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☆ Consumers feel credit getting harder to come by, Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Minneapolis CNN —US consumers are starting to feel that credit is getting harder to come by, according to survey results released Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. For the first time since October, US consumers’ year-ahead inflation expectations increased. Near-term inflation expectations increased 0.52 percentage points to 4.7%, according to the New York Fed’s March 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations. It’s the largest jump in one-year inflation expectations since March of last year. The Fed closely watches measurements of inflation expectations.

☆ NY Fed index shows global supply chain pressures eased further in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The bank said that as of March, its Global Supply Chain Pressure index moved to a reading of -1.06, versus the revised -0.28 seen in February. "Global supply chain conditions have largely normalized after experiencing temporary setbacks around the turn of the year," the bank said in its report. The index has seen extended periods of below-average supply chain stress and was in negative territory during the summer of 2019, ahead of the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. There was also an extended period of below-normal supply chain stress between roughly 2011 and 2016. But price pressures driven by non-energy service factors stripped of housing are "having the most trouble" abating, Williams said.

☆ Gold dips as stronger dollar dampens appeal
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 3 (Reuters) - Gold prices slipped on Monday as a sturdy dollar made the greenback-denominated metal less affordable for buyers holding other currencies. FUNDAMENTALS* Spot gold was down 0.3% at $1,962.36 per ounce, as of 0049 GMT. * The opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion rises when interest rates are increased to bring down inflation. * Markets see a 48.4% chance of the Fed hiking rates by a quarter point in May, according to the CME FedWatch tool. DATA/EVENTS (GMT)0145 China Caixin Mfg PMI Final0750 France S&P Global Mfg PMI0755 Germany S&P Global/BME Mfg PMI0800 EU S&P Global Mfg Final PMI0830 UK S&P GLBL/CIPS Mfg Final PMI1345 US S&P Global Mfg PMI Final1400 US ISM Manufacturing PMIReporting by Kavya Guduru in Bengaluru; editing by Uttaresh VenkateshwaranOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ 5 must-see charts that show why the economy is barreling toward disaster — putting stocks at risk for massive declines
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below-trend growth and some softening in labor market conditions," Powell said. "Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run." A large enough pullback in lending will send the economy into a downward spiral, he said. "If you get a credit crunch, you could have an immediate downturn in the economy, a very quick downturn," he said. Credit spreads are the gap between high-risk bond yields and yields on risk-free bonds.

☆ Fed's Williams says financial conditions key to rate policy outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, March 31 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said Friday uncertain developments with financial conditions will be a key contributor to his thinking about what’s next for central bank interest rate policy. When the Fed met last week and raised its overnight target rate it noted that tighter financial conditions will likely weigh on growth. In thinking about monetary policy, “I will be particularly focused on assessing the evolution of credit conditions and their effects on the outlook for growth, employment, and inflation,” Williams said in his speech. The New York Fed president’s remarks Friday were his first since the FOMC met last week. In his remarks, Williams laid out some short-term pain for the economy as the Fed uses policy to cool inflation.

☆ A bond-market indicator shows there's trouble brewing in the banking system, warns a top market researcher — and investors are underestimating the risk posed to the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The index measures volatility in the bond market, like the CBOE VIX does for stocks. The bond market is flashing a warning sign that something is going awry in the banking system, says Jim Bianco, the founder of market research firm Bianco Research. That alarm bell is heightened volatility in the bond market, Bianco told Insider this week. The Intercontinental Exchange Bank of America MOVE Index — which measures bond-market volatility, similar to how the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) measures volatility in the stock market — has shot up to its second-highest level in three decades. "Every time it's spiked this high in the past, things have gotten bad," he said, referring to the bond volatility index shown above.

The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates repeatedly since 2022, and that makes credit card debt expensive. With debt balances at $986 billion, Americans will pay $45 billion more in interest than they would have. Black and Hispanic Americans are more likely to have credit card debt than white Americans. At the beginning of 2022, the average credit card interest rate was 16.17%, according to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. Ways to take control of your credit card debtIf you find yourself with large credit card debt, it's a good idea to pay it off quickly.

☆ U.S. Treasury says FSOC agreed banking system sound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

WASHINGTON, March 24 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury said that the multi-regulator Financial Stability Oversight Council agreed in a meeting on Friday that the U.S. banking system remains "sound and resilient" despite stress on some institutions. In a readout of the closed meeting held by videoconference, the Treasury said that FSOC participants heard a presentation on market developments from the staff of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. "The Council discussed current conditions in the banking sector and noted that while some institutions have come under stress, the U.S. banking system remains sound and resilient," the Treasury said in a statement. Reporting by David Lawder; editing by Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ U.S. regulators say banking system 'sound and resilient'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( David Lawder | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

WASHINGTON, March 24 (Reuters) - The multi-regulator U.S. Financial Stability Oversight Council agreed on Friday that the U.S. banking system remains "sound and resilient" despite stress on some institutions, the U.S. Treasury said in its latest statement to calm jittery markets and bank depositors. "The Council discussed current conditions in the banking sector and noted that while some institutions have come under stress, the U.S. banking system remains sound and resilient," the Treasury said in a statement. They added that the basis of the Treasury, Fed and FDIC determinations in the SVB and Signature cases "are of particular importance." Those actions to invoke "systemic risk exceptions" were taken by Yellen, President Joe Biden, the FDIC, and the Fed, which supervised Silicon Valley and Signature. Reporting by David Lawder; additional reporting by Pete Schroeder; Editing by Diane Craft and Marguerita ChoyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Factbox: Warren Buffett's investments in financial firms
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Inc, pauses while playing bridge as part of the company annual meeting weekend in Omaha, Nebraska U.S. May 6, 2018. Here is history on Buffett's involvement with banks and current holdings in his investment portfolio. The investment gave Berkshire preferred stock that paid a 10% along with warrants to pay $5 billion for 43.5 million Goldman shares at $115 each. Berkshire has financial services investments in other countries. Reporting by Jonathan Stempel in New York Editing by Nick ZieminskiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Goldman Sachs just raised their recession probability due to stress in the banking system. These 20 stocks are least sensitive to an economic downturn, the bank says.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank have all battled woes in the last week. Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York both closed in recent days as a result of a run on deposits. Silicon Valley Bank had taken significant losses on bond investments, causing depositors to worry that their money would not be safe. This fear spread to customers of Signature Bank, which then sold assets at a loss to meet liquidity demands. First Republic Bank also appeared to have insufficient liquidity to weather a bank run, fueling concerns that it would be closed down.

☆ A 27-year market vet warns that regional banks will be more reluctant to loan money to their communities in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank closure — pulling forward a recession and causing stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Depositors at other banks may fear for the security of their money, and rush to withdrawal all at once. "If those lending standards tighten, that's going to cramp consumer spending — 70% of the economy — you drag forward the recession." Naturally, such a drag on consumer spending will hurt corporate earnings, leading investors to discount forward earnings expectations, Roberts said. Right now, the median 2023 earnings per share target among major Wall Street strategists is $210. That probability level is low relative to the rest of Wall Street, according to a Wall Street Journal survey that show a median probability of 65%.

☆ U.S. poised to tighten reporting rules on $20 tln private fund sector
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Douglas Gillison | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

March 17 (Reuters) - Wall Street's top regulator is set to adopt new rules aimed at bolstering oversight of systemic risk in the burgeoning, multitrillion-dollar world of private equity and hedge-funds. As proposed in January 2022, the rule would require reporting of such events to the SEC within one business day. The agency billed the new rule in part as a means of supporting the Financial Stability Oversight Council, a multi-agency risk-monitoring body also created under Dodd-Frank. The proposal offered "scant evidence" that it would enhance FSOC's monitoring for systemic risk, she said in dissenting remarks against the proposal, adding that it would likely become a tool "for government to micromanage private fund risk management." Reporting by Douglas Gillison; Editing by David GregorioOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ U.S. to pledge over $171 mln in aid for Venezuela -US official
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON, March 17 (Reuters) - The United States plans to pledge over $171 million in funding for Venezuela at a donor conference on Friday in Brussels, a U.S. official told Reuters, as the country's opposition awaits U.S. moves to process frozen Venezuelan government funds. The pledge is expected to come at a European Union-backed conference focused on building solidarity with Venezuelan refugees and migrants. The U.S. official did not provide details on the funding, which builds on a further $376 million in funding Washington pledged last year. Washington backs Venezuela's opposition, recognizing its parallel legislature and decrying what it says is President Nicolas Maduro's dictatorship. Under the administration of former President Donald Trump, the United States intensified its sanctions against the South American country.

☆ Inside a women-only poker night at the New York Stock Exchange: 'If it's worth betting, it's worth raising'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Hayley Cuccinello | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

BNY Mellon threw a women-only poker night at the NYSE to celebrate International Women's Day. Hours after the markets had closed, I was at the New York Stock Exchange learning how to play poker. This women-only poker night was thrown by Bank of New York Mellon on March 9, the day after International Women's Day. "Aggression is actually a winning strategy," said AJ Rudolph, the director of education and technology at Power Poker, as she walked us through the basics of poker. The Poker Power chips featured Frida Kahlo, Malala Yousafzai, Maya Angelou, and Rosie the Riveter.

[1/2] A logo of Airbus is seen at the entrance of its factory in Blagnac near Toulouse, France, July 2, 2020. But whereas this makes up some 12% of market forecasts for Boeing's 2023 deliveries, Airbus has secured just 9% of its 2023 target of 720 jets, below the trend for this time of year. After missed targets in 2022, Airbus Chief Executive Guillaume Faury has told executives that 2023 will be "make or break" for the company's industrial reputation, industry sources said. In February, Airbus delivered 46 jets, up from 20 in January, for a total of 66 in the first two months of 2023. Lessors have said both jetmakers are delivering planes three-to-six months late, though Airbus is pushing to maintain higher industrial output.

☆ Bank rescue buys stability at a high price
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Along the way, they also closed down another struggling lender, Signature Bank of New York. First, the FDIC will reimburse all of the two banks’ depositors, not just those whose balances are within the $250,000 guaranteed limit. In the event that the bank’s assets, after a sale, are below the value of the deposits, that cost will be spread among all FDIC-insured banks. Follow @johnsfoley on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSFinancial authorities teamed up on March 12 to protect the depositors of failed U.S. lender Silicon Valley Bank. The authorities also said that Signature Bank, a New York-based lender, was also closed on March 12.

☆ Bank-rule pendulum swings back to 'safety first'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, March 13 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The crisis that struck the U.S. banking system over the weekend had many causes. After the 2008 crisis, Congress bound up the financial system with rules to prevent bank death spirals. The major financial authorities – the Fed, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency – applied the lighter touch. The Fed was permitted to retain tough rules for banks with assets over $100 billion, but decided not to. There are, after all, only 17 banks with assets between $100 billion and $250 billion – two fewer than last week.

☆ The Second-Biggest Bank Failure
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Karl Russell | Christine Zhang | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +5 min

A bar chart of U.S. bank failures since 2001, showing that Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse was the second-biggest in U.S. history in terms of assets. Before Silicon Valley Bank, the last firm to fail was in late 2020, as the coronavirus was ravaging the country. It’s unclear whether the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank will spread to the broader industry. Silicon Valley Bank 209 17. Silicon Valley Bank 209 Fifth Third Bank 17.

☆ SVB debacle sparks rush to defensive options on fears of contagion
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A California regulator shut Silicon Valley Bank on Friday and appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation as receiver, according to the agency's statement. With many stocks in the sector falling sharply on Friday, traders rushed in to defensive bets. SVB is battling cash burn due to declining deposits from startups struggling with a venture capital funding drought. While investors had largely shrugged off Silvergate’s troubles as strictly crypto-related, "(SVB Financial Group) was a giant wake-up call about the effects of rising rates and an inverted yield curve," Sosnick said. Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed in New York Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Matthew LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dow and S&P 500 updates: Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Alicia Wallace | Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

This time last year, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's congressional address came on the heels of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, surging gas prices and a significant escalation in US inflation. The economy continuing to rebound and repair itself from the lingering effects of the pandemic — including the disruptions of the Omicron variant. Faced with a strong labor market, uncertain geopolitical developments and surging inflation, Powell told members of Congress then that he'd likely propose a quarter-point rate hike at the central bank's forthcoming meeting — which he did. Since then, the central bank has hiked its benchmark interest rate eight times, bringing borrowing rates from almost zero to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. There are signals that some inflationary pressures have eased, however: China's economic growth was recently downgraded; and supply chain disruptions are easing, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported Monday.

☆ What’s changed since Powell last headed to Capitol Hill
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

It’s his first appearance before the committee since June last year, when inflation was on its way to 9%. Inflation has slowed in recent months, measuring 6.4% in January after hitting a 40-year high of 9.1% in June. Faced with a strong labor market, uncertain geopolitical developments and surging inflation, Powell told members of Congress then that he’d likely propose a quarter-point rate hike at the central bank’s forthcoming meeting. It’s now March 2023, and the central bank is faced with an “extraordinarily strong” labor market, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and stubborn inflation. One month ago, the probability for a half-point increase was 3.3%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

☆ Consumers keep spending. That might not be good news for them or the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

And by November and December, those predictions appeared to be materializing, when data showed consumers had pulled back during the holiday shopping season. During a month chock full of suprisingly strong economic data, the Commerce Department’s retail sales and consumer spending reports far surpassed expectations. “It’s not sustainable to keep spending above their means.”Eyes on the FedHearty consumer spending at a time like this is a double-edged sword, said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst for Bankrate and CreditCards.com. “The resilience of consumer spending is probably the biggest thing that’s pushed this recession timetable out,” Rossman said. The Home Depot (HD) warned of flat sales for 2023 as consumers continue shift spending from goods to services.

☆ This half-century old fund seeks out global value and has Warren Buffett's style all over it
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Warren Buffett has inspired generations of value investors, and one 53-year-old, market-beating mutual fund has his legacy all over it. For almost three decades, starting in 1979, the fund was run by another acolyte of value, Jean-Marie Eveillard. Since 1979, First Eagle Global has returned more than 12% annually, even including the 5% load fee charged on the first $25,000 invested. The fund employs three main elements when it comes to security selection within the universe of global value, Brooker said. When we're not able to find things that make sense to us, that meet our underwriting criteria, we'll wait in cash," Brooker said.

☆ People are over the 40-hour workweek: 'We don't want to waste our time'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Morgan Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

As a result, more people are breaking out of the 40-hour workweek. "People have a much lower tolerance for this, and are less afraid to say, 'We don't want to waste our time.'" "Like, if you're making me come to the office or attend an on-site meeting, it better be good." Time is moneyRising inflation and the overall increased cost of living have made the monetary value of people's time even more salient. In fact, 73% of U.S. workers plan to freelance this year, according to Fiverr, which polled 2,000 workers in December 2022.

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