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☆ Analysis: In Turkey, an election reckoning for the rise and fall of Erdogan's economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Jonathan Spicer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

The May 14 vote, which lands during the Turkish Republic's centenary year, is Erdogan's biggest test yet. At the same time, a global reversal in market liquidity left Turkey and other emerging markets starved for funding. But the economic crisis was damaging. This trend accelerated in 2013, wiping out big gains made in 2006-2010 during Erdogan's first decade in charge. "If Erdogan wins the election and continues his economic policy it will come to a complete crash at one point.

☆ ECB policymakers promise more hikes to beat inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The essence of the effort has been done, although there will probably be a few more rate hikes," Villeroy told French broadcaster Radio Classique. Villeroy explained Thursday's smaller rate increase by saying higher rates were beginning to have an effect on inflation. And two ECB surveys also published on Friday showed economists had cut their inflation forecasts for this year and the next - to 5.6% and 2.6% respectively - and that companies were moderating the pace of price hikes. The ECB aims to bring inflation back to 2% by 2025, "maybe even by the end of 2024", he added. "We will keep rates high for a sufficiently long time to get inflation back to 2%," the Lithuanian central bank chief said.

☆ Brazil's Haddad backs longer-term target for inflation, no talk of goal change
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BRASILIA, May 5 (Reuters) - Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said on Friday that he favored taking a long-term view of inflation and that the central bank could begin cutting interest rates. He added, however, that the government could not pre-empt any decision on changing the inflation targets set by the National Monetary Council consisting of himself, the planning minister, and the central bank governor. "I think continuous inflation targeting is much better than looking at the calendar year," Haddad said in an interview with CBN radio. The central bank, meanwhile, has suggested the discussion may have raised inflation expectations, requiring interest rates to remain at 13.75%, the highest they have been in the current cycle. Haddad reiterated criticism of the central bank, saying the bank could already begin cutting rates.

☆ Lebanon central bank chief's brother questioned at European fraud probe hearing
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

In a nearly five-hour session in which Raja was questioned about his brother's wealth, he told investigators that Forry was solely owned by him. He said $155 million in funds he amassed came from investment profits made over ten years from accrued interest and foreign exchange transactions. The documents say prosecutors suspect Riad used fake banking documents in Raja's name to cover up illicit sources of wealth. The European investigators are also set on Friday to question caretaker finance minister Youssef el-Khalil , who still serves as the central bank's head of financial operations. French prosecutors have informed Riad that they intend to press charges of fraud and aggravated money laundering during a planned hearing in France on May 16.

☆ South Korea's finance minister says country is at a 'turning point' in relations with Japan
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

South Korea Finance Minister Choo Kyung-ho attends the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Nusa Dua, on Indonesia resort island of Bali, on July 16, 2022. (Photo by MADE NAGI / POOL / AFP) (Photo by MADE NAGI/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)South Korea's finance minister says the nation sees is at a "turning point" in economic relations with Japan. Speaking to CNBC's Chery Kang at the Asian Development Bank's annual meeting in Incheon, South Korea's finance minister and deputy prime minister Choo Kyung-ho praised Tokyo's recent decision to restore South Korea to a list of preferred trade partners. Choo said the recent talks with Suzuki will lead to further economic cooperation between the two U.S. allies. "The recent bilateral summit has opened things up for improvement.

☆ Japan, South Korea hold first finance leaders' meeting in seven years
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Japan Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki arrives for the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting on April 13, 2023. Japan and South Korea held their first bilateral finance leaders' meeting in seven years on Tuesday, a sign relations between the two are thawing as they confront shared challenges from geopolitical tensions and slowing economic growth. The two countries agreed to resume regular finance dialogue "at an appropriate timing," Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki told reporters after the meeting. The resumption of bilateral financial discussions comes ahead of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's planned visit to South Korea next week for talks with President Yoon Suk Yeol. "Japan and South Korea are important neighbors that must cooperate to address various challenges surrounding the global and economy, as well as the regional and international community," Suzuki said at the meeting with his South Korean counterpart Choo Kyung-ho.

LONDON, May 1 (Reuters) - Inflation in the euro area is too high for comfort, meaning markets expect the European Central Bank to deliver its seventh straight interest rate hike on Thursday. 1/ How much will the ECB hike rates by on Thursday? Most analysts expect at least one more rate move after Thursday, even as the Federal Reserve looks set to pause its rate hike campaign. Market pricing suggests ECB rates will peak around 3.6% this year, and Belgium's central bank governor Pierre Wunsch says he wouldn't be surprised to see rates rise to 4%. Tuesday's bank lending should offer some clues but it might be too early to gauge the full impact of the March banking crisis on financing conditions.

☆ S.Korea finmin: S.Korea, Japan, China cooperation more important as world economy at inflection point
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

INCHEON, South Korea, May 2 (Reuters) - South Korea's finance minister said on Tuesday that the trilateral cooperation between South Korea, Japan and China has became more important as the global economy stands at an inflection point. Minister Choo Kyung-ho said such cooperation would not only help the three countries, which account for more than 20% of the world economy, but also the Asian region and the world, during his opening remarks at a trilateral meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors. The countries' economic leaders met on the sidelines of the Asian Development Bank's annual meeting of the board of governors held in Incheon, South Korea. Reporting by Jihoon Lee; Editing by Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Italy signed up to China's Belt and Road Initiative. Now it's having second thoughts
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

At the time, analysts said that by joining the project, Italy was undermining Europe's ability to stand up to Beijing. Two years down the line and with a new government in place, Rome is now having another think about its ties with China. China sees Taiwan as a breakaway province, while Taiwan sees itself as separate from China, having ruled itself since splitting from the mainland in 1949 following a protracted civil war. If Italy chooses closer ties to Taiwan that will surely jeopardize its relations with China. "I believe they might not decide anything," Menegazzi said, suggesting the Italian government will continue its Belt and Road participation for now.

In March, depositors fled Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O), withdrawing $42 billion in 24 hours, some via their mobile phones. Information about the bank's difficulties spread fast online, creating a social media-driven bank run. Officials said the bank turbulence added urgency to discussions of a European Commission proposal to broaden the EU's bank resolution framework, now applied to just over 100 of the biggest European banks, to smaller and medium-sized lenders. The proposal, called Crisis Management and Deposit Insurance (CMDI) was requested by EU finance ministers in mid-2022. It would ensure that the resolution of smaller banks could be paid for from the EU's resolution fund, financed by banks, rather than by taxpayers.

☆ Russia should not take temporary control of foreign banks' units, central-bank governor says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday signed a decree placing the Russian assets of Finland's Fortum (FORTUM.HE) and Germany's Uniper (UN01.DE), which both operate power plants in Russia, under Moscow's control. "Such decisions should be made with very good reasons, connected to the stable functioning of the Russian economy," Nabiullina said when asked whether Russia could do the same with banks. Foreign banks have stepped in to take business from Russian lenders hit by sweeping Western sanctions imposed after Moscow despatched troops to Ukraine in February 2022. Austria's Raiffeisen Bank International (RBIV.VI), earned more than half of its profit last year from Russia. Reporting by Elena Fabrichnaya, Vladimir Soldatkin, Alexander Marrow and Jake Cordell; Editing by Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ European investigators question Lebanon c.bank chief's assistant in fraud probe
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BEIRUT, April 27 (Reuters) - European investigators in Beirut questioned an assistant to Lebanon's central bank governor on Thursday as part of a probe into whether the governor embezzled and laundered hundreds of millions of dollars in public funds, local media and a judicial source said. Marianne Houayek, 42 and a longtime assistant to the governor, was scheduled to be questioned as a suspect, according to a schedule for the European investigators seen by Reuters. A French court document seen by Reuters says up to $5 million euros from the central bank ultimately went to Houayek via accounts in Switzerland and Luxembourg. The European investigators questioned the governor in Beirut in March and returned on Monday for further hearings. The European investigators are also set to question caretaker finance minister Youssef el-Khalil, who still serves as the central bank's head of financial operations, as well as other top officials of the bank.

☆ Bank of Mexico likely to consider holding key interest rate steady
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MEXICO CITY, April 25 (Reuters) - The Bank of Mexico's governing board may consider keeping its benchmark interest rate steady at its next monetary policy meeting, in what would be its first rate hold after 15 straight hikes, Central Bank Governor Victoria Rodriguez said on Tuesday. Banxico, as the Mexican central bank is known, hiked its key lending rate by 25 basis points to 11.25% at its March 29 meeting, moderating the pace of a tightening cycle that began in mid-2021 and striking a more dovish tone. For nearly two years, the bank has boosted borrowing costs to slow the rise in consumer prices. Banxico would keep close watch on so-called core inflation, Rodriguez added. "At least for the next decisions, we will not yet discuss the possibility of a rate decrease.

The country's IPCA-15 inflation index eased to a 30-month low of 4.16% from 5.36% in the previous month, government statistics agency IBGE said on Wednesday, coming in below market consensus of 4.20% in a Reuters poll of economists. The latest data comes a day after central bank Governor Roberto Campos Neto ruled out an imminent interest rate cut, saying in a Senate hearing that the current rate was appropriate to address inflation concerns. "Will RCN and his team wait for current inflation to reach 3% before starting to cut interest rates?" William Jackson, Capital Economics' chief emerging markets economist, said he doubts policymakers will pivot to interest rate cuts imminently, considering that core inflation remains strong and the central bank has been striking a hawkish tone. "All told, the inflation picture continues to improve in Brazil," Pantheon Macroeconomics' chief Latin America economist Andres Abadia said.

Companies European Central Bank FollowLONDON, April 24 (Reuters) - France's central bank governor François Villeroy de Galhau has pushed back against criticism of central banks' increasing involvement in the fight against climate change, calling the issue a "must have" focus. "Central banks' core mandate worldwide is price stability, and climate change already affects the level of prices and activity," Villeroy stressed. The debate about how much influence central banks can have in tackling climate issues has become increasingly divisive this year. Villeroy, however, who has long been a firm advocate of doing more, urged central banks and others to come up with better models of how climate change is likely to alter economies. It is also aiming to release short-term climate change scenarios by the end of 2024, which should show more adverse developments, incorporate tougher "shocks" and directly explore the potential impacts of climate change on inflation.

☆ Guatemala not asking Taiwan for 'free money', does not owe debt like Honduras
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/3] A Taiwan and Guatemala flag is seen at an investment event in Taipei, Taiwan April 24, 2023. REUTERS/Ann WangTAIPEI, April 24 (Reuters) - Guatemala is not asking for "free money" from Taiwan and does not owe debt in the same way Honduras does, but is looking for long-term investment and trade, senior Guatemalan financial officials said on Monday. Guatemala is one of only 13 countries to maintain formal diplomatic ties with Chinese-claimed Taiwan. Honduras abandoned Taipei for Beijing last month after asking for almost $2.5 billion in aid. "We heard it in the news, but we are focused on solutions that we need for our country," Rosales said of China's comments.

☆ French prosecutors accuse Lebanon central bank chief of hiding fraud
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIRUT/PARIS, April 21 (Reuters) - French prosecutors have told Lebanon's central bank governor Riad Salameh they plan to press preliminary fraud and money laundering charges against him, partly based on allegedly forged bank statements used to conceal his wealth, according to French court documents seen by Reuters. During that hearing, French prosecutors intend to press the preliminary charges and formally name him a suspect. As part of his response to accusations, Salameh sent French prosecutors a 65-page memo supplied by Marwan Kheireddine, the chairman of Lebanon's AM Bank. But according to the French court documents seen by Reuters, French investigators have reached the conclusion the bank statements were fake. Salameh "used fake records of bank accounts at AM Bank… provided by Marwan Kheireddine, to justify in a deceitful manner the origin of his properties or revenues," French prosecutors say in the court documents.

☆ Dollar snaps five-week losing streak as bets on US rate hike in May firm
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar slipped against the Japanese yen in early Asia trade, though it rose against most major currencies, with the U.S. dollar index edging 0.06% higher to 101.84. Rising expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May have lent some support to the greenback. "I don't think Ueda is going to change policy at his first meeting next week," said CBA's Capurso. In other currencies, the Aussie was last 0.07% lower at $0.6738, while the kiwi fell 0.12% to $0.61705. Data out on Thursday showed that New Zealand's consumer price inflation was lower than expectations in the first quarter, though it remained near historic highs.

☆ Dollar snaps five-week losing streak as bets on U.S. rate hike in May firm
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Bundles of U.S. 100 dollar banknotes arranged at the Shinhan Bank headquarters, a unit of Shinhan Financial Group Co., in Seoul, South Korea, Sept. 14, 2022. The dollar slipped against the Japanese yen in early Asia trade, though it rose against most major currencies, with the U.S. dollar index edging 0.06% higher to 101.84. Rising expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May have lent some support to the greenback. "The U.S. economy is heading to recession," said Joseph Capurso, head of international and sustainable economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "I don't think Ueda is going to change policy at his first meeting next week," said CBA's Capurso.

☆ Russia floats idea of paying foreign companies selling assets in bonds, not cash
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MOSCOW, April 20 (Reuters) - Russia will work on a proposal to pay foreign companies selling assets in the country with central bank bonds tied to Russian reserves frozen abroad, instead of cash, the central bank said on Thursday, as a way to reduce rouble volatility. The Russian currency slumped to a more than one-year low this month, which traders and analysts blamed in part on foreign firms selling their Russian assets to local buyers, although the central bank has sought to play down the impact of such transactions. The finance ministry has said exit transactions should be carried out within strict limits under central bank control. Such a radical move would face several obstacles, primarily, according to Nabiullina, that linking bonds to frozen assets may need Russia to disclose the structure and location of its reserves. She added that "forcibly imposing" these bonds on companies, or having foreign regulators in other jurisdictions unfreeze Russian assets was unlikely to be possible.

☆ Russian inflation risks must ease to make room for rate cut - central bank
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The central bank has become more wary of inflation this year, warning of the risks of a widening budget deficit, weaker rouble and labour shortages. Annual inflation decelerated sharply to 3.51% last month due to the high base effect. "In order to create space for further rate cuts, it is necessary that pro-inflationary risks decrease. "If we sacrifice price stability, we will not be able to protect our citizens and enterprises in the future." Reporting by Elena Fabrichnaya and Alexander Marrow Editing by Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

chartEither way, extremely low U.S. volatility generally bodes well for other stock markets. And worrying UK inflation figures may extend a dark shadow over Asia. Figures on Wednesday showed that Britain was the only country in western Europe with double-digit inflation in March, prompting several banks to raise their UK rate outlook. UK money markets are pricing in a further 75 basis points of tightening this year, taking the base rate up to 5%. Meanwhile, Australia's central bank governor Philip Lowe addresses the media on Thursday and India's central bank releases the minutes of its last policy meeting.

Unlike a growing number of central banks in Asia who have pressed the pause button or are close to doing so, the BoE and ECB are both expected to continue raising rates in their battle to get inflation back down towards target. St Louis Fed president James Bullard is much more hawkish though, as he confirmed in an interview with Reuters. The central banks of Australia, Indonesia, India, Singapore and South Korea have all paused, and the Philippine central bank governor signaled a pause in May. But the road ahead looks bumpy, and other indicators for March were mixed - retail sales smashed forecasts, but investment fell short. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Unlike a growing number of central banks in Asia who have pressed the pause button or are close to doing so, the BoE and ECB are both expected to continue raising rates in their battle to get inflation back down towards target. St Louis Fed president James Bullard is much more hawkish though, as he confirmed in an interview with Reuters. The central banks of Australia, Indonesia, India, Singapore and South Korea have all paused, and the Philippine central bank governor signaled a pause in May. Research from the Bank for International Settlements shows that the global tightening cycle since the start of last year is the most synchronized and strongest over the past 50 years, with more than 95% of central banks raising their policy rates. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Russia building reserves in assets the West can't sanction - central bank chief
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

SummarySummary Companies This content was produced in Russia where the law restricts coverage of Russian military operations in Ukraine. MOSCOW, April 18 (Reuters) - Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said on Tuesday Russia is building its international reserves with assets that cannot be targeted by Western sanctions, the TASS news agency reported. Western countries froze around $300 billion - or half - of Russia's international reserves after Moscow sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine last year. The central bank has previously said it considers gold, Chinese yuan and foreign currency held in cash as safe from possible further rounds of Western sanctions. Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Andrew HeavensOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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