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☆ Live Updates: Inflation Cooled Further in June
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | Danielle Kaye | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

On a monthly basis, prices fell overall, and the core price index was up just 0.1 percent. Fed officials have been watching for signs that inflation is still coming down as they contemplate when to begin cutting interest rates. And Thursday’s inflation reading is poised to be markedly cooler than the 9.1 percent rate when inflation peaked at in 2022. Fed officials meet in late July, but few economists expect a move that early. Fed policymakers officially target 2 percent annual inflation, and they define that goal using the Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation measure, which is related to Thursday’s Consumer Price Index but released later in the month.

Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell, that’s Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Fed

☆ US Job Market Is Getting Worse, Unemployment Rising. Fed Needs to Cut.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

But increasingly, there are signs that the job market is losing some steam. Whether it's hard data like the unemployment rate or sentiment-based surveys of businesses, it's clear that the labor market has cooled off. It's clear that the Federal Reserve should be the force to slow down the sliding job market. The job market is at an inflection pointThe emergence of the US from the worst of the pandemic shutdowns in early 2020 helped usher in a historic boom for the labor market. If 3% growth could not keep unemployment from climbing in 2023, why would the unemployment rate remain stable in 2024 if growth comes in substantially lower?

Persons: Beveridge, Taylor, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, Fed, Atlanta, Federal Reserve

☆ Thursday was a historically strange day in the stock market. That may be good news
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Wall Street saw a dramatic shift in market trends on Thursday, with winning and losing stocks swapping places for a day. The Russell 2000 small-cap index, which has struggled to find its footing all year, jumped more than 3% on Thursday. Thursday was just the second day since 1979 when the Russell 2000 rose more than 3% while the S&P 500 declined. The Nasdaq Composite underperformed the Russell 2000 by more than 5 percentage points in what appears to be biggest daily gap on record. "Today's an important day," Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research said on CNBC's "Closing Bell.

Persons: Russell, Ed Yardeni, Jerome Powell Organizations: Nvidia, Apple, Nasdaq, Investment Group, Pfizer, Yardeni Research, Federal Reserve

☆ The inflation report is great news for the prospect of a rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Odds of a cut at the July policy meeting rose, though the strongest odds are still for a September cut. AdvertisementUS stocks edged higher on Thursday after the June consumer price index report showed inflation cooled more than anticipated last month. Odds of a cut at this month's policy meeting edged slightly higher after the CPI report dropped, though the strongest odds are still for a September cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors see about an 80% chance of a rate cut in September, with odds growing for another cut at either the November or December meeting. "The latest inflation numbers put us firmly on the path for a September Fed rate cut," Seema Shah, chief global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, said.

Persons: —, Seema Shah Organizations: Treasury, Fed, Service, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Asset Management

Supply and DemandThe case for housing deregulation starts with Econ 101: Allowing builders to significantly increase housing supply leads to much lower prices. It isn’t rising demand, as the U.S. population rose even faster back when housing prices were roughly stable. Standard of LivingWhat would happen if homebuilders could once again freely build until housing prices were driven back down to cost? The admittedly small number of studies on the link between YIMBY and babies support common sense: Less regulation lowers housing prices, and lower housing prices generally raise birth rates and hasten child-bearing. In a rational world, the panacea policy of housing deregulation would be a done deal.

Persons: Ben Denzer, Taylor, Wharton, homebuilders, Thomas Piketty’s, ”, Matthew Rognlie, Peter Ganong, Daniel Shoag, Anne Case, Angus Deaton Organizations: Republicans, Research, Area, Wharton, Francisco, Francisco Los Angeles New, Francisco Los Angeles New York Phoenix Denver Houston Dallas, Japan Japan France France Britain Britain, Japan Japan France France Britain Britain Canada, → Utah Nevada Arizona New, San, San Francisco New, Atlanta Houston Boston, Democrats, Republican Locations: Minnesota , Oregon, California, New York City, Houston, Dallas, Francisco Los, Francisco Los Angeles New York, Wharton, United States, Japan, France, Britain, Canada, U.S, Japan Japan France France, Japan Japan France France Britain Britain Canada Canada, Bay, Dodge, → California Nevada Florida New York Arkansas, → Utah Nevada Arizona, → Utah Nevada Arizona New York West Virginia, Washington, San Francisco, San Francisco New York Los Angeles Rochester, N.Y, Atlanta

☆ The Nasdaq looks ugly, giving many stocks in the broader market their time in the sun
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

However, most stocks were up with about 6 to 1 advancers to decliners on the New York Stock Exchange. The reverse happened Thursday as those stocks became a source of funds to buy the rest of the market, especially the housing stocks, solar stocks, real estate stocks, utilities, cyclical, and small caps. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on July 11, 2024 in New York City.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Russell, Banks, Wells, Morgan Stanley, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, New York Stock Exchange, Meta, Palo Alto Networks, Big Tech, FedWatch, CPI, PPI, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Traders, Getty Locations: decliners, Wells Fargo, New York City

☆ Here's the inflation breakdown for June 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

They also generally like to examine "core" inflation readings. The monthly core CPI reading was 0.1% in June, the smallest increase in about three years, since August 2021. Shelter inflation has moderated much slower than expected, one of the big reasons inflation hasn't yet fallen back to target, economists said. There were encouraging signals in the latest CPI report: Monthly shelter inflation dropped to 0.2% after being stuck at 0.4% for four consecutive months. Services inflation is the trouble spotInflation for physical goods spiked as the U.S. economy reopened in 2021.

Persons: David Paul Morris, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Sarah House, Aubrey George, George, Joe Seydl, Olivia Cross Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, U.S . Labor Department, Moody's, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S . Federal Reserve, CPI, Housing, of Labor Statistics, Morgan Private Bank, Capital Economics, BLS Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, North America

☆ Why fast food value menus aren’t as good a deal as you might think
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

But just how much value is there in these kinds of “value” meals? Well, actually, not as much as you may think, since prices for many key ingredients used in value meals are coming down. Cheese, potatoes and tomatoes are getting cheaperMany of the recently announced value meals use cheese, potatoes and tomatoes. Meat eaters benefit the most from the value meal warIf you eat meat, you’re more likely to benefit from some value menu items. Given that meat prices are rising at a faster pace than most foods, it’s no wonder most fast-food chains are only offering value menus for a limited time.

Persons: McDonald’s, Joe Erlinger, ” Organizations: New, New York CNN, Taco Bell, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, McDonald’s, Wall Locations: New York, Burger, McDonald’s USA

☆ Jim Cramer: Costco's membership fee hike actually signals good news for inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC's Jim Cramer said Thursday that Costco 's membership fee hike suggests inflation is becoming more manageable for consumers. The fee increase "is significant because management said it wasn't going to raise its membership fee until they saw inflation under control," Cramer said on " Squawk on the Street ." Costco late Wednesday announced its long-awaited membership fee increase — the first since 2017. The membership fee hike has been a second catalyst the Club has been waiting for. Profits from the fee increase will go into the bottom line while some will be reinvested in the business.

Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, — Organizations: Costco, Gold, CNBC, Management Locations: U.S, Canada

☆ Oil prices rise as inflation eases, bolstering market hopes for Fed rate cut later this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Crude oil futures rose Thursday as inflation eased, bolstering hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year. Lower interest rates typically stimulate economic growth, which can bolster crude oil demand. The inflation and interest rate outlook overshadowed mixed signals on oil demand for this year. The IEA is forecasting global oil demand growth will average just under 1 million bpd in 2024 due to subpar economic growth, greater energy efficiency and electric vehicle adoption. OPEC, on the other hand, is much more bullish, forecasting demand growth of 2.2 million bpd as the cartel sees solid economic growth of 2.9% this year.

Organizations: Federal Reserve, Department of Labor, Reserve, International Energy Agency, IEA Locations: Stanton , Texas, Paris, China

☆ Inflation falls 0.1% in June from prior month, helping case for lower rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The monthly inflation rate dipped in June, providing further cover for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates later this year. The all-items index rate fell from 3.3% in May, when it was flat on a monthly basis. The annual increase for the core rate was the smallest since April 2021. A 3.8% slide in gasoline prices held back inflation for the month, offsetting 0.2% increases in both food prices and shelter. Housing-related costs have been one of the most stubborn components of inflation and make up about one-third of the weighting in the CPI, so a pullback in the rate of increase is another positive sign.

Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI Locations: U.S

☆ Jim Cramer explains how to trade Thursday's tech sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

After buyers fled from Big Tech on Thursday, CNBC's Jim Cramer advised investors to take advantage of the rotation but beware that it may not last long. It's historically broadened things out, and tomorrow you'll get another chance to make money with today's winners," he said. "But if interest rates stop going down, and stop going down hard, then please do not overstay your welcome." The move was propelled by a low consumer price index reading, fueling Wall Street's hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Housing and industrial stocks such as Home Depot and Caterpillar saw a boost as they stand to benefit from lower rates.

Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, you'll, Cramer Organizations: Big Tech, Nvidia, Meta, Federal Reserve, Depot, Caterpillar

☆ Prices fell in June for the first time since the start of the pandemic
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

CNN —US consumer prices did something in June that they haven’t done since the early part of the pandemic: They fell. Economists were expecting a 0.1% monthly increase and an annual gain of 3.1%, according to FactSet consensus estimates. Excluding energy and food prices, a closely watched “core” index of underlying inflation also slowed more than expected. Dow futures rose 80 points. Nasdaq futures rose 0.3% as well.

Persons: — Organizations: CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, Federal Reserve, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury

☆ Oil prices tick up as crude, gasoline inventories ease
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices edged higher on Thursday as crude stocks fell after U.S. refineries ramped up processing and as gasoline inventories eased, signaling stronger demand. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $82.47 a barrel. U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels to 445.1 million barrels in the week ended July 5, far exceeding analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.3 million-barrel draw. Gasoline stocks fell by 2 million barrels to 229.7 million barrels, much bigger than the 600,000-barrel draw analysts expected during the U.S. Fourth of July holiday week. Lower interest rates decrease the cost of borrowing, which can boost economic activity and oil demand.

Persons: Brent, Beryl, Price, CME's, Jerome Powell Organizations: . West Texas, U.S, of, Petroleum, Federal Locations: Los Angeles , California, U.S, CME's FedWatch

☆ These 3 stocks are set to bounce once the Fed finally lowers interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. "This CPI is really in control today," Jim Cramer said. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Morgan Stanley, Stanley Black, Decker, Morgan, toolmaker Stanley, Wells, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Big Tech, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Street Locations: NII

☆ High inflation is largely not Biden's or Trump's fault, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The Federal Reserve, which acts independently from the Oval Office, was slow to act to contain hot inflation, for example. That Biden is seen as stoking high inflation is due somewhat to optics: he took office in early 2021, around the time inflation spiked notably, economists said. "In my view, neither Trump nor Biden is to blame for the high inflation," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. At a high level, hot inflation is largely an issue of mismatched supply and demand. For example, Trump imposed tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and several goods from China, which Biden largely kept intact.

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Justin Sullivan, Trump, Biden, David Wessel, Mark Zandi, Wu Shaoyang, Wessel, Zandi, Stephen Brown, Eric Baradat, —, Michael Strain, Strain, Jerome Powell, Olivier Douliery Organizations: CNN, Getty, Federal Reserve, Biden, Trump, Hutchins, Brookings Institution, Moody's, Qingdao Port, International Monetary Fund, North, Capital Economics, American, Afp, American Enterprise Institute, Federal, . Federal Locations: Atlanta, U.S, Ukraine, Qingdao, Shandong Province, China, North America, Washington, It's

☆ Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Delta Air Lines, SoundHound AI, WD-40, Tesla and more
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading: Delta Air Lines — The stock fell almost 5% after the airline issued a sales growth forecast for the third quarter that came in below expectations. The company also reported an almost 30% decrease in net income for the second quarter compared to a year ago. Shares of major airline stocks American Airlines and United Airlines also fell around 4.7% and 3.7%, respectively, following the results. WD-40 reported total net sales of $155 million in the fiscal third quarter, up 9% from the year-ago period. Semiconductor names — Investors took a few chips off the table on Thursday, selling high-flying semiconductor stocks.

Persons: QuantumScape, Conagra, Lantheus, Tesla, Horton, —, Alex Harring, Samantha Subin, Yun Li, Lisa Kailai Han, Pia Singh, Tanaya Macheel, Darla Mercado Organizations: Delta Air Lines, American Airlines and United Airlines, Costco, Peugeot, Opel, Vauxhall, Lantheus Holdings, Medicare, Services, PepsiCo, Revenue, Bloomberg News, Bloomberg, Industries, Builders, Semiconductor, —, VanEck Semiconductor, Nvidia Locations: U.S, Canada, Europe

☆ Live Updates: Inflation Likely Cooled Further in June
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

Overall inflation was probably 3.1 percent in June on an annual basis, down from 3.3 percent in May and the coolest reading since January, based on Bloomberg economist forecasts. Economists forecast just 0.2 percent core inflation on a monthly basis, which would match the reading for May. Fed officials have been watching for evidence that inflation is still coming down as they contemplate when to begin cutting interest rates. And Thursday’s inflation reading is poised to be markedly cooler than the 9.1 percent rate when inflation peaked at in 2022. Fed officials meet in late July, but few economists expect a move that early.

Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell, that’s, “, ” Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Fed

Average 30-year mortgage rates have been hovering in the upper 6% range so far this month, according to Zillow data. That would likely mean we'd need to wait longer for mortgage rates to drop. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. Lower mortgage rates will bring more buyers onto the market, putting upward pressure on prices.

Persons: Fannie Mae Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Zillow, Mortgage, Association, ARM Locations: Chevron

☆ Stock futures are flat Thursday after S&P 500 suffers worst day since April: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. stock futures were little changed Thursday night after the S&P 500 had its worst session since April, dragged lower by investors' rotation out of mega-cap tech stocks. S&P 500 futures were marginally higher. Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up by around 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures traded near the flatline. Investors sold their Big Tech winners, pushing Nvidia lower by 5.6% and leading to a 4.1% decline for Meta Platforms . The S&P 500 is up 0.3% through Thursday's close, while the Nasdaq is down nearly 0.4%.

Persons: Dow, Russell, Warren, We've, Wells Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Investors, Big Tech, Meta, Traders, Federal, 3Fourteen, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, University of Michigan Locations: Thursday's, Wells Fargo

watch nowHousing inflation has remained stubbornly high even as inflation in the broad U.S. economy has cooled significantly from peak levels during the pandemic era. At a high level, "shelter" inflation is a measure of U.S. rental prices, said Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. Why CPI shelter inflation has fallen slowlyThe pullback in shelter inflation has been slower than expected, economists said. How the CPI reflects homeownershipThe shelter inflation index is meant to measure the average cost of housing in the U.S. economy, J.P. Morgan's Seydl said. "When it comes to the CPI, [shelter] does not mean the cost for homes for purchase," said the NAR's Lautz.

Persons: Joe Seydl, Jessica Lautz, Olivia Cross, We've, Jerome Powell, Selma Hepp, Morgan's Seydl, Powell, Seydl Organizations: Morgan Private Bank, Housing, National Association of Realtors, of Labor Statistics, Capital Economics, Finance, Federal, CoreLogic, BLS, Olivia Cross North, Capital, CPI Locations: North America, U.S, Olivia Cross North America

☆ Key inflation report looms on Thursday as traders grow more confident in Fed rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-10 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The consumer price index, or CPI, report for June is due out at 8:30 a.m. A widely anticipated inflation report on Thursday may solidify expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in coming months. The price changes in the components that make up the CPI index will also be a focus on Thursday, especially if the number comes in different from expectations. Both shelter and medical services are also key parts of the personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rather than CPI. "We've seen medical services [be] pretty tame, and that's important because medical services makes up a much bigger portion of the PCE, which is the more important of the two inflation prints," Roth said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Dow Jones, Matt Brenner, Brenner, Tony Roth, We've, Roth Organizations: Federal Reserve, CPI, Wilmington Trust, PCE Locations: Wilmington

☆ Asia-Pacific markets slip as investors assess Japan inflation data; China CPI in focus
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-10 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Asia-Pacific markets started Wednesday lower, even as key Wall Street benchmarks rose following dovish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell overnight. Powell signaled caution over leaving interest rates at too high a level, saying that "reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment." Over in Asia, investors will assess inflation data from China and Japan, with China releasing its consumer and producer prices data for June. Japan's corporate goods price index rose to 2.9% in June from a year earlier, in line with expectations and climbing at a faster pace compared to a revised 2.6% in May. The CGPI measures the price changes of goods traded within the corporate sector.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: U.S . Federal, PPI Locations: Asia, Pacific, U.S, China, Japan

☆ Why the Fed is stressed about presidential elections
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-10 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

New York CNN —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sent investors mixed messages on Tuesday during his semiannual testimony to Congress. Powell is stressed about the election: Powell was asked by multiple senators about White House politics, which he dodged. While the Fed head noted that policy decisions are data dependent, “elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” he said. The September Fed meeting will be “live”: Powell noted multiple times that every Fed policy decision is made “live” using the latest available economic data – in other words, decisions aren’t made in advance. About 75% of investors think the Fed will cut rates, and about 25% think they’ll remain the same.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, “, Donald Trump, reappoint Powell, ”, Joseph Brusuelas, Trump, Gregory Daco, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley, Larkin, don’t, aren’t, David Rubenstein, he’ll, Airbnb, Isabelle Chapman, Majlie, Puy Kamp, Audrey Ash, Chris Isidore . Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN — Federal, White, “, Reserve, RSM, Federal Reserve, US Consumer, Treasury, Fed, Economics, Washington DC, Jackson, CNN, Boeing, Alaska Airlines Locations: New York, Powell, Washington, Alaska

☆ Treasury yields retreat as Fed Chair warns on keeping rates elevated for too long
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-10 | by ( April Roach | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The 10-year Treasury yield was one basis point lower at 4.2880%. The 2-year Treasury note yield was little changed at 4.6284%. U.S. Treasury bond yields were slightly down on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that keeping interest rates elevated for too long could stunt economic growth. Powell said Tuesday that the economy and labor market remain strong, despite some recent cooling. The CPI pint is seen as a key test for the market and the outlook for rate cuts.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Capitol, Committee, House Financial

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