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Default wave imminent, will peak in 2024, Deutsche Bank says
  + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
Deutsche expects default rates to peak in the fourth quarter of next year. It forecast peak default rates to reach 9% for U.S. high-yield debt, 11.3% for U.S. loans, 4.4% for European high-yield bonds and 7.3% for European loans. The estimate for a U.S. loan peak default rate of 11.3% would be a near all-time high, compared to a peak of 12% during the 2007-2008 global financial crisis and 7.7% during the U.S. technology bubble in the late 1990s, Deutsche noted. Within the European high-yield bond market, real estate was the sector facing the greatest pressure and accounted for over half of all European high-yield distressed debt, Deutsche said. Still, that would not prevent a base case of rising default rates, Deutsche said.
Persons: Chiara Elisei, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, U.S, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: United States, Europe, Germany, U.S
May 31 (Reuters) - Oil prices settled lower on Wednesday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and weak data from top oil importer China that fed demand fears. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. U.S. data showed job openings unexpectedly rose in April, pointing to persistent strength in the labor market that could push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in June. HSBC said stronger oil demand from China and the West from the summer onwards will trigger a supply deficit in the second half. U.S. crude oil and gasoline stockpiles were seen falling last week, while distillate inventories likely increased, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.
Persons: Brent, Bob Yawger, Goldman Sachs, Stephen Brennock, Rowena Edwards, Trixie Yap, Stephanie Kelly, Yuka Obayashi, David Evans, Emelia, Lisa Shumaker, David Gregorio Our Organizations: . West Texas, Senate, Federal Reserve, Mizuho, Traders, Organization of, Petroleum, HSBC, Energy, American Petroleum Institute, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, Russia, London, Singapore, New York, Tokyo
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index slipped to 102.3 this month, the lowest level since last November, from an upwardly revised 103.7 in April. The cutoff date for the survey, which places more emphasis on the labor market, was May 22. The survey's so-called labor market differential, derived from data on respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, fell to 31.0, the lowest since April 2021, from 36.9 in April, suggesting the labor market was loosening up. More timely data like first-time applications for state unemployment benefits suggests the labor market remains tight, but is gradually easing. "Investors should expect Friday's job report to reveal emerging cracks in the labor market."
Persons: Christopher Rupkey, Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Jeffrey Roach, Nicole Bachaud, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: Labor, Conference, Social Security, Medicare, Reuters, University of, Republican U.S . House, Sunday, U.S . Labor Department, LPL, Treasury, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, New York, North Carolina, U.S, Seattle
WASHINGTON, May 28 (Reuters) - Republican U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Sunday dismissed vehement opposition among party hardliners to a new agreement with President Joe Biden to suspend the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, predicting that most House Republicans would support the deal. House Republicans expected to unveil legislation to pass the deal later on Sunday. But McCarthy dismissed threats of opposition within his own party, saying "over 95%" of House Republicans were "overwhelmingly excited" about the deal. "This is a good strong bill that a majority of Republicans will vote for," the California Republican told reporters in the U.S. Capitol. Progressive Democrats in both chambers have said they would not support any deal that has additional work requirements for food and healthcare programs.
[1/5] U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo speaks with delegates during the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework meeting in Detroit, Michigan U.S. May 27, 2023. The deal provides an emergency communications channel for IPEF countries to seek support during supply chain disruptions, coordinate more closely during a crisis and recover more quickly. It absolutely would have helped us secure American jobs and keep supply chains moving," she said. The supply chains agreement, led by Commerce, marks the first tangible outcome of a year's worth of IPEF discussions. The supply chains agreement also includes a new labor rights advisory board aimed at raising labor standards in supply chains, consisting of government, worker, and employer representatives, the Commerce Department said.
May 24 (Reuters) - Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced on Wednesday he is seeking the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, joining former President Donald Trump in a growing list of Republicans seeking to unseat Democratic President Joe Biden. Here is a list of declared candidates and other potential 2024 hopefuls in both the Democratic and Republican parties. The former Kansas congressman was one of Trump's most loyal lieutenants and initially backed his false claims of a stolen presidential election in 2020. Several of his key staff, though, have recently joined the DeSantis camp, suggesting that Youngkin is not going to run in 2024. She ran as a Democrat in the 2020 presidential primary but dropped out of the race before any votes had been cast.
Persons: Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, JOE BIDEN Biden, DONALD TRUMP Trump, Biden, Trump, RON DESANTIS, DeSantis, SCOTT, Scott, NIKKI HALEY, Haley, ASA HUTCHINSON, Hutchinson, MIKE, Pence, Trump's, CHRIS CHRISTIE, Christie, CHRIS SUNUNU The, VIVEK RAMASWAMY, Ramaswamy, ROBERT KENNEDY JR, Kennedy, Robert F, MIKE POMPEO Trump's, GLENN YOUNGKIN, MARIANNE WILLIAMSON, Ross Colvin, Colleen Jenkins, Nick Zieminski, Mark Potter Organizations: Democratic, Republican, Biden, Trump, Republican Party, New, Walt Disney Co, Black Republican U.S, Reuters, United Nations, ASA, White House, U.S . Capitol, Republican White House, YouTube, Central Intelligence Agency, White, Democrat, Thomson Locations: Florida, U.S, New York, Ukraine, South Carolina, Arkansas, Pence, New Jersey, CHRIS SUNUNU The New Hampshire, England, Kansas, Virginia
With only 1% of support among registered Republicans according to Reuters/Ipsos polling, Scott faces an uphill battle in his bid to win the Republican nomination to take on Democratic President Joe Biden next year. Some 49% of Republicans plan to vote for Trump, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling. Scott, 57, is likely to be the only Republican senator to jump into the race, an oddity given that the Senate has traditionally been a staging ground for Republicans with presidential aspirations. Among his political assets are his popularity in South Carolina, which plays a key role in the Republican race. Reporting by Gram Slattery; Editing by Will Dunham and Scott MaloneOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
A White House official confirmed the talks were resuming. "We've got to get movement from the White House and we don't have any movement yet," McCarthy told reporters during the pause in talks. A White House official said: "There are real differences between the parties on budget issues and talks will be difficult. Biden and McCarthy spent most of the year in an impasse with the White House insisting on a "clean" increase in the debt ceiling without conditions. A White House official said a deal remained possible.
The impoverished child of a single mother and the only Black Republican in the U.S. Senate, Scott often points to his personal story as proof that America remains a land of promise. As a Black conservative, Scott is a rarity in a country where politics are sharply divided along racial lines. Some 92% of Black voters backed Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, while 55% of white voters backed Trump. At the same time, the South Carolina senator has accused Democrats of exploiting racial tensions for partisan gain. Scott's entrance into the race puts him in direct competition with Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, who launched her campaign in February.
Deere & Co (DE.N) rose 4.4% after the heavy machinery company raised its annual net income forecast buoyed by robust farm incomes. The benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX) and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) were set for their best weekly performance since late March amid positive debt ceiling talks, less-than-feared earnings and economic data. The S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) is on course to end the week 5.4% higher, snapping a three-week losing streak. Over 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported, of which around 77% beat earnings expectations, according to Refinitiv data. The S&P index recorded 27 new 52-week highs and one new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 58 new highs and 28 new lows.
S&P 500 futures hit a 15-week high in early trading, while Nasdaq e-minis breached levels not seen in nine months. The positive momentum carried through for much of the week as investors tracked progress in talks between top U.S. lawmakers for an agreement on increasing the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. ET, Dow e-minis were up 101 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 12.25 points, or 0.29%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 6 points, or 0.04%. The benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX) and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) were set for their best weekly performance since late March amid positive debt ceiling talks, less-than-feared earnings and economic data. The S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) is on course to end the week 5.3% higher, snapping a three-week losing streak.
Republican Senator Tim Scott to run for president
  + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Reuters Editorial | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
PoliticsRepublican Senator Tim Scott to run for presidentPostedRepublican U.S. Senator Tim Scott has entered the 2024 presidential race, according to a filing with the U.S. election regulator on Friday, in what amounts to a long-shot bet that a message of unity and optimism can still appeal in a party where many voters are hungry for a bare-knuckled fight. This report produced by Freddie Joyner.
Futures edge higher on hopes of debt deal
  + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
SummarySummary Companies Futures up: Dow 0.10%, S&P 0.13%, Nasdaq 0.14%May 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Friday on optimism that a deal to avoid a catastrophic U.S. debt default could be reached over the weekend. ET, Dow e-minis were up 32 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 5.5 points, or 0.13%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 20 points, or 0.14%. S&P 500 futures hit a 15-week high in early trading, while Nasdaq e-minis breached levels not seen in nine months. The benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX) and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) were set for their best weekly performance since late March amid positive debt ceiling talks, less-than-feared earnings and economic data. Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju SamuelOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
WASHINGTON, May 18 (Reuters) - President Joe Biden and Republican U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have voiced growing confidence about striking a debt-ceiling deal to avoid a catastrophic default, but they could be tripped up by last-minute opposition from the hardline House Freedom Caucus. We need something that's going to work," said Representative Chip Roy, a prominent Freedom Caucus member. Freedom Caucus members are demanding greater spending austerity than some Democrats will accept. Something tepid won't do," said Representative Dan Bishop, a Freedom Caucus member. "There should be no further discussion until the Senate passes the legislation," the Freedom Caucus statement said.
LAKE CHARLES, La., May 18 (Reuters) - In Washington, Republican U.S. Representative Clay Higgins has been a vocal advocate for spending cuts. As a member of the hard-right Freedom Caucus, Higgins was an early advocate for dramatic spending cuts, many of which ended up in the House bill. He hopes the spending cuts backed by Higgins won't affect local efforts to provide affordable housing. When it comes to spending, Higgins has been a solid "no" in Washington. For some local residents, Higgins' push for spending cuts in the face of so much need remains incomprehensible.
The majority of those bills specifically affect transgender people, touching on nearly every aspect of a transgender person's public life. And the vulnerability of most Republican state legislators right now is in the primary, if at all," Allen said. The bill he signed on Wednesday also adds obstacles for transgender adults and grants courts jurisdiction in child custody battles in some cases involving gender-affirming care. Demonstrators swarmed the Texas House, leading lawmakers to send a bill banning gender-affirming care back to committee. In Montana, protests contributed to the censure of transgender state Representative Zooey Zephyr, who was banned from the state House floor by Republican legislators.
LAKE CHARLES, La., May 18 (Reuters) - In Washington, Republican U.S. Representative Clay Higgins has been a vocal advocate for spending cuts. As a member of the hard-right Freedom Caucus, Higgins was an early advocate for dramatic spending cuts, many of which ended up in the House bill. He hopes the spending cuts backed by Higgins won't affect local efforts to provide affordable housing. When it comes to spending, Higgins has been a solid "no" in Washington. For some local residents, Higgins' push for spending cuts in the face of so much need remains incomprehensible.
WASHINGTON, May 17 (Reuters) - A group of bipartisan U.S. lawmakers introduced legislation Wednesday to bar automakers from eliminating AM broadcast radio in their new vehicles citing safety concerns. Democratic Senator Edward Markey, one of the sponsors of the bill, said at least eight automakers have removed AM broadcast radio from their electric vehicles including Tesla (TSLA.O) BMW (BMWG.DE), Ford (F.N) and Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE). The bill would direct the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to issue regulations to mandate AM radio in new vehicles without additional charge. Lawmakers say losing AM radio undermines a federal system for delivering key public safety information to the public. Reporting by David ShepardsonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The opulent hotel with a soaring clock tower, located on Pennsylvania Avenue between the White House and the U.S. Capitol, opened shortly before Trump was elected in 2016. The hotel became a gathering spot for Trump supporters, lobbyists and foreign dignitaries, who Democrats and watchdog groups complained could patronize the hotel in order to curry favor with Trump when he was in office. Lawsuits accused Trump of violating the U.S. Constitution's anti-corruption provisions by maintaining ownership of his businesses including the Washington hotel while in office. The justices ordered those cases dismissed because they became moot with Trump leaving office in 2021 after his election loss to Biden, a Democrat. Some of the lawmakers who sued are no longer part of the committee while some others are no longer in Congress.
Bolivian leader open to using yuan for trade, touting 'trend'
  + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
LA PAZ, May 10 (Reuters) - Bolivia's president expressed openness to the use of the Chinese yuan for international trade during a press conference on Wednesday, citing similar moves by Argentina and Brazil to tap the Asian currency for transactions with China. International trade transactions tend to be priced in U.S. dollars, especially for major commodity markets like energy and grains, going back decades. Earlier in the year, China and Brazil moved to reduce the dominance of the greenback by signing a deal to set up yuan clearing arrangements that can facilitate bilateral trade. "In Latin America, we have always had a great influence from the United States... but today many countries have more foreign trade with China. Reporting by Daniel Ramos; Writing by Valentine Hilaire; Editing by David Alire GarciaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
"That combination of overclassification and then too many people having clearances has led us to this problem," Warner told a news conference. He said more than 4 million people in the United States now have security clearance. Attorney General Merrick Garland has also appointed special counsels to investigate the handling of classified records by Republican former President Donald Trump and the handling of classified records from his time as vice president by current Democratic President Joe Biden. The path forward for the bills was not immediately clear but the senators said they hoped the recent attention on the clearance issue would help. "This is a piece of legislation that can become law and it is desperately needed for that to happen," Moran said.
NEW YORK, May 10 (Reuters) - Republican U.S. Representative George Santos, who has resisted calls to resign for lying about his resume, was charged with fraud, money laundering and theft of public funds, the Justice Department said in a statement on Wednesday. He was expected to appear later in the day at a federal court in New York. Reporting by Karen Freifeld in New York Sarah N. Lynch in Washington; Editing by Scott Malone and Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
NEW YORK, May 10 (Reuters) - Republican U.S. Representative George Santos, who has resisted calls to resign for lying about his resume, was charged with fraud, money laundering and theft of public funds, the Justice Department said in a statement on Wednesday. He was expected to appear later in the day at a federal court in New York. An Associated Press reporter who reached him by phone Tuesday quoted Santos as saying: "This is news to me. Among other claims, Santos said he had degrees from New York University and Baruch College, despite neither institution's having any record of his attending. Santos, who identifies as gay, also failed to disclose that he was married to a woman for several years ending in 2019.
George Santos said to face federal charges: CNN
  + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Reuters Editorial | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
PoliticsGeorge Santos said to face federal charges: CNNPostedU.S. federal prosecutors have filed criminal charges against George Santos, the embattled Republican U.S. congressman who has admitted to lying about his resume but defied calls to step down, CNN reported on Tuesday, citing three sources. Ryan Brooks reports.
Crypto imploded in 2022, as investors lost faith in digital assets and the industry was plagued with crisis. But unlike other collapses, it has largely avoided rippling into other markets. Illustration: Mallory BranganA former Coinbase employee was sentenced to two years in prison for his role in what federal prosecutors called the first-ever insider-trading case involving cryptocurrency. Ishan Wahi , 32 years old, previously pleaded guilty in a New York federal court to two counts of conspiracy to commit wire fraud for tipping off his brother and a friend to confidential information that he gained at his job at the crypto exchange. The tip recipients, co-defendants in the case, used the information to trade on digital tokens, making nearly $1.5 million in profits, according to federal prosecutors from the Manhattan U.S. attorney’s office.
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