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☆ Only the big will crack the $1 trln LBO code
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Jonathan Guilford | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

Lenders will only tiptoe back, meaning deals need the big checks and extra elbow grease in credit markets that favor the largest private equity firms. Private equity firms depend on borrowed money to reduce how much of their own they use in any single deal and to magnify returns as a percentage of their initial investment. Imagine a private equity firm acquires a company for $1 billion, then flips it five years later for $1.5 billion. Though the private equity industry is awash in so-called dry powder, fundraising is increasingly tilting to the largest fund managers. Buyout firms are apt to keep their plans more conservative to garner higher ratings – meaning, again, less leverage and more upfront cash.

☆ US government’s proposal to boost EV sales is challenging but not impossible
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Peter Valdes-Dapena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

By 2032, electric vehicles would need to make up about two-thirds of all the new cars sold in America. And even as EV market share rises to two-thirds, it’s not like EVs will flood America’s roads overnight, he said. Reaching two-thirds EV market share mark by 2032 isn’t a sure thing, said Cantor, but it should be manageable. The increasing number of automakers entering the EV market will also help, said Ivan Drury, an industry analyst with Edmunds.com. General Motors also has a number of EV models coming in the next year or two.

Paying more for deposits is an effective way for banks to keep customers loyal, analysts said. Smaller banks, which were most strained by the recent crisis, have been able to stem the exodus of deposits for now, according to weekly from the Federal Reserve. That said, the Fed’s data showed deposits at smaller banks were still down some $216 billion during the week ending March 22 from a December high. Meanwhile, large U.S. banks lost out on $96.2 billion in deposits in the week ending March 22, the Fed data showed. Deposits at large banks dropped some $519 billion from as high as $11.2 trillion in February last year.

☆ ‘It’s not zero.’ Wall Street is pricing in a small but growing risk of a disastrous US default
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

As politicians sleepwalk toward a potential debt ceiling crisis, financial markets have begun pricing in a small — but growing — chance of a disastrous default. “The probability of default has gone up noticeably,” Andy Sparks, head of portfolio management research at MSCI, told CNN in an interview. Yellen has used unusually strong language for a former central banker to warn Congress against messing with the debt ceiling. Asked about MSCI’s estimate of a 2% implied probability of a default, Valliere said that number is low. But this is not a typical debt ceiling debate.”Fallback optionsThere are some early indicators of concern popping up in the bond market.

☆ Banking crisis won’t hurt America’s credit rating unless stress intensifies, Moody’s says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

New York CNN —The banking crisis that caused US officials to launch emergency interventions is unlikely to have significant direct costs for the federal government, according to Moody’s Investors Service. The credit ratings firm said late Wednesday that at this stage, the biggest bank failures since 2008 are not expected to meaningfully hurt America’s credit profile. “In particular, we do not expect significant direct fiscal costs” from the current banking sector stress, Moody’s wrote in a report. However, Moody’s warned that an intensification of the banking crisis could be problematic. “A scenario of severe and prolonged stress, which is not our current baseline, could weaken economic and fiscal strength,” Moody’s said.

☆ Foot Locker is closing 400 stores. They may become an eyesore
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Nathaniel Meyersohn | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Foot Locker will close 400 stores by 2026 in malls. Anchor vacancies in malls hurt neighbors like Foot Locker and reduce traffic to their stores as well. Eventually, stores like Foot Locker go dark and it becomes harder for the mall to survive. Finding tenants for the 400 Foot Locker spaces will be challenging as big retailers look to stay away from weaker malls. Bed Bath & Beyond will be “much easier to fill than in-mall spaces.”So what happens to all the indoor malls with empty Foot Locker stores and other vacant spaces?

☆ Fed official: People ‘hate’ inflation. That trumps bank stress and job loss
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —The Federal Reserve faced a particularly vexing decision this week: Should it raise interest rates during a bank crisis? But the economic reports heading into this week’s Fed meeting suggest the economy remains too hot. The Fed ultimately reached a unanimous decision to raise interest rates for the ninth meeting in a row. “The one thing that I hear loud and clear from everybody is that they hate inflation. They find inflation to be unfair,” Barkin said, referring to talking to residents in his Fed district.

☆ Credit Suisse rescue creates bank twice the size of Switzerland's economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

London CNN —The last-minute rescue of Credit Suisse may have prevented the current banking crisis from exploding, but it’s a raw deal for Switzerland. An aerial view of the headquarters of Credit Suisse, center, and UBS, left, at Paradeplatz in Zurich, Switzerland on Sunday, 19 March, 2023. Credit Suisse is “part of Switzerland’s identity,” said Hans Gersbach, a professor of macroeconomics at ETH university in Zurich. “The Credit Suisse Swiss bank is a fine asset that we are very determined to keep,” Kelleher said Sunday. Integration is difficultAt $3.25 billion, UBS got Credit Suisse for 60% less than the bank was worth when markets closed two days prior.

☆ Elizabeth Warren demands Fed crackdown on large regional banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —Senator Elizabeth Warren is cranking up the pressure on the Federal Reserve following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Both Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank fit into that asset threshold when they failed earlier this month. The bipartisan 2018 rollback of Dodd-Frank freed large regional banks in that range of assets from the toughest oversight. Notably, the letter was signed by Senator Angus King, the Maine independent who voted in favor of the 2018 rollback. Days after the bank failures, the Federal Reserve launched a review of the regulation and oversight of Silicon Valley Bank.

☆ Global banking crisis: One big problem down. Too many others left to go
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( David Goldman | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —Credit Suisse, hobbled for decades by mismanagement, scandal and bad bets, finally succumbed to the emerging global banking crisis. In the United States, the banking crisis began nearly two weeks ago with the sudden collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank over a three-day span. That sent shockwaves through the global banking system. Good news and bad newsThe good news: Those loans do not indicate anything inherently wrong with the global banking system. But the banking system and regulators would have to calm fears before that happens system-wide.

☆ First Republic shares tumble to a new low
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Shares were halted several times for volatility, and they sank further after a report from the Wall Street Journal said rival banks led by JPMorgan (JPM) are trying to work on yet another rescue plan for First Republic. First Republic declined to comment on the report. Thursday’s government-arranged deal amounted to a big cash deposit that would allow First Republic to meet customers’ demands for withdrawals. What’s more, Thursday’s $30 billion infusion didn’t increase First Republic Bank’s capital — the safety cushion funds that banks use to absorb losses — “so that’s a separate weakness that we need to keep our eyes on,” said McCoy, who helped establish the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. McCoy added that there’s “every reason to think that the capital has shrunk,” given First Republic’s heavy paper losses on its bond portfolio.

New York CNN —Global banks just suffered their worst week since 2008. Credit Suisse and First Republic: Two more banks wobbled but remained upright through the week. Meanwhile, First Republic bank received a $30 billion lifeline on Thursday from some of the largest banks in the United States. US-traded shares of Credit Suisse were down nearly 7% and First Republic shares plunged by about 33% on Friday. That doesn’t mean that banks taking money from the FHLB and participating in the Federal Reserve’s emergency Bank Term Lending Program, which lent out $12 billion to banks this week, are in big trouble.

LONDON, March 16 (Reuters) - Banks should largely be able to cope with "unrealised losses" on bonds and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, top credit ratings agencies S&P Global and Moody's said on Thursday, although they remained guarded on Credit Suisse's woes. "At this stage, we view the risks from unrealized losses as manageable," S&P said in a report published just days after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, a lender it had rated as 'investment grade' until the day it fell. Rival agency Moody's also offered its balm to the Credit Suisse jitters, saying that while it would "act appropriately" with the Swiss bank's rating, Europe's lenders remain in fundamentally good health. "That kind of confidence shock that we've just seen from the U.S. is bound to have some impact," Hill said. Reporting By Marc Jones and Lawrence White Editing by Nick ZieminskiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Silicon Valley Bank executives went to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in late February looking for advice: They needed to raise money but weren’t exactly sure how to do it. Soaring interest rates had taken a heavy toll on the bank. Deposits and the value of the bank’s bond portfolio had fallen sharply. Moody’s Investors Service was preparing for a downgrade. The bank had to reset its finances to avoid a funding squeeze that would badly dent profits.

☆ Europe didn't roll back post-2008 banking rules. That was smart
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

London CNN —Shares in European banks slumped Wednesday as speculation about the health of Credit Suisse (CSGKF) reignited the market turmoil sparked by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Europe’s benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index, which tracks 42 big EU and UK banks, has fallen 13% since last Wednesday’s close. In 2018, former President Donald Trump watered down key parts of the Dodd-Frank Act, which set stricter rules for the banking sector. But European banks are required to hold capital to cover the risk of a large and sudden change in borrowing costs. “This means that European banks have less exposure to market risk on bonds, despite a similar rise in yields,” Moody’s said in its note.

☆ Can the Fed help fend off a banking crisis while also cooling the economy?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

To stave off the latter, the Fed offered a solution that seemingly contradicted its hawkish flight path: looser purse-strings. That means the Fed can still fight the battle against inflation even while it shores up the banking sector. Although the Fed’s new program is an extraordinary action to ensure bank stability, the Fed is engaged in the lending business every day, Brusuelas noted. “The Fed buys and sells government securities each day to maintain the range of its policy rate — the federal funds rate — between 4.5% and 4.75%,” he said. Once that returns, the central bank can shift its focus back to restoring price stability, he said.

☆ First Republic Bank stock tumbles on credit downgrade and deposit worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —First Republic Bank’s credit rating was downgraded on Wednesday by both Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings on concerns that depositors could pull their cash despite the federal intervention. Fitch also placed another regional bank, PacWest Bancorp, on watch for a potential credit ratings downgrade of its own. The moves reflect continued worries about the banking system in the aftermath of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Both credit ratings firms pointed to the large amount of deposits at First Republic that are uninsured because they are above the $250,000 FDIC limit. Moody’s Investors Service on Tuesday cut its outlook for the entire US banking sector and placed six US banks on review for potential credit rating downgrades, including First Republic.

☆ Goldman’s new strategy gets baptism of fire
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Jeffrey Goldfarb | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, March 15 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank is providing a slightly awkward showcase for Goldman Sachs’ (GS.N) manifold talents. It’s true to the new unified “One Goldman Sachs” strategy expounded by Chief Executive David Solomon, dampened by the client not living to tell the tale. The investment bank Solomon now leads scrambled throughout the financial crisis to help panicked clients shore up their finances. SVB’s financial models had to be revised on the fly and approved by its board as the situation deteriorated. There also was no soothing imprimatur from Buffett, or a rich Silicon Valley grandee such as Larry Ellison, Steve Ballmer or Larry Page.

☆ Moody’s puts six US banks on watch for potential downgrade
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: 1 min

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☆ Banking turmoil could help euro doves cry victory
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

That’s the annual growth in euro zone inflation recorded in February, and it sits well above the ECB’s 2% target. The demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank (SBNY.O) was partly due to rising interest rates and sparked fears of a global banking rout. Investors are evenly split between those expecting a 25 basis point hike and those backing a 50 basis point raise on Thursday, according to probabilities derived from market prices by Refinitiv. As for GDP, the central bank in December forecasted a rebound in growth from 0.5% this year to 1.9% in 2024. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsFollow @guerreraf72 on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSThe European Central Bank announces its interest rate decision and new economic forecasts on March 16.

☆ Takeaways from America’s second-largest bank failure
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( Ramishah Maruf | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —Silicon Valley Bank’s 48-hour collapse led to the second-largest failure of a financial institution in US history. Its stunning, and seemingly rapid, fall is the largest shutdown of a US bank since Washington Mutual in 2008. “That’s because its depositors were withdrawing their money so fast that the bank was insolvent, and an intraday closure was unavoidable due to a classic bank run.”High interest rates led to its demiseTo combat rampant inflation, the central bank has been aggressively raising interest rates since 2022. When interest rates were near historical lows, the banks bought up on long-dated, seemingly low-risk Treasuries. Faced with these higher interest rates, loss of IPOs and a funding drought, SVB’s clients began pulling money out of the bank.

☆ Takeaways from the February jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Minneapolis CNN —February’s jobs report had a little something for everyone. In February, the construction industry added 24,000 jobs, marking 12 consecutive months of employment growth. Friday’s report showed that “a modicum of slack crept back into the jobs market,” wrote Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Michael Pugliese. However, Friday’s jobs report likely won’t spur a more dovish turn from the Fed, said Sean Snaith, an economist and director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Forecasting. “We didn’t go from a four-alarm fire to a five-alarm fire with this data report, but the inflation flames aren’t out either,” he wrote in a note Friday.

New York CNN —This week, the go-to bank for US tech startups came rapidly unglued, leaving its high-powered customers and investors in limbo. Silicon Valley Bank, facing a sudden bank run and capital crisis, collapsed Friday morning and was taken over by federal regulators. Founded in 1983, SVB specialized in banking for tech startups. At the same time, venture capital began drying up, forcing startups to draw down funds held by SVB. By Friday morning, trading in SVB shares was halted and it had abandoned efforts to quickly raise capital or find a buyer.

☆ Silicon Valley Bank scrambles to reassure clients after 60% stock wipe-out
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

SVB Financial Group scrambled on Thursday to reassure its venture capital clients their money was safe after a capital raise led to its stock collapsing 60% and contributed to wiping out over $80 billion in value from bank shares. SVB, which does business as Silicon Valley Bank, launched a $1.75 billion share sale on Wednesday to shore up its balance sheet. Investors in SVB’s stock fretted over whether the capital raise would be sufficient given the deteriorating fortunes of many technology startups that the bank serves. The company’s stock collapsed to its lowest level since 2016, and after the market closed shares slid another 26% in extended trade. However, the Information publication reported the bank told four clients that transfers could be delayed.

☆ Debt default would be ‘catastrophic’ event that could kill millions of American jobs, Moody’s warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —A breach of the US debt ceiling risks sparking a 2008-style economic catastrophe that wipes out millions of jobs and sets America back for generations, Moody’s Analytics warned on Tuesday. “A default would be a catastrophic blow to the already fragile economy,” Zandi said in prepared remarks to be delivered during a Senate subcommittee hearing on Tuesday. Citing concerns about America’s mountain of debt, Republicans have called for steep cuts to federal spending in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Given the enormous stakes, Moody’s Analytics urged lawmakers to avoid playing chicken with US debt. “Lawmakers should put an end to the wrangling over the debt limit and increase it with no strings attached so future generations can enjoy the same benefits,” Zandi said in his prepared remarks.

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