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After the dollar rose to 151.94 yen , its highest since 1990, the intervention drove the Japanese currency down more than 7 yen to a low of 144.50 yen. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThe Ministry of Finance (MOF) intervened in several stages from around 9:35 p.m. (1235 GMT), one source said. Speaking to reporters shortly after the yen spiked, Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, declined to comment on whether the MOF had intervened, according to Jiji news agency. Many market players doubt whether Tokyo can reverse the yen's downtrend with solo intervention, even with Japan's $1.33 trillion in foreign reserves. Japan bought a record 3.6 trillion yen ($24 billion) in the September action, Tokyo money market brokerage firms estimated.
Kanda, vice finance minister for international affairs, said he will not comment on whether Japan was intervening now or have stepped into the currency market earlier on Thursday. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki also told reporters after the yen's latest slide that he will "take decisive action" against excessive, sharp yen moves. "We cannot tolerate excessive, rapid currency market moves driven by speculative action," Suzuki said. The yen's break of 150 against the dollar took it to its weakest level since August 1990. The BOJ, for its part, ramped up efforts to defend its 0% bond yield cap earlier on Thursday with offers of emergency bond buying.
The break above the key milestone heightens pressure for Tokyo to step into the currency market again to rein in the yen's relentless decline, which is adding to the country's already swelling import bill. "We cannot tolerate excessive, rapid currency market moves driven by speculative action," Suzuki said. The BOJ, for its part, ramped up efforts to defend its 0% bond yield cap earlier on Thursday with offers of emergency bond buying. The Ministry of Finance's dollar-selling, yen-buying intervention last month was the first time authorities had acted in the markets to prop up the yen since 1998. The yen's tumble below 150 against the dollar on Thursday took it to its weakest level since August 1990, keeping investors on high alert to the possibility of another Japanese intervention in the currency market.
The central bank's step underscores the dilemma Tokyo faces in trying to contain unwelcome yen falls, without resorting to interest rate hikes that could derail Japan's fragile recovery. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"Recent rapid and one-sided yen declines are undesirable. "We will continue to take appropriate steps against excess volatility, while watching currency market developments with a strong sense of urgency," he said. The government, which holds jurisdiction over currency policy, spent 2.8 trillion yen ($19 billion) in dollar-selling, yen-buying intervention last month when authorities acted in the markets to prop up the yen for the first time since 1998. The BOJ is widely expected to maintain its massive stimulus programme at its next two-day policy meeting ending Oct. 28.
Oil prices mixed amid uncertain demand, supply concerns
  + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Emily Chow | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File PhotoSINGAPORE, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Oil prices were mixed on Thursday as investors balanced caution over tightening supply against concerns that a global slowdown could curb demand. "Oil prices are being whipsawed by a number of drivers in Q4 2022," said Commonwealth Bank commodities analyst Vivek Dhar in a note. Upward pressure though is coming from OPEC+ supply cuts and imminent EU sanctions on seaborne imports of Russian oil and refined production." Global recession concerns and the potential for another aggressive U.S. rate hike were clouding the outlook for oil prices, said CMC Markets analyst Leon Li. "Therefore, oil prices would return to a downtrend after a short-term rebound," he said.
We absolutely cannot tolerate excessively volatile moves driven by speculative trading," Suzuki told parliament on Thursday. "We will continue to take appropriate steps against excess volatility, while watching currency market developments with a strong sense of urgency," he said. Markets are on high alert on whether Japan will intervene in the currency market again as the yen falls near the key psychological barrier of 150 to the dollar. The government, which holds jurisdiction over currency policy, spent 2.8 trillion yen ($19 billion) in dollar-selling, yen-buying intervention last month when authorities acted in the markets to prop up the yen for the first time since 1998. The BOJ is widely expected to maintain its massive stimulus programme at its next two-day policy meeting ending in Oct. 28.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBrian Sullivan's RBI: A rare moment in history for stocks and bondsBrian Sullivan's daily RBI segment on Worldwide Exchange focuses on the five years in history that the S&P 500 and the 10-Year Bond have simultaneously experienced a downtrend.
Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda also repeated his usual line that stability in the foreign exchange market was "extremely important", characterising the yen's recent softening as sharp and one-sided. The comments came as the yen traded near a 32-year trough to the dollar at 149 yen, putting the major psychological barrier of 150 in focus. "When looking at the global financial and economic environment surrounding Japan, downside risks are building up rapidly," Adachi said in the speech. "When downside risks are so high, we should be cautious of shifting toward monetary tightening," he said, warning that heightening external headwinds risked tipping Japan back to deflation.
The bond market splashes some cold water on the stock market's attempt at upside follow-through to Monday's strong but familiar one-day pop. It happened just as the S & P 500 revisited the "island" left by its early-October rally. The October high of 3,806 remains an initial mile-marker with tests all the way up to the 200-day average around 4,150. This is a precondition for a serious rally that challenges the entrenched downtrend, but not in itself enough to make one happen. It's good to have a high wall of worry for stocks to climb, barring serious market instability.
Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. With a strong push from Japan, finance leaders of the Group of Seven advanced economies included a phrase in a statement on Wednesday saying they will closely monitor "recent volatility" in markets. "Many countries saw the need for vigilance to the spill-over effect of global monetary tightening, and mentioned currency moves in that context. "I've said on many occasions that I think a market-determined value for the dollar is in America's interest. "It's impossible to reverse the yen's downtrend with solo intervention," said Daisaku Ueno, chief forex strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.
We can at least run through what we know about this market and how market cycles tend to unfold more generally. Fewer individual S & P 500 stocks made a new 52-week low than in mid-June even as the index itself undercut the June low, a modest positive glimmer. The prior extreme lows on this chart were near noteworthy market lows, if not always right at them. The Stock Trader's Almanac notes that of the 23 S & P 500 bear markets since World War II, seven ended in October. The S & P 500 has failed in four tries of since late August even to get above the short-term 20-day moving average, most recently on Friday.
Mark Haefele said this week that he doesn't see a sustained rally in stocks. Stocks went on a face-ripping rally on Thursday, with the S&P 500 rising more than 4.2% after market open. In stocks, Haefele said these include defensive — or recession-proof — areas of the market like the consumer staples and healthcare sectors. He also said he likes UK value stocks, and value stocks around the world, with inflation and rates still elevated. Finally in stocks, Haefele is still bullish on the energy sector because of OPEC's recently-announced production cuts and what they should do to keep crude prices higher.
There's little reason for optimism in today's market, Lance Roberts laments. Just look at the barrage of headwinds facing stocks right now, the RIA Advisors CIO said in an October 10 commentary. At the start of this year, investing legend and founder of GMO Jeremy Grantham, said stocks were in their fourth superbubble in the last century given that market valuations had veered from historical norms so drastically. On Friday, Roberts told Insider that he agrees with Grantham's assessments, and that he sees the S&P 500 dropping to around 2,900. One of Wall Street's most bullish strategists this year, BMO's Brian Belski, cut his 2022 price target on the S&P 500 again on Friday to 4,200.
Inflation in the 12 months to mid-September hit 7.96%, well below the 8.14% forecast by economists, likely backing the central bank's recent decision of pausing its aggressive rate hiking cycle. Adding to energy state tax cuts announced earlier this year, oil giant Petroleo Brasileiro SA reduced refinery gate gasoline prices twice since mid-August, leading to lower prices at the pump. The inflation drop in September, however, was not widespread as prices fell in only three of the nine groups of products and services surveyed, IBGE said - communication, food and beverages, and transportation. The latest inflation data comes as Brazil's central bank last week chose to keep interest rates unchanged at 13.75%, pausing an aggressive tightening after 12 consecutive increases aimed at curbing high inflation. William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said the inflation figures confirmed that the monetary tightening cycle was over.
Inflation expectations have been falling since the spring, signaling there's little chance of a 1980s-like price surge. Inflation expectations may seem like simple forecasts, but their effects on the economy can be dramatic. Anchored inflation expectations can put downward pressure on price growth as consumers reject large price hikes and businesses are pushed to compete with each other. Powell on Wednesday pointed to well-anchored inflation expectations as a boon, but noted the trend "is not grounds for complacency." "The longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched," the chair said.
REUTERS/Florence Lo/IllustrationTOKYO, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Japan likely won't intervene in the currency market to defend a line-in-the-sand such as 145 yen versus the dollar, and instead limit any further action to smoothing operations aimed at taming volatility, former top currency diplomat Naoyuki Shinohara said. After the dollar's spike to near 146 yen, Japan intervened in the currency market on Thursday to buy yen for the first time since 1998. The dollar slid to near 140 yen shortly after Thursday's intervention, but bounced back above 143 yen by Friday. Tokyo's intervention came shortly after the yen's dive triggered by the BOJ's decision to keep ultra-low rates, and governor Haruhiko Kuroda's post-meeting comments that rates likely won't rise for several more years. The yen's downtrend will be hard to reverse as long as the BOJ maintains ultra-low rates, Shinohara said.
This year's global economic outlook was "gloomy," but it'll get worse in 2023 unless inflation gets under control. IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said the world's economy would still be recovering from shock after shock next year. Central banks will have no choice but to raise rates, as inflation is the "biggest enemy," she said. That spells trouble for the global economy, Georgieva said, calling painful food and energy price spirals around the globe a "cost of living crisis." Other central banks around the world have "no choice" but to follow suit, Georgieva said, who called inflation was the global economy's "biggest enemy" today.
Storage tanks are seen at Marathon Petroleum's Los Angeles Refinery, which processes domestic & imported crude oil into California Air Resources Board (CARB) gasoline, CARB diesel fuel, and other petroleum products, in Carson, California, U.S., March 11, 2022. REUTERS/Bing Guan/File PhotoSINGAPORE, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Oil prices steadied on Tuesday after rising in the previous sessionon concerns that further U.S. interest rate hikes this week to tame inflation will curb economic growth and fuel demand in the world's biggest oil consumer. U.S. crude oil stocks are estimated to have risen last week by around 2 million barrels in the week to Sept. 16, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. read moreSigns that major producers are unable to meet their output quotas did give prices some support. read moreHowever, they are signs that higher oil prices this year are curbing demand.
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. Once again, nothing happening now is incompatible with this being a prolonged, messy bottoming effort longer term. Are equities still "too expensive" with bond yields here, the 10-year neat 3.5%? The S & P index, maybe, at 16.5x, with some cross-asset models saying it should be one or two multiple points cheaper. VIX getting puffed up 24 hours ahead of the Fed decision, near 27, mechanical stuff.
Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterUnder-construction apartments are pictured from a building during sunset in the Shekou area of Shenzhen, Guangdong province, China November 7, 2021. REUTERS/David KirtonBEIJING, Sept 19 (Reuters) - In the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen, where the real estate sector has slowed, luxury property is bucking the downtrend, the official Securities Times reported on Monday, as wealthy buyers seek a safe haven amid a weak market. With the units ranging in size to up to 425 square meters, that suggests some could have reached values of $9.8 million. But new luxury homes are still popular with buyers, who see them as "hard currency" in a feeble property market, the newspaper cited industry insiders as saying. ($1 = 7.0176 Chinese yuan renminbi)Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Liangping Gao and Ryan Woo; Editing by Jan HarveyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The most recent sell-off in stocks is almost over, according to JPMorgan. The bank said as inflation expectations moderate, risk assets like stocks should will slow their descent. "We see potential for a strong rally whenever the macro picture turns less negative," JPMorgan said. But that doesn't mean stock prices can't buck their current downtrend and rally from here, according to the note. Additionally, low investor positioning and moderation in long-term inflation expectations should help boost stock prices.
Falling gas prices offset rising costs of food, new cars, and heating, according to the report. The gas-price index fell 10.6%, and average prices seen through early September signal the downtrend will last into the fall. Though that's slower than the 1.1% increase seen in July, it signals inflation is still running strong in some of the most important corners of the economy. That marked an uptick from the 5.9% year-over-year rate seen in July. The hotter-than-expected reading tees the Federal Reserve up for another jumbo-sized interest rate increase when officials meet later in September.
That would be one plausible explanation behind the great box office slowdown. Although three new movies opened nationwide, none were able to crack the top five on domestic charts and only two -- A24's satirical slasher "Bodies Bodies Bodies" and Lionsgate's vertigo-inducing thriller "Fall" -- managed to infiltrate the top 10. After two weeks on the big screen, the Brad Pitt-led "Bullet Train" has generated $54.4 million at the domestic box office. In eighth place, "Bodies Bodies Bodies" beat expectations with $3.2 million from 1,290 locations. That means "Maverick" is roughly $5 million away from dethroning Marvel's "Avengers: Infinity War" as the sixth-highest grossing movie in domestic box office history.
Gold price appears set for a decline
  + stars: | 2018-09-25 | by ( Daryl Guppy | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
We suggested in August that traders who went short gold in May were beginning to consider covering their short positions. When the gold price rebounds, it tends to do so rapidly without any consolidation activity. The gold price is characterized by trend rebounds from pivot point lows. Evidence of a potential pivot point rally rebound includes two features. Traders who covered shorts as the consolidation developed will now look to open short position again if the price dips below $1,180.
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