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“Participants generally noted a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook,” the minutes noted. “FOMC minutes reinforced the ’wait and see’ policy stance was unanimous. Focus was on tightening in financial conditions and slowing in inflation and labor market. The central bank will meet on Dec. 12 for a two-day meeting of its monetary policy committee, but the markets are pricing in no increase in interest rates. “I’m expecting continued relief concerning inventory and mortgage rates as the Fed begins cutting rates in the first half of next year,” Torres says.
Persons: , ” Kathy Jones, Jose Torres, “ I’m, ” Torres, Torres Organizations: Schwab Center, Financial Research, Fed, National Association of Realtors, Interactive
Wall Street is keenly focused on what officials will do next. Fed policymakers had predicted one more 2023 rate move as of their September economic projections, but investors think that there is little chance they will raise rates at their final meeting of the year on Dec. 12-13. Those, together with remarks from Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell, could provide important clues about the future. As of now, market pricing suggests that Wall Street expects policymakers to begin lowering interest rates at some point in the first half of 2024. Several central bankers have been clear in recent weeks that they aren’t sure they are done raising interest rates.
Persons: Jerome H, Powell, ” Susan Collins Organizations: , Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, CNBC
Russia made a rare admission regarding the effectiveness of Western sanctions. A Kremlin spokesperson said the nation was on the brink of collapse after unprecedented sanctions. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . That economic pressure was largely brought on by sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Peskov added. Russia's economic projections are also based on cherry-picked data, according to two Yale researchers, who have proposed that the nation's economy could be teetering on the edge of collapse as the war consumes all available resources.
Persons: , Dmitry Peskov, Peskov, Putin Organizations: Kremlin, Service, Russia, SWIFT, International Monetary Fund, Yale Locations: Russia, Moscow, Russia's, Ukraine
The S&P 500 could be on track to notch a new record next year, according to market vet Phil Orlando. AdvertisementThe bull market in stocks has more room to run, and it could take the S&P 500 to a new high by the end of next year, one market veteran says. Orlando sees the S&P 500 surging to 5,000 by the end of 2024, representing an upside of around 10% from the benchmark index's current levels. Higher bond yields influence other interest rates in the economy, which have also helped tighten financial conditions. The S&P 500 has climbed 7% over the past month, trading around 4,535 on Monday.
Persons: Phil Orlando, , Orlando, They've Organizations: Federated Hermes, Service, Bloomberg, Fed, Treasury
But the market wrongly priced in a looser stance at least six times in the last few years, Deutsche Bank wrote. The S&P 500 advanced 3.6% that month as bond yields fell. AdvertisementThe S&P 500 jumped 6.6% in the week ending May 27, its strongest weekly performance of 2022. The S&P 500 surged 5.7% over October 3-4, marking the biggest two-day rally since April 2020. Yields on 2-year Treasurys tumbled, and the S&P 500 jumped 7% from a low in the immediate aftermath of SVB's collapse to the end of the March.
Persons: , Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Service, Fed, Bank Locations: Ukraine
After making three trades this week, we're heading into a shortened trading week. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia YTD Shares of Nvidia closed Nov. 14 at a record high of $496.56 each. Here's the full rundown of all the important domestic data in the week ahead, which also features a slew of earnings from brand-name retailers. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.
Persons: FactSet, It's, Jim Cramer, NIU, Jack, JACK, Jim Cramer's, Jim, New York Stock Exchange Michael Nagle Organizations: Fed, TJX, Palo Alto Networks, PMI, ISM, Institute for Supply Management, Nvidia, Apple, Technologies, Video Communications, Agilent Technologies, Baidu, Abercrombie, Fitch, Burlington Stores, Eagle Outfitters, Dick's Sporting, Autodesk, HP, Nordstrom, Urban Outfitters, Deere & Company, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: U.S, China
Speaking on CNBC, Boston Fed President Susan Collins also said the U.S. central bank must be "patient and resolute, and I wouldn't take additional firming off the table." Inflation by the Fed's preferred measure was 3.4% in September, down from its 7.1% peak last summer, but above the central bank's target. And he expressed increased confidence that the Fed can meet its inflation goal without the kind of rise in unemployment seen in the U.S. central bank's prior battles with inflation. Speaking on Thursday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, one of the central bank's more hawkish policymakers, said she had not yet assessed whether she would continue to pencil in a further rate hike. Fresh economic and interest rate projections are due to be the released at the Dec. 12-13 policy meeting.
Persons: Mary Daly, Daly, Susan Collins, Collins, Austan Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, Ann Saphir, Michael S, Pete Schroeder, Dan Burns, Balazs Koranyi, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, San Francisco Fed, CNBC, Boston, Deutsche Bank, Chicago Fed, Fed, Cleveland Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, U.S
Multipolar world opens up surprising safe havens
  + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
This new-look cap table leaves the U.S. much more vulnerable to the vagaries of foreign investors than before. In a crisis, foreign investors would rush to buy even more U.S. debt. Reuters GraphicsA less orthodox option would be to invest in emerging markets instead. The last time net equity investment in the U.S. NIIP dipped close to negative territory was as the dot-com bubble was deflating in 2001. In the next six years the U.S. saw net equity outflows equivalent to nearly 30% of GDP.
Persons: Hubert Védrine, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, , Donald Trump’s, exceptionalism, NIIP, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, French, U.S, United, United States, Treasury, Equity, U.S . Treasury, Japan, Democratic, Cooperation Council, Peterson Institute for International, Fed, ECB ”, Thomson Locations: United States, tatters, United, U.S, China, Hong Kong, Switzerland, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, Vietnam, India, Chile, Democratic Republic of, Congo, Washington
Walmart wants to lower your grocery bill
  + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Dominick Reuter | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The company said it hopes falling food prices will free up shoppers' wallets to buy other merchandise. AdvertisementJust as inflation refers to rising prices, "deflation" refers to prices falling — and even though it may help consumers, it presents a surprisingly tricky challenge for businesses and policymakers. In contrast to periods of rising inflation in which corporate profit margins typically grow, deflation tends to squeeze companies in a few ways. AdvertisementThe upside of falling food prices for Walmart — more than say Kroger or Albertsons — is that Walmart sells a whole lot more than groceries. "If the food prices come down," McMillon said, "that'll free up dollars to be spent in general merchandise."
Persons: , Doug McMillon, it's, McMillon, John Furner Organizations: Walmart, Service, Rabo Research, Albertsons
To fix the problem, Argentina should abandon the peso and adopt the dollar, whose value is set by the US Federal Reserve and cannot be printed at will. Massa has criticized the plan for dollarization as a surrender of national sovereignty and attempted to show that the government’s current actions are already paying dividends. Other mainstream politicians, including former the President Mauricio Macri and another former election candidate, Patricia Bullrich, have endorsed Milei despite sharing some reservations on dollarization. ET) and the vote count is expected to be quick – barring any unforeseen problems or objections, that is. Milei appeared to question the results of the first round of voting in October, although his party did not formally appeal.
Persons: Argentina’s, Sergio Massa, Javier Milei, Milei, Massa, dollarization, Pope Francis, , Satan ”, Francis, Tucker Carlson, Milton Friedman, Argentinians, Mauricio Macri, Patricia Bullrich, Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, Spain’s José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, Jair Bolsonaro, Mario Vargas Llosa, Mariano Rajoy, Donald Trump Organizations: CNN, Massa, Union por la Patria, Union, La Libertad, US Federal Reserve, Cato Institute Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, South America, Latin America, Ecuador, El Salvador, US, Argentina’s, Peruvian, Spanish
He predicted central bankers could begin cutting interest rates as soon as March. The Wharton professor thinks the US could risk a recession if the Fed doesn't dial back interest rates soon. AdvertisementThe battle against high inflation is just about over, and that could give the Federal Reserve the green light to soon start cutting interest rates soon, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel. AdvertisementThe Fed has raised short-term interest rates 525 basis points over the past year, which Siegel previously warned could trigger a recession. Central bankers have a bigger risk now of dialing back interest rates too late, he suggested, as the economy is already showing signs of slowing down.
Persons: Jeremy Siegel, Wharton, , Siegel, Powell, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Treasury, Bank of America
The key to those predictions is the Federal Reserve and the monetary policy Jerome Powell will enact next year as he fights to get inflation down to a target of 2%. Clearly, anticipating the Fed's next move is far from simple, even for Wall Street pros. While government data is clearly an important source of data for central bankers, a less-understood resource is academia. Understanding which of these resources central bankers rely on can provide insight into upcoming monetary policy moves. That way they could find the signal in all the noise and focus only on the academic journals really driving public monetary policy.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Wall, Business, Federal Reserve, UBS, Fed, Bank of International
The Fed's next rate move will be to cut rates, former PIMCO chief economist Paul McCulley said. Some forecasters say the Fed will slash interest rates by nearly three percentage points next year. Most significant is the "crack" in shelter inflation, McCulley said, which rose 6.7% year-over-year in October. AdvertisementInvestors will debate over when the Fed will cut rates, he added, though most are expecting the first rate cut to happen sometime next year. Some economists, though, have cautioned that the Fed risks easing interest rates prematurely, which could eventually lead to a resurgence in inflation down the line.
Persons: Paul McCulley, McCulley, , That's, we've, Mohamed El Organizations: Service, CNBC, UBS, Fed
Prices of futures contracts that settle to the Fed's target rate were pricing in only about a 5% chance the Fed will raise its policy rate any higher than the current 5.25% to 5.50% range. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, rose 4%, the slowest pace in more than two years. "You can say goodbye to the rate hiking era," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. The Fed is now seen as more likely than not to deliver its first rate cut in May, and end 2024 with the short-term benchmark rate a full percentage point lower than today, based on rate futures pricing. "The Fed for now will maintain its tightening bias, erring on the side of caution," she wrote.
Persons: Brian Jacobsen, Jerome Powell, aren't, Kathy Bostjancic, Ann Saphir, Lucia Mutikani, Chuck Mikolajczak, Chizu Nomiyama, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Energy, Traders, Annex Wealth Management, Nationwide, Thomson Locations: U.S
A worker is reflected in a wall of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) head office in central Sydney, Australia, March 1, 2016. Speaking at a UBS conference, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Marion Kohler said inflation was still expected to decline but not expected to reach the top end of the RBA's 2%-3% target until the end of 2025. Consumer price inflation ran at 5.4% in the third quarter, down from a peak of 7.8% last year but above RBA expectations. As a result, the central bank revised up its forecasts for inflation and economic growth in its quarterly statement on policy released last week. Falling goods prices have led the slowdown in inflation, but domestically generated costs continued to rise, Kohler said.
Persons: David Gray, Marion Kohler, Kohler, Wayne Cole, Sam Holmes Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, Rights, UBS, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia
The logo of London Stock Exchange Group Plc in the office atrium in the City of London, UK, on Tuesday, March 14, 2023. LONDON — European markets are set to retreat on Friday morning after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is "not confident" it has done enough to rein in inflation. The Fed last week held rates unchanged, along with the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, with markets now turning their attention to when rate cuts will begin next year — a position central bankers have tentatively pushed back against. Stock futures stateside pointed to a fractionally higher open on Wall Street Friday. European shares closed Thursday's session up 0.8% after a boost from a strong set of corporate earnings reports, which will likely continue to drive individual share price action Friday.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, LONDON, Federal, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Stock Locations: City, City of London, Asia, Pacific, U.S
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich attend an inauguration event for Israel's new light rail line for the Tel Aviv metropolitan area, in Petah Tikva, Israel, August 17, 2023. REUTERS/Amir Cohen/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsJERUSALEM, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Israel's finance ministry said on Friday it would divert to the war effort some 1.6 billion shekels ($440 million) this year out of billions earmarked for parties in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition government. They expressed alarm last month at the government's plan to transfer 9 billion shekels ($2.2 billion) to ultra-Orthodox and far-right-wing pro-settler parties, as part of an agreement Netanyahu made with them to secure his ruling coalition. The finance ministry's proposal would cut around 70% of 2.5 billion shekels of funding for coalition partners still due to be paid in the current 2023 budget. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said in a letter on Friday that he planned to cut some 4 billion shekels ($1 billion) from the 2023 budget excluding war funding, and increase war funding by a further 9 billion, on top of 22 billion shekels already allocated.
Persons: Benjamin Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, Amir Cohen, Benjamin Netanyahu's, Netanyahu, Maytaal, Peter Graff Organizations: Israeli Finance, Tel, REUTERS, Rights, Finance, Thomson Locations: Tel Aviv, Petah Tikva, Israel
Cash from money market funds and other eligible firms flowing into the Fed's reverse repo facility stood at $993.3 billion on Thursday, which was the first time flows fell under the $1 trillion mark since Aug. 10, 2021. Until fairly recently, Fed efforts to pull liquidity out has had only a modest impact on the reverse repo inflows, which had held above $2 trillion per day until mid-June. J.P. Morgan economists said Thursday that reverse repo balances "should decline further" given what's happening with Treasury debt offerings. The accelerating decline of the reverse repo facility has fueled questions about how far the Fed has left to go on shrinking the size of its balance sheet. They project reverse repo levels will stand at $700 billion at that point.
Persons: Cash, Morgan, Michael S, Daniel Wallis, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Fed, Thomson
U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. The Australian dollar fell 0.5% overnight and was last at $0.6405, just above its 50-day moving average. It seems set for its largest weekly fall since June, as the central bank appeared to raise the bar for further hikes after lifting rates on Tuesday. In Asia, China's yuan touched a two-month high in overnight offshore trade. China's consumer prices fell in October, data showed on Thursday, stoking expectations for lower interest rates.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Gabriel Makhlouf, Joachim Nagel, Jane Foley, Mario Draghi, Brent, Ping, Michael Wan, Jerome Powell, Tom Westbrook, Christian Schmollinger Organizations: REUTERS, Central Bank's, Bank of Japan, Rabobank, Treasury, New Zealand, Canadian, Italian, ECB, Financial, Reuters, Ping An Insurance Group, HK, MUFG, Bank of Israel, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Ireland's, U.S, Asia, Europe, Singapore, East, Gaza City
REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Falling Treasury yields helped launch an explosive rebound in stocks and lifted U.S. government bonds from 16-year lows. Evidence of the dynamic between yields and financial conditions could be seen in last week’s 0.5% decline in the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index, its sixth biggest weekly drop since 1990. Policymakers have largely refrained from verbally pushing back on the easing in financial conditions during a flurry of appearances by policymakers this week. Analysts at TD Securities, however, believe further easing in Treasury yields will eventually become a "double-edged sword." To be sure, not every scenario sees the Fed in a higher-for-longer posture if Treasury yields continue falling.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Brian Jacobsen, Jacobsen, CME's, Sameer Samana, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Goldman, Treasury, Annex Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics, International Monetary Fund, TD Securities, Fed, Wells, Investment Institute, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, United States, China, Samana, U.S
At age 80, Byron Wien compiled “20 Life Lessons” from a long career as a Wall Street soothsayer. “If you work forever, you can live forever,’’ he explained. “I know there is an abundance of biological evidence against this theory, but I’m going with it anyway.”Mr. Wien (pronounced ween) didn’t outrun biology. But when he died on Oct. 25, at 90, he was still engrossed daily in reading the economic tea leaves for his most recent employer, the private equity firm Blackstone. He continued to call politicians, central bankers and financial titans around the world for intelligence to help shape his strategic reports for his firm.
Persons: Byron Wien, , , ’ ’, Mr, Blackstone, weren’t, Joan Solotar, Wien’s, Byron Organizations: titans, Blackstone
Inflation will drop sharply, but prices won't get back to the Fed's 2% target soon, Mohamed El-Erian said. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe economy will soon see a sharp drop in inflation – but that still won't be enough to return it to the central bank's target, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. Headline inflation accelerated 3.7% year-per-year in September, slightly above the expected 3.6% clip. Meanwhile, core inflation accelerated 4.1% year-per-year, in-line with economists' forecasts. Headline inflation is expected to accelerate 3.28% year-per-year, while core inflation is expected to remain mostly level at 4.16%, according to the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcast.
Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, , Goldman Sachs, Neel Kashkari, Powell Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Allianz, Federal, Minneapolis, of Labor Statistics, Cleveland
[1/2] A woman shops for groceries at El Progreso Market in the Mount Pleasant neighborhood of Washington, D.C., U.S., August 19, 2022. The U.S. banking sector was in turmoil in the spring as Silicon Valley Bank abruptly collapsed after grappling with large amounts of unrealized losses spurred by rapidly rising interest rates. She said reinflation was a risk, especially if banks do not correctly anticipate interest rate moves and adjust their portfolios appropriately. That led to unrealized losses across the sector coming under closer scrutiny. Global banking and securities regulators are also still grappling with the fallout from the collapse of Credit Suisse Group (CSGC.UL).
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Ana Arsov, Arsov, reinflation, ” Arsov, Tim Wennes, Paul Servais, Paritosh Bansal Tatiana Bautzer, Megan Davies, Lisa Shumaker, David Gregorio Our Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Reuters, Banco Santander, Global, Credit Suisse Group, UBS, Jean, International Organization of Securities Commissions, Financial, Swiss, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, U.S, SVB
Stock Market Today: Futures Tread Water; Fed's Powell Due to Speak
  + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
That is the key question for investors after a rally in U.S. stock and Treasury markets. U.S. stock futures suggested the rally could pause. Dow industrials futures traded flat. The 10-year yield traded around 4.6%, up from 4.570% on Tuesday. International stock markets broadly declined.
Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Fed, Nasdaq, Dow, U.S, Nikkei Locations: U.S, Washington . U.S, Europe
US stocks finished mixed on Wednesday as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq extended their winning streaks. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks finished mixed on Wednesday as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq extended their winning streaks, while the Dow ended its string of gains. The S&P 500 has now advanced for eight straight sessions, and the Nasdaq is up nine days in a row. AdvertisementAdvertisementMeanwhile, Treasury yields continued their descent from prior highs, but Wednesday's $40 billion auction of 10-year notes saw lukewarm demand.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Dow, Lisa Cook Organizations: Nasdaq, Treasury, Service, Dow, Dow Jones
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