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Private sector hiring decelerated in March, flashing another potential sign that U.S. economic growth is heading for a sharp slowdown or recession, payroll processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. Company payrolls rose by just 145,000 for the month, down from an upwardly revised 261,000 in February and below the Dow Jones estimate for 210,000. The ADP report serves as a precursor to Friday's nonfarm payrolls report from the Labor Department. ADP changed its methodology last year, and its count on average was about 100,000 less per month than the government's in 2022. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect Friday's report to show payroll growth of 238,000 in March and the unemployment rate holding at 3.6%.
But manufacturers across the eurozone have reported business activity has been falling for nine months since June 2022 according to purchasing managers’ surveys. U.S. manufacturers have reported business activity has been falling for five months since November 2022 according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)’s purchasing survey. But the deficit had narrowed from 63 million barrels (-15% or -2.05 standard deviations) at the end of June 2022, according to data from Euroilstock. U.S. distillate fuel oil inventories were 18 million barrels (-14% or -1.08 standard deviations) below the prior 10-year seasonal average on March 31. In Singapore, distillate inventories have risen in 12 of the 15 most recent weeks by a total of 3 million barrels, according to data from Enterprise Singapore.
Gold prices ease as US dollar regains some ground
  + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
April 4 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday as a steady dollar made bullion more expensive for overseas buyers, while softer U.S. economic data heightened expectations of less-aggressive moves by the Federal Reserve. FUNDAMENTALS* Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,962.36 per ounce, as of 0103 GMT. * Gold prices had dropped on Monday after a surprise cut in OPEC+ crude production was announced during the weekend. But prices reversed course to rally 1% as the dollar stumbled following the release of softer U.S. economic data. * SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.22% to 930.04 tonnes on Monday from 928.02 tonnes on Friday.
Oil prices steady as investor focus shifts to demand outlook
  + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Oil prices steadied in early Asian trade on Tuesday after OPEC+ plans to cut more production jolted markets the previous day, with investors' attention shifting to demand trends and the impact of higher prices on the global economy. The latest pledges bring the total volume of cuts by OPEC+ to 3.66 million bpd including a 2 million barrel cut last October, according to Reuters calculations — equal to about 3.7% of global demand. "In the short term, demand is expected to rise for the summer driving season, but higher oil prices may intensify inflationary pressures and prolong interest rate hikes in many countries, which could dampen demand," he said. The OPEC+ production curbs led most analysts to raise their Brent oil price forecasts to around $100 per barrel by year-end. The news, however, added to investor worries about higher costs for businesses and consumers, raising fears that an inflationary jolt to the world economy from rising oil prices will result in more rate hikes.
Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday, with investor attention shifting to demand trends and the impact of higher prices on the global economy. Energy firms Chevron Corp (CVX.N), Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) and Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY.N) were set to extend gains, rising between 0.5% and 0.9% premarket. Among stocks, Virgin Orbit Holdings Inc (VORB.O) tanked 25% after the satellite launch company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on failing to secure long-term funding. Etsy Inc (ETSY.O) gained 3.8% after Piper Sandler upgraded the consumer e-commerce platform's stock to "overweight". Reporting by Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Oil prices steadied with investors' attention shifting to demand trends and the impact of higher prices on the global economy. Gold prices dropped on Monday after a surprise cut in OPEC+ crude production was announced over the weekend. Bullion is seen as a hedge against inflation, but higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. "If we are right, this should send the dollar lower and clear the 'runway' for an additional move higher." Spot silver slipped 0.5% to $23.88 per ounce, platinum eased 0.1% to $984.99 and palladium ticked 0.1% lower to $1,458.42.
Companies Goldman Sachs Group Inc FollowBEIJING, April 4 (Reuters) - Oil prices posted gains in Asian trade on Tuesday after OPEC+ plans to cut more production jolted markets the previous day, with investors' attention shifting to demand trends and the impact of higher prices on the global economy. The latest pledges bring the total volume of cuts by OPEC+ to 3.66 million bpd including a 2 million barrel cut last October, according to Reuters calculations - equal to about 3.7% of global demand. "In the short term, demand is expected to rise for the summer driving season, but higher oil prices may intensify inflationary pressures and prolong interest rate hikes in many countries, which could dampen demand," he said. The OPEC+ production curbs led most analysts to raise their Brent oil price forecasts to around $100 per barrel by year-end. "But for anything more than that something has to change dramatically from the demand side of the equation," he added.
Dollar slides on sluggish US data, Aussie steadies ahead of RBA
  + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Against the sliding dollar, the British pound and the Australian and New Zealand dollars rose to multi-week highs in early Asia trade on Tuesday. The kiwi rose 0.2% to $0.6310, its highest since mid-February, while the U.S. dollar index was marginally lower at 102.02, having fallen more than 0.5% on Monday. "The closest thing we get to good news in (the) report is that the slowing in the factory sector is pushing prices lower and supply chains are continuing to heal, benefiting from the slack. The RBA will pause policy tightening according to a poll of analysts, although a strong minority still forecast a hike. Data out last week showed Australian inflation slowed to an eight-month low in February, due in part to a sharp retreat in prices for holiday travel and accommodation.
[1/2] A passerby walks past an electric monitor displaying recent movements of various stock prices outside a bank in Tokyo, Japan, March 22, 2023. An announcement on Sunday of output target cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, propelled oil prices higher and complicated the inflation outlook. Early in the Asian day, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was trading steady. Japan's Nikkei stock index (.N225) rose 0.24% while Australian shares (.AXJO) were up 0.1%. On Monday, gains in energy shares helped lift world stock indexes following the surprise OPEC+ group's new production cuts that could push oil prices toward $100 a barrel.
April 5 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. Rates markets no longer expect the Fed to raise rates again and are pricing in 75 basis points of easing this year. But falling yields and increased rate cut expectations are not supporting stocks and risk assets - recession fears are growing. Australian policymakers said they want time to assess the impact of past increases as the economy slows and inflation peaks. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
It has slipped to levels consistent with the onset of the last four recessions in 2020, 2008, 2001 and 1990, implying the manufacturing sector is experiencing a cyclical slump even if there is still momentum in services. But the manufacturing and freight downturn is already depressing domestic consumption of diesel and other distillate fuel oils, the most cyclically sensitive part of the petroleum market. Consumption of diesel and other distillate fuel oils has been falling since the second quarter of 2022, in line with the slowdown in manufacturing and freight activity. The volume of distillate fuel oil supplied to the domestic market was down -4.4% in the three months from November to January compared with the same period a year earlier. Related columns:- U.S. diesel consumption falls as economy slows (March 1, 2023)- U.S. manufacturers flounder amid cost-of-living shock (February 15, 2023)- U.S. manufacturing downturn will cut diesel consumption (January 5, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that its manufacturing PMI fell to 46.3 last month, the lowest reading since May 2020, from 47.7 in February. It was the fifth straight month that the PMI remained below the 50 threshold, which indicates contraction in manufacturing. Reports last month also showed orders for capital goods excluding aircraft eking out a small gain in February as did manufacturing output. But it noted that manufacturing depending on bank credit also "tend to have larger firms that other things equal will have an easier time finding alternative sources of capital." The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index fell to 44.3 last month from 47.0 in February.
President Joe Biden touted efforts to boost U.S. manufacturing after touring a Cummins facility in Minnesota on Monday, as the company announced it will invest $1 billion in making cleaner engines. Cummins intends to invest the money in Indiana, North Carolina and New York, focusing on creating low-to-zero-carbon engines. More than half of medium and heavy-duty trucks in the U.S. use Cummins engines, and the upgraded facilities aim to decarbonize shipping vehicles across the country. Electrolyzers are needed to create clean hydrogen, used to power certain vehicles and in steel production. "All these investments mean that now if you grow up in Minnesota, if you go to school in Minnesota, you can stay in Minnesota," Biden said.
April 4 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. Australia's central bank takes center stage on Tuesday with its latest interest rate decision, and beyond that, if the second trading day of the quarter is as eventful as the first, then investors' plates will be extra full. chartchartInterest rate futures markets are attaching a near-90% probability to policymakers keeping the benchmark cash rate unchanged at 3.60%, putting the year-long hiking cycle on hold at least for now. Elsewhere in Asia on Tuesday, South Korea releases inflation figures for March. Japan's monetary base has actually been shrinking every month since September, on a year-on-year basis.
WASHINGTON—Semiconductor companies seeking U.S. grants under the Chips Act will be asked to provide detailed projections for revenue and profit from their new chip-making plants to help evaluate their applications, the Commerce Department said Monday. The Chips Act provides $53 billion to help restore U.S. manufacturing might in semiconductors. Companies building leading-edge chip factories in the U.S. can begin applying for the funds Friday. The application process for companies looking to build current generation and mature technology facilities opens June 26.
Goldman's strategy to play the $3 trillion energy revolution
  + stars: | 2023-03-26 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
There's a $3 trillion energy revolution coming, and Goldman Sachs has a strategy to play it. Given this, here are some ways investors can play the new energy revolution: Solar and wind Overall, the biggest investments will be in renewable energy, according to the note. That means the U.S. will need to significantly ramp up its solar, wind and other renewable energy capabilities. Meanwhile, for General Electric , the IRA will directly benefit its portfolio of energy businesses, GE Vernova, including wind energy. Elsewhere, Goldman Sachs highlighted buy-rated Baker Hughes , saying it will get a boost from carbon capture and hydrogen projects.
Shares of major U.S. banks JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), Wells Fargo (WFC.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N) dropped more than 2% in premarket trade. Shares of regional lenders First Republic Bank (FRC.N), PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O), Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N) and Truist Financial Corp (TFC.N) fell between 2.1% and 2.8%. European banks also came under pressure, with a report of a U.S. probe on Credit Suisse and UBS (UBS.N) further souring the mood. ET, Dow e-minis were down 304 points, or 0.94%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 31.5 points, or 0.79%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 59 points, or 0.46%. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar and Ankika Biswas; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila and Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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A Biden Bait-and-Switch on Electric Vehicles
  + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( The Editorial Board | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., asks questions during a Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government hearing to examine proposed budget estimates and justification for the 2024 fiscal year at the Capitol in Washington on Wednesday, March 22, 2023. (AP Photo/Amanda Andrade-Rhoades)We interrupt the latest Donald Trump melodrama for a word from Biden Administration regulators. While the world isn’t watching, and certainly the press corps isn’t, regulators on Friday announced they are essentially rewriting last year’s Inflation Reduction Act so more electric vehicles will qualify for subsidies. In return for his vote, West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin insisted on numerous conditions for the IRA’s $7,500 EV tax credit. He wanted to encourage more U.S. manufacturing and ensure subsidies don’t go to the affluent.
Through recessions and economic booms, over decades of market volatility, only eight companies in the S & P 500 have hiked their annual dividends year-in and year-out for at least 60 years. It pays an annual dividend of $1.84 per share, and currently has a dividend yield of 3.07%, while the S & P 500's average dividend yield is 1.65%. Manufacturing company Stanley Black & Decker and food and beverage giant PepsiCo have raised their annual dividends for more than 50 years. ExxonMobil and Chevron have hiked their annual dividends for 40 and 36 years, respectively. Based on the current dividend rate, with no additional increases or decreases, Silverblatt expects cash payments for 2023 to increase 3.9% over 2022.
The unplanned increase in inventories and elevated ratio to sales has reached levels consistent with previous slowdowns in the manufacturing and freight cycle in 2018/19, 2015/16 and 2008/09. The ISM manufacturing orders index tumbled to a low of just 42.5 (6th percentile for all months since 1980) in January before recovering slightly to 47.0 (11th percentile) in February. Chartbook: U.S. inventories and freightReduced ordering has sharply cut the volume of freight handled through U.S. container ports and carried on railroads and by trucking firms. The freight slump is consistent with previous slowdowns in the manufacturing and freight cycle and implies the manufacturing sector is already in recession (“Freight transportation services index”, BTS, March 8, 2023). Manufacturers’ difficulties stand in contrast to the resilience displayed by the much larger services sector, where spending, prices, margins and employment are still increasingly rapidly.
REUTERS/Andrew Winning/File PhotoWASHINGTON, March 7 (Reuters) - Engineering company Siemens AG (SIEGn.DE) will announce on Tuesday it is investing over $220 million to build a rail car manufacturing facility in North Carolina, the White House and Siemens said. Busch said Siemens has a "strong foothold" in the market and sees longer term growth opportunities in high-speed rail. Siemens' rail unit will be receiving a jobs development grant from the state of North Carolina, the company said. Funding comes in part from the bipartisan infrastructure law passed in 2021, the White House said. The $1 trillion infrastructure law provides $66 billion for rail, an unprecedented boost in federal aid for trains.
The American manufacturing sector is starting to show signs of weakness after two years of strong growth, as higher interest rates and a slowdown in exports threaten production. New orders for manufactured goods contracted for the sixth straight month through February, according to surveys by the Institute for Supply Management. Manufacturing output is down 1.7% from its postpandemic peak in May 2022, according to a three-month moving average of Federal Reserve data. And the Commerce Department’s measure of civilian capital equipment orders, excluding aircraft—the building blocks of business—was down 3.4% in January from its recent high in November 2021, after adjusting for inflation.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPresident Xi is more powerful today than Mao ever was, says Dennis Unkovic of Meyer, Unkovic & ScottMichelle Caruso-Cabrera, a CNBC contributor, and Dennis Unkovic, partner at Meyer, Unkovic and Scott, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss the strength of China's global influence, U.S. manufacturing dependency on China and the fate of Taiwan.
US factory orders fall in January on civilian aircraft demand
  + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The Commerce Department said on Monday that factory orders dropped 1.6% after increasing 1.7% in December. Orders increased 4.3% on a year-on-year basis in January. The drop in factory orders in January mostly reflected a 13.3% decline in transportation equipment, which followed a 15.8% jump in December. Transportation equipment orders were weighed down by a 54.5% tumble in orders for civilian aircraft. Motor vehicle orders increased 1.3%.
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