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☆ Growth in U.S. labor costs smallest in a year in fourth quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - U.S. labor costs increased at their slowest pace in a year in the fourth quarter as wage growth slowed, offering a boost to the Federal Reserve in its fight against inflation. The Employment Cost Index, the broadest measure of labor costs, rose 1.0% last quarter, the Labor Department said on Tuesday. That was the smallest advance since the fourth quarter of 2021 and followed a 1.2% gain in the July-September period. Labor costs increased 5.1% on a year-on-year basis after advancing 5.0% in the third quarter. Wages and salaries increased 1.0% in the last quarter, also the smallest gain since the fourth quarter of 2021, after rising 1.3% in the third quarter.

☆ Fasten your seatbelts
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Jan 31 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in markets from Stephen Culp, New York stock market reporter. Wall Street's downbeat start to an action-packed week has set a bumpy course for Asian markets on Tuesday. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are poised to follow the Fed by hiking crucial interest rates by a more aggressive 50 basis points. Meta Platforms Inc (META.O) waits in the wings on Wednesday, with Apple Inc (AAPL.O), Amazon.com (AMZN.O) and Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O) on deck for Thursday. Those policies have since been relaxed, sparking hopes of demand revival in China, which could take some of the sting of restrictive central bank policy.

Money markets now see rates peaking at 4.9% in June, still below the 5% level expected by Fed policymakers. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings during the fourth-quarter to decline 2.9%, compared with the 1.6% drop expected at the beginning of the year, according to Refinitiv data as of Friday. Wall Street is expected to end the month higher with the tech-inclined Nasdaq (.IXIC) and the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) recovering December losses. ET, Dow e-minis were down 157 points, or 0.46%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 32.5 points, or 0.8%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 138 points, or 1.13%. Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Money markets now see rates peaking at 4.9% in June, still below the 5% level expected by Fed policymakers. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings during the fourth-quarter to decline 3%, compared with the 1.6% drop expected at the beginning of the year, according to Refinitiv data. Wall Street is expected to end the month higher with the Nasdaq (.IXIC) and the S&P 500 Growth index (.IGX) recouping more than half their monthly losses from December. Five of the major 11 S&P 500 sector indexes fell with communication services (.SPLRCL) and technology (.SPLRCT) leading the fall. The S&P index recorded three new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 39 new highs and eight new lows.

☆ Morning Bid: Fasten your seatbelts
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

☆ U.S. unemployment system still plagued by delays 3 years after pandemic-era downturn
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-28 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Patrick T. Fallon | Afp | Getty ImagesThese days the U.S. unemployment system is somewhat of an anomaly. At the pandemic-era nadir, just 52% got a "timely" first payment of unemployment insurance, for example. Unemployment claims spiked as businesses closed amid stay-at-home orders to contain the virus' spread. States get funding based on their administrative workload, like the volume of claims states are paying. That's especially true for one CARES Act program, Pandemic Unemployment Assistance.

The Labor Department's report showed a surprise fall in U.S. weekly jobless claims, highlighting labor market resilience in a higher interest rate environment. "There's virtually no signs of any weakness in the labor market and that's one of the things the Fed's been leaning against to keep rates higher for longer." The S&P 500 (.SPX) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) are now headed for their third straight day of declines. Shares of both the companies fell around 2%, and were among the top drags to the benchmark S&P 500 and Nasdaq (.IXIC) indexes. Industrial (.SPLRCI) and consumer discretionary stocks (.SPLRCD) were among the leading decliners on the S&P 500, down 1.5% and 1.7%, respectively.

☆ As consumer spending slows, Club holding TJX is the off-price retailer to own
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

That's likely to make off-price retailers like Club holding TJX Companies (TJX) even more attractive to many Americans looking for cost-saving deals in the new year. Total retail sales in the U.S. dropped 1.1% in December month-on-month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday, in the second consecutive monthly decline. Retail sales had fallen by 1% in November. Morgan Stanley analysts expect off-price retailers to benefit from consumers shifting spending habits away from high-end shopping toward discounts. Off-price retailers like TJX have a great opportunity to snag a wide range of merchandise from big-box retailers with elevated inventory for very cheap prices.

☆ Amazon cited by Labor Department for exposing warehouse workers to safety hazards
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Annie Palmer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The Labor Department's Occupational Safety and Health Administration has issued citations against Amazon at three of its warehouses for exposing workers to safety hazards, the department announced Wednesday. Amazon also faces a separate investigation by the U.S. Attorney's Office's civil division that centers around worker safety hazards at the e-retailer's facilities nationwide. Amazon warehouse workers have previously complained that the company's pace of work prevents them from taking adequate bathroom and rest breaks, and leads to unfair disciplinary actions. In April, workers at an Amazon warehouse on New York's Staten Island voted to form the company's first U.S. union. Workers at another Staten Island facility rejected a union, while a second election at an Amazon warehouse in Alabama is being contested.

☆ Wall St gains; data suggests inflation may be on downward trend
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Labor Department's report showed U.S. consumer prices grew 6.5% on an annual basis in December, in line with expectations. Microsoft (MSFT.O) shares were providing the biggest boost to the S&P 500, energy shares also were higher along with oil prices. Friday brings results from a number of big U.S. banks, kicking off the start of the fourth-quarter earnings season for S&P 500 companies. Overall S&P 500 earnings are expected to have declined year-over-year in the fourth quarter, according to IBES data from Refinitiv, which would be the first quarterly U.S. earnings decline since 2020. The S&P 500 posted 14 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 80 new highs and 16 new lows.

The Fed raised the key rate by 50 basis points in December, after four back-to-back 75-bps hikes, but also indicated a prolonged period of rate hikes to above 5% in 2023. Traders' bets of a 25-basis point rate hike by the Fed in February shot up to 89% after the inflation data, from 77% previously. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners for a 2.31-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 1.63-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded eight new 52-week highs and one new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 39 new highs and 10 new lows. Reporting by Shubham Batra, Amruta Khandekar and Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The Labor Department's report showed U.S. consumer prices grew 6.5% on an annual basis in December, in line with expectations, from a 7.1% rise last month. Markets initially spiked lower after the data, but quickly reversed to edge higher as investors assessed the numbers. Consumer prices unexpectedly fell for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years in December, suggesting that inflation was now on a sustained downward trend. Some Fed policymakers earlier this week signaled the possibility of a 25-basis point hike during the February meeting, if the much-awaited consumer prices data further adds to evidence of a cooling economy. ET, Dow e-minis were up 138 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 17.25 points, or 0.43%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 45 points, or 0.39%.

☆ SNAPSHOT S&P 500 futures edge higher after December CPI data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Jan 12 (Reuters) - S&P 500 futures rose in choppy trading on Thursday after a key inflation reading came in line with expectations, adding to hopes that the Federal Reserve will take a less aggressive approach at its next policy meeting. The highly awaited Labor Department's report showed consumer prices rose 6.5% year-on-year in December, in line with a forecast by economists polled by Reuters. ET, Dow e-minis were up 66 points, or 0.19%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 5.25 points, or 0.13%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 12 points, or 0.1%. Moments before the data, Dow e-minis were up 126 points, or 0.37%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 16.25 points, or 0.41%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 39.75 points, or 0.35%. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Biden says inflation slowdown shows it's 'clearer than ever' his economic policies are working
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Emma Kinery | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

President Joe Biden cheered news that a key indicator of inflation fell for the first time in more than two years, saying "it's clearer than ever" that his economic policies are working. Inflation is now at it's lowest level since October 2021." The report released by the Labor Department on Thursday found overall CPI rose 6.5% from a year ago, the lowest level since October 2021. The data is good news for Biden who for months has asked the nation to have faith in his economic plans amid persistent inflation. Biden lauded other positive economic indicators like the Labor Department's jobs report last week which found unemployment at its lowest level in 50 years.

SummarySummary Companies Powell steers clear of monetary policy outlookMicrosoft up on report of investment talksBoeing down on report of rating downgradeIndexes up: Dow 0.33%, S&P 0.42%, Nasdaq 0.70%Jan 10 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes edged higher on Tuesday, boosted by gains in Microsoft and Amazon, as investors assessed commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that steered clear of the monetary policy outlook. Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) rose 1.2% after a report stated the software company was in talks to invest $10 bln in ChatGPT creator OpenAI. The U.S. central bank's independence from political influence is central to its ability to battle inflation, Powell said on Tuesday. The Fed's aggressive monetary policy tightening to curb decades-high inflation hammered U.S. equities in 2022, with the three main indexes logging their steepest annual declines since 2008. The S&P index recorded 1 new 52-week high and no new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 27 new highs and 14 new lows.

Powell is likely to say the Fed will keep raising rates until it sees inflation is under control, Matousek added. Money market bets pointed to a 77% chance of a 25-bps hike to 4.50%-4.75% in the Fed's upcoming policy meeting, with the terminal rate seen slightly below 5% by June. ET, Dow e-minis were down 162 points, or 0.48%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 19.5 points, or 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 76.75 points, or 0.69%. Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY.O) gained 11% after the home goods retailer posted lower quarterly expenses driven by aggressive cost reduction initiatives. Reporting by Ankika Biswas and Amruta Khandekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini GanguliOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Futures edge lower ahead of Powell's speech
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The highly awaited U.S. Labor Department's inflation report on Thursday is expected to show some moderation in year-on-year consumer prices in December. Money market bets pointed to a 77% chance of a 25-bps hike to 4.50%-4.75% in the Fed's upcoming policy meeting, with the terminal rate seen slightly below 5% by June. This is in contrast to the 5%-5.25% peak policy rate expected by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Atlanta President Raphael Bostic. Along with economic data and comments from Fed officials, investors are also awaiting corporate earnings reports, with big U.S. banks expected to report lower fourth-quarter profits this week. Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY.O) was up 4.9% in premarket trading, ahead of its quarterly earnings report due later in the day.

Megacap growth stocks Apple Inc (AAPL.O), Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O) and Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) gained over 2% each as U.S. Treasury yields declined. The highly awaited U.S. Labor Department's inflation report on Thursday is expected to show some moderation in year-on-year consumer prices in December. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners for a 4.45-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 2.54-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 12 new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 107 new highs and 18 new lows. Reporting by Shubham Batra, Amruta Khandekar and Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

"The number of jobs created is working its way down slowly and wages are starting to calm down. Money market bets show 75% odds of a 25-basis point hike in the Fed's February policy meeting, with the terminal rate expected just below 5% by June. ET, Dow e-minis were up 103 points, or 0.30%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 16 points, or 0.41%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 56.75 points, or 0.51%. Macy's Inc (M.N) and Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU.O) dropped 4.7% and 10%, respectively, following dour holiday-quarter forecasts from both the retailers. Reporting by Shubham Batra, Amruta Khandekar and Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Futures rise on China reopening optimism, easing rate hike worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A key inflation report due on Thursday will provide further cues on the state of price pressures and the outlook for interest rates. The U.S. Labor Department's consumer prices index (CPI) report is expected to show prices increased by 6.5% year-on-year in December, moderating from a 7.1% rise in November. "Sentiment still feels as fragile as a teacup and U.S. inflation numbers on Thursday could provide a key test for investor confidence." ET, Dow e-minis were up 89 points, or 0.26%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 12.5 points, or 0.32%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 30.25 points, or 0.27%. Reporting by Shubham Batra and Amruta Khandekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Other rate-sensitive growth stocks like Apple Inc (AAPL.O) and Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O) gained about 1% each as U.S. Treasury yields declined. The gains pushed technology (.SPLRCT) to the top of the major S&P 500 sector indexes list. The S&P 500 growth index (.IGX) was up 3.6%, outperforming a 0.7% rise in its value peers (.IVX). Advancing issues outnumbered decliners for a 3.68-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 2.15-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 10 new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 95 new highs and 14 new lows.

☆ The December jobs report sent mixed signals. Here's what it means for markets.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The December jobs report is another data point that signals the Fed has more work to do to cool the economy. "A labor market this strong means an imminent recession is highly improbable," Indeed Hiring Lab economist Nick Bunker wrote in a note. While stocks usually sell off after these strong reports, fearing the worst from the Fed, Friday saw a strong rally. History suggests there are very strong odds the stock market gains 20% this year after last year's bludgeoning. Tesla stock has tumbled to multiyear lows.

☆ Jim Cramer's Investing Club meeting Monday: Consumer prices, overvalued tech stocks, oil
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Look for consumer price report Trim overvalued tech stocks Watch oil as China reopens 1. Shares of Club oil stocks Halliburton (HAL), Coterra Energy (CTRA) and Devon Energy (DVN) followed suit Monday. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .

Nearly 165 million people were either in jobs or looking for them last month, a record high that showed a long-hoped-for improvement in labor supply. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe jobs report is "the embodiment of the soft landing narrative - this idea that can you have a strong labor market with slowing wage growth," said Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors. Ideally, she said, that should allow the Fed to slow and soon pause its interest rate hikes. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsTraders took the report as evidence the Fed's work is near to being done. Still, she said, "inflation remains far too high, despite some encouraging signs lately, and is therefore of great concern."

☆ Strong U.S. jobs, wages growth expected in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

However, job growth would far exceed the pace needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population, comfortably in the 150,000-300,000 range that economists associate with tight labor markets. Household employment decreased in October and November, leading some economists to speculate that overall job growth was overstated. Yet the household survey tends to be volatile and most economists expect household employment would be revised toward nonfarm payrolls. "We would not be surprised to see an even larger rebound in household employment in December or over the coming months." But the trend in employment growth could slow significantly by mid-year.

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