fuel market to the crude market. But with spare capacity almost exhausted, a recession is the most likely route to rebalancing the distillate market in particular and the petroleum market in general. Related columns:- OPEC+ risks overtightening the oil market (Reuters, Oct. 12).

While estimates of how much pension funds need to sell vary they are in the hundreds of billions of pounds, and it is not known how much funds have already raised in cash. Tuesday's BoE intervention was targeted at buying index-linked bonds, a far smaller market than gilts, dominated by pension funds and which suffered another significant selloff this week. He estimates pension funds could sell assets totalling around 300 billion pounds as they adjust hedging positions, although it is not clear how much they may have sold already. He estimated 100 billion pounds could come from gilts and the rest from assets such as global credit, global equities and asset-backed securities. "The bottom line is a lot of schemes need to rebalance their portfolios," he said.

In trying to keep inventories low through the cycle, OPEC+ risks worsening any global recession, and overtightening the market during the next upturn. Chartbook: Global petroleum inventoriesSEVERELY DEPLETED INVENTORIESThe extreme backwardation in Brent futures prices is a symptom global petroleum inventories have become uncomfortably low. BALANCING RISKS AMID UNCERTAINTYWhen spare capacity and inventories are both low, the volatility-reducing course is to put whatever spare capacity there is into production immediately to accumulate inventories pre-emptively. But the timing, duration and depth of the next downturn remains uncertain as does any reduction in oil consumption, either in absolute terms or relative to trend. Related columns:- OPEC+ cut draws hedge funds back into the oil market (Reuters, Oct. 10)- Oil investors ready for recession (Reuters, Oct 3)- Recession will be necessary to rebalance the oil market (Reuters, Sept. 22)- Oil prices and financial markets brace for recession (Reuters, Sept. 15)- John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

☆ U.S. dollar rises, yen not far from 24-year trough that prompted intervention
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"I can see it propelling the dollar higher still, even though people think it's a crowded trade. Overall, dollar sentiment remained positive as worries about rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions unsettled investors, while the yen hovered near the level that prompted last month's intervention. In afternoon trading, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.2% to 113.25, not far from a 20-year high of 114.78 it touched late last month. The dollar touched a three-week high against the yen of 145.895 , just shy of the 24-year peak of 145.90 hit before the Japanese government stepped in to prop it up three weeks ago. Meanwhile, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar hit a 2-1/2-year low of $0.6248 and was last down 0.4% at US$0.6270.

☆ Factbox: Ticking bomb: The risks the IMF sees to financial stability
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Oct 11 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday of a disorderly repricing in markets, saying global financial stability risks have increased, raising the potential of contagion and spillovers of stress between markets. The IMF's Global Financial Stability Report, which warned of the risks to markets, came as the Fund also cut its growth outlook in its latest World Economic Outlook. read moreHere are key indicators of stress and risks the IMF sees to financial stability:Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register* LIQUIDITYDeteriorating market liquidity conditions may poserisks to financial stability, the IMF said. * CURRENCY SWAPSInternational short-term dollar funding markets have begun to show signs of concern with a widening of the cross-currency basis swap spreads, a proxy for the marginal cost of offshore US dollar funding, the IMF said. * LEVERAGE LOAN MARKET CREDIT CRUNCHTighter financial conditions, mounting liquidity strains, and decelerating earnings growth could presage ratings downgrades and eventual defaults and lower returns for collateralized loan obligations (CLO) investors, the IMF said.

☆ Bank of England’s pension decision sends shocks through financial markets
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of England’s pension decision sends shocks through financial marketsTim Seymour and Bonawyn Eison join CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders to discuss the Bank of England's warning that UK pension funds have three days to rebalance their assets.

☆ BoE should extend bond buying to Oct 31 or "possibly beyond"-pensions trade body
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - The Bank of England should consider continuing an emergency bond-buying programme aimed at stabilising the market for UK government debt to October 31 "and possibly beyond", the Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association said on Tuesday. "...many feel it should be extended to the next fiscal event on 31 October and possibly beyond, or if purchasing is ended, that additional measures should be put in place to manage market volatility". The BoE on Monday doubled the maximum size of the buybacks and on Tuesday expanded the programme to include inflation-linked gilts, a move welcomed by the PLSA. read more read more"We continue to encourage all pension funds and service providers to use this period to take further steps to rebalance portfolios and ensure necessary measures are in place to protect their strategies in uncertain times," the trade body said. ($1 = 0.9061 pounds)($1 = 0.9057 pounds)Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Carolyn Cohn, editing by Sinead CruiseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Stock futures rise slightly ahead of key inflation data, Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures ticked higher Tuesday night as investors awaited the latest inflation numbers and the minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were each up about 0.2%. The moves came after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 0.65% and 1.1%, respectively, to post their fifth straight day of declines. Bank earnings will kick off later in the week. Despite lower expectations, S&P 500 earnings are still expected to grow.

Compounding the pain, providers of so-called liability-driven investment strategies (LDI) are demanding more cash to support new and older hedging positions. The cash buffers now required are about three times bigger than previously requested, according to four consultants advising pension schemes, as market players seek bigger cushions against more volatile moves in bonds. Estimates of how much pension funds need to sell range but are in the hundreds of billions of pounds, although it is not known how much in assets schemes have sold already. "We are definitely not there," he said, referring to whether funds were close to raising the required cash by selling assets. He estimated 100 billion pounds could come from gilts and the rest from assets such as global credit, global equities and asset-backed securities.

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