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The tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) recovered after a weak open, boosted by 4% gains in Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) and Nvidia Corp (NVDA.O). Ten of the 11 major S&P sectors rose, with consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) and technology (.SPLRCT) leading the gains. "I don't think (this report) moves the needle for the Fed, and I suspect they're taking a hard look at the data. The rally, however, stalled last week on signs of a tight labor market and hawkish commentary from Fed policymakers. Money market traders have priced in at least two more 25 basis point rate hikes this year and see interest rates peaking at 5.2% by July.

☆ Dollar flat after Fed official comments; focus on CPI data next week
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. dollar steadied just below recent peaks on Wednesday, as investors waited to hear from the Federal Reserve and pondered whether weak U.S. data may slow the pace of rate hikes. Williams' comments followed Chair Jerome Powell's sticking by his interest rate outlook on Tuesday, when he reiterated that a process of "disinflation" was underway. The Japanese yen weakened 0.11% to 131.54 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2064, down 0.06% on the day. Market pricing anticipates the Fed funds rate peaking just above 5.1% by July then falling by the end of the year to 4.8%. Investor focus will now switch to the U.S. inflation data due next week on Tuesday.

Click to unmute A global city needs a global soundtrack, and in New York, you can find nearly anything you want. Over the past several months, we followed several New York musical scenes that reflect the city’s creative soul, thriving in community centers, local bars and public parks. The sight of a new generation encouraged Mr. Joseph, who sees the band as preserving traditional culture in the modern city. It becomes part of you.” New York itself is as much a player as any musician, transforming traditional tunes into something new. The people who embraced Mateo and his mother when they moved from Boston to New York in 2016 now consoled her.

☆ Gold eases as steady dollar, U.S. rate-hike outlook dent appeal
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

REUTERS/Alexander ManzyukGold prices edged lower on Thursday, as the dollar steadied and after U.S. Federal Reserve officials said more interest rate increases were likely to curb inflation. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,874.58 per ounce, as of 0054 GMT. Gold is sensitive to high interest rates which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.03% to 921.10 tonnes on Wednesday from 920.82 tonnes on Tuesday. Spot silver fell 0.1% to $22.28 per ounce, platinum was 0.3% lower at $966.85 and palladium eased 0.1% to $1,646.89.

☆ Dollar pulls back as Powell sticks to usual Fed playbook
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar struggled to recover its losses in Asia trade on Wednesday, after slipping in the previous session as Powell spoke. Similarly, the euro was last 0.04% higher at $1.0732, after falling to $1.06695 in the previous session, its lowest since Jan. 9. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index steadied at 103.31, after slipping 0.3% in the previous session. Futures pricing shows that markets are expecting the Fed funds rate to peak just above 5.1% by June. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen rose 0.16% to 130.88 per dollar, after surging 1.2% in the previous session.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has spoken and luckily for bulls and bears, there was something for everyone, so where Asian markets go on Wednesday is something a coin flip. With an expected interest rate rise in India taking center stage regionally, investors in Asia will be digesting the mixed U.S. picture that saw stocks rise but the dollar and Treasuries ease lower on Tuesday. But he also said "it will take some time" to get the inflation genie back in the 2% bottle. The Reserve Bank of India is likely to raise its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.50%, which most economists reckon will be the last of the hiking cycle. With the rupee within a whisker of October's record low, however, traders will be on RBI intervention alert.

☆ Morning Bid: Powell's state of the union
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Jerome Powell makes his first speech since the Fed's latest quarter-point interest rate rise last week. More importantly, it's his first chance to comment on Friday's seemingly blockbuster U.S. employment report for January. Perhaps just as significantly, they now price year-end Fed rates higher than the 4.5-4.75% range they are at right now. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic on Monday said of the jobs readout: "It'll probably mean we have to do a little more work." Investors will watch Biden's State of the Union with one eye on the potentially destabilising debt ceiling standoff with Congress.

☆ Asia shares slip, dollar up as U.S. rate outlook shifts
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Amamiya has been closely involved with the Bank of Japan's current super-easy policies and is considered by markets to be more dovish than some other contenders. In equity markets, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.7%, with South Korea (.KS11) down 1.0%. Likewise, yields on two-year Treasuries were now up at 4.35%, compared to 4.09% before the data, while 10-year yields climbed to 3.56%. Policy makers from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will also be making appearances. Higher rates, and thus yields, will stretch equity valuations and challenge the market's bullish outlook for assets including commodities.

☆ Morning bid: The morning after the night before
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Dour fourth-quarter results from Apple (AAPL.O), Google-parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O) and Amazon (AMZN.O) are likely to cast a shadow on the markets on Friday before the crucial non-farms payroll data is released later in the day. Analysts expect 185,000 jobs were added last month and the report will likely paint a clearer picture of the labour market in the United States. The meltdown in share prices have stoked fears of wider impact on the Indian equities. A bright spot for the market was a private sector survey that showed China's services activity in January expanded for the first time in five months, sending business confidence to near 12-year highs. Even amidst the dire earnings reports from U.S. bellwethers there was a hint of hope that consumer spending was beginning to rebound in China.

Combined gas inventories in the European Union and the United Kingdom were equivalent to 807 terawatt-hours (TWh) on Feb. 1, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. Stocks are projected to deplete to a post-winter low of 606 TWh (with a range from 468 TWh to 705 TWh), slightly down from a projection of 617 TWh (487-733 TWh) on Jan. 22. Chartbook: Europe gas stocks and pricesNorthwest Europe is more than 60% of the way through the heating season so there is increasing visibility about the likely carryout. But overall Europe’s gas inventories remain exceptionally high for the time of year, which has kept a lid on prices and spreads despite the drop in temperatures. Europe’s gas stocks at seasonal record high(Reuters, January 17, 2023)- Europe's gas prices slump to moderate storage build (Reuters, January 4, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

☆ Gold steadies after steep sell-off, but bound for weekly drop
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold bullion bars are pictured after being inspected and polished at the ABC Refinery in Sydney on August 5, 2020. Gold prices steadied on Friday after a sharp sell-off in the previous session, as traders digested rate-hike remarks from global central banks, but the metal was set for its first weekly drop in seven amid a strong dollar. Therefore, it may trigger some near-term profit-taking, "but for gold prices, a greater conviction for sellers could be a break below the $1,895 level, where dip-buyers were seen stepping in this week just before the meeting," the analyst added. Gold prices have gained about $300 since November on expectations of softer rate hikes from the U.S. central bank, as a lower interest rate environment reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, was up 0.1%, keeping a leash on gold prices.

☆ Stocks firm, dollar on edge ahead of Fed decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed will announce its rate decision at 1900 GMT, followed by a news conference with Chair Jerome Powell half an hour later. Currency trade has been in a holding pattern ahead of the Fed and Bank of England and European Central Bank meetings that follow on Thursday. But the U.S. wages data wiped out some small dollar gains made earlier this week amid some nerves that the Fed sticks to its hawkish stance. United Parcel Service (UPS.N), the world's biggest package delivery firm, beat forecasts and shares rose 4.7%. Prices for dollar bonds in Adani Group companies were steadying in Asia trade on Wednesday after last week's rout.

☆ Oil steadies after falling on rate hike worries, Russian crude flows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Laila Kearney | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies OPEC+ seen sticking with oil output policy at Feb. 1 meetingRussian oil supply appears to remain strongInvestors watch for central bank rate hikesJan 31 (Reuters) - Oil prices steadied in early Asian trade on Tuesday after falling by more than 2% in the previous session on the threat of further interest rate hikes and continued Russian crude flows. Brent crude futures gained 28 cents to $85.18 per barrel by 0155 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 9 cents to $77.99. The panel is expected to recommend keeping the oil producer group's current output policy unchanged when it meets this week, five OPEC+ delegates told Reuters on Monday. Lending some support to oil prices, the U.S. dollar index has fallen by 1.3% in January so far. Reporting by Laila Kearney in New York; Editing by Jamie FreedOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The first scenario is consistent with a recession starting in early 2023, the second with a recession deferred until late 2023 or early 2024 when inflation and interest rate rises induce a slowdown. CYCLICAL EXTREMESDuring a typical economic cycle, output growth alternates between expansions well above the long-term trend rate and contractions well below trend; growth is close to trend only for relatively short periods. Distillate inventories are unlikely to be replenished without a recession or at least a significant mid-cycle slowdown to curb consumption. UNPALATABLE CHOICESIn the first scenario, the global economy tips into recession, cutting distillate consumption, boosting inventories and lowering prices. From this starting position, an early recession, or persistent inflation followed by a recession, are much more likely outcomes than a soft landing in 2023.

☆ Dollar near eight-month low ahead of c.bank meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The dollar lolled near an eight-month low against its peers on Thursday, as a gloomy U.S. corporate earnings season stoked recession fears and as traders stayed on guard ahead of a slew of central bank meetings next week. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, last stood at 101.53, languishing near last week's eight-month trough of 101.51. "There are now signs the U.S. economy may be slowing in a more meaningful manner," said economists at Wells Fargo. "With the Fed no longer leading the charge on interest rate hikes and U.S. economic trends set to worsen, we now believe the U.S. dollar has entered a period of cyclical depreciation against most foreign currencies." Markets expect policymakers at the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB), who will also meet next week, to deliver 50 bp rate hikes.

☆ UK's Hunt pledges to boost growth but won't budge on tax hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] British Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt leaves his house in London, Britain, November 16, 2022. REUTERS/Toby MelvilleLONDON, Jan 26 (Reuters) - British finance minister Jeremy Hunt will promise on Friday to tackle the country's weak productivity with post-Brexit finance reforms to boost growth, but he will also stick to the tax rises that have angered some lawmakers in his Conservative Party. Hunt, who steadied financial markets after the turmoil of former Prime Minister Liz Truss' "mini-budget" in September last year, is preparing to announce a plan for growth in a budget statement in March. The Telegraph newspaper said Hunt would reject calls from some Conservative lawmakers to bring forward tax cuts as a way to spur growth. Earlier on Thursday, Hunt told fellow ministers that he had to stick to the fiscal discipline he outlined in November in order to help reduce inflation which is running above 10%, according to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's office.

☆ Dollar near eight-month low ahead of central bank meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar kept trade-sensitive currencies pinned near multi-year lows on Monday and the euro was under pressure as investors sought safety due to worries about slowing global growth. The dollar lolled near an eight-month low against its peers on Thursday, as a gloomy U.S. corporate earnings season stoked recession fears and as traders stayed on guard ahead of a slew of central bank meetings next week. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, last stood at 101.53, languishing near last week's eight-month trough of 101.51. Markets expect policymakers at the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB), who will also meet next week, to deliver 50-bp rate hikes. Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar last traded at 1.3393 per dollar, after the Bank of Canada on Wednesday raised its key interest rate to 4.5% but became the first major central bank fighting global inflation to say it would likely hold off on further increases for now.

☆ Aussie jumps, kiwi slumps after inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 25 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar jumped to a more than five-month high on Wednesday after inflation data came in hotter than expected, while the kiwi slipped after New Zealand's fourth-quarter inflation rose less than what its central bank had forecast. The euro held near a nine-month peak against the dollar, as traders weighed a rosier growth outlook for the euro zone sagainst growing signs of a looming U.S. recession. Meanwhile, the kiwi slid nearly 0.6% to $0.6469, after New Zealand's annual inflation of 7.2% in the fourth quarter came in below its central bank's 7.5% forecast. Data on Tuesday showed that euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January, indicating the downturn in the bloc may not be as deep as feared. Policymakers are committed to taming inflation, but are split on the size of moves beyond February's likely half-a-percentage point increase.

☆ Oil prices extend gains on optimism over China's fuel demand recovery
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Yuka Obayashi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary OPEC says Chinese oil demand to rebound in 2023 after dropU.S. shale oil output set to rise in Feb to record -EIARussia sees sanctions impact on oil products -senior sourceTOKYO, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Wednesday, extending the previous session's gains, driven by optimism that a relaxation of China's strict COVID-19 curbs will lead to a recovery in fuel demand in the world's top oil importer. China's gross domestic product expanded 3% in 2022, missing the official target of "around 5.5%" and marking its second-worst performance since 1976. But OPEC kept its 2023 global demand growth forecast unchanged at 2.22 million bpd. "Growing hopes that China's fuel demand will pick up after a recent shift in its COVID-19 policy lent support to oil prices," said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities Co Ltd."OPEC's optimistic outlook on China's demand also supported the market sentiment," he said, predicting a bullish tone for this week. Russia, meanwhile, expects Western sanctions to have a significant impact on its oil product exports and its production, likely leaving it more crude oil to sell, said a senior Russian source with knowledge of the nation's outlook.

☆ Dollar steady, yen slips as traders brace for BOJ policy decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar steadied on Wednesday, while the yen slipped as investors eagerly awaited the Bank of Japan's policy decision, which could set the stage for Tokyo to end its ultra-easy monetary policy. Since then, speculation has swirled that the BOJ was likely to tweak its yield curve control (YCC) policy further. The Japanese yen weakened 0.56% versus the greenback at 128.83 per dollar on Wednesday, easing off the seven month high of 127.25 it touched on Monday. The dollar index , which measures the safe-haven dollar against six peers, was flat at 102.400. The Australian dollar fell 0.04% at $0.698, while the kiwi rose 0.03% versus the U.S. currency at $0.643.

☆ Yen perched near 7-month high as BOJ decision looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A bundle of Japanese 10,000 yen banknotes on a tray arranged at a branch of Resona Bank Ltd. in Tokyo, Japan. The dollar drifted up from multi-month lows on Tuesday, while the yen was perched near seven-month highs as investors held their breath for a potential policy shift at the Bank of Japan. The yen rose 3% against the dollar last week, and one-week implied volatility for dollar/yen is at its highest since March 2020. "The yen would explode higher, Japanese government bond yields would explode higher and global yields would go higher," he said. The New Zealand dollar held at $0.6394.

☆ Analysis: Bond traders get their swagger back in rate-obsessed markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Lananh Nguyen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Andrew KellyNEW YORK, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Bond traders are stars again on Wall Street. Fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) traders bolstered bank profits last year despite dreary deal markets. Bond specialists in the $22 trillion Treasuries market are in high demand as the Federal Reserve and other central banks have aggressively raised interest rates over the past two years. After the financial crisis, central bankers in the United States and advanced economies steadied markets by holding interest rates near zero. On Tradeweb Markets Inc's (TW.O) electronic bond trading platforms, average daily volumes rose almost 10% in 2022.

☆ Gold steadies near 9-month peak on hopes of slower Fed rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A five hundred gram gold bar, left, and a a one kilogram gold bar, produced by Swiss manufacturer Argor Hebaeus SA, in Budapest, Hungary. Gold prices steadied after climbing to their highest in nearly nine months on Monday, as a softer dollar and expectations of slower interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve added to bullion's shine. Earlier in the session, prices hit $1,929 per ounce, a peak since late April. "The growing adoption of green energy sources continues to favor fabrication demand for silver ... Silver bar and coin demand continued to be high," ANZ said in a note. "We expect silver to perform well, in tandem with gold, as investors look for cheaper alternatives to gold."

☆ The bold bullish case to be made for U.S. stocks — one that not many are voicing just yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-14 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

There's a bullish case on stocks that's not gained much traction yet. With another 4%-5% upside in the S & P 500 , the thesis would demand serious attention. A Fed pause? But this time, the S & P 500 had fallen 20% by the time the 10-to-2-year Treasury curve inverted, whereas in past cycles stocks were near a high. The S & P 500 probably needs to reach 4300 — up another 7.5% — to make a solid case for the bear market being over, says John Kolovos of Macro Risk Advisors.

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