Deutsche expects default rates to peak in the fourth quarter of next year.
It forecast peak default rates to reach 9% for U.S. high-yield debt, 11.3% for U.S. loans, 4.4% for European high-yield bonds and 7.3% for European loans.
The estimate for a U.S. loan peak default rate of 11.3% would be a near all-time high, compared to a peak of 12% during the 2007-2008 global financial crisis and 7.7% during the U.S. technology bubble in the late 1990s, Deutsche noted.
Within the European high-yield bond market, real estate was the sector facing the greatest pressure and accounted for over half of all European high-yield distressed debt, Deutsche said.
Still, that would not prevent a base case of rising default rates, Deutsche said.
Persons:
Chiara Elisei, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sharon Singleton
Organizations:
Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, U.S, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson
Locations:
United States, Europe, Germany, U.S